Table 3. Annual model (BUGS analysis)

Series name

α1

 

 

α2

 

 

σ

 

 

 

mean

0.025

0.975

mean

0.025

0.975

mean

0.025

0.075

asf1

–0.94

–1.38

–0.51

0.42

–0.04

0.85

0.65

0.49

0.92

asf2

–1.38

–1.78

–0.95

–0.44

–0.83

–0.01

0.89

0.64

1.39

asf3

–0.64

–1.12

–0.17

0.02

–0.40

0.45

0.96

0.72

1.41

asf4

–1.33

–1.92

–0.76

0.02

–0.56

0.57

0.75

0.53

1.18

asf5

–1.05

–1.53

–0.55

–0.12

–0.57

0.37

0.96

0.69

1.45

asf6

–0.91

–1.32

–0.48

–0.45

–0.87

0.00

1.22

0.87

1.91

asf7

–0.66

–1.11

–0.19

–0.41

–0.82

0.03

1.02

0.74

1.57

asf8

–0.68

–1.16

–0.15

–0.21

–0.69

0.32

0.91

0.65

1.43

asf9

–0.96

–1.34

–0.55

–0.63

–1.00

–0.23

1.13

0.78

1.81

asf10

–1.56

–1.92

–1.16

–0.60

–0.94

–0.23

0.71

0.51

1.07

asf11

–1.03

–1.51

–0.46

–0.31

–0.75

0.19

1.04

0.76

1.62

asf12

–1.06

–1.45

–0.66

–0.44

–0.82

–0.05

1.07

0.78

1.63

asf13

–1.33

–1.78

–0.86

–0.31

–0.73

0.15

1.31

0.95

2.00

asf14

–0.54

–1.02

–0.06

–0.03

–0.52

0.48

0.62

0.46

0.90

asf15

–0.76

–1.20

–0.31

–0.19

–0.63

0.26

0.68

0.51

0.98

asf16

–0.95

–1.37

–0.52

0.30

–0.15

0.75

0.64

0.46

0.96

asf17

–0.74

–1.19

–0.29

0.17

–0.32

0.65

0.68

0.51

1.00

asf18

–1.28

–1.72

–0.82

–0.23

–0.66

0.24

1.02

0.72

1.61

asf19

–0.39

–0.87

0.10

–0.12

–0.62

0.40

1.01

0.73

1.55

asf20

–1.07

–1.39

–0.76

–0.74

–1.05

–0.40

0.56

0.40

0.86

asf21

–1.11

–1.53

–0.67

–0.39

–0.79

0.06

0.90

0.67

1.33

asf22

–1.14

–1.50

–0.77

–0.58

–0.93

–0.22

0.74

0.49

1.10

asf23

–0.77

–1.29

–0.21

–0.05

–0.61

0.59

1.51

1.05

2.46

asf24

–0.88

–1.42

–0.35

0.29

–0.26

0.83

1.26

0.91

1.94

asf25

–0.93

–1.46

–0.38

0.09

–0.41

0.62

1.32

0.96

2.00

asf26

–1.13

–1.55

–0.69

–0.20

–0.62

0.25

0.99

0.74

1.45

asf27

–1.08

–1.48

–0.65

–0.50

–0.89

–0.07

0.87

0.63

1.35

asf28

–0.85

–1.34

–0.33

–0.25

–0.72

0.25

1.22

0.89

1.84

asf29

–1.06

–1.54

–0.56

–0.31

–0.76

0.17

1.04

0.75

1.57

asf30

–1.06

–1.49

–0.61

–0.36

–0.79

0.10

1.27

0.94

1.91

asf31

–1.55

–1.93

–1.13

–0.54

–0.90

–0.14

1.15

0.84

1.74

asf32

–1.07

–1.58

–0.57

0.05

–0.46

0.57

0.83

0.59

1.27

asf33

–0.71

–1.16

–0.26

0.09

–0.37

0.55

0.88

0.65

1.30

asf34

–0.85

–1.28

–0.40

–0.10

–0.52

0.32

1.08

0.80

1.62

asf35

–0.83

–1.32

–0.30

–0.13

–0.63

0.45

1.67

1.18

2.73

asf36

–1.02

–1.39

–0.61

–0.59

–0.96

–0.15

1.10

0.73

1.95

asf37

–0.94

–1.39

–0.47

–0.18

–0.63

0.28

1.37

1.01

2.06

asf38

–1.13

–1.55

–0.69

–0.32

–0.72

0.10

1.04

0.75

1.59

asf39

–0.88

–1.30

–0.44

–0.26

–0.67

0.18

1.01

0.75

1.52

asf40

–0.99

–1.51

–0.45

–0.13

–0.61

0.40

1.29

0.93

1.98

asf41

–0.79

–1.30

–0.30

–0.28

–0.76

0.25

0.60

