Numerical results of all main analyses underlying the regression models in figures as well as all robustness tests discussed in the main text null device 1 [1] "------Figure 1a------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -10.0709 -0.6370 -0.1330 0.3072 25.1368 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.433e+03 2.550e+03 0.954 0.340095 year.min -3.959e+00 3.892e+00 -1.017 0.309099 I(year.min^2) 2.129e-03 1.980e-03 1.075 0.282331 I(year.min^3) -3.788e-07 3.358e-07 -1.128 0.259227 discmathematics 3.089e+03 1.694e+04 0.182 0.855313 discearth and space -2.405e+04 1.216e+04 -1.977 0.048032 * discphysics 8.976e+03 7.066e+03 1.270 0.204009 discchemistry -8.453e+03 4.855e+03 -1.741 0.081657 . discbiology -7.025e+03 7.967e+03 -0.882 0.377908 discbiomedical research -1.358e+03 4.590e+03 -0.296 0.767393 discpsychology -3.643e+04 2.282e+04 -1.597 0.110299 discsocial sciences 7.546e+04 1.897e+04 3.977 7.00e-05 *** discarts&humanities 1.025e+05 1.993e+05 0.514 0.606967 discother -3.844e+04 1.092e+04 -3.519 0.000433 *** year.min:discmathematics -4.411e+00 2.597e+01 -0.170 0.865130 year.min:discearth and space 3.706e+01 1.855e+01 1.999 0.045666 * year.min:discphysics -1.338e+01 1.078e+01 -1.241 0.214582 year.min:discchemistry 1.319e+01 7.425e+00 1.776 0.075745 . year.min:discbiology 1.111e+01 1.217e+01 0.912 0.361519 year.min:discbiomedical research 2.244e+00 7.015e+00 0.320 0.748993 year.min:discpsychology 5.566e+01 3.477e+01 1.600 0.109501 year.min:discsocial sciences -1.150e+02 2.906e+01 -3.956 7.62e-05 *** year.min:discarts&humanities -1.542e+02 3.027e+02 -0.509 0.610492 year.min:discother 5.895e+01 1.666e+01 3.539 0.000402 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics 2.086e-03 1.327e-02 0.157 0.875044 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -1.904e-02 9.423e-03 -2.020 0.043391 * I(year.min^2):discphysics 6.639e-03 5.481e-03 1.211 0.225786 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -6.849e-03 3.785e-03 -1.810 0.070334 . I(year.min^2):discbiology -5.846e-03 6.198e-03 -0.943 0.345560 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -1.230e-03 3.573e-03 -0.344 0.730743 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -2.834e-02 1.767e-02 -1.604 0.108656 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences 5.837e-02 1.483e-02 3.935 8.32e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities 7.727e-02 1.532e-01 0.504 0.614100 I(year.min^2):discother -3.013e-02 8.466e-03 -3.559 0.000373 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics -3.267e-07 2.259e-06 -0.145 0.885011 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 3.258e-06 1.596e-06 2.042 0.041205 * I(year.min^3):discphysics -1.097e-06 9.289e-07 -1.181 0.237650 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 1.185e-06 6.430e-07 1.843 0.065383 . I(year.min^3):discbiology 1.025e-06 1.052e-06 0.974 0.330056 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 2.234e-07 6.065e-07 0.368 0.712661 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 4.811e-06 2.992e-06 1.608 0.107773 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences -9.876e-06 2.523e-06 -3.914 9.10e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities -1.290e-05 2.586e-05 -0.499 0.617780 I(year.min^3):discother 5.132e-06 1.434e-06 3.578 0.000346 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 1.317892) Null deviance: 108016 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 49763 on 41383 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 [1] "------Figure 1a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -10.1018 -0.5837 -0.1240 0.2738 24.6385 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -2.461e+01 1.013e+00 -24.279 < 2e-16 *** year.min 1.220e-02 5.094e-04 23.958 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -2.162e+01 1.226e+01 -1.763 0.077838 . discearth and space -2.682e+01 3.981e+00 -6.737 1.65e-11 *** discphysics -2.023e+01 2.703e+00 -7.484 7.47e-14 *** discchemistry -6.795e-01 2.923e+00 -0.232 0.816182 discbiology -2.539e+01 3.549e+00 -7.154 8.66e-13 *** discbiomedical research -8.288e+00 2.280e+00 -3.635 0.000279 *** discpsychology -2.665e+01 7.459e+00 -3.573 0.000354 *** discsocial sciences -4.303e+01 1.260e+01 -3.414 0.000641 *** discarts&humanities -9.940e+01 2.844e+01 -3.495 0.000474 *** discother -1.678e+01 4.126e+00 -4.067 4.78e-05 *** year.min:discmathematics 1.049e-02 6.161e-03 1.702 0.088719 . year.min:discearth and space 1.341e-02 1.999e-03 6.705 2.06e-11 *** year.min:discphysics 1.025e-02 1.358e-03 7.546 4.63e-14 *** year.min:discchemistry 2.815e-04 1.469e-03 0.192 0.848008 year.min:discbiology 1.262e-02 1.783e-03 7.081 1.47e-12 *** year.min:discbiomedical research 4.151e-03 1.146e-03 3.622 0.000293 *** year.min:discpsychology 1.318e-02 3.745e-03 3.518 0.000435 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 2.106e-02 6.333e-03 3.325 0.000887 *** year.min:discarts&humanities 4.856e-02 1.430e-02 3.395 0.000687 *** year.min:discother 8.212e-03 2.073e-03 3.962 7.45e-05 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 1.423502) Null deviance: 46034 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 29451 on 23730 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 null device 1 [1] "------Figure 1b------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.08264 -0.33864 0.00903 0.28945 1.44046 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.127e+04 2.091e+03 5.388 7.16e-08 *** year.min -1.734e+01 3.202e+00 -5.415 6.18e-08 *** I(year.min^2) 8.893e-03 1.635e-03 5.440 5.36e-08 *** I(year.min^3) -1.520e-06 2.781e-07 -5.464 4.67e-08 *** discmathematics -8.746e+03 9.930e+03 -0.881 0.378409 discearth and space -3.746e+04 9.445e+03 -3.966 7.31e-05 *** discphysics -1.327e+03 6.340e+03 -0.209 0.834185 discchemistry -2.032e+04 4.525e+03 -4.491 7.12e-06 *** discbiology -1.093e+04 5.788e+03 -1.888 0.059089 . discbiomedical research -2.669e+03 4.006e+03 -0.666 0.505210 discpsychology -3.364e+04 1.089e+04 -3.088 0.002014 ** discsocial sciences -2.669e+04 7.766e+03 -3.437 0.000589 *** discarts&humanities -5.449e+04 4.290e+04 -1.270 0.203969 discother -3.455e+04 6.470e+03 -5.340 9.34e-08 *** year.min:discmathematics 1.362e+01 1.524e+01 0.894 0.371569 year.min:discearth and space 5.748e+01 1.444e+01 3.981 6.86e-05 *** year.min:discphysics 2.195e+00 9.702e+00 0.226 0.820996 year.min:discchemistry 3.136e+01 6.936e+00 4.522 6.14e-06 *** year.min:discbiology 1.681e+01 8.864e+00 1.897 0.057870 . year.min:discbiomedical research 4.156e+00 6.138e+00 0.677 0.498338 year.min:discpsychology 5.165e+01 1.667e+01 3.098 0.001952 ** year.min:discsocial sciences 4.109e+01 1.191e+01 3.450 0.000560 *** year.min:discarts&humanities 8.220e+01 6.519e+01 1.261 0.207368 year.min:discother 5.305e+01 9.899e+00 5.359 8.42e-08 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -7.064e-03 7.796e-03 -0.906 0.364897 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.939e-02 7.354e-03 -3.997 6.44e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discphysics -1.204e-03 4.949e-03 -0.243 0.807828 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.613e-02 3.543e-03 -4.553 5.30e-06 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology -8.623e-03 4.524e-03 -1.906 0.056676 . I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -2.155e-03 3.134e-03 -0.688 0.491676 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -2.643e-02 