Payne and Finnegan. 10.1073/pnas.0701257104. |
Table 2. Odds ratio (OR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (C.I.) of survivorship with respect to genus range
Time interval | Total genera | Est. OR | Lower C.I. | Upper C.I. | P (c2) |
Cambrian 1 | 14 | >999.999 | <0.001 | >999.999 | 0.98 |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 1.519 | 1.264 | 1.826 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 3 | 320 | 1.798 | 1.391 | 2.323 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 4 | 392 | 1.918 | 1.251 | 2.94 | 0.0038 |
Ordovician 1 | 330 | 1.748 | 1.356 | 2.254 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 2 | 466 | 1.5 | 1.245 | 1.808 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 3 | 505 | 3.791 | 2.378 | 6.043 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 4 | 1010 | 2.49 | 2.096 | 2.958 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 5 | 693 | 1.527 | 1.352 | 1.725 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 1 | 717 | 2.077 | 1.654 | 2.609 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 2 | 1217 | 1.493 | 1.38 | 1.616 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 1 | 866 | 1.601 | 1.41 | 1.817 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 2 | 759 | 1.946 | 1.628 | 2.326 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 3 | 885 | 1.812 | 1.605 | 2.047 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 4 | 353 | 1.499 | 1.242 | 1.809 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 5 | 331 | 1.467 | 1.086 | 1.981 | 0.0106 |
Carboniferous 1 | 444 | 2.15 | 1.579 | 2.929 | <0.0001 |
Carboniferous 2 | 415 | 2.721 | 1.895 | 3.907 | <0.0001 |
Carboniferous 3 | 278 | 3.334 | 1.987 | 5.592 | <0.0001 |
Carboniferous 4 | 248 | 3.726 | 1.875 | 7.407 | 0.0002 |
Carboniferous 5 | 274 | 7.532 | 2.295 | 24.722 | 0.001 |
Permian 1 | 305 | 2.56 | 1.484 | 4.416 | 0.0013 |
Permian 2 | 418 | 4.067 | 2.252 | 7.344 | <0.0001 |
Permian 3 | 552 | 2.949 | 2.266 | 3.839 | <0.0001 |
Permian 4 | 313 | 1.195 | 0.963 | 1.482 | 0.1446 |
Triassic 1 | 124 | 1.655 | 1.129 | 2.425 | 0.0096 |
Triassic 2 | 310 | 1.951 | 1.419 | 2.683 | <0.0001 |
Triassic 3 | 368 | 2.129 | 1.599 | 2.835 | <0.0001 |
Triassic 4 | 420 | 1.068 | 0.988 | 1.154 | 0.0939 |
Jurassic 1 | 262 | 1.876 | 1.201 | 2.931 | 0.0059 |
Jurassic 2 | 266 | 2.163 | 1.5 | 3.118 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 3 | 255 | 1.823 | 1.311 | 2.534 | 0.0005 |
Jurassic 4 | 460 | 4.125 | 2.306 | 7.378 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 5 | 736 | 2.074 | 1.774 | 2.425 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 6 | 369 | 3.807 | 2.364 | 6.132 | <0.0001 |
Cretaceous 1 | 252 | 2.289 | 1.283 | 4.084 | 0.0069 |
Cretaceous 2 | 247 | 3.474 | 1.683 | 7.171 | 0.0012 |
Cretaceous 3 | 390 | 2.143 | 1.455 | 3.158 | 0.0002 |
Cretaceous 4 | 412 | 2.352 | 1.543 | 3.585 | <0.0001 |
Cretaceous 5 | 346 | 1.416 | 0.94 | 2.132 | 0.0937 |
Cretaceous 6 | 375 | 2.168 | 1.43 | 3.285 | 0.0002 |
Cretaceous 7 | 426 | 4.806 | 2.683 | 8.606 | <0.0001 |
Cretaceous 8 | 735 | 1.064 | 1.026 | 1.103 | 0.0006 |
Cenozoic 1 | 827 | 2.107 | 1.729 | 2.569 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 2 | 722 | 2.97 | 2.211 | 3.989 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 3 | 894 | 1.971 | 1.668 | 2.328 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 4 | 682 | 2.528 | 1.936 | 3.301 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1031 | 3.141 | 2.5 | 3.946 | <0.0001 |
Table 3. Odds ratios estimating geographic range selectivity in a multiple logistic regression of extinction risk with respect to geographic range, log occurrence frequency, and species richness
Time interval | Total genera | Est. OR | Lower C.I. | Upper C.I. | P (c2) |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 2.238 | 1.614 | 3.103 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 3 | 320 | 1.048 | 0.769 | 1.426 | 0.9737 |