0.42

0.96

asf42

–0.78

–1.21

–0.33

–0.39

–0.81

0.05

1.20

0.89

1.77

asf43

–0.65

–1.17

–0.13

–0.12

–0.65

0.44

1.59

1.12

2.55

asf44

–1.42

–1.87

–0.95

–0.23

–0.65

0.21

1.06

0.78

1.58

asf45

–1.39

–1.88

–0.88

–0.14

–0.60

0.33

1.10

0.80

1.65

asf46

–1.29

–1.73

–0.85

–0.28

–0.71

0.17

0.93

0.69

1.37

asf47

–0.36

–0.80

0.07

–0.36

–0.78

0.10

0.72

0.52

1.08

asf48

–0.84

–1.29

–0.37

0.04

–0.42

0.52

1.02

0.77

1.47

asf49

–0.37

–0.77

0.00

–0.60

–0.94

–0.17

0.78

0.52

1.35

asf50

–0.87

–1.32

–0.43

–0.35

–0.80

0.17

0.67

0.48

1.03

asf51

–0.79

–1.25

–0.35

0.56

0.08

1.00

0.88

0.61

1.41

asf52

–0.84

–1.46

–0.28

0.36

–0.26

0.95

1.22

0.86

1.90

asf53

–0.81

–1.31

–0.31

0.39

–0.17

0.93

1.28

0.87

2.11

asf54

–0.68

–1.13

–0.21

–0.21

–0.71

0.33

1.15

0.81

1.84

asf55

–1.06

–1.48

–0.65

–0.40

–0.82

0.06

1.16

0.83

1.81

asf56

–0.88

–1.36

–0.38

–0.22

–0.68

0.27

1.22

0.90

1.82

asf57

–0.89

–1.32

–0.45

–0.27

–0.69

0.17

1.34

0.99

2.01

asf58

–0.76

–1.19

–0.31

–0.50

–0.88

–0.09

1.10

0.81

1.66

asf59

–1.06

–1.51

–0.56

–0.37

–0.82

0.11

1.30

0.92

2.07

asf60

–0.62

–1.10

–0.13

–0.08

–0.56

0.40

1.61

1.18

2.46

asf61

–0.77

–1.24

–0.30

–0.32

–0.74

0.13

1.11

0.81

1.67

asf62

–1.11

–1.51

–0.70

–0.50

–0.85

–0.13

0.84

0.61

1.28

asf63

–0.38

–0.84

0.08

0.02

–0.42

0.44

0.97

0.72

1.42

asf64

–0.71

–1.15

–0.26

–0.16

–0.61

0.31

1.28

0.95

1.90

asf65

–0.65

–1.14

–0.16

0.15

–0.36

0.67

0.90

0.66

1.34

asf66

–1.02

–1.38

–0.66

–0.57

–0.92

–0.19

0.95

0.67

1.51

asf67

–0.64

–1.12

–0.16

0.24

–0.21

0.67

0.90

0.64

1.39

asf68

–1.01

–1.47

–0.56

0.39

–0.09

0.85

0.81

0.60

1.21

asf69

–0.83

–1.30

–0.36

0.19

–0.28

0.65

0.89

0.62

1.41

asf70

–0.93

–1.39

–0.46

–0.06

–0.52

0.42

1.22

0.89

1.84

asf71

–1.15

–1.59

–0.69

0.08

–0.39

0.55

0.85

0.64

1.21

asf72

–1.31

–1.77

–0.84

–0.28

–0.74

0.23

1.01

0.71

1.62

asf73

–0.52

–0.98

–0.06

0.10

–0.35

0.54

0.89

0.65

1.32

asf74

–1.05

–1.54

–0.56

0.19

–0.29

0.67

0.75

0.54

1.11

asf75

–0.85

–1.27

–0.41

0.34

–0.14

0.82

0.94

0.70

1.39

asf76

–0.82

–1.30

–0.33

0.13

–0.38

0.65

0.85

0.63

1.26

asf77

–1.17

–1.65

–0.68

0.17

–0.34

0.69

0.92

0.66

1.41

asf78

–1.12

–1.62

–0.61

0.08

–0.40

0.57

0.69

0.50

1.06

asf79

–0.83

–1.33

–0.34

–0.14

–0.57

0.32

0.67

0.46

1.08

asf80

–0.55

–0.97

–0.16

0.29

–0.09

0.67

0.75

0.57

1.06

asf81

–0.73

–1.16

–0.27

0.32

–0.15

0.75

0.96

0.72

1.41

asf82

–1.22

–1.64

–0.79

–0.25

–0.67

0.20

0.94

0.71

1.37

asf83

–0.88

–1.39

–0.36

0.13

–0.34

0.60

1.15

0.85

1.69

asf84

–1.57

–1.97

–1.15

–0.36

–0.75

0.04

0.78

0.59

1.13