8.506e-03 -3.107 0.001893 ** I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -2.108e-02 6.086e-03 -3.463 0.000534 *** I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -4.132e-02 3.303e-02 -1.251 0.210849 I(year.min^2):discother -2.715e-02 5.048e-03 -5.378 7.59e-08 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 1.221e-06 1.329e-06 0.918 0.358391 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 5.009e-06 1.249e-06 4.011 6.04e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discphysics 2.190e-07 8.415e-07 0.260 0.794675 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 2.765e-06 6.033e-07 4.584 4.58e-06 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology 1.474e-06 7.697e-07 1.915 0.055508 . I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 3.723e-07 5.335e-07 0.698 0.485212 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 4.506e-06 1.446e-06 3.116 0.001836 ** I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 3.604e-06 1.037e-06 3.476 0.000510 *** I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 6.924e-06 5.577e-06 1.242 0.214414 I(year.min^3):discother 4.630e-06 8.580e-07 5.397 6.83e-08 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.1784519) Null deviance: 8179.9 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 7855.8 on 41383 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 1b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.09147 -0.32862 0.00871 0.28576 1.45431 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -5.997e+00 1.401e+00 -4.281 1.87e-05 *** year.min 3.065e-03 7.043e-04 4.352 1.35e-05 *** discmathematics -1.620e+01 9.794e+00 -1.654 0.09810 . discearth and space -2.236e+01 4.765e+00 -4.691 2.73e-06 *** discphysics -3.694e+00 4.269e+00 -0.865 0.38689 discchemistry -2.413e+01 3.737e+00 -6.457 1.09e-10 *** discbiology -1.256e+01 3.911e+00 -3.210 0.00133 ** discbiomedical research 1.732e+00 2.979e+00 0.582 0.56088 discpsychology -1.969e+01 7.452e+00 -2.642 0.00824 ** discsocial sciences -3.884e+00 7.974e+00 -0.487 0.62623 discarts&humanities 2.484e+01 7.867e+00 3.157 0.00160 ** discother -2.239e+01 3.924e+00 -5.707 1.17e-08 *** year.min:discmathematics 8.138e-03 4.925e-03 1.652 0.09845 . year.min:discearth and space 1.123e-02 2.395e-03 4.690 2.75e-06 *** year.min:discphysics 1.935e-03 2.147e-03 0.901 0.36749 year.min:discchemistry 1.214e-02 1.879e-03 6.460 1.07e-10 *** year.min:discbiology 6.269e-03 1.966e-03 3.188 0.00143 ** year.min:discbiomedical research -8.578e-04 1.498e-03 -0.573 0.56678 year.min:discpsychology 9.893e-03 3.745e-03 2.642 0.00825 ** year.min:discsocial sciences 1.877e-03 4.009e-03 0.468 0.63961 year.min:discarts&humanities -1.263e-02 3.959e-03 -3.191 0.00142 ** year.min:discother 1.119e-02 1.972e-03 5.674 1.41e-08 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.1775708) Null deviance: 4643.0 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 4475.2 on 23730 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 null device 1 [1] "------Figure 2a------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -17.271 -1.712 -1.213 -0.331 46.968 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.549e+04 2.274e+03 11.212 < 2e-16 *** year.min -3.929e+01 3.481e+00 -11.288 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^2) 2.018e-02 1.776e-03 11.365 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^3) -3.456e-06 3.020e-07 -11.442 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -2.395e+04 1.133e+04 -2.114 0.034534 * discearth and space -3.198e+04 1.058e+04 -3.022 0.002509 ** discphysics -1.829e+03 6.864e+03 -0.266 0.789880 discchemistry -2.136e+04 4.758e+03 -4.489 7.19e-06 *** discbiology -2.428e+04 6.888e+03 -3.525 0.000423 *** discbiomedical research -1.766e+03 4.175e+03 -0.423 0.672373 discpsychology -5.150e+04 1.230e+04 -4.188 2.82e-05 *** discsocial sciences -3.775e+04 8.958e+03 -4.214 2.51e-05 *** discarts&humanities 4.236e+04 5.514e+04 0.768 0.442378 discother -4.635e+04 8.070e+03 -5.744 9.31e-09 *** year.min:discmathematics 3.691e+01 1.740e+01 2.122 0.033875 * year.min:discearth and space 4.912e+01 1.617e+01 3.037 0.002390 ** year.min:discphysics 2.831e+00 1.050e+01 0.270 0.787380 year.min:discchemistry 3.293e+01 7.291e+00 4.517 6.30e-06 *** year.min:discbiology 3.734e+01 1.055e+01 3.540 0.000400 *** year.min:discbiomedical research 2.751e+00 6.397e+00 0.430 0.667133 year.min:discpsychology 7.925e+01 1.882e+01 4.211 2.55e-05 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 5.806e+01 1.374e+01 4.226 2.39e-05 *** year.min:discarts&humanities -6.534e+01 8.379e+01 -0.780 0.435507 year.min:discother 7.121e+01 1.234e+01 5.769 8.02e-09 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -1.896e-02 8.905e-03 -2.129 0.033234 * I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.515e-02 8.240e-03 -3.052 0.002278 ** I(year.min^2):discphysics -1.460e-03 5.350e-03 -0.273 0.785004 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.692e-02 3.724e-03 -4.544 5.52e-06 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology -1.913e-02 5.382e-03 -3.555 0.000378 *** I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -1.427e-03 3.267e-03 -0.437 0.662296 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -4.064e-02 9.600e-03 -4.233 2.31e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -2.976e-02 7.023e-03 -4.237 2.27e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities 3.359e-02 4.245e-02 0.791 0.428732 I(year.min^2):discother -3.647e-02 6.293e-03 -5.795 6.90e-09 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 3.246e-06 1.519e-06 2.137 0.032609 * I(year.min^3):discearth and space 4.290e-06 1.399e-06 3.066 0.002173 ** I(year.min^3):discphysics 2.506e-07 9.090e-07 0.276 0.782756 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 2.899e-06 6.340e-07 4.572 4.84e-06 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology 3.268e-06 9.154e-07 3.570 0.000358 *** I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 2.463e-07 5.560e-07 0.443 0.657857 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 6.946e-06 1.632e-06 4.256 2.09e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 5.084e-06 1.197e-06 4.249 2.16e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities -5.754e-06 7.167e-06 -0.803 0.422055 I(year.min^3):discother 6.224e-06 1.069e-06 5.820 5.93e-09 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 3.671526) Null deviance: 164119 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 151939 on 41383 degrees of freedom AIC: 68785 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 2a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -17.218 -1.756 -1.267 -0.374 47.570 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.142e+01 1.451e+00 14.765 < 2e-16 *** year.min -1.032e-02 7.293e-04 -14.157 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -2.907e+01 1.206e+01 -2.411 0.015921 * discearth and space -1.249e+01 5.274e+00 -2.369 0.017867 * discphysics 8.909e+00 4.167e+00 2.138 0.032546 * discchemistry -1.399e+01 3.963e+00 -3.529 0.000418 *** discbiology -1.972e+01 4.467e+00 -4.415 1.01e-05 *** discbiomedical research 3.699e+00 3.212e+00 1.151 0.249616 discpsychology -4.118e+01 8.492e+00 -4.850 1.24e-06 *** discsocial sciences -1.305e+01 1.025e+01 -1.273 0.203151 discarts&humanities 3.071e+01 1.018e+01 3.017 0.002554 ** discother -3.615e+01 4.791e+00 -7.545 4.70e-14 *** year.min:discmathematics 