Cambrian 4 | 392 | 1.726 | 1.083 | 2.751 | 0.0246 |
Ordovician 1 | 330 | 1.646 | 1.212 | 2.235 | 0.0026 |
Ordovician 2 | 466 | 1.249 | 0.99 | 1.575 | 0.1004 |
Ordovician 3 | 505 | 2.357 | 1.402 | 3.964 | 0.0023 |
Ordovician 4 | 1010 | 2.008 | 1.653 | 2.441 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 5 | 693 | 1.475 | 1.255 | 1.734 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 1 | 717 | 1.864 | 1.409 | 2.465 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 2 | 1217 | 1.335 | 1.196 | 1.492 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 1 | 866 | 1.464 | 1.233 | 1.739 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 2 | 759 | 1.631 | 1.304 | 2.04 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 3 | 885 | 1.431 | 1.232 | 1.663 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 4 | 353 | 1.256 | 0.978 | 1.613 | 0.0635 |
Devonian 5 | 331 | 0.884 | 0.578 | 1.35 | 0.3871 |
Carboniferous 1 | 444 | 1.342 | 0.906 | 1.987 | 0.0844 |
Carboniferous 2 | 415 | 1.812 | 1.178 | 2.786 | 0.0181 |
Carboniferous 3 | 278 | 1.365 | 0.735 | 2.538 | 0.3946 |
Carboniferous 4 | 248 | 1.962 | 0.941 | 4.09 | 0.0662 |
Carboniferous 5 | 274 | 2.569 | 0.708 | 9.325 | 0.196 |
Permian 1 | 305 | 1.524 | 0.813 | 2.854 | 0.5859 |
Permian 2 | 418 | 3.116 | 1.649 | 5.887 | 0.0012 |
Permian 3 | 552 | 2.872 | 2.117 | 3.897 | <0.0001 |
Permian 4 | 313 | 1.03 | 0.721 | 1.471 | 0.6885 |
Triassic 1 | 124 | 2.257 | 1.213 | 4.198 | 0.0116 |
Triassic 2 | 310 | 2.034 | 1.359 | 3.046 | 0.0004 |
Triassic 3 | 368 | 1.444 | 1.02 | 2.044 | 0.0376 |
Triassic 4 | 420 | 0.964 | 0.849 | 1.095 | 0.6068 |
Jurassic 1 | 262 | 1.494 | 0.853 | 2.614 | 0.1668 |
Jurassic 2 | 266 | 1.663 | 1.092 | 2.53 | 0.0227 |
Jurassic 3 | 255 | 1.992 | 1.246 | 3.184 | 0.0055 |
Jurassic 4 | 460 | 2.694 | 1.341 | 5.415 | 0.0029 |
Jurassic 5 | 736 | 2.175 | 1.758 | 2.691 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 6 | 369 | 3.157 | 1.849 | 5.391 | <0.0001 |
Cretaceous 1 | 252 | 1.796 | 0.96 | 3.36 | 0.066 |
Cretaceous 2 | 247 | 1.994 | 0.893 | 4.454 | 0.1061 |
Cretaceous 3 | 390 | 1.323 | 0.797 | 2.196 | 0.3627 |
Cretaceous 4 | 412 | 1.316 | 0.785 | 2.204 | 0.2214 |
Cretaceous 5 | 346 | 1.138 | 0.698 | 1.855 | 0.5708 |
Cretaceous 6 | 375 | 2.165 | 1.259 | 3.721 | 0.0031 |
Cretaceous 7 | 426 | 2.879 | 1.392 | 5.955 | 0.0167 |
Cretaceous 8 | 735 | 1.018 | 0.953 | 1.088 | 0.8827 |
Cenozoic 1 | 827 | 1.632 | 1.253 | 2.126 | 0.0003 |
Cenozoic 2 | 722 | 3.18 | 2.195 | 4.608 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 3 | 894 | 1.871 | 1.483 | 2.361 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 4 | 682 | 1.944 | 1.388 | 2.723 | 0.0005 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1031 | 2.296 | 1.748 | 3.016 | <0.0001 |
Table 4. Odds ratio estimates and 95% confidence intervals of survivorship with respect to species richness and with respect to log occurrence frequency
Time interval | Total genera | Est. OR | Lower C.I. | Upper C.I. | P (c2) |
Species richness | |||||
Cambrian 1 | 14 | 0.5 | 0.024 | 10.251 | 0.6529 |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 0.977 | 0.859 | 1.111 | 0.7213 |
Cambrian 3 | 320 | 1.492 | 1.269 | 1.754 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 4 | 392 | 1.132 | 0.985 | 1.3 | 0.0797 |
Ordovician 1 | 330 | 1.043 | 0.758 | 1.436 | 0.7948 |
Ordovician 2 | 466 | 1.523 | 1 | 2.321 | 0.0501 |
Ordovician 3 | 505 | 2.629 | 1.234 | 5.601 | 0.0122 |
Ordovician 4 | 1010 | 1.517 | 1.353 | 1.7 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 5 | 693 | 1.163 | 1.027 | 1.317 | 0.0172 |
Silurian 1 | 717 | 1.294 | 1.096 | 1.529 | 0.0024 |
Silurian 2 | 1217 | 1.152 | 1.107 | 1.2 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 1 | 866 | 1.15 | 1.061 | 1.247 | 0.0007 |
