Table 4.
Multivariable predictive Lasso model of hospital admission within COVID 19 patients who attended ER (N = 46,402).
| Variables | Beta (99 % CI) | OR (99 % CI) | p | Importance | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociodemographic variables | |||||
| Gender | 29.46 | ||||
| Female | Ref | Ref | – | ||
| Male | 0.4 (0.31–0.5) | 1.5 (1.37–1.64) | <0.0001 | 2 | |
| Age (years) categorized | 177.63 | ||||
| 18–39 | Ref | Ref | – | ||
| 40–49 | 0.72 (0.57–0.87) | 2.05 (1.77–2.38) | <0.0001 | 4 | |
| 50–59 | 1.18 (1.03–1.32) | 3.25 (2.8–3.76) | <0.0001 | 6 | |
| 60–69 | 1.65 (1.49–1.81) | 5.22 (4.43–6.13) | <0.0001 | 9 | |
| 70–79 | 2.09 (1.91–2.28) | 8.12 (6.73–9.8) | <0.0001 | 11 | |
| 80–89 | 2.35 (2.13–2.56) | 10.45 (8.44–12.92) | <0.0001 | 13 | |
| >=90 | 2.26 (1.97–2.56) | 9.62 (7.15–12.95) | <0.0001 | 12 | |
| Vaccines | 40.92 | ||||
| 2–3 doses | Ref | Ref | – | ||
| 1 dose | 0.02 (−0.27–0.31) | 1.02 (0.76–1.36) | 0.86 | 0 | |
| No dose | 0.88 (0.71–1.04) | 2.4 (2.03–2.84) | <0.0001 | 5 | |
| Comorbidities | |||||
| Liver disease | 23.02 | ||||
| No | Ref | Ref | – | ||
| Mild | 0.29 (0.09–0.49) | 1.34 (1.1–1.64) | <0.001 | 2 | |
| Moderate/Severe | 1.29 (0.61–1.96) | 3.62 (1.84–7.12) | <0.0001 | 7 | |
| Arterial hypertension | 0.31 (0.19–0.42) | 1.36 (1.21–1.52) | <0.0001 | 61.30 | 2 |
| Cystic fibrosis | 0.52 (0.13–0.91) | 1.68 (1.14–2.48) | <0.001 | 18.64 | 3 |
| Tumor | 0.24 (0.05–0.43) | 1.27 (1.05–1.54) | <0.01 | 19.62 | 1 |
| Heart failure | 0.52 (0.31–0.73) | 1.68 (1.37–2.07) | <0.0001 | 39.61 | 3 |
| Basic treatments | |||||
| Immunosuppresants | 0.78 (0.39–1.16) | 2.18 (1.48–3.2) | <0.0001 | 32.91 | 4 |
| Chronic systemic steroids | 0.33 (0.09–0.56) | 1.39 (1.1–1.75) | <0.001 | 24.10 | 2 |
| Constants at ER | |||||
| Temperature | 32.33 | ||||
| <37 | Ref | Ref | – | ||
| 37–38 | 0.46 (0.34–0.57) | 1.58 (1.41–1.77) | <0.0001 | 2 | |
| >38 | 1.02 (0.82–1.23) | 2.79 (2.27–3.42) | <0.0001 | 6 | |
| Missing | 0.08 (−0.19–0.35) | 1.08 (0.83–1.42) | 0.45 | 0 | |
| SpO2 | 165.66 | ||||
| >94 | Ref | Ref | – | ||
| 90–94 | 1.61 (1.46–1.76) | 5 (4.29–5.81) | <0.0001 | 9 | |
| <90 | 2.4 (2.07–2.73) | 11.02 (7.9–15.38) | <0.0001 | 13 | |
| Missing | 0.35 (0.1–0.59) | 1.41 (1.11–1.81) | <0.001 | 2 | |
| Heart rate and blood pressure | 29.39 | ||||
| Normal | Ref | Ref | – | ||
| Medium | 0.18 (0.08–0.29) | 1.2 (1.08–1.33) | <0.0001 | 1 | |
| High | 0.39 (0.17–0.6) | 1.47 (1.19–1.83) | <0.0001 | 2 | |
| Missing | −0.17 (−0.45–0.12) | 0.84 (0.64–1.12) | 0.12 | 0 | |
| Train (99 %CI) | Test (99 %CI) | ||||
| AUC | 0.8347 (0.8273–0.8420) | 0.8327 (0.8253–0.8401) | 0.8438 (0.8302–0.8575) | ||
| AUC_score continuous | 0.8251 (0.8175–0.8327) | 0.8227 (0.8152–0.8303) | 0.8376 (0.8237–0.8516) | ||
| AUC_ score categorical (9,14,19,24) | 0.8204 (0.8127–0.8281) | 0.8178 (0.8100–0.8255) | 0.8292 (0.8147–0.8437) | ||
| AUPRC | 0.864 (0.8554–0.8721) | 0.8641 (0.8555–0.8722) | 0.7326 (0.7068–0.7569) | ||
| AUPRC_score continuous | 0.8563 (0.8475–0.8646) | 0.8562 (0.8475–0.8645) | 0.7205 (0.6943–0.7452) | ||
| AUPRC score categorical (9,14,19,24) | 0.8486 (0.8397–0.8571) | 0.8454 (0.8364–0.854) | 0.7031 (0.6765–0.7283) | ||
SpO2: Oxygen saturation.
Risk score range: 0–62. Cut-off points of categorical scale at 9, 14, 19, 2.