1.467e-02 6.063e-03 2.420 0.015509 * year.min:discearth and space 6.258e-03 2.650e-03 2.362 0.018198 * year.min:discphysics -4.500e-03 2.095e-03 -2.148 0.031763 * year.min:discchemistry 7.077e-03 1.992e-03 3.553 0.000381 *** year.min:discbiology 9.881e-03 2.245e-03 4.401 1.08e-05 *** year.min:discbiomedical research -1.905e-03 1.615e-03 -1.179 0.238238 year.min:discpsychology 2.077e-02 4.265e-03 4.869 1.13e-06 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 6.638e-03 5.154e-03 1.288 0.197831 year.min:discarts&humanities -1.529e-02 5.123e-03 -2.985 0.002839 ** year.min:discother 1.817e-02 2.407e-03 7.546 4.65e-14 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 4.066178) Null deviance: 100185 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 96490 on 23730 degrees of freedom AIC: 40997 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 null device 1 [1] "------Figure 2b------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.45332 -0.34921 0.02535 0.32715 1.54090 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 4.402e+03 2.634e+03 1.671 0.09469 . year.min -6.818e+00 4.036e+00 -1.689 0.09119 . I(year.min^2) 3.521e-03 2.062e-03 1.708 0.08768 . I(year.min^3) -6.061e-07 3.510e-07 -1.727 0.08417 . discmathematics 3.659e+03 1.169e+04 0.313 0.75435 discearth and space -3.514e+04 1.165e+04 -3.017 0.00256 ** discphysics 9.953e+03 7.953e+03 1.251 0.21078 discchemistry -1.533e+04 5.899e+03 -2.599 0.00935 ** discbiology 2.988e+03 7.084e+03 0.422 0.67320 discbiomedical research 3.347e+03 5.074e+03 0.660 0.50952 discpsychology -1.643e+04 1.270e+04 -1.294 0.19580 discsocial sciences -1.403e+04 8.895e+03 -1.577 0.11485 discarts&humanities -2.921e+04 4.548e+04 -0.642 0.52066 discother -8.007e+03 7.696e+03 -1.040 0.29814 year.min:discmathematics -5.547e+00 1.795e+01 -0.309 0.75734 year.min:discearth and space 5.382e+01 1.781e+01 3.022 0.00251 ** year.min:discphysics -1.514e+01 1.218e+01 -1.243 0.21379 year.min:discchemistry 2.371e+01 9.046e+00 2.621 0.00876 ** year.min:discbiology -4.599e+00 1.086e+01 -0.424 0.67185 year.min:discbiomedical research -5.127e+00 7.778e+00 -0.659 0.50981 year.min:discpsychology 2.515e+01 1.945e+01 1.293 0.19616 year.min:discsocial sciences 2.155e+01 1.364e+01 1.579 0.11424 year.min:discarts&humanities 4.375e+01 6.913e+01 0.633 0.52677 year.min:discother 1.227e+01 1.178e+01 1.041 0.29790 I(year.min^2):discmathematics 2.803e-03 9.187e-03 0.305 0.76030 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.748e-02 9.077e-03 -3.027 0.00247 ** I(year.min^2):discphysics 7.676e-03 6.216e-03 1.235 0.21689 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.222e-02 4.624e-03 -2.643 0.00821 ** I(year.min^2):discbiology 2.359e-03 5.544e-03 0.425 0.67053 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 2.618e-03 3.974e-03 0.659 0.51005 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -1.282e-02 9.930e-03 -1.292 0.19653 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -1.103e-02 6.974e-03 -1.582 0.11366 I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -2.184e-02 3.502e-02 -0.624 0.53292 I(year.min^2):discother -6.263e-03 6.013e-03 -1.042 0.29759 I(year.min^3):discmathematics -4.720e-07 1.567e-06 -0.301 0.76324 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 4.675e-06 1.542e-06 3.032 0.00243 ** I(year.min^3):discphysics -1.297e-06 1.058e-06 -1.226 0.22006 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 2.100e-06 7.877e-07 2.666 0.00769 ** I(year.min^3):discbiology -4.031e-07 9.437e-07 -0.427 0.66927 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -4.456e-07 6.767e-07 -0.658 0.51022 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 2.180e-06 1.689e-06 1.290 0.19692 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 1.883e-06 1.188e-06 1.584 0.11311 I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 3.633e-06 5.915e-06 0.614 0.53911 I(year.min^3):discother 1.066e-06 1.023e-06 1.042 0.29723 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2288882) Null deviance: 12565 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 12261 on 41383 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 2b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.33192 -0.32159 0.04292 0.32982 1.54993 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -8.539e-01 2.034e+00 -0.420 0.6747 year.min 2.593e-04 1.023e-03 0.253 0.7999 discmathematics -2.557e+00 1.282e+01 -0.199 0.8419 discearth and space -1.676e+01 6.678e+00 -2.510 0.0121 * discphysics 4.727e+00 6.157e+00 0.768 0.4426 discchemistry -2.648e+01 5.579e+00 -4.747 2.08e-06 *** discbiology -1.704e-01 5.478e+00 -0.031 0.9752 discbiomedical research 4.352e+00 4.319e+00 1.007 0.3137 discpsychology -3.620e+00 9.927e+00 -0.365 0.7153 discsocial sciences 4.248e+00 9.766e+00 0.435 0.6636 discarts&humanities 2.118e+01 8.997e+00 2.355 0.0185 * discother -1.933e+00 5.421e+00 -0.357 0.7214 year.min:discmathematics 1.386e-03 6.448e-03 0.215 0.8299 year.min:discearth and space 8.458e-03 3.357e-03 2.520 0.0117 * year.min:discphysics -2.291e-03 3.096e-03 -0.740 0.4594 year.min:discchemistry 1.329e-02 2.804e-03 4.738 2.18e-06 *** year.min:discbiology 8.300e-05 2.754e-03 0.030 0.9760 year.min:discbiomedical research -2.174e-03 2.171e-03 -1.001 0.3169 year.min:discpsychology 1.901e-03 4.989e-03 0.381 0.7032 year.min:discsocial sciences -2.033e-03 4.910e-03 -0.414 0.6789 year.min:discarts&humanities -1.055e-02 4.527e-03 -2.329 0.0199 * year.min:discother 9.592e-04 2.725e-03 0.352 0.7248 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2416212) Null deviance: 7650.2 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 7561.0 on 23730 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Same as Figure 2b, for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.1340 -0.8560 -0.1184 0.3475 2.3130 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.425e+04 5.231e+03 2.725 0.00643 ** year.min -2.255e+01 8.003e+00 -2.818 0.00484 ** I(year.min^2) 1.187e-02 4.081e-03 2.910 0.00362 ** I(year.min^3) -2.082e-06 6.937e-07 -3.001 0.00269 ** discmathematics -2.408e+04 3.236e+04 -0.744 0.45686 discearth and space -2.366e+04 2.225e+04 -1.063 0.28758 discphysics -1.085e+04 1.588e+04 -0.683 0.49453 discchemistry -2.369e+04 9.796e+03 -2.419 0.01558 * discbiology -1.507e+04 1.402e+04 -1.075 0.28259 discbiomedical research -6.804e+03 9.546e+03 -0.713 0.47602 discpsychology -4.667e+04 3.224e+04 -1.447 0.14778 discsocial sciences 4.873e+04 2.751e+04 1.771 0.07651 . discarts&humanities -1.156e+05 3.294e+05 -0.351 0.72567 discother -7.592e+04 1.907e+04 -3.981 6.88e-05 *** year.min:discmathematics 3.727e+01 4.952e+01 0.753 0.45169 year.min:discearth and space 3.658e+01 3.397e+01 1.077 0.28157 year.min:discphysics 1.682e+01 2.428e+01 0.693 0.48857 year.min:discchemistry 3.692e+01 1.501e+01 2.460 0.01391 * year.min:discbiology 2.340e+01 2.145e+01 1.091 0.27523 year.min:discbiomedical research 1.057e+01 1.462e+01 0.723 0.46942 year.min:discpsychology 7.182e+01 4.924e+01 1.458 0.14474 year.min:discsocial sciences -7.330e+01 4.217e+01 -1.738 0.08218 . year.min:discarts&humanities 1.768e+02 5.001e+02 0.354 0.72365 year.min:discother 1.165e+02 2.911e+01 4.003 6.25e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -1.923e-02 2.525e-02 -0.762 0.44635 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -1.885e-02 1.729e-02 -1.090 0.27559 I(year.min^2):discphysics -8.686e-03 1.237e-02 -0.702 0.48260 