Extended Data Fig.2A,,,,,
labelname,model,c,lower,upper,
Prevalent diabetes,individual_model,0.515,0.502,0.529,
Smoking,individual_model,0.54,0.511,0.569,
HDL,individual_model,0.546,0.51,0.582,
Exercise,individual_model,0.562,0.539,0.585,
Family history,individual_model,0.577,0.547,0.608,
BMI,individual_model,0.584,0.549,0.618,
PRS,individual_model,0.64,0.605,0.676,
Total cholesterol,individual_model,0.645,0.611,0.678,
Systolic BP,individual_model,0.649,0.614,0.685,
Baseline age,individual_model,0.733,0.705,0.761,
Conventional risk factors,all_crf,0.781,0.756,0.806,
PRS + Conventional risk factors,PRS_and_all_crf,0.806,0.78,0.832,
,,,,,
,,,,,
Extended Data Fig.2B,,,,,
labelname,beta,HR,lower,upper,pval
Exercise (yes/no),-0.33,0.72,0.51,1.02,6.71E-02
HDL per s.d.,-0.18,0.84,0.71,0.98,2.80E-02
BMI per s.d.,0.04,1.05,0.91,1.20,5.40E-01
Systolic BP per s.d.,0.06,1.06,0.94,1.20,3.16E-01
Total cholesterol per s.d.,0.19,1.21,1.08,1.35,1.43E-03
Family history (yes/no),0.50,1.65,1.27,2.15,1.59E-04
PRS per s.d.,0.58,1.78,1.57,2.03,1.45E-18
Smoking (yes/no),0.64,1.90,1.44,2.50,6.24E-06
Baseline age per s.d.,0.98,2.66,2.25,3.16,2.60E-29
Prevalent diabetes (yes/no),1.09,2.98,1.60,5.53,5.62E-04
,,,,,
,,,,,
Extended Data Fig.2C,,,,,
labelname,beta,HR,lower,upper,pval
Gut microbiome (unadjusted),0.25,1.29,1.15,1.44,7.45E-06
Gut microbiome (adjusted),0.09,1.09,0.97,1.23,1.63E-01
Age at baseline,0.82,2.28,1.93,2.70,5.36E-22
BMI,0.00,1.00,0.86,1.15,9.62E-01
Systolic BP,0.12,1.13,1.00,1.27,5.17E-02
Total cholesterol,0.23,1.26,1.13,1.40,2.69E-05
HDL,-0.19,0.82,0.71,0.96,1.58E-02
Smoking,0.57,1.78,1.35,2.35,5.11E-05
Exercise,-0.32,0.72,0.51,1.03,6.98E-02
Prevalent diabetes,1.03,2.79,1.51,5.18,1.10E-03
Family history,0.60,1.83,1.41,2.37,5.12E-06
,,,,,
,,,,,
Extended Data Fig.2D,,,,,
model,c,lower,upper,,
Age,0.733,0.705,0.761,,
PRS,0.640,0.605,0.676,,
Gut microbiome score,0.576,0.541,0.612,,
Age + PRS,0.781,0.754,0.808,,
Age + Gut microbiome score,0.736,0.709,0.764,,
Age + PRS + Gut microbiome score,0.783,0.756,0.810,,
Conventional risk factors,0.781,0.756,0.806,,
Conventional risk factors + PRS + Gut microbiome score,0.806,0.780,0.832,,