Pergams and Zaradic. 10.1073/pnas.0709893105.
Fig. 3. Annual per capita fishing licenses (variable Fishing, 1950-2005, n = 53), hunting licenses (variable Hunting, range of time series 1950-2005, n = 52), and duck stamps (Ducks, 1935-2004, n = 70). Linear regressions with accompanying equations are included for declines from identifiable peaks in Fishing (1981) and Ducks (1953).
Fig. 4. Nature variables with the greatest per capita participation as identified from Fig. 2. Linear regressions with equations are included for comparison of slopes. Included are annual per capita U.S. National Park visits (NPV), U.S. National Forest visits (NFV), U.S. State Park visits (SPV), and visits to Japan's National Parks (JapanNPV).
Fig. 5. U.S. per capita participation in camping as determined from annual survey data. Linear regressions with equations are included for comparison of slopes. Prefix mm indicates survey data obtained from Mediamark. Included are annual data for per capita participation in overnight camping at any nature site (Camping), camping at National Parks and National Forests (mmCampingNP/NF), and camping at State Parks and State Forests (mmCampingSP/SF).
Table 4. High-probability peaks in long-term per capita nature recreation time series
Â
Variable | Peak year | Last year of data | Decline since peak (%) | Annual decline (%) | Data points (N) |
Ducks | 1953 | 2006 | 66 | 1.2 | 72 |
Fishing | 1981 | 2005 | 25 | 1.0 | 53 |
NPV | 1987 | 2006 | 23 | 1.2 | 68 |
JapanNPV | 1991 | 2005 | 18 | 1.3 | 56 |
ATHiking | 2000 | 2005 | 18 | 3.6 | 71 |
Only those time series are included for which the completeness of data and length of the time series (at least 50 years) made us confident that we had identified the peak. ATHiking is based on a much smaller population of participants than the other time series.
Table 5. Correlations among longitudinal fishing, hunting, and duck license data
Â
Long-term | Short-term comparisons of time series. | |||
Fishing | Hunting | Ducks | ||
Fishing | Â | Â | Â | |
Hunting | 0.530 <0.0005** | 0.475 0.001** | Â | Â |
Ducks | Â | -0.663 <0.0005** | Â |
The results of short-term (1988-present) and long-term (entirety of available data) time series comparisons. Results of short-term correlation comparisons among these data are given in the upper half of the table, long-term comparisons in the lower half of the table. Shaded cells represent redundant comparisons and are left blank. Correlation coefficients and P values are reported for time-series comparisons that are significantly correlated; blank cells indicate no significant result. Where time series were significantly correlated in both their raw form and in annual year-to-year percentage changes, cells are highlighted yellow, split, and the raw (Left) and then difference model (Right) results are given. Flags indicate levels of significance for a two-tailed test (*, significant at the 0.05 level; **, significant at the 0.01 level).
Table 6. Most highly correlated time series
Â
Variable 1 | Variable 2 | Raw data | Difference model | |||||
rS | P | N | rS | P | N | |||
NPV | NFV | 0.931 | <0.0005 | 61 | 0.494 | <0.0005 | 59 | |
SPV | JapanNPV | 0.928 | <0.0005 | 25 | 0.636 | 0.011 | 15 | |
SPV | BLMV | 0.881 | <0.0005 | 12 | 0.762 | 0.028 | 8 | |
NPV | JapanNPV | 0.824 | <0.0005 | 56 | 0.380 | <0.0005 | 55 | |
NFV | JapanNPV | 0.857 | <0.0005 | 50 | 0.571 | <0.0005 | 48 | |
Fishing | Hunting | 0.530 | <0.0005 | 52 | 0.475 | 0.001 | 49 |
Two Spearman correlations were performed: (i) pairwise comparisons of raw data in time series, and (ii) comparisons of annual year-to-year percentage changes in a difference model. All data available to us were used. Variables in this table represent all those among our time-series comparisons that were significantly correlated by both methods.
Table 7. The 13 largest of high GNI (gross national income) countries
Â
GNI | Area | Country |
2 | 61 | Norway |
7 | 3 | United States |
9 | 55 | Sweden |
11 | 62 | Japan |
12 | 79 | United Kingdom |
13 | 65 | Finland |
18 | 48 | France |
19 | 63 | Germany |
20 | 2 | Canada |
21 | 6 | Australia |
26 | 71 | Italy |
31 | 75 | New Zealand |
33 | 51 | Spain |
We used the World Bank definition of high-income countries. Those countries for which we were able to obtain sufficient data to analyze are shaded.