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.917e-02 7.666e-03 -2.500 0.01241 * I(year.min^2):discbiology -1.212e-02 1.094e-02 -1.108 0.26794 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -5.473e-03 7.458e-03 -0.734 0.46310 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -3.684e-02 2.507e-02 -1.470 0.14168 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences 3.672e-02 2.155e-02 1.705 0.08829 . I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -9.018e-02 2.531e-01 -0.356 0.72157 I(year.min^2):discother -5.962e-02 1.481e-02 -4.027 5.67e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 3.308e-06 4.292e-06 0.771 0.44085 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 3.237e-06 2.933e-06 1.104 0.26962 I(year.min^3):discphysics 1.495e-06 2.101e-06 0.712 0.47663 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 3.315e-06 1.305e-06 2.540 0.01108 * I(year.min^3):discbiology 2.090e-06 1.859e-06 1.125 0.26073 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 9.434e-07 1.269e-06 0.744 0.45706 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 6.299e-06 4.253e-06 1.481 0.13862 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences -6.129e-06 3.669e-06 -1.670 0.09483 . I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 1.533e-05 4.268e-05 0.359 0.71944 I(year.min^3):discother 1.017e-05 2.510e-06 4.050 5.13e-05 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.3824172) Null deviance: 19615 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 18099 on 41383 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Same as Figure 2b - 1980-1998 - for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.1541 -0.9132 -0.1763 0.3559 2.3378 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.169e+01 3.383e+00 6.411 1.47e-10 *** year.min -1.131e-02 1.701e-03 -6.651 2.97e-11 *** discmathematics -5.913e+01 2.101e+01 -2.815 0.004880 ** discearth and space -3.111e+01 1.021e+01 -3.048 0.002304 ** discphysics -4.104e-01 9.807e+00 -0.042 0.966618 discchemistry -3.891e+01 8.514e+00 -4.570 4.91e-06 *** discbiology -3.068e+01 8.807e+00 -3.484 0.000495 *** discbiomedical research 2.943e+00 7.236e+00 0.407 0.684206 discpsychology -5.845e+01 1.594e+01 -3.668 0.000245 *** discsocial sciences -8.718e+01 2.095e+01 -4.162 3.17e-05 *** discarts&humanities -1.339e+02 4.343e+01 -3.084 0.002042 ** discother -5.985e+01 8.486e+00 -7.053 1.80e-12 *** year.min:discmathematics 2.984e-02 1.056e-02 2.826 0.004720 ** year.min:discearth and space 1.577e-02 5.130e-03 3.074 0.002118 ** year.min:discphysics 3.423e-04 4.932e-03 0.069 0.944668 year.min:discchemistry 1.963e-02 4.280e-03 4.587 4.52e-06 *** year.min:discbiology 1.546e-02 4.428e-03 3.492 0.000480 *** year.min:discbiomedical research -1.477e-03 3.639e-03 -0.406 0.684796 year.min:discpsychology 2.951e-02 8.009e-03 3.685 0.000229 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 4.367e-02 1.053e-02 4.148 3.36e-05 *** year.min:discarts&humanities 6.635e-02 2.183e-02 3.039 0.002375 ** year.min:discother 3.015e-02 4.265e-03 7.070 1.59e-12 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.4144262) Null deviance: 11598 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 11149 on 23730 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 null device 1 [1] "------Figure 3a, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -18.160 -1.673 -1.177 -0.320 45.403 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.919e+04 2.641e+03 7.268 3.70e-13 *** year.min -2.957e+01 4.046e+00 -7.310 2.72e-13 *** I(year.min^2) 1.519e-02 2.066e-03 7.353 1.98e-13 *** I(year.min^3) -2.601e-06 3.516e-07 -7.397 1.42e-13 *** count.goodaustralia -5.681e+03 1.679e+04 -0.338 0.735093 count.goodbelgium -9.978e+03 1.943e+04 -0.514 0.607478 count.goodcanada -1.785e+04 8.102e+03 -2.203 0.027585 * count.gooddenmark 4.278e+04 2.519e+04 1.698 0.089458 . count.goodfinland -1.222e+05 1.217e+05 -1.004 0.315354 count.goodfrance -3.259e+04 2.666e+04 -1.222 0.221562 count.goodgermany -1.787e+05 4.875e+04 -3.666 0.000247 *** count.gooditaly -2.230e+05 1.510e+05 -1.477 0.139816 count.goodnetherlands 6.804e+02 6.031e+03 0.113 0.910174 count.goodnew-zealand -6.822e+03 2.009e+04 -0.340 0.734188 count.goodother -5.458e+02 1.746e+04 -0.031 0.975058 count.goodportugal 1.196e+04 2.730e+04 0.438 0.661252 count.goodspain -5.082e+04 2.475e+04 -2.053 0.040086 * count.goodsweden 1.777e+04 1.970e+04 0.902 0.366953 count.gooduk 6.873e+03 3.602e+03 1.908 0.056427 . year.min:count.goodaustralia 8.598e+00 2.558e+01 0.336 0.736770 year.min:count.goodbelgium 1.544e+01 2.976e+01 0.519 0.603931 year.min:count.goodcanada 2.729e+01 1.238e+01 2.203 0.027570 * year.min:count.gooddenmark -6.557e+01 3.859e+01 -1.699 0.089288 . year.min:count.goodfinland 1.855e+02 1.847e+02 1.004 0.315367 year.min:count.goodfrance 4.952e+01 4.064e+01 1.219 0.223034 year.min:count.goodgermany 2.713e+02 7.403e+01 3.665 0.000248 *** year.min:count.gooditaly 3.398e+02 2.289e+02 1.484 0.137756 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -1.001e+00 9.217e+00 -0.109 0.913484 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 1.042e+01 3.070e+01 0.340 0.734196 year.min:count.goodother 9.484e-01 2.678e+01 0.035 0.971747 year.min:count.goodportugal -1.797e+01 4.169e+01 -0.431 0.666343 year.min:count.goodspain 7.779e+01 3.769e+01 2.064 0.039034 * year.min:count.goodsweden -2.757e+01 3.011e+01 -0.915 0.359967 year.min:count.gooduk -1.050e+01 5.522e+00 -1.902 0.057160 . I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -4.338e-03 1.299e-02 -0.334 0.738420 I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -7.962e-03 1.520e-02 -0.524 0.600320 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada -1.391e-02 6.310e-03 -2.204 0.027547 * I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark 3.349e-02 1.970e-02 1.700 0.089136 . I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland -9.382e-02 9.344e-02 -1.004 0.315358 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -2.508e-02 2.065e-02 -1.215 0.224512 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -1.373e-01 3.747e-02 -3.665 0.000248 *** I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly -1.725e-01 1.156e-01 -1.492 0.135714 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 4.898e-04 4.695e-03 0.104 0.916907 I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand -5.308e-03 1.563e-02 -0.340 0.734173 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -5.436e-04 1.369e-02 -0.040 0.968326 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal 8.997e-03 2.122e-02 0.424 0.671545 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -3.969e-02 1.913e-02 -2.075 0.038016 * I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden 1.425e-02 1.534e-02 0.929 0.353094 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 5.350e-03 2.821e-03 1.896 0.057938 . I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 7.294e-07 2.198e-06 0.332 0.740043 I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 1.369e-06 2.586e-06 0.529 0.596651 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada 2.362e-06 1.072e-06 2.204 0.027515 * I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark -5.700e-06 3.351e-06 -1.701 0.089000 . I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland 1.582e-05 1.575e-05 1.004 0.315327 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 4.234e-06 3.497e-06 1.211 0.225999 