Fig 6. Comparing our model to independent measurements.

(a) Our estimation of the number of active foragers N_max correlates positively with the total number of bees (R² = 0.596, p = 0.036). The dashed straight line corresponds to 18.2% of all bees being foragers, constant across all hives. The total number of bees was estimated through an independent measurement performed on 2018–04-9, two days after the data used in our inference [34]. The points without bars correspond to those that had no successful interval estimation, as discussed in Table 2. In all our analysis of correlation between variables, the reported p-value p is the probability of obtaining a positive coefficient of determination R² equal or larger than the reported R² under the null hypothesis that the variables are independent from each other. (b) The plot represents the difference between the number of bees arriving and bees departing a honey-bee hive during a 5 minutes interval. The model prediction (blue line) was computed integrating A(t) − D(t) over each time interval. The real data was measured using bee-tracking methods.