Table 3. Annual model (BUGS analysis)
Series name |
α 1 |
|
|
α 2 |
|
|
σ |
|
|
|
mean |
0.025 |
0.975 |
mean |
0.025 |
0.975 |
mean |
0.025 |
0.075 |
asf1 |
–0.94 |
–1.38 |
–0.51 |
0.42 |
–0.04 |
0.85 |
0.65 |
0.49 |
0.92 |
asf2 |
–1.38 |
–1.78 |
–0.95 |
–0.44 |
–0.83 |
–0.01 |
0.89 |
0.64 |
1.39 |
asf3 |
–0.64 |
–1.12 |
–0.17 |
0.02 |
–0.40 |
0.45 |
0.96 |
0.72 |
1.41 |
asf4 |
–1.33 |
–1.92 |
–0.76 |
0.02 |
–0.56 |
0.57 |
0.75 |
0.53 |
1.18 |
asf5 |
–1.05 |
–1.53 |
–0.55 |
–0.12 |
–0.57 |
0.37 |
0.96 |
0.69 |
1.45 |
asf6 |
–0.91 |
–1.32 |
–0.48 |
–0.45 |
–0.87 |
0.00 |
1.22 |
0.87 |
1.91 |
asf7 |
–0.66 |
–1.11 |
–0.19 |
–0.41 |
–0.82 |
0.03 |
1.02 |
0.74 |
1.57 |
asf8 |
–0.68 |
–1.16 |
–0.15 |
–0.21 |
–0.69 |
0.32 |
0.91 |
0.65 |
1.43 |
asf9 |
–0.96 |
–1.34 |
–0.55 |
–0.63 |
–1.00 |
–0.23 |
1.13 |
0.78 |
1.81 |
asf10 |
–1.56 |
–1.92 |
–1.16 |
–0.60 |
–0.94 |
–0.23 |
0.71 |
0.51 |
1.07 |
asf11 |
–1.03 |
–1.51 |
–0.46 |
–0.31 |
–0.75 |
0.19 |
1.04 |
0.76 |
1.62 |
asf12 |
–1.06 |
–1.45 |
–0.66 |
–0.44 |
–0.82 |
–0.05 |
1.07 |
0.78 |
1.63 |
asf13 |
–1.33 |
–1.78 |
–0.86 |
–0.31 |
–0.73 |
0.15 |
1.31 |
0.95 |
2.00 |
asf14 |
–0.54 |
–1.02 |
–0.06 |
–0.03 |
–0.52 |
0.48 |
0.62 |
0.46 |
0.90 |
asf15 |
–0.76 |
–1.20 |
–0.31 |
–0.19 |
–0.63 |
0.26 |
0.68 |
0.51 |
0.98 |
asf16 |
–0.95 |
–1.37 |
–0.52 |
0.30 |
–0.15 |
0.75 |
0.64 |
0.46 |
0.96 |
asf17 |
–0.74 |
–1.19 |
–0.29 |
0.17 |
–0.32 |
0.65 |
0.68 |
0.51 |
1.00 |
asf18 |
–1.28 |
–1.72 |
–0.82 |
–0.23 |
–0.66 |
0.24 |
1.02 |
0.72 |
1.61 |
asf19 |
–0.39 |
–0.87 |
0.10 |
–0.12 |
–0.62 |
0.40 |
1.01 |
0.73 |
1.55 |
asf20 |
–1.07 |
–1.39 |
–0.76 |
–0.74 |
–1.05 |
–0.40 |
0.56 |
0.40 |
0.86 |
asf21 |
–1.11 |
–1.53 |
–0.67 |
–0.39 |
–0.79 |
0.06 |
0.90 |
0.67 |
1.33 |
asf22 |
–1.14 |
–1.50 |
–0.77 |
–0.58 |
–0.93 |
–0.22 |
0.74 |
0.49 |
1.10 |
asf23 |
–0.77 |
–1.29 |
–0.21 |
–0.05 |
–0.61 |
0.59 |
1.51 |
1.05 |
2.46 |
asf24 |
–0.88 |
–1.42 |
–0.35 |
0.29 |
–0.26 |
0.83 |
1.26 |
0.91 |
1.94 |
asf25 |
–0.93 |
–1.46 |
–0.38 |
0.09 |
–0.41 |
0.62 |
1.32 |
0.96 |
2.00 |
asf26 |
–1.13 |
–1.55 |
–0.69 |
–0.20 |
–0.62 |
0.25 |
0.99 |
0.74 |
1.45 |
asf27 |
–1.08 |
–1.48 |
–0.65 |
–0.50 |
–0.89 |
–0.07 |