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 2.316e-05 6.323e-06 3.664 0.000249 *** I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly 2.920e-05 1.947e-05 1.500 0.133690 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -7.962e-08 7.970e-07 -0.100 0.920430 I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand 9.011e-07 2.653e-06 0.340 0.734124 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 1.030e-07 2.333e-06 0.044 0.964799 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal -1.500e-06 3.599e-06 -0.417 0.676850 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 6.749e-06 3.236e-06 2.086 0.037030 * I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden -2.454e-06 2.606e-06 -0.942 0.346337 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -9.081e-07 4.804e-07 -1.890 0.058762 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 3.644478) Null deviance: 164119 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 150747 on 41363 degrees of freedom AIC: 68499 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 3a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -17.836 -1.691 -1.206 -0.356 45.810 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.439e+01 2.104e+00 11.591 < 2e-16 *** year.min -1.180e-02 1.058e-03 -11.155 < 2e-16 *** count.goodaustralia -5.502e+00 5.756e+00 -0.956 0.339108 count.goodbelgium -2.999e+01 1.174e+01 -2.555 0.010625 * count.goodcanada -2.590e+01 4.985e+00 -5.196 2.06e-07 *** count.gooddenmark 9.820e+00 1.231e+01 0.798 0.425010 count.goodfinland -1.626e+01 1.319e+01 -1.232 0.217822 count.goodfrance -5.807e+00 9.431e+00 -0.616 0.538097 count.goodgermany 1.298e+00 6.663e+00 0.195 0.845500 count.gooditaly -5.809e+01 1.152e+01 -5.043 4.61e-07 *** count.goodnetherlands -5.828e+00 2.819e+00 -2.068 0.038696 * count.goodnew-zealand -1.234e+00 1.191e+01 -0.104 0.917507 count.goodother -3.450e+01 1.398e+01 -2.468 0.013604 * count.goodportugal -2.424e+01 6.931e+00 -3.498 0.000470 *** count.goodspain -1.081e+01 4.934e+00 -2.191 0.028435 * count.goodsweden 1.317e+01 1.012e+01 1.302 0.193094 count.gooduk -6.167e+00 3.187e+00 -1.935 0.052986 . year.min:count.goodaustralia 2.770e-03 2.893e-03 0.957 0.338424 year.min:count.goodbelgium 1.505e-02 5.894e-03 2.553 0.010692 * year.min:count.goodcanada 1.301e-02 2.506e-03 5.191 2.11e-07 *** year.min:count.gooddenmark -4.946e-03 6.183e-03 -0.800 0.423782 year.min:count.goodfinland 8.210e-03 6.630e-03 1.238 0.215573 year.min:count.goodfrance 2.847e-03 4.740e-03 0.601 0.548160 year.min:count.goodgermany -6.129e-04 3.347e-03 -0.183 0.854702 year.min:count.gooditaly 2.909e-02 5.788e-03 5.026 5.06e-07 *** year.min:count.goodnetherlands 2.894e-03 1.417e-03 2.042 0.041131 * year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 5.731e-04 5.987e-03 0.096 0.923748 year.min:count.goodother 1.735e-02 7.023e-03 2.471 0.013490 * year.min:count.goodportugal 1.215e-02 3.480e-03 3.491 0.000482 *** year.min:count.goodspain 5.245e-03 2.481e-03 2.114 0.034529 * year.min:count.goodsweden -6.625e-03 5.086e-03 -1.302 0.192791 year.min:count.gooduk 3.107e-03 1.602e-03 1.939 0.052467 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 4.001051) Null deviance: 100185 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 94905 on 23720 degrees of freedom AIC: 40624 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 null device 1 [1] "------Figure 3b, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.47639 -0.32061 0.01918 0.31912 1.76958 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.389e+04 3.045e+03 4.562 5.09e-06 *** year.min -2.138e+01 4.668e+00 -4.580 4.66e-06 *** I(year.min^2) 1.097e-02 2.386e-03 4.598 4.27e-06 *** I(year.min^3) -1.876e-06 4.063e-07 -4.617 3.91e-06 *** count.goodaustralia -2.941e+04 1.770e+04 -1.662 0.096563 . count.goodbelgium -2.315e+04 2.329e+04 -0.994 0.320186 count.goodcanada -6.805e+03 8.116e+03 -0.838 0.401816 count.gooddenmark 9.858e+03 2.764e+04 0.357 0.721335 count.goodfinland -2.859e+05 1.554e+05 -1.840 0.065744 . count.goodfrance -8.357e+03 2.301e+04 -0.363 0.716478 count.goodgermany -1.135e+05 5.805e+04 -1.955 0.050566 . count.gooditaly -3.368e+05 1.758e+05 -1.916 0.055391 . count.goodnetherlands -2.552e+03 6.803e+03 -0.375 0.707532 count.goodnew-zealand 5.324e+03 1.836e+04 0.290 0.771853 count.goodother 6.017e+03 1.882e+04 0.320 0.749179 count.goodportugal -2.031e+04 2.739e+04 -0.742 0.458238 count.goodspain -7.264e+04 1.966e+04 -3.695 0.000220 *** count.goodsweden -3.119e+01 1.939e+04 -0.002 0.998716 count.gooduk -4.691e+03 4.129e+03 -1.136 0.255915 year.min:count.goodaustralia 4.498e+01 2.698e+01 1.667 0.095447 . year.min:count.goodbelgium 3.593e+01 3.571e+01 1.006 0.314384 year.min:count.goodcanada 1.044e+01 1.242e+01 0.840 0.400947 year.min:count.gooddenmark -1.482e+01 4.235e+01 -0.350 0.726385 year.min:count.goodfinland 4.344e+02 2.359e+02 1.841 0.065574 . year.min:count.goodfrance 1.274e+01 3.519e+01 0.362 0.717318 year.min:count.goodgermany 1.728e+02 8.829e+01 1.957 0.050398 . year.min:count.gooditaly 5.127e+02 2.666e+02 1.923 0.054483 . year.min:count.goodnetherlands 4.029e+00 1.040e+01 0.387 0.698566 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -8.155e+00 2.810e+01 -0.290 0.771681 year.min:count.goodother -9.104e+00 2.889e+01 -0.315 0.752668 year.min:count.goodportugal 3.158e+01 4.183e+01 0.755 0.450300 year.min:count.goodspain 1.116e+02 3.003e+01 3.715 0.000204 *** year.min:count.goodsweden 7.595e-02 2.969e+01 0.003 0.997959 year.min:count.gooduk 7.297e+00 6.333e+00 1.152 0.249281 I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -2.293e-02 1.371e-02 -1.673 0.094357 . I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -1.858e-02 1.825e-02 -1.018 0.308657 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada -5.334e-03 6.340e-03 -0.841 0.400114 I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark 7.423e-03 2.163e-02 0.343 0.731441 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland -2.200e-01 1.194e-01 -1.843 0.065403 . I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -6.473e-03 1.793e-02 -0.361 0.718146 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -8.765e-02 4.477e-02 -1.958 0.050233 . I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly -2.601e-01 1.348e-01 -1.930 0.053585 . I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands -2.118e-03 5.303e-03 -0.399 0.689591 I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand 4.162e-03 1.433e-02 0.290 0.771570 I(year.min^2):count.goodother 4.590e-03 1.478e-02 0.311 0.756173 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -1.636e-02 2.130e-02 -0.768 0.442451 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -5.710e-02 1.529e-02 -3.734 0.000188 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden -5.342e-05 1.515e-02 -0.004 0.997188 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk -3.782e-03 3.238e-03 -1.168 0.242799 I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 3.897e-06 2.322e-06 1.678 0.093295 . I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 3.203e-06 3.109e-06 1.030 0.303009 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada 9.088e-07 1.078e-06 0.843 0.399318 I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark -1.239e-06 3.681e-06 -0.336 0.736502 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland 3.714e-05 2.015e-05 1.844 0.065233 . I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 