Devonian 2 | 759 | 1.165 | 1.06 | 1.282 | 0.0016 |
Devonian 3 | 885 | 1.177 | 1.108 | 1.251 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 4 | 353 | 1.007 | 0.944 | 1.075 | 0.8233 |
Devonian 5 | 331 | 1.068 | 0.934 | 1.221 | 0.3351 |
Carboniferous 1 | 444 | 1.137 | 1.016 | 1.274 | 0.026 |
Carboniferous 2 | 415 | 1.211 | 1.079 | 1.359 | 0.0011 |
Carboniferous 3 | 278 | 1.364 | 1.049 | 1.773 | 0.0205 |
Carboniferous 4 | 248 | 1.176 | 0.913 | 1.515 | 0.2095 |
Carboniferous 5 | 274 | 1.524 | 1.015 | 2.289 | 0.0423 |
Permian 1 | 305 | 1.468 | 1.032 | 2.086 | 0.0325 |
Permian 2 | 418 | 1.227 | 1.039 | 1.449 | 0.0158 |
Permian 3 | 552 | 1.16 | 1.061 | 1.268 | 0.0011 |
Permian 4 | 313 | 0.864 | 0.754 | 0.991 | 0.037 |
Triassic 1 | 124 | 0.993 | 0.853 | 1.156 | 0.9314 |
Triassic 2 | 310 | 1.146 | 0.992 | 1.324 | 0.0649 |
Triassic 3 | 368 | 1.209 | 1.059 | 1.38 | 0.0049 |
Triassic 4 | 420 | 1.009 | 0.946 | 1.075 | 0.7916 |
Jurassic 1 | 262 | 1.08 | 0.923 | 1.262 | 0.3376 |
Jurassic 2 | 266 | 1.067 | 0.894 | 1.272 | 0.4732 |
Jurassic 3 | 255 | 1.047 | 0.867 | 1.265 | 0.6305 |
Jurassic 4 | 460 | 1.597 | 1.152 | 2.215 | 0.005 |
Jurassic 5 | 736 | 1.308 | 1.194 | 1.433 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 6 | 369 | 1.066 | 0.954 | 1.19 | 0.2583 |
Cretaceous 1 | 252 | 1.146 | 0.895 | 1.467 | 0.28 |
Cretaceous 2 | 247 | 1.125 | 0.899 | 1.409 | 0.3026 |
Cretaceous 3 | 390 | 1.189 | 0.986 | 1.433 | 0.07 |
Cretaceous 4 | 412 | 1.282 | 1.028 | 1.597 | 0.0272 |
Cretaceous 5 | 346 | 0.998 | 0.869 | 1.146 | 0.9743 |
Cretaceous 6 | 375 | 1.043 | 0.903 | 1.205 | 0.5685 |
Cretaceous 7 | 426 | 1.17 | 0.941 | 1.454 | 0.1569 |
Cretaceous 8 | 735 | 0.998 | 0.971 | 1.025 | 0.8639 |
Cenozoic 1 | 827 | 1.478 | 1.261 | 1.733 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 2 | 722 | 1.195 | 1.058 | 1.351 | 0.0043 |
Cenozoic 3 | 894 | 1.206 | 1.104 | 1.316 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 4 | 682 | 1.505 | 1.223 | 1.851 | 0.0001 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1031 | 1.556 | 1.366 | 1.772 | <0.0001 |
Log occurrence frequency | |||||
Cambrian 1 | 14 | 3.248 | 0.135 | 78.421 | 0.4684 |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 1.021 | 0.806 | 1.292 | 0.8661 |
Cambrian 3 | 320 | 2.381 | 1.877 | 3.019 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 4 | 392 | 1.089 | 0.86 | 1.378 | 0.4796 |
Ordovician 1 | 330 | 1.457 | 1.161 | 1.829 | 0.0011 |
Ordovician 2 | 466 | 1.506 | 1.229 | 1.844 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 3 | 505 | 1.888 | 1.444 | 2.469 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 4 | 1010 | 1.629 | 1.471 | 1.805 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 5 | 693 | 1.105 | 0.966 | 1.265 | 0.1446 |
Silurian 1 | 717 | 1.319 | 1.136 | 1.533 | 0.0003 |
Silurian 2 | 1217 | 1.348 | 1.235 | 1.472 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 1 | 866 | 1.138 | 1.007 | 1.286 | 0.0389 |
Devonian 2 | 759 | 1.196 | 1.038 | 1.378 | 0.0136 |
Devonian 3 | 885 | 1.219 | 1.105 | 1.344 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 4 | 353 | 0.777 | 0.668 | 0.903 | 0.001 |
Devonian 5 | 331 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.033 | 0.1185 |
Carboniferous 1 | 444 | 1.205 | 1.019 | 1.426 | 0.0294 |
Carboniferous 2 | 415 | 1.026 | 0.889 | 1.185 | 0.7233 |
Carboniferous 3 | 278 | 1.37 | 1.054 | 1.781 | 0.0188 |
Carboniferous 4 | 248 | 1.146 | 0.838 | 1.567 | 0.3945 |
Carboniferous 5 | 274 | 1.402 | 1.113 | 1.765 | 0.0041 |
Permian 1 | 305 | 1.04 | 0.844 | 1.283 | 0.7114 |
Permian 2 | 418 | 0.916 | 0.78 | 1.075 | 0.2841 |
Permian 3 | 552 | 0.991 | 0.878 | 1.12 | 0.8898 |
Permian 4 | 313 | 0.404 | 0.315 | 0.519 | <0.0001 |
Triassic 1 | 124 | 0.702 | 0.537 | 0.919 | 0.01 |
