Skip to main content
. 2023 Feb 24;10:1127716. doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1127716

Table 1.

Summary of publications describing artificial intelligence application in predicting heart transplant outcomes.

Author Title Data source used Primary outcome Best model performance Study conclusion
Oztekin (16) Predicting the graft survival for heart-lung transplantation patients: An integrated data mining methodology Unified Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), 1987–2008 Combined heart-lung transplantation survival, and methods of UNOS database mining The neural network achieved the highest accuracy of 0.859. Model uncovered relationships among the survival-related variables. Domain-expert input improved performance.
Delen (7) A machine learning-based approach to prognostic analysis of thoracic transplantations United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), 1987–2009 Survival time The support vector machine model with a radial basis Kernel function produced the best fit with anR2value of 0.879 and MSE of 0.023. Integrated machine learning is more effective in developing the Cox survival models than the traditional methods.
Nilsson (10) The international heart transplant survival algorithm (IHTSA): A new model to improve organ sharing and survival International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) registry, 1994–2010 1-year mortality Artificial neural network model had anAUC of 0.650, 95% CI: 0.640–0.655. The model predicts mortality and also estimates the expected benefit to the individual patient, and donor-recipient compatibility.
Medved (17) Improving prediction of heart transplantation outcome using deep learning techniques United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), 1997–2011 1-year mortality International Heart Transplantation Survival Algorithm (IHTSA), based on deep learning, had AUC of 0.654, 95% CI: 0.629–0.679. The IHTSA model was superior to Donor Risk Index (DRI), Risk Stratification Score (RSS), and Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation (IMPACT).
Miller (5) Predictive abilities of machine learning techniques may be limited by dataset characteristics: insights from the UNOS database Unified Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), 1987–2014 1-year mortality The neural network model had the highest AUC of 0.66. The prognostic abilities of machine learning techniques may be limited by quality of the clinical dataset.
Agasthi (11) Machine learning helps predict long-term mortality and graft failure in patients undergoing heart transplant International Society of Heart and Lung Transplant (ISHLT) registry data, 2000–2017 All-cause mortality and graft failure at 5 years after HTx A gradient-boosted machine model had an AUC of 0.717, 95% CI: 0.696–0.737 for 5-year mortality and 0.716, 95% CI: 0.696–0.736 for graft failure. This model would likely function as a predictive algorithm to estimate the risk of 5-year mortality and graft failure in each donor–recipient match.
Hsich (15) Heart transplantation: An in-depth survival analysis Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR), 2004–2018 Factors that determined survival AI was used to identify variables that are associated with mortality, classified into early, late, and constant phases. Transplantation from ECMO should consider end-organ function to reduce early post-transplantation mortality.
Ayers (18) Using machine learning to improve survival prediction after heart transplantation United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), 2000–2019 1-year survival The final ensemble model had an AUC of 0.764, 95% CI: 0.745–0.782 Modern ML techniques can improve risk prediction in OHT compared to traditional approaches.
Zhou (13) Prediction of 1-year mortality after heart transplantation using machine learning approaches: A single-center study from China Local dataset from Wuhan union hospital, 2015–2018 1-year mortality Random Forest model achieved the best AUC of 0.801 and gradient boosting machine showed the best sensitivity of 0.271 The model identifies high-risk HTx recipients, informs a personalized therapeutic plan, and reduces organ wastage
Kainuma (19) Predictors of 1-year outcome after cardiac re-transplantation: Machine learning analysis United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), 2000–2009 1-year survival predictors post heart re-transplantation Random survival forests-ranked variable importance to evaluate the association with mortality Short-term survival was related to liver function, and long-term survival was related to obesity and mechanical ventilation.
Mete (14) Predicting post-heart transplant composite renal outcome risk in adults: A machine learning decision tool Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN), 2000–2019 Dependence on chronic dialysis, GFR < 20 ml/min per 1.73 m2, or having received a kidney transplant The Random Forest model had AUC of 0.70, 95% CI 0.67–0.74 for the composite primary outcome. The Model was used to create a validated web-based decision tool for assessing renal outcomes post HTx.
Miller (20) Temporal shift and predictive performance of machine learning for heart transplant outcomes United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS), 1994–2016 1-year all-cause mortality Random Forest model had an AUC of 0.893, CI: 0.889–0.897. While AI models can predict transplant mortality, they are limited by temporal shifts in patient and donor selection.
Wang (12) Comparison of four machine learning techniques for prediction of intensive care unit length of stay in heart transplantation patients Local data from Wuhan Union Hospital, 2017–2020 Length of ICU stay post heart transplantation The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm presented significantly better predictive performance (AUC 0.88). Using the XGBoost classifier with HTx patients can facilitate precision medicine and best allocation of medical resources.

Inline graphic strong recommendation, Inline graphic weak recommendation/promising but not ready to implement, and Inline graphic recommended against AI usage, as suggested by the respective paper.