Supporting information for Murray (January 29, 2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 10.1073/pnas.022618299.

Table 2. Input data for each of nine settings for a microsimulation model of tuberculosis transmission

Variables

High burden

Moderate burden

Low burden

No HIV

Mod HIV

High HIV

High HIV

No HIV

Low HIV

High HIV

Mod HIV

Low HIV

Afghan

Sudan

Malawi

NY prison

Cuba

Algeria

U.S. prison

U.S.

Netherlands

Age distribution (1)

<11 years

0.35

0.30

0.37

0.00

0.15

0.28

0.00

0.16

0.14

11–20 years

0.19

0.23

0.23

0.00

0.15

0.22

0.00

0.15

0.12

>20 years

0.46

0.47

0.40

1.00

0.70

0.50

1.00

0.69

0.74

Prevalence of TB infection (T. M. Hammet, P. Harmon, and W. Rhodes, unpublished data, and ref. 2)

overall

0.410

0.293

0.299

0.225

0.123

0.163

0.074

0.047

0.120

<11 years

0.004

0.003

0.003

0.000

0.001

0.001

0.000

0.000

0.001

11–20 years

0.418

0.245

0.290

0.000

0.039

0.084

0.000

0.017

0.049

>20 years

0.718

0.493

0.571

0.225

0.176

0.293

0.074

0.065

0.154

HIV prevalence (2, 3)

0.0001

0.0099

0.1492

0.1360

0.0002

0.0007

0.0230

0.0012

0.0017

Bacillus Calmette--Guérin coverage (4, 5)

<11 years

0.22

0.21

0.72

0.00

0.97

0.83

0.00

0.00

0.00

11–20 years

0.37

0.78

0.58

0.00

0.98

0.89

0.00

0.00

0.00

>20 years

0.20

0.20

0.20

0.00

0.20

0.10

0.00

0.00

0.00

Chemoprophylaxis***

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.50

0.50

Duration infectiousness (T. M. Hammet, P. Harmon, and W. Rhodes, unpublished data)

24 m

27 m

11 m

12 m

13 m

13 m

12 m

8 m

9 m

ARI/trend# (T. M. Hammet, P. Harmon, and W. Rhodes, unpublished data)

.03/0

.018/0

.015/.01

*

.002/.03

.004/.04

*

0.0015/.015

.0015/.015

Household size (1)

8.0

4.8

4.3

200**

4.8

7.0

200**

2.8

3.3

*Prevalence of tuberculosis infection based on tuberculin skin test data, not on ARI.

**Assumed mixing group with uniform contact.

***Chemoprohylaxis refers to the proportion of household contacts who receive effective chemoprophlaxis.

#ARI refers to annual risk of infection and trend refers to the rate at which the ARI is declining.

1. United Nations Population Division (1999) World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision (United Nations, New York), Vol. 1.

2. Dye, C., Scheele, S., Dolin, P., Pathania, V. & Raviglione, M. C. (1999) J. Am. Med. Assoc. 282, 677-678.

3. UNAIDS (1997) Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic (United Nations, Geneva).

4. WHO Vaccine Preventable Disease Monitoring System (1999) Country Immunization Profiles. Global Survey (United Nations, Geneva).

5. Fine, P. E. M., Ponnighaus, J. M. & Maine, N. (1989) Bull W. H. O. 67, 35-42.