1.096e-06 3.047e-06 0.360 0.718968 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 1.482e-05 7.565e-06 1.959 0.050070 . I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly 4.400e-05 2.271e-05 1.937 0.052698 . I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands 3.708e-07 9.009e-07 0.412 0.680630 I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -7.078e-07 2.437e-06 -0.290 0.771513 I(year.min^3):count.goodother -7.710e-07 2.520e-06 -0.306 0.759692 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 2.823e-06 3.614e-06 0.781 0.434697 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 9.740e-06 2.595e-06 3.754 0.000175 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden 1.162e-08 2.578e-06 0.005 0.996403 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk 6.532e-07 5.517e-07 1.184 0.236472 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2211799) Null deviance: 12565 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 11737 on 41363 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 3b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.37641 -0.37817 0.03351 0.31615 1.77715 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 7.843e+00 2.739e+00 2.864 0.004191 ** year.min -4.039e-03 1.377e-03 -2.934 0.003354 ** count.goodaustralia -1.016e+01 6.948e+00 -1.463 0.143516 count.goodbelgium -3.908e+01 1.476e+01 -2.648 0.008110 ** count.goodcanada -9.606e+00 6.234e+00 -1.541 0.123336 count.gooddenmark -2.243e+01 1.662e+01 -1.350 0.176990 count.goodfinland -2.549e+01 1.911e+01 -1.334 0.182242 count.goodfrance 1.490e+00 1.200e+01 0.124 0.901175 count.goodgermany -3.100e+00 9.342e+00 -0.332 0.740012 count.gooditaly -7.126e+01 1.522e+01 -4.682 2.86e-06 *** count.goodnetherlands -9.727e+00 3.779e+00 -2.574 0.010049 * count.goodnew-zealand -9.172e+00 1.395e+01 -0.658 0.510795 count.goodother -9.264e+00 1.625e+01 -0.570 0.568652 count.goodportugal -2.530e+01 8.671e+00 -2.917 0.003534 ** count.goodspain -1.997e+01 6.004e+00 -3.326 0.000883 *** count.goodsweden 1.376e+00 1.282e+01 0.107 0.914523 count.gooduk -7.368e+00 4.112e+00 -1.792 0.073162 . year.min:count.goodaustralia 5.092e-03 3.493e-03 1.458 0.144933 year.min:count.goodbelgium 1.960e-02 7.414e-03 2.644 0.008195 ** year.min:count.goodcanada 4.807e-03 3.135e-03 1.534 0.125117 year.min:count.gooddenmark 1.126e-02 8.348e-03 1.348 0.177561 year.min:count.goodfinland 1.274e-02 9.604e-03 1.326 0.184825 year.min:count.goodfrance -8.424e-04 6.031e-03 -0.140 0.888914 year.min:count.goodgermany 1.616e-03 4.693e-03 0.344 0.730571 year.min:count.gooditaly 3.567e-02 7.648e-03 4.664 3.11e-06 *** year.min:count.goodnetherlands 4.807e-03 1.900e-03 2.531 0.011392 * year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 4.564e-03 7.012e-03 0.651 0.515137 year.min:count.goodother 4.658e-03 8.168e-03 0.570 0.568457 year.min:count.goodportugal 1.260e-02 4.355e-03 2.893 0.003821 ** year.min:count.goodspain 9.696e-03 3.019e-03 3.211 0.001322 ** year.min:count.goodsweden -6.762e-04 6.445e-03 -0.105 0.916440 year.min:count.gooduk 3.697e-03 2.068e-03 1.788 0.073783 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2292673) Null deviance: 7650.2 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 7071.9 on 23720 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Same as Figure 3b for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.29405 -0.88629 -0.06782 0.36417 2.14799 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -8.611e+03 6.228e+03 -1.383 0.1668 year.min 1.283e+01 9.537e+00 1.345 0.1786 I(year.min^2) -6.366e-03 4.867e-03 -1.308 0.1909 I(year.min^3) 1.052e-06 8.278e-07 1.271 0.2036 count.goodaustralia -5.461e+04 3.705e+04 -1.474 0.1405 count.goodbelgium -5.871e+04 3.874e+04 -1.515 0.1297 count.goodcanada -2.536e+04 1.815e+04 -1.398 0.1623 count.gooddenmark 3.937e+04 5.182e+04 0.760 0.4474 count.goodfinland -5.893e+04 2.527e+05 -0.233 0.8156 count.goodfrance -1.476e+05 9.805e+04 -1.505 0.1322 count.goodgermany -1.884e+05 9.921e+04 -1.899 0.0576 . count.gooditaly -2.063e+05 2.855e+05 -0.723 0.4700 count.goodnetherlands 1.561e+04 1.362e+04 1.147 0.2515 count.goodnew-zealand -8.098e+04 5.943e+04 -1.363 0.1730 count.goodother -6.118e+04 5.748e+04 -1.064 0.2871 count.goodportugal -1.479e+05 1.917e+05 -0.772 0.4403 count.goodspain -2.614e+05 1.167e+05 -2.240 0.0251 * count.goodsweden -1.799e+05 1.623e+05 -1.109 0.2675 count.gooduk 1.749e+04 8.242e+03 2.122 0.0339 * year.min:count.goodaustralia 8.287e+01 5.641e+01 1.469 0.1419 year.min:count.goodbelgium 9.085e+01 5.936e+01 1.531 0.1259 year.min:count.goodcanada 3.875e+01 2.772e+01 1.398 0.1622 year.min:count.gooddenmark -6.048e+01 7.935e+01 -0.762 0.4459 year.min:count.goodfinland 8.858e+01 3.837e+02 0.231 0.8174 year.min:count.goodfrance 2.240e+02 1.491e+02 1.503 0.1328 year.min:count.goodgermany 2.865e+02 1.508e+02 1.900 0.0574 . year.min:count.gooditaly 3.137e+02 4.331e+02 0.724 0.4689 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -2.417e+01 2.079e+01 -1.162 0.2452 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 1.232e+02 9.059e+01 1.360 0.1737 year.min:count.goodother 9.326e+01 8.765e+01 1.064 0.2873 year.min:count.goodportugal 2.236e+02 2.903e+02 0.770 0.4412 year.min:count.goodspain 3.972e+02 1.770e+02 2.245 0.0248 * year.min:count.goodsweden 2.709e+02 2.463e+02 1.100 0.2715 year.min:count.gooduk -2.662e+01 1.263e+01 -2.108 0.0350 * I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -4.191e-02 2.864e-02 -1.464 0.1433 I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -4.685e-02 3.031e-02 -1.546 0.1222 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada -1.973e-02 1.412e-02 -1.398 0.1622 I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark 3.096e-02 4.049e-02 0.765 0.4445 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland -4.438e-02 1.942e-01 -0.229 0.8192 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -1.134e-01 7.554e-02 -1.501 0.1335 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -1.453e-01 7.639e-02 -1.902 0.0572 . I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly -1.590e-01 2.190e-01 -0.726 0.4678 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.246e-02 1.058e-02 1.178 0.2389 I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand -6.251e-02 4.603e-02 -1.358 0.1745 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -4.739e-02 4.455e-02 -1.064 0.2875 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -1.127e-01 1.466e-01 -0.769 0.4420 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -2.012e-01 8.947e-02 -2.249 0.0245 * I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden -1.359e-01 1.247e-01 -1.090 0.2755 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 1.351e-02 6.448e-03 2.095 0.0362 * I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 7.066e-06 4.845e-06 1.458 0.1447 I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 8.050e-06 5.158e-06 1.561 0.1186 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada 3.349e-06 2.396e-06 1.398 0.1622 I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark -5.283e-06 6.887e-06 -0.767 0.4431 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland 7.410e-06 3.276e-05 0.226 0.8210 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 1.912e-05 1.276e-05 1.498 0.1341 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 2.455e-05 1.290e-05 1.903 0.0570 . I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly 