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. 2023 Feb 28;2(2):pgad004. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad004

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© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Fig. 3. — Future projections of VCM for two emissions pathways. Projection of the conifer HSM to mid-century and late-century climates suggest a dramatic increase in VCM by the end of the century if the contemporary conifer range edges do not move. The expected growth in severe VCM area (SSP1-2.6: 2.53 km²/yr; SSP5-8.5: 5.98 km²/yr) outpaced the more moderate VCM growth (SSP1-2.6: 1.54 km²/yr; SSP5-8.5: 2.95 km²/yr) under both emissions scenarios. Following the trend in projections of historical VCM (Fig. S1), VCM is expected to increase most along the western slope of the Sierra Nevada.