Triassic 2 | 310 | 0.902 | 0.758 | 1.073 | 0.2438 |
Triassic 3 | 368 | 1.245 | 1.017 | 1.523 | 0.0338 |
Triassic 4 | 420 | 0.842 | 0.729 | 0.973 | 0.0201 |
Jurassic 1 | 262 | 1.195 | 0.899 | 1.589 | 0.2189 |
Jurassic 2 | 266 | 1.035 | 0.865 | 1.238 | 0.7064 |
Jurassic 3 | 255 | 0.842 | 0.709 | 1 | 0.0505 |
Jurassic 4 | 460 | 1.871 | 1.377 | 2.544 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 5 | 736 | 1.307 | 1.175 | 1.453 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 6 | 369 | 0.977 | 0.834 | 1.145 | 0.7719 |
Cretaceous 1 | 252 | 0.86 | 0.663 | 1.115 | 0.2547 |
Cretaceous 2 | 247 | 0.912 | 0.686 | 1.212 | 0.5262 |
Cretaceous 3 | 390 | 1.025 | 0.805 | 1.304 | 0.8433 |
Cretaceous 4 | 412 | 1.089 | 0.872 | 1.36 | 0.4527 |
Cretaceous 5 | 346 | 0.679 | 0.569 | 0.809 | <0.0001 |
Cretaceous 6 | 375 | 0.829 | 0.657 | 1.045 | 0.1123 |
Cretaceous 7 | 426 | 1.278 | 0.985 | 1.658 | 0.0649 |
Cretaceous 8 | 735 | 0.898 | 0.828 | 0.973 | 0.0087 |
Cenozoic 1 | 827 | 1.46 | 1.24 | 1.718 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 2 | 722 | 1.158 | 0.977 | 1.373 | 0.0906 |
Cenozoic 3 | 894 | 1.107 | 0.985 | 1.245 | 0.0881 |
Cenozoic 4 | 682 | 1.092 | 0.944 | 1.263 | 0.2386 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1031 | 1.518 | 1.349 | 1.708 | <0.0001 |
Table 5. Odds ratio estimates and 95% confidence intervals of survivorship with respect to species richness and with respect to log occurrence frequency from a multiple logistic regression of geographic range, log occurrence frequency, and species richness
Time interval | Total genera | Est. OR | Lower C.I. | Upper C.I. | P (c2) |
Species richness | |||||
Cambrian 1 | 14 | <0.001 | <0.001 | >999.999 | 0.9263 |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 0.812 | 0.623 | 1.059 | 0.0853 |
Cambrian 3 | 320 | 1.045 | 0.859 | 1.272 | 0.8599 |
Cambrian 4 | 392 | 1.126 | 0.909 | 1.394 | 0.2975 |
Ordovician 1 | 330 | 0.966 | 0.692 | 1.347 | 0.8613 |
Ordovician 2 | 466 | 1.272 | 0.829 | 1.953 | 0.3641 |
Ordovician 3 | 505 | 1.557 | 0.712 | 3.403 | 0.3865 |
Ordovician 4 | 1010 | 1.342 | 1.173 | 1.536 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 5 | 693 | 1.071 | 0.917 | 1.25 | 0.3044 |
Silurian 1 | 717 | 0.923 | 0.748 | 1.14 | 0.2902 |
Silurian 2 | 1217 | 1.078 | 1.021 | 1.138 | 0.0901 |
Devonian 1 | 866 | 1.073 | 0.948 | 1.215 | 0.2631 |
Devonian 2 | 759 | 0.926 | 0.795 | 1.078 | 0.3405 |
Devonian 3 | 885 | 1.085 | 0.998 | 1.18 | 0.2004 |
Devonian 4 | 353 | 1.006 | 0.905 | 1.118 | 0.889 |
Devonian 5 | 331 | 1.173 | 0.954 | 1.441 | 0.1342 |
Carboniferous 1 | 444 | 0.926 | 0.794 | 1.079 | 0.4041 |
Carboniferous 2 | 415 | 1.28 | 1.065 | 1.538 | 0.0096 |
Carboniferous 3 | 278 | 1.29 | 0.872 | 1.911 | 0.3665 |
Carboniferous 4 | 248 | 1.038 | 0.778 | 1.385 | 0.8197 |
Carboniferous 5 | 274 | 0.938 | 0.531 | 1.656 | 0.9359 |
Permian 1 | 305 | 1.286 | 0.875 | 1.891 | 0.0416 |
Permian 2 | 418 | 1.504 | 1.161 | 1.949 | 0.0067 |
Permian 3 | 552 | 1.036 | 0.892 | 1.203 | 0.6547 |
Permian 4 | 313 | 1.168 | 0.972 | 1.405 | 0.1229 |
Triassic 1 | 124 | 0.811 | 0.518 | 1.271 | 0.4105 |
Triassic 2 | 310 | 1.222 | 0.987 | 1.513 | 0.0619 |
Triassic 3 | 368 | 1.113 | 0.914 | 1.356 | 0.2886 |
Triassic 4 | 420 | 1.076 | 0.964 | 1.201 | 0.2009 |
Jurassic 1 | 262 | 0.895 | 0.743 | 1.078 | 0.2419 |
Jurassic 2 | 266 | 0.965 | 0.771 | 1.208 | 0.7186 |
Jurassic 3 | 255 | 0.971 | 0.701 | 1.344 | 0.9897 |
Jurassic 4 | 460 | 0.803 | 0.536 | 1.204 | 0.2457 |
Jurassic 5 | 736 | 0.993 | 0.862 | 1.144 | 0.9337 |
Jurassic 6 | 369 | 0.967 | 0.823 | 1.137 | 0.814 |
Cretaceous 1 | 252 | 1.579 | 1.011 | 2.466 | 0.0689 |
Cretaceous 2 | 247 | 1.162 | 0.8 | 1.687 | 0.4568 |
Cretaceous 3 | 390 | 1.285 | 0.967 | 1.708 | 0.089 |
Cretaceous 4 | 412 | 1.356 | 0.985 | 1.866 | 0.0982 |
Cretaceous 5 | 346 | 1.405 | 1.027 | 1.923 | 0.0328 |
