Extended Data Fig.3A,,,,,
labelname,model,c,lower,upper,
Smoking,individual_model,0.511,0.492,0.530,
Total cholesterol,individual_model,0.556,0.531,0.582,
Exercise,individual_model,0.559,0.543,0.574,
Family history,individual_model,0.589,0.568,0.610,
PRS,individual_model,0.612,0.588,0.637,
Systolic BP,individual_model,0.612,0.588,0.636,
Baseline age,individual_model,0.624,0.602,0.646,
HDL,individual_model,0.642,0.618,0.666,
Glucose,individual_model,0.656,0.631,0.682,
Triglyceride,individual_model,0.698,0.676,0.720,
BMI,individual_model,0.743,0.723,0.764,
Conventional risk factors,all_crf,0.798,0.780,0.817,
PRS + Conventional risk factors,PRS_and_all_crf,0.806,0.788,0.823,
,,,,,
,,,,,
Extended Data Fig.3B,,,,,
labelname,beta,HR,lower,upper,pval
HDL per s.d.,-0.25,0.78,0.69,0.88,5.14E-05
Exercise (yes/no),-0.25,0.78,0.61,1.01,6.01E-02
Total cholesterol per s.d.,-0.05,0.95,0.87,1.04,3.05E-01
Systolic BP per s.d.,0.05,1.05,0.96,1.15,2.97E-01
Triglyceride per s.d.,0.08,1.08,1.02,1.16,1.54E-02
Baseline age per s.d.,0.25,1.28,1.15,1.43,7.51E-06
Smoking (yes/no),0.27,1.31,1.06,1.61,1.09E-02
Glucose per s.d.,0.32,1.38,1.28,1.48,5.95E-19
PRS per s.d.,0.34,1.40,1.27,1.54,1.85E-12
Family history (yes/no),0.40,1.49,1.25,1.78,1.06E-05
BMI per s.d.,0.55,1.73,1.59,1.88,6.24E-36
,,,,,
,,,,,
Extended Data Fig.3C,,,,,
labelname,beta,HR,lower,upper,pval
Gut microbiome (unadjusted),0.32,1.38,1.28,1.49,2.31E-16
Gut microbiome (adjusted),0.15,1.16,1.07,1.26,5.38E-04
Age at baseline,0.22,1.25,1.12,1.39,5.36E-05
BMI,0.52,1.68,1.54,1.83,1.03E-31
Systolic BP,0.07,1.07,0.97,1.17,1.65E-01
Total cholesterol,-0.04,0.96,0.88,1.05,3.33E-01
HDL,-0.28,0.76,0.67,0.85,8.57E-06
Triglyceride,0.08,1.09,1.02,1.16,9.97E-03
Glucose,0.33,1.39,1.29,1.49,2.45E-20
Smoking,0.22,1.24,1.01,1.53,4.29E-02
Exercise,-0.27,0.77,0.59,0.99,4.13E-02
Family history,0.47,1.59,1.33,1.90,2.52E-07
,,,,,
,,,,,
Extended Data Fig.3D,,,,,
model,c,lower,upper,,
Age,0.624,0.602,0.646,,
PRS,0.612,0.588,0.637,,
Gut microbiome score,0.605,0.581,0.629,,
Age + PRS,0.675,0.653,0.697,,
Age + Gut microbiome score,0.659,0.637,0.681,,
Age + PRS + Gut microbiome score,0.697,0.676,0.718,,
Conventional risk factors,0.798,0.780,0.817,,
Conventional risk factors + PRS + Gut microbiome score,0.809,0.791,0.826,,