0.87 |
0.63 |
1.35 |
asf28 |
–0.85 |
–1.34 |
–0.33 |
–0.25 |
–0.72 |
0.25 |
1.22 |
0.89 |
1.84 |
asf29 |
–1.06 |
–1.54 |
–0.56 |
–0.31 |
–0.76 |
0.17 |
1.04 |
0.75 |
1.57 |
asf30 |
–1.06 |
–1.49 |
–0.61 |
–0.36 |
–0.79 |
0.10 |
1.27 |
0.94 |
1.91 |
asf31 |
–1.55 |
–1.93 |
–1.13 |
–0.54 |
–0.90 |
–0.14 |
1.15 |
0.84 |
1.74 |
asf32 |
–1.07 |
–1.58 |
–0.57 |
0.05 |
–0.46 |
0.57 |
0.83 |
0.59 |
1.27 |
asf33 |
–0.71 |
–1.16 |
–0.26 |
0.09 |
–0.37 |
0.55 |
0.88 |
0.65 |
1.30 |
asf34 |
–0.85 |
–1.28 |
–0.40 |
–0.10 |
–0.52 |
0.32 |
1.08 |
0.80 |
1.62 |
asf35 |
–0.83 |
–1.32 |
–0.30 |
–0.13 |
–0.63 |
0.45 |
1.67 |
1.18 |
2.73 |
asf36 |
–1.02 |
–1.39 |
–0.61 |
–0.59 |
–0.96 |
–0.15 |
1.10 |
0.73 |
1.95 |
asf37 |
–0.94 |
–1.39 |
–0.47 |
–0.18 |
–0.63 |
0.28 |
1.37 |
1.01 |
2.06 |
asf38 |
–1.13 |
–1.55 |
–0.69 |
–0.32 |
–0.72 |
0.10 |
1.04 |
0.75 |
1.59 |
asf39 |
–0.88 |
–1.30 |
–0.44 |
–0.26 |
–0.67 |
0.18 |
1.01 |
0.75 |
1.52 |
asf40 |
–0.99 |
–1.51 |
–0.45 |
–0.13 |
–0.61 |
0.40 |
1.29 |
0.93 |
1.98 |
asf41 |
–0.79 |
–1.30 |
–0.30 |
–0.28 |
–0.76 |
0.25 |
0.60 |
0.42 |
0.96 |
asf42 |
–0.78 |
–1.21 |
–0.33 |
–0.39 |
–0.81 |
0.05 |
1.20 |
0.89 |
1.77 |
asf43 |
–0.65 |
–1.17 |
–0.13 |
–0.12 |
–0.65 |
0.44 |
1.59 |
1.12 |
2.55 |
asf44 |
–1.42 |
–1.87 |
–0.95 |
–0.23 |
–0.65 |
0.21 |
1.06 |
0.78 |
1.58 |
asf45 |
–1.39 |
–1.88 |
–0.88 |
–0.14 |
–0.60 |
0.33 |
1.10 |
0.80 |
1.65 |
asf46 |
–1.29 |
–1.73 |
–0.85 |
–0.28 |
–0.71 |
0.17 |
0.93 |
0.69 |
1.37 |
asf47 |
–0.36 |
–0.80 |
0.07 |
–0.36 |
–0.78 |
0.10 |
0.72 |
0.52 |
1.08 |
asf48 |
–0.84 |
–1.29 |
–0.37 |
0.04 |
–0.42 |
0.52 |
1.02 |
0.77 |
1.47 |
asf49 |
–0.37 |
–0.77 |
0.00 |
–0.60 |
–0.94 |
–0.17 |
0.78 |
0.52 |
1.35 |
asf50 |
–0.87 |
–1.32 |
–0.43 |
–0.35 |
–0.80 |
0.17 |
0.67 |
0.48 |
1.03 |
asf51 |
–0.79 |
–1.25 |
–0.35 |
0.56 |
0.08 |
1.00 |
0.88 |
0.61 |
1.41 |
asf52 |
–0.84 |
–1.46 |
–0.28 |
0.36 |
–0.26 |
0.95 |
1.22 |
0.86 |
1.90 |
asf53 |
–0.81 |
–1.31 |
–0.31 |
0.39 |
–0.17 |
0.93 |
1.28 |
0.87 |
2.11 |
asf54 |
–0.68 |
–1.13 |
–0.21 |
–0.21 |
–0.71 |
0.33 |
1.15 |
0.81 |
1.84 |
asf55 |
–1.06 |
–1.48 |
–0.65 |
–0.40 |
–0.82 |
0.06 |
1.16 |
0.83 |
1.81 |
asf56 |
–0.88 |
–1.36 |