Cretaceous 6 | 375 | 1.019 | 0.748 | 1.388 | 0.9859 |
Cretaceous 7 | 426 | 0.723 | 0.542 | 0.963 | 0.1181 |
Cretaceous 8 | 735 | 0.987 | 0.937 | 1.04 | 0.9796 |
Cenozoic 1 | 827 | 1.245 | 1.01 | 1.534 | 0.1065 |
Cenozoic 2 | 722 | 0.898 | 0.744 | 1.083 | 0.3386 |
Cenozoic 3 | 894 | 1.174 | 1.007 | 1.37 | 0.0408 |
Cenozoic 4 | 682 | 1.402 | 1.038 | 1.895 | 0.0134 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1031 | 1.354 | 1.123 | 1.633 | 0.0049 |
Log occurrence frequency | |||||
Cambrian 1 | 14 | >999.999 | <0.001 | >999.999 | 0.9358 |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 0.7 | 0.463 | 1.059 | 0.135 |
Cambrian 3 | 320 | 2.219 | 1.602 | 3.074 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 4 | 392 | 1.031 | 0.717 | 1.482 | 0.8759 |
Ordovician 1 | 330 | 1.115 | 0.809 | 1.535 | 0.5377 |
Ordovician 2 | 466 | 1.331 | 1.005 | 1.763 | 0.0235 |
Ordovician 3 | 505 | 1.664 | 1.173 | 2.361 | 0.0051 |
Ordovician 4 | 1010 | 1.18 | 1.008 | 1.381 | 0.1664 |
Ordovician 5 | 693 | 1.025 | 0.806 | 1.304 | 0.7036 |
Silurian 1 | 717 | 1.231 | 0.967 | 1.568 | 0.1004 |
Silurian 2 | 1217 | 1.038 | 0.886 | 1.218 | 0.3481 |
Devonian 1 | 866 | 1.057 | 0.839 | 1.331 | 0.8217 |
Devonian 2 | 759 | 1.48 | 1.152 | 1.903 | 0.0024 |
Devonian 3 | 885 | 1.255 | 1.06 | 1.486 | 0.0018 |
Devonian 4 | 353 | 1.296 | 0.989 | 1.699 | 0.0827 |
Devonian 5 | 331 | 1.369 | 1.07 | 1.751 | 0.0023 |
Carboniferous 1 | 444 | 1.928 | 1.464 | 2.541 | <0.0001 |
Carboniferous 2 | 415 | 1.016 | 0.809 | 1.276 | 0.737 |
Carboniferous 3 | 278 | 2.14 | 1.289 | 3.553 | 0.0018 |
Carboniferous 4 | 248 | 2.202 | 1.291 | 3.757 | 0.008 |
Carboniferous 5 | 274 | 2.756 | 1.897 | 4.003 | <0.0001 |
Permian 1 | 305 | 1.286 | 0.943 | 1.754 | 0.1015 |
Permian 2 | 418 | 0.867 | 0.677 | 1.111 | 0.4806 |
Permian 3 | 552 | 0.984 | 0.799 | 1.212 | 0.9379 |
Permian 4 | 313 | 0.908 | 0.625 | 1.321 | 0.3453 |
Triassic 1 | 124 | 0.827 | 0.499 | 1.372 | 0.4738 |
Triassic 2 | 310 | 0.739 | 0.557 | 0.981 | 0.0249 |
Triassic 3 | 368 | 1.475 | 1.016 | 2.14 | 0.0568 |
Triassic 4 | 420 | 1.132 | 0.898 | 1.427 | 0.3209 |
Jurassic 1 | 262 | 1.666 | 0.979 | 2.833 | 0.0595 |
Jurassic 2 | 266 | 1.422 | 1.061 | 1.905 | 0.0127 |
Jurassic 3 | 255 | 0.934 | 0.703 | 1.242 | 0.5706 |
Jurassic 4 | 460 | 2.061 | 1.273 | 3.338 | 0.0096 |
Jurassic 5 | 736 | 0.943 | 0.771 | 1.153 | 0.6451 |
Jurassic 6 | 369 | 1.254 | 0.951 | 1.655 | 0.1185 |
Cretaceous 1 | 252 | 0.929 | 0.584 | 1.479 | 0.7052 |
Cretaceous 2 | 247 | 1.542 | 0.932 | 2.552 | 0.1007 |
Cretaceous 3 | 390 | 1.336 | 0.848 | 2.104 | 0.1857 |
Cretaceous 4 | 412 | 1.415 | 0.985 | 2.034 | 0.0573 |
Cretaceous 5 | 346 | 0.848 | 0.642 | 1.12 | 0.1992 |
Cretaceous 6 | 375 | 0.976 | 0.64 | 1.489 | 0.9448 |
Cretaceous 7 | 426 | 2.344 | 1.498 | 3.668 | 0.0003 |
Cretaceous 8 | 735 | 1.248 | 1.104 | 1.412 | 0.0006 |
Cenozoic 1 | 827 | 1.137 | 0.885 | 1.462 | 0.1418 |
Cenozoic 2 | 722 | 1.065 | 0.785 | 1.444 | 0.7243 |
Cenozoic 3 | 894 | 0.869 | 0.693 | 1.09 | 0.2005 |
Cenozoic 4 | 682 | 1.015 | 0.807 | 1.277 | 0.9594 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1031 | 1.059 | 0.854 | 1.313 | 0.4264 |
Table 6. Geographic selectivity of genus extinctions including range-through genera, where each range-through genus is assumed to have occupied a single tectonic plate
Time interval | Total genera | Est. OR | Lower C.I. | Upper C.I. | P (c2) |
Cambrian 1 | 14 | >999.999 | <0.001 | >999.999 | 0.98 |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 1.476 | 1.214 | 1.796 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 3 | 323 | 1.718 | 1.335 | 2.212 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 4 | 402 | 1.704 | 1.124 | 2.583 | 0.012 |
Ordovician 1 | 341 | 1.631 | 1.276 | 2.084 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 2 | 496 | 1.407 | 1.173 | 1.687 | 0.0002 |
