Table 5.
Multivariable adjusted association of changes in BMI from baseline to 1- and 4-year follow-up with risk of incident overall HF, HFpEF, and HFrEF
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person-years | Event rate per 1,000 person years | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
| Per 10% decrease in BMI from baseline to 1-year follow-up | ||||||||
| Overall HF | 51,159 | 3.89 | 0.61 (0.47, 0.80) | <0.001 | 0.65 (0.48, 0.86) | 0.003 | 0.69 (0.51, 0.93) | 0.01 |
| HFpEF | 51,037 | 1.86 | 0.57 (0.38, 0.84) | 0.005 | 0.63 (0.42, 0.96) | 0.03 | 0.64 (0.42, 0.98) | 0.04 |
| HFrEF | 51,037 | 1.69 | 0.54 (0.36, 0.83) | 0.005 | 0.55 (0.35, 0.85) | 0.008 | 0.59 (0.37, 0.93) | 0.02 |
| Per 10% decrease in BMI from baseline to 4-year follow-up | ||||||||
| Overall HF | 47,408 | 2.70 | 0.76 (0.66, 0.86) | <0.001 | 0.79 (0.68, 0.92) | 0.002 | 0.80 (0.69, 0.94) | 0.006 |
| HFpEF | 47,324 | 1.23 | 0.71 (0.60, 0.84) | <0.001 | 0.74 (0.62, 0.89) | 0.001 | 0.76 (0.63, 0.91) | 0.003 |
| HFrEF | 47,324 | 1.27 | 0.81 (0.64, 1.02) | 0.07 | 0.86 (0.64, 1.15) | 0.30 | 0.89 (0.64, 1.22) | 0.46 |
HR refers to the association of 10% decrease in BMI with risk of incident overall HF, HFpEF, and HFrEF included in separate Cox proportional hazards models. Separate models were constructed for each HF outcome (overall, HFpEF, and HFrEF). Separate models were created with sequential adjustment for confounders.
Model 1 included age, sex, ethnicity, education level, income, treatment group, history of hypertension, systolic BP, smoking status, current alcohol use, history of CVD, HbA1c, GFR, baseline BMI, baseline CRF, change in BMI.
Model 2 included age, sex, ethnicity, education level, income, treatment group, history of hypertension, systolic BP, smoking status, current alcohol use, history of CVD, HbA1c, GFR, baseline BMI, baseline CRF, change in BMI and change in CRF (both included in the same model).
Model 3 included age, sex, ethnicity, education level, income, treatment group, history of hypertension, systolic BP, smoking status, current alcohol use, history of CVD, HbA1c, GFR, baseline BMI, baseline CRF, change in BMI and change in CRF (both included in the same model), % change in A1c, % change in systolic BP.
BP = blood pressure; BMI = body mass index; CI = confidence interval; CRF = cardiorespiratory fitness; CVD = cardiovascular disease; GFR = glomerular filtration rate; HbA1c = glycated hemoglobin; HF = heart failure; HFpEF = heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF = heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; HR = hazard ratio.