–0.38 |
–0.22 |
–0.68 |
0.27 |
1.22 |
0.90 |
1.82 |
asf57 |
–0.89 |
–1.32 |
–0.45 |
–0.27 |
–0.69 |
0.17 |
1.34 |
0.99 |
2.01 |
asf58 |
–0.76 |
–1.19 |
–0.31 |
–0.50 |
–0.88 |
–0.09 |
1.10 |
0.81 |
1.66 |
asf59 |
–1.06 |
–1.51 |
–0.56 |
–0.37 |
–0.82 |
0.11 |
1.30 |
0.92 |
2.07 |
asf60 |
–0.62 |
–1.10 |
–0.13 |
–0.08 |
–0.56 |
0.40 |
1.61 |
1.18 |
2.46 |
asf61 |
–0.77 |
–1.24 |
–0.30 |
–0.32 |
–0.74 |
0.13 |
1.11 |
0.81 |
1.67 |
asf62 |
–1.11 |
–1.51 |
–0.70 |
–0.50 |
–0.85 |
–0.13 |
0.84 |
0.61 |
1.28 |
asf63 |
–0.38 |
–0.84 |
0.08 |
0.02 |
–0.42 |
0.44 |
0.97 |
0.72 |
1.42 |
asf64 |
–0.71 |
–1.15 |
–0.26 |
–0.16 |
–0.61 |
0.31 |
1.28 |
0.95 |
1.90 |
asf65 |
–0.65 |
–1.14 |
–0.16 |
0.15 |
–0.36 |
0.67 |
0.90 |
0.66 |
1.34 |
asf66 |
–1.02 |
–1.38 |
–0.66 |
–0.57 |
–0.92 |
–0.19 |
0.95 |
0.67 |
1.51 |
asf67 |
–0.64 |
–1.12 |
–0.16 |
0.24 |
–0.21 |
0.67 |
0.90 |
0.64 |
1.39 |
asf68 |
–1.01 |
–1.47 |
–0.56 |
0.39 |
–0.09 |
0.85 |
0.81 |
0.60 |
1.21 |
asf69 |
–0.83 |
–1.30 |
–0.36 |
0.19 |
–0.28 |
0.65 |
0.89 |
0.62 |
1.41 |
asf70 |
–0.93 |
–1.39 |
–0.46 |
–0.06 |
–0.52 |
0.42 |
1.22 |
0.89 |
1.84 |
asf71 |
–1.15 |
–1.59 |
–0.69 |
0.08 |
–0.39 |
0.55 |
0.85 |
0.64 |
1.21 |
asf72 |
–1.31 |
–1.77 |
–0.84 |
–0.28 |
–0.74 |
0.23 |
1.01 |
0.71 |
1.62 |
asf73 |
–0.52 |
–0.98 |
–0.06 |
0.10 |
–0.35 |
0.54 |
0.89 |
0.65 |
1.32 |
asf74 |
–1.05 |
–1.54 |
–0.56 |
0.19 |
–0.29 |
0.67 |
0.75 |
0.54 |
1.11 |
asf75 |
–0.85 |
–1.27 |
–0.41 |
0.34 |
–0.14 |
0.82 |
0.94 |
0.70 |
1.39 |
asf76 |
–0.82 |
–1.30 |
–0.33 |
0.13 |
–0.38 |
0.65 |
0.85 |
0.63 |
1.26 |
asf77 |
–1.17 |
–1.65 |
–0.68 |
0.17 |
–0.34 |
0.69 |
0.92 |
0.66 |
1.41 |
asf78 |
–1.12 |
–1.62 |
–0.61 |
0.08 |
–0.40 |
0.57 |
0.69 |
0.50 |
1.06 |
asf79 |
–0.83 |
–1.33 |
–0.34 |
–0.14 |
–0.57 |
0.32 |
0.67 |
0.46 |
1.08 |
asf80 |
–0.55 |
–0.97 |
–0.16 |
0.29 |
–0.09 |
0.67 |
0.75 |
0.57 |
1.06 |
asf81 |
–0.73 |
–1.16 |
–0.27 |
0.32 |
–0.15 |
0.75 |
0.96 |
0.72 |
1.41 |
asf82 |
–1.22 |
–1.64 |
–0.79 |
–0.25 |
–0.67 |
0.20 |
0.94 |
0.71 |
1.37 |
asf83 |
–0.88 |
–1.39 |
–0.36 |
0.13 |
–0.34 |
0.60 |
1.15 |
0.85 |
1.69 |
asf84 |
–1.57 |
–1.97 |
–1.15 |
–0.36 |
–0.75 |
0.04 |
0.78 |
0.59 |
1.13 |