Ordovician 3 | 585 | 2.843 | 1.82 | 4.439 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 4 | 1053 | 2.11 | 1.774 | 2.51 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 5 | 817 | 1.274 | 1.139 | 1.425 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 1 | 863 | 1.674 | 1.363 | 2.057 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 2 | 1300 | 1.373 | 1.272 | 1.481 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 1 | 1037 | 1.299 | 1.164 | 1.449 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 2 | 978 | 1.426 | 1.226 | 1.659 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 3 | 1019 | 1.444 | 1.293 | 1.612 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 4 | 570 | 1.009 | 0.862 | 1.181 | 0.9113 |
Devonian 5 | 507 | 0.948 | 0.729 | 1.233 | 0.6914 |
Carboniferous 1 | 589 | 1.517 | 1.152 | 1.997 | 0.003 |
Carboniferous 2 | 552 | 1.73 | 1.241 | 2.411 | 0.0012 |
Carboniferous 3 | 446 | 1.708 | 1.09 | 2.676 | 0.0195 |
Carboniferous 4 | 430 | 1.854 | 1.022 | 3.363 | 0.0421 |
Carboniferous 5 | 463 | 3.281 | 1.032 | 10.434 | 0.0441 |
Permian 1 | 485 | 1.472 | 0.867 | 2.498 | 0.1522 |
Permian 2 | 606 | 2.308 | 1.344 | 3.961 | 0.0024 |
Permian 3 | 683 | 1.884 | 1.511 | 2.349 | <0.0001 |
Permian 4 | 445 | 0.668 | 0.519 | 0.86 | 0.0017 |
Triassic 1 | 250 | 1.084 | 0.849 | 1.383 | 0.5184 |
Triassic 2 | 410 | 1.442 | 1.094 | 1.9 | 0.0093 |
Triassic 3 | 486 | 1.485 | 1.151 | 1.917 | 0.0024 |
Triassic 4 | 520 | 0.971 | 0.902 | 1.046 | 0.4407 |
Jurassic 1 | 387 | 1.414 | 0.973 | 2.056 | 0.0692 |
Jurassic 2 | 427 | 1.364 | 1.022 | 1.822 | 0.0352 |
Jurassic 3 | 423 | 1.239 | 0.961 | 1.599 | 0.0982 |
Jurassic 4 | 609 | 3.025 | 1.706 | 5.363 | 0.0002 |
Jurassic 5 | 848 | 1.689 | 1.474 | 1.936 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 6 | 571 | 1.881 | 1.267 | 2.792 | 0.0017 |
Cretaceous 1 | 511 | 1.296 | 0.831 | 2.021 | 0.252 |
Cretaceous 2 | 532 | 1.374 | 0.771 | 2.449 | 0.2815 |
Cretaceous 3 | 612 | 1.246 | 0.886 | 1.752 | 0.2058 |
Cretaceous 4 | 649 | 1.397 | 0.971 | 2.01 | 0.0716 |
Cretaceous 5 | 644 | 0.909 | 0.649 | 1.273 | 0.5794 |
Cretaceous 6 | 691 | 1.302 | 0.914 | 1.855 | 0.144 |
Cretaceous 7 | 768 | 1.973 | 1.182 | 3.294 | 0.0094 |
Cretaceous 8 | 960 | 0.992 | 0.96 | 1.025 | 0.6326 |
Cenozoic 1 | 999 | 1.702 | 1.41 | 2.054 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 2 | 1034 | 1.804 | 1.409 | 2.311 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 3 | 1186 | 1.45 | 1.259 | 1.67 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 4 | 1037 | 1.594 | 1.286 | 1.976 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1256 | 2.147 | 1.76 | 2.619 | <0.0001 |
Table 7. Odds ratio estimates and 95% confidence intervals of survivorship with respect to genus range when singleton genera are completely excluded from the analysis
Time interval | Total genera | Est. OR | Lower C.I. | Upper C.I. | P (c2) |
Cambrian 1 | 14 | >999.999 | <0.001 | >999.999 | 0.98 |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 1.476 | 1.214 | 1.796 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 3 | 323 | 1.718 | 1.335 | 2.212 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 4 | 402 | 1.704 | 1.124 | 2.583 | 0.012 |
Ordovician 1 | 341 | 1.631 | 1.276 | 2.084 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 2 | 496 | 1.407 | 1.173 | 1.687 | 0.0002 |
Ordovician 3 | 585 | 2.843 | 1.82 | 4.439 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 4 | 1053 | 2.11 | 1.774 | 2.51 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 5 | 817 | 1.274 | 1.139 | 1.425 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 1 | 863 | 1.674 | 1.363 | 2.057 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 2 | 1300 | 1.373 | 1.272 | 1.481 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 1 | 1037 | 1.299 | 1.164 | 1.449 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 2 | 978 | 1.426 | 1.226 | 1.659 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 3 | 1019 | 1.444 | 1.293 | 1.612 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 4 | 570 | 1.009 | 0.862 | 1.181 | 0.9113 |
