Evidence for a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation

Pergams and Zaradic. 10.1073/pnas.0709893105.

Supporting Information

Files in this Data Supplement:

SI Figure 3
SI Figure 4
SI Figure 5
SI Table 4
SI Table 5
SI Table 6
SI Table 7




SI Figure 3

Fig. 3. Annual per capita fishing licenses (variable Fishing, 1950-2005, n = 53), hunting licenses (variable Hunting, range of time series 1950-2005, n = 52), and duck stamps (Ducks, 1935-2004, n = 70). Linear regressions with accompanying equations are included for declines from identifiable peaks in Fishing (1981) and Ducks (1953).





SI Figure 4

Fig. 4. Nature variables with the greatest per capita participation as identified from Fig. 2. Linear regressions with equations are included for comparison of slopes. Included are annual per capita U.S. National Park visits (NPV), U.S. National Forest visits (NFV), U.S. State Park visits (SPV), and visits to Japan's National Parks (JapanNPV).





SI Figure 5

Fig. 5. U.S. per capita participation in camping as determined from annual survey data. Linear regressions with equations are included for comparison of slopes. Prefix mm indicates survey data obtained from Mediamark. Included are annual data for per capita participation in overnight camping at any nature site (Camping), camping at National Parks and National Forests (mmCampingNP/NF), and camping at State Parks and State Forests (mmCampingSP/SF).





Table 4. High-probability peaks in long-term per capita nature recreation time series

 

Variable

Peak year

Last year of data

Decline since peak (%)

Annual decline (%)

Data points (N)

Ducks

1953

2006

66

1.2

72

Fishing

1981

2005

25

1.0

53

NPV

1987

2006

23

1.2

68

JapanNPV

1991

2005

18

1.3

56

ATHiking

2000

2005

18

3.6

71

Only those time series are included for which the completeness of data and length of the time series (at least 50 years) made us confident that we had identified the peak. ATHiking is based on a much smaller population of participants than the other time series.





Table 5. Correlations among longitudinal fishing, hunting, and duck license data

 

Long-term

Short-term comparisons of time series.

Fishing

Hunting

Ducks

Fishing

 

 

 

Hunting

0.530 <0.0005**

0.475 0.001**

 

 

Ducks

 

-0.663 <0.0005**

 

The results of short-term (1988-present) and long-term (entirety of available data) time series comparisons. Results of short-term correlation comparisons among these data are given in the upper half of the table, long-term comparisons in the lower half of the table. Shaded cells represent redundant comparisons and are left blank. Correlation coefficients and P values are reported for time-series comparisons that are significantly correlated; blank cells indicate no significant result. Where time series were significantly correlated in both their raw form and in annual year-to-year percentage changes, cells are highlighted yellow, split, and the raw (Left) and then difference model (Right) results are given. Flags indicate levels of significance for a two-tailed test (*, significant at the 0.05 level; **, significant at the 0.01 level).





Table 6. Most highly correlated time series

 

Variable 1

Variable 2

Raw data

Difference model

rS

P

N

rS

P

N

NPV

NFV

0.931

<0.0005

61

0.494

<0.0005

59

SPV

JapanNPV

0.928

<0.0005

25

0.636

0.011

15

SPV

BLMV

0.881

<0.0005

12

0.762

0.028

8

NPV

JapanNPV

0.824

<0.0005

56

0.380

<0.0005

55

NFV

JapanNPV

0.857

<0.0005

50

0.571

<0.0005

48

Fishing

Hunting

0.530

<0.0005

52

0.475

0.001

49

Two Spearman correlations were performed: (i) pairwise comparisons of raw data in time series, and (ii) comparisons of annual year-to-year percentage changes in a difference model. All data available to us were used. Variables in this table represent all those among our time-series comparisons that were significantly correlated by both methods.





Table 7. The 13 largest of high GNI (gross national income) countries

 

GNI

Area

Country

2

61

Norway

7

3

United States

9

55

Sweden

11

62

Japan

12

79

United Kingdom

13

65

Finland

18

48

France

19

63

Germany

20

2

Canada

21

6

Australia

26

71

Italy

31

75

New Zealand

33

51

Spain

We used the World Bank definition of high-income countries. Those countries for which we were able to obtain sufficient data to analyze are shaded.