Devonian 5 | 507 | 0.948 | 0.729 | 1.233 | 0.6914 |
Carboniferous 1 | 589 | 1.517 | 1.152 | 1.997 | 0.003 |
Carboniferous 2 | 552 | 1.73 | 1.241 | 2.411 | 0.0012 |
Carboniferous 3 | 446 | 1.708 | 1.09 | 2.676 | 0.0195 |
Carboniferous 4 | 430 | 1.854 | 1.022 | 3.363 | 0.0421 |
Carboniferous 5 | 463 | 3.281 | 1.032 | 10.434 | 0.0441 |
Permian 1 | 485 | 1.472 | 0.867 | 2.498 | 0.1522 |
Permian 2 | 606 | 2.308 | 1.344 | 3.961 | 0.0024 |
Permian 3 | 683 | 1.884 | 1.511 | 2.349 | <0.0001 |
Permian 4 | 445 | 0.668 | 0.519 | 0.86 | 0.0017 |
Triassic 1 | 250 | 1.084 | 0.849 | 1.383 | 0.5184 |
Triassic 2 | 410 | 1.442 | 1.094 | 1.9 | 0.0093 |
Triassic 3 | 486 | 1.485 | 1.151 | 1.917 | 0.0024 |
Triassic 4 | 520 | 0.971 | 0.902 | 1.046 | 0.4407 |
Jurassic 1 | 387 | 1.414 | 0.973 | 2.056 | 0.0692 |
Jurassic 2 | 427 | 1.364 | 1.022 | 1.822 | 0.0352 |
Jurassic 3 | 423 | 1.239 | 0.961 | 1.599 | 0.0982 |
Jurassic 4 | 609 | 3.025 | 1.706 | 5.363 | 0.0002 |
Jurassic 5 | 848 | 1.689 | 1.474 | 1.936 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 6 | 571 | 1.881 | 1.267 | 2.792 | 0.0017 |
Cretaceous 1 | 511 | 1.296 | 0.831 | 2.021 | 0.252 |
Cretaceous 2 | 532 | 1.374 | 0.771 | 2.449 | 0.2815 |
Cretaceous 3 | 612 | 1.246 | 0.886 | 1.752 | 0.2058 |
Cretaceous 4 | 649 | 1.397 | 0.971 | 2.01 | 0.0716 |
Cretaceous 5 | 644 | 0.909 | 0.649 | 1.273 | 0.5794 |
Cretaceous 6 | 691 | 1.302 | 0.914 | 1.855 | 0.144 |
Cretaceous 7 | 768 | 1.973 | 1.182 | 3.294 | 0.0094 |
Cretaceous 8 | 960 | 0.992 | 0.96 | 1.025 | 0.6326 |
Cenozoic 1 | 999 | 1.702 | 1.41 | 2.054 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 2 | 1034 | 1.804 | 1.409 | 2.311 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 3 | 1186 | 1.45 | 1.259 | 1.67 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 4 | 1037 | 1.594 | 1.286 | 1.976 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1256 | 2.147 | 1.76 | 2.619 | <0.0001 |
Table 8. Expected odds ratios under a null model of regionally stochastic extinction
Time interval | Total genera | Est. OR | Lower C.I. | Upper C.I. |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 2.107 | 1.647 | 2.696 |
Cambrian 3 | 320 | 1.929 | 1.451 | 2.563 |
Cambrian 4 | 392 | 4.3 | 2.565 | 7.209 |
Ordovician 1 | 330 | 3.469 | 2.08 | 5.783 |
Ordovician 2 | 466 | 3.29 | 2.236 | 4.84 |
Ordovician 3 | 505 | 3.529 | 2.259 | 5.511 |
Ordovician 4 | 1010 | 2.006 | 1.704 | 2.362 |
Ordovician 5 | 693 | 2.36 | 1.927 | 2.889 |
Silurian 1 | 717 | 2.598 | 1.967 | 3.432 |
Silurian 2 | 1217 | 1.944 | 1.725 | 2.191 |
Devonian 1 | 866 | 2.61 | 2.09 | 3.258 |
Devonian 2 | 759 | 2.577 | 2.046 | 3.245 |
Devonian 3 | 885 | 1.751 | 1.546 | 1.982 |
Devonian 4 | 353 | 1.775 | 1.393 | 2.262 |
Devonian 5 | 331 | 2.781 | 1.807 | 4.28 |
Carboniferous 1 | 444 | 2.142 | 1.563 | 2.936 |
Carboniferous 2 | 415 | 3.179 | 2.078 | 4.863 |
Carboniferous 3 | 278 | 3.326 | 2.016 | 5.487 |
Carboniferous 4 | 248 | 5.898 | 2.434 | 14.293 |
Carboniferous 5 | 274 | 5.848 | 2.052 | 16.672 |
Permian 1 | 305 | 4.339 | 1.904 | 9.887 |
Permian 2 | 418 | 3.848 | 2.083 | 7.109 |
Permian 3 | 552 | 1.97 | 1.603 | 2.42 |
Permian 4 | 313 | 1.742 | 1.363 | 2.227 |
Triassic 1 | 124 | 9.901 | 2.885 | 33.977 |
Triassic 2 | 310 | 2.704 | 1.779 | 4.111 |
Triassic 3 | 368 | 2.367 | 1.738 | 3.224 |
Triassic 4 | 420 | 5.107 | 3.392 | 7.689 |
Jurassic 1 | 262 | 4.306 | 1.491 | 12.435 |
Jurassic 2 | 266 | 5.613 | 2.812 | 11.204 |
Jurassic 3 | 255 | 3.027 | 1.792 | 5.114 |
Jurassic 4 | 460 | 4.747 | 2.459 | 9.164 |
Jurassic 5 | 736 | 2.623 | 2.139 | 3.216 |
Jurassic 6 | 369 | 5.38 | 3.09 | 9.366 |
Cretaceous 1 | 252 | 5.569 | 1.824 | 17.005 |
Cretaceous 2 | 247 | 3.96 | 1.615 | 9.709 |
Cretaceous 3 | 390 | 3.243 | 1.894 | 5.552 |
Cretaceous 4 | 412 | 3.916 | 2.221 | 6.906 |
Cretaceous 5 | 346 | 3.49 | 1.596 | 7.631 |
Cretaceous 6 | 375 | 9.682 | 3.651 | 25.676 |
Cretaceous 7 | 426 | 4.079 | 2.296 | 7.249 |
Cretaceous 8 | 735 | 2.854 | 2.255 | 3.612 |
Cenozoic 1 | 827 | 2.657 | 2.036 | 3.468 |
Cenozoic 2 | 722 | 4.725 | 3.062 | 7.291 |
Cenozoic 3 | 894 | 2.624 | 2.08 | 3.311 |
Cenozoic 4 | 682 | 3.941 | 2.61 | 5.949 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1031 | 3.205 | 2.521 | 4.075 |
Table 9. Odds ratios estimating geographic range selectivity using equal-area grid cells from paleogeographic reconstructions rather than tectonic plates
Time interval | Total genera | Est. OR | Lower C.I. | Upper C.I. | P (c2) |
Cambrian 2 | 425 | 1.49 | 1.237 | 1.794 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 3 | 320 | 1.876 | 1.459 | 2.411 | <0.0001 |
Cambrian 4 | 392 | 1.612 | 1.111 | 2.339 | 0.0119 |
Ordovician 1 | 330 | 1.812 | 1.383 | 2.373 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 2 | 466 | 1.707 | 1.332 | 2.189 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 3 | 505 | 3.282 | 2.129 | 5.058 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 4 | 1010 | 2.204 | 1.883 | 2.579 | <0.0001 |
Ordovician 5 | 693 | 1.502 | 1.317 | 1.713 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 1 | 717 | 2.186 | 1.702 | 2.808 | <0.0001 |
Silurian 2 | 1217 | 1.449 | 1.333 | 1.574 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 1 | 866 | 1.581 | 1.388 | 1.802 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 2 | 759 | 2.184 | 1.761 | 2.709 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 3 | 885 | 1.949 | 1.696 | 2.24 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 4 | 353 | 1.43 | 1.199 | 1.706 | <0.0001 |
Devonian 5 | 331 | 1.548 | 1.159 | 2.068 | 0.0031 |
Carboniferous 1 | 444 | 3.97 | 2.575 | 6.122 | <0.0001 |
Carboniferous 2 | 415 | 3.551 | 2.458 | 5.131 | <0.0001 |
Carboniferous 3 | 278 | 3.616 | 2.133 | 6.132 | <0.0001 |
Carboniferous 4 | 248 | 4.385 | 2.367 | 8.123 | <0.0001 |
Carboniferous 5 | 274 | 4.367 | 2.409 | 7.919 | <0.0001 |
Permian 1 | 305 | 3.325 | 1.849 | 5.978 | <0.0001 |
Permian 2 | 418 | 3.461 | 1.977 | 6.06 | <0.0001 |
Permian 3 | 552 | 2.907 | 2.213 | 3.819 | <0.0001 |
Permian 4 | 313 | 1.125 | 0.853 | 1.484 | 0.4033 |
Triassic 1 | 124 | 1.69 | 1.14 | 2.505 | 0.0089 |
Triassic 2 | 310 | 2.311 | 1.438 | 3.716 | 0.0005 |
Triassic 3 | 368 | 3.189 | 2.103 | 4.837 | <0.0001 |
Triassic 4 | 420 | 1.106 | 0.992 | 1.233 | 0.07 |
Jurassic 1 | 262 | 2.033 | 1.218 | 3.393 | 0.0067 |
Jurassic 2 | 266 | 2.206 | 1.468 | 3.313 | 0.0001 |
Jurassic 3 | 255 | 1.748 | 1.25 | 2.444 | 0.0011 |
Jurassic 4 | 460 | 5.615 | 2.71 | 11.636 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 5 | 736 | 2.655 | 2.095 | 3.364 | <0.0001 |
Jurassic 6 | 369 | 5.005 | 2.476 | 10.118 | <0.0001 |
Cretaceous 1 | 252 | 2.753 | 1.305 | 5.805 | 0.0078 |
Cretaceous 2 | 247 | 3.33 | 1.558 | 7.117 | 0.0019 |
Cretaceous 3 | 390 | 2.888 | 1.572 | 5.306 | 0.0006 |
Cretaceous 4 | 412 | 2.544 | 1.506 | 4.3 | 0.0005 |
Cretaceous 5 | 346 | 1.281 | 0.89 | 1.844 | 0.1831 |
Cretaceous 6 | 375 | 3.779 | 1.799 | 7.935 | 0.0004 |
Cretaceous 7 | 426 | 19.848 | 4.902 | 80.361 | <0.0001 |
Cretaceous 8 | 735 | 1.132 | 1.058 | 1.211 | 0.0003 |
Cenozoic 1 | 827 | 2.943 | 2.194 | 3.947 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 2 | 722 | 2.848 | 1.976 | 4.105 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 3 | 894 | 3.047 | 2.34 | 3.969 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 4 | 682 | 3.104 | 2.212 | 4.358 | <0.0001 |
Cenozoic 5 | 1031 | 3.199 | 2.494 | 4.105 | <0.0001 |