2.686e-05 3.690e-05 0.728 0.4667 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -2.143e-06 1.796e-06 -1.193 0.2328 I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand 1.057e-05 7.796e-06 1.356 0.1752 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 8.026e-06 7.548e-06 1.063 0.2876 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 1.893e-05 2.466e-05 0.767 0.4429 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 3.397e-05 1.508e-05 2.253 0.0242 * I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden 2.274e-05 2.103e-05 1.081 0.2796 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -2.284e-06 1.097e-06 -2.082 0.0374 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.3947749) Null deviance: 19615 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 19119 on 41363 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 [1] "------Same as Figure 3b - 1980-1998 - for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.18529 -0.89215 -0.06217 0.36246 2.15889 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.051e+00 4.735e+00 0.433 0.664904 year.min -1.381e-03 2.380e-03 -0.580 0.561843 count.goodaustralia -1.006e+01 1.198e+01 -0.840 0.401103 count.goodbelgium -7.136e+01 2.412e+01 -2.958 0.003099 ** count.goodcanada -2.860e+01 1.053e+01 -2.716 0.006604 ** count.gooddenmark -1.406e+00 2.857e+01 -0.049 0.960748 count.goodfinland 1.628e+01 2.968e+01 0.549 0.583329 count.goodfrance 1.324e+01 2.031e+01 0.652 0.514426 count.goodgermany -3.480e+00 1.517e+01 -0.229 0.818537 count.gooditaly -2.079e+01 2.447e+01 -0.849 0.395721 count.goodnetherlands 2.198e+01 6.525e+00 3.369 0.000755 *** count.goodnew-zealand -2.979e-01 2.291e+01 -0.013 0.989625 count.goodother -2.576e+01 2.722e+01 -0.946 0.343973 count.goodportugal -2.227e+01 1.322e+01 -1.685 0.092043 . count.goodspain 1.700e+01 9.726e+00 1.748 0.080424 . count.goodsweden 3.661e+01 2.157e+01 1.698 0.089572 . count.gooduk -3.927e-01 7.008e+00 -0.056 0.955309 year.min:count.goodaustralia 5.042e-03 6.022e-03 0.837 0.402446 year.min:count.goodbelgium 3.589e-02 1.212e-02 2.963 0.003054 ** year.min:count.goodcanada 1.439e-02 5.293e-03 2.718 0.006578 ** year.min:count.gooddenmark 6.901e-04 1.436e-02 0.048 0.961656 year.min:count.goodfinland -8.153e-03 1.492e-02 -0.546 0.584756 year.min:count.goodfrance -6.731e-03 1.021e-02 -0.659 0.509867 year.min:count.goodgermany 1.878e-03 7.620e-03 0.246 0.805384 year.min:count.gooditaly 1.037e-02 1.230e-02 0.843 0.399473 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -1.113e-02 3.280e-03 -3.394 0.000689 *** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 1.549e-04 1.152e-02 0.013 0.989273 year.min:count.goodother 1.299e-02 1.368e-02 0.949 0.342489 year.min:count.goodportugal 1.122e-02 6.639e-03 1.690 0.091034 . year.min:count.goodspain -8.808e-03 4.891e-03 -1.801 0.071751 . year.min:count.goodsweden -1.836e-02 1.084e-02 -1.693 0.090399 . year.min:count.gooduk 2.162e-04 3.524e-03 0.061 0.951079 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.4134534) Null deviance: 11598 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 11288 on 23720 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Supplementary Analyses-------" [1] "------Figure 2a, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.3173 -1.6242 -1.2648 -0.4935 29.2232 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 7.241e+03 1.764e+03 4.104 4.06e-05 *** year.min -1.112e+01 2.702e+00 -4.115 3.88e-05 *** I(year.min^2) 5.692e-03 1.380e-03 4.125 3.72e-05 *** I(year.min^3) -9.706e-07 2.348e-07 -4.134 3.58e-05 *** count.goodaustralia 7.752e+02 1.167e+04 0.066 0.94702 count.goodbelgium -1.747e+04 1.298e+04 -1.346 0.17840 count.goodcanada -9.134e+03 5.800e+03 -1.575 0.11528 count.gooddenmark 2.116e+04 1.742e+04 1.215 0.22442 count.goodfinland -6.546e+04 8.426e+04 -0.777 0.43723 count.goodfrance -3.194e+04 2.667e+04 -1.198 0.23107 count.goodgermany -9.121e+04 3.548e+04 -2.571 0.01016 * count.gooditaly 7.871e+04 1.035e+05 0.760 0.44706 count.goodnetherlands 1.260e+04 4.064e+03 3.101 0.00193 ** count.goodnew-zealand -4.015e+03 1.528e+04 -0.263 0.79279 count.goodother -8.918e+02 1.206e+04 -0.074 0.94105 count.goodportugal 6.226e+03 1.940e+04 0.321 0.74827 count.goodspain -5.448e+04 2.952e+04 -1.846 0.06495 . count.goodsweden 1.183e+04 1.440e+04 0.821 0.41144 count.gooduk 1.032e+04 2.409e+03 4.285 1.84e-05 *** year.min:count.goodaustralia -1.320e+00 1.777e+01 -0.074 0.94079 year.min:count.goodbelgium 2.683e+01 1.988e+01 1.350 0.17703 year.min:count.goodcanada 1.392e+01 8.860e+00 1.572 0.11606 year.min:count.gooddenmark -3.239e+01 2.668e+01 -1.214 0.22470 year.min:count.goodfinland 9.906e+01 1.278e+02 0.775 0.43827 year.min:count.goodfrance 4.837e+01 4.056e+01 1.192 0.23310 year.min:count.goodgermany 1.382e+02 5.382e+01 2.568 0.01022 * year.min:count.gooditaly -1.194e+02 1.569e+02 -0.761 0.44660 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -1.932e+01 6.209e+00 -3.112 0.00186 ** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 6.058e+00 2.334e+01 0.260 0.79517 year.min:count.goodother 1.410e+00 1.849e+01 0.076 0.93921 year.min:count.goodportugal -9.369e+00 2.962e+01 -0.316 0.75178 year.min:count.goodspain 8.296e+01 4.484e+01 1.850 0.06428 . year.min:count.goodsweden -1.843e+01 2.199e+01 -0.838 0.40193 year.min:count.gooduk -1.581e+01 3.693e+00 -4.281 1.87e-05 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia 7.404e-04 9.019e-03 0.082 0.93458 I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -1.374e-02 1.015e-02 -1.354 0.17568 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada -7.075e-03 4.512e-03 -1.568 0.11683 I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark 1.652e-02 1.362e-02 1.213 0.22501 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland -4.997e-02 6.461e-02 -0.773 0.43929 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -2.441e-02 2.056e-02 -1.187 0.23515 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -6.983e-02 2.721e-02 -2.566 0.01029 * I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly 6.037e-02 7.924e-02 0.762 0.44616 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 9.873e-03 3.162e-03 3.122 0.00180 ** I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand -3.047e-03 1.188e-02 -0.257 0.79753 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -7.438e-04 9.451e-03 -0.079 0.93727 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal 4.695e-03 1.507e-02 0.312 0.75539 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -4.210e-02 2.270e-02 -1.855 0.06363 . I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden 9.571e-03 1.120e-02 0.855 0.39261 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 8.068e-03 1.886e-03 4.277 1.90e-05 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia -1.372e-07 1.526e-06 -0.090 0.92838 I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 2.345e-06 1.726e-06 1.358 0.17435 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada 1.198e-06 7.657e-07 1.565 0.11759 I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark -2.809e-06 2.317e-06 -1.212 0.22535 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland 8.402e-06 1.089e-05 0.772 0.44027 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 4.107e-06 3.475e-06 1.182 0.23721 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 1.176e-05 4.586e-06 2.564 0.01036 * I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly -1.017e-05 1.334e-05 -0.763 0.44574 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -1.681e-06 5.368e-07 -3.132 0.00174 ** I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand 5.107e-07 2.015e-06 0.253 0.79989 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 1.308e-07 1.610e-06 0.081 0.93524 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal -7.838e-07 2.556e-06 -0.307 0.75912 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 7.122e-06 3.831e-06 1.859 0.06301 . I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden -1.656e-06 1.899e-06 -0.872 0.38347 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -1.372e-06 3.212e-07 -4.273 1.94e-05 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 2.370703) Null deviance: 109872 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 104485 on 41363 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 2a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.9992 -1.6486 -1.2773 -0.5454 29.5347 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -1.803e+00 1.320e+00 -1.366 0.171965 year.min 1.137e-03 6.636e-04 1.713 0.086744 . count.goodaustralia 1.897e+00 3.682e+00 0.515 0.606360 count.goodbelgium -1.415e+01 7.491e+00 -1.889 0.058908 . count.goodcanada -1.174e+01 3.207e+00 -3.659 0.000253 *** count.gooddenmark 1.269e+00 7.727e+00 0.164 0.869579 count.goodfinland -8.070e+00 8.092e+00 -0.997 0.318594 count.goodfrance 4.048e+00 6.145e+00 0.659 0.510084 count.goodgermany 2.385e+00 4.067e+00 0.586 0.557591 count.gooditaly -6.828e+00 7.382e+00 -0.925 0.354992 count.goodnetherlands 1.263e+00 1.771e+00 0.713 0.475749 count.goodnew-zealand 8.137e+00 7.939e+00 1.025 0.305410 count.goodother -1.906e+01 8.914e+00 -2.138 0.032512 * count.goodportugal -1.485e+01 4.554e+00 -3.260 0.001114 ** count.goodspain 5.526e+00 3.464e+00 1.595 0.110726 count.goodsweden 7.611e+00 6.447e+00 1.180 0.237814 count.gooduk 3.782e+00 1.993e+00 1.898 0.057745 . year.min:count.goodaustralia -9.764e-04 1.851e-03 -0.528 0.597787 year.min:count.goodbelgium 7.095e-03 3.762e-03 1.886 0.059270 . year.min:count.goodcanada 5.871e-03 1.612e-03 3.642 0.000272 *** year.min:count.gooddenmark -6.387e-04 3.882e-03 -0.165 0.869307 year.min:count.goodfinland 4.080e-03 4.066e-03 1.004 0.315562 year.min:count.goodfrance -2.075e-03 3.089e-03 -0.672 0.501645 year.min:count.goodgermany -1.169e-03 2.043e-03 -0.572 0.567310 year.min:count.gooditaly 3.411e-03 3.709e-03 0.920 0.357763 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -6.378e-04 8.900e-04 -0.717 0.473619 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -4.155e-03 3.991e-03 -1.041 0.297853 year.min:count.goodother 9.570e-03 4.478e-03 2.137 0.032603 * year.min:count.goodportugal 7.418e-03 2.286e-03 3.244 0.001179 ** year.min:count.goodspain -2.913e-03 1.742e-03 -1.673 0.094438 . year.min:count.goodsweden -3.842e-03 3.240e-03 -1.186 0.235769 year.min:count.gooduk -1.896e-03 1.002e-03 -1.892 0.058481 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 2.487524) Null deviance: 65236 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 62439 on 23720 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 2b, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -8.613 -0.519 -0.105 0.259 33.822 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -8.411e+03 1.402e+03 -6.000 1.98e-09 *** year.min 1.302e+01 2.148e+00 6.063 1.35e-09 *** I(year.min^2) -6.722e-03 1.097e-03 -6.129 8.95e-10 *** I(year.min^3) 1.157e-06 1.867e-07 6.198 5.79e-10 *** count.goodaustralia 9.741e+03 8.914e+03 1.093 0.274493 count.goodbelgium -1.636e+04 1.031e+04 -1.586 0.112654 count.goodcanada 6.195e+03 4.301e+03 1.440 0.149778 count.gooddenmark -1.415e+04 1.337e+04 -1.058 0.289969 count.goodfinland 4.907e+04 6.463e+04 0.759 0.447775 count.goodfrance 1.101e+04 1.415e+04 0.778 0.436734 count.goodgermany 4.362e+04 2.588e+04 1.686 0.091889 . count.gooditaly 3.364e+05 8.019e+04 4.196 2.73e-05 *** count.goodnetherlands 1.826e+04 3.202e+03 5.702 1.19e-08 *** count.goodnew-zealand 1.884e+03 1.067e+04 0.177 0.859779 count.goodother -2.410e+03 9.267e+03 -0.260 0.794837 count.goodportugal -7.979e+03 1.449e+04 -0.551 0.581922 count.goodspain 4.109e+02 1.314e+04 0.031 0.975059 count.goodsweden 5.389e+03 1.046e+04 0.515 0.606313 count.gooduk 7.267e+03 1.912e+03 3.800 0.000145 *** year.min:count.goodaustralia -1.497e+01 1.358e+01 -1.103 0.270149 year.min:count.goodbelgium 2.503e+01 1.580e+01 1.584 0.113127 year.min:count.goodcanada -9.506e+00 6.575e+00 -1.446 0.148223 year.min:count.gooddenmark 2.175e+01 2.048e+01 1.062 0.288341 year.min:count.goodfinland -7.466e+01 9.808e+01 -0.761 0.446528 year.min:count.goodfrance -1.692e+01 2.157e+01 -0.784 0.432933 year.min:count.goodgermany -6.657e+01 3.930e+01 -1.694 0.090313 . year.min:count.gooditaly -5.118e+02 1.215e+02 -4.211 2.55e-05 *** year.min:count.goodnetherlands -2.802e+01 4.893e+00 -5.727 1.03e-08 *** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -2.958e+00 1.630e+01 -0.182 0.855938 year.min:count.goodother 3.660e+00 1.422e+01 0.257 0.796817 year.min:count.goodportugal 1.211e+01 2.213e+01 0.547 0.584121 year.min:count.goodspain -8.954e-01 2.001e+01 -0.045 0.964309 year.min:count.goodsweden -8.331e+00 1.599e+01 -0.521 0.602263 year.min:count.gooduk -1.115e+01 2.932e+00 -3.802 0.000144 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia 7.673e-03 6.896e-03 1.113 0.265835 I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -1.276e-02 8.067e-03 -1.582 0.113657 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada 4.862e-03 3.350e-03 1.451 0.146649 I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark -1.114e-02 1.046e-02 -1.065 0.286725 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland 3.786e-02 4.961e-02 0.763 0.445298 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance 8.666e-03 1.096e-02 0.791 0.429171 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany 3.386e-02 1.989e-02 1.702 0.088773 . I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly 2.595e-01 6.139e-02 4.227 2.38e-05 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.434e-02 2.492e-03 5.752 8.89e-09 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand 1.548e-03 8.298e-03 0.187 0.852052 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -1.852e-03 7.268e-03 -0.255 0.798832 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -6.129e-03 1.126e-02 -0.544 0.586338 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain 5.931e-04 1.016e-02 0.058 0.953430 I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden 4.292e-03 8.146e-03 0.527 0.598277 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 5.697e-03 1.498e-03 3.803 0.000143 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia -1.310e-06 1.167e-06 -1.123 0.261549 I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 2.168e-06 1.373e-06 1.579 0.114242 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada -8.290e-07 5.689e-07 -1.457 0.145053 I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark 1.902e-06 1.779e-06 1.069 0.285119 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland -6.401e-06 8.363e-06 -0.765 0.444083 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance -1.480e-06 1.856e-06 -0.797 0.425448 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany -5.740e-06 3.357e-06 -1.710 0.087268 . I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly -4.385e-05 1.034e-05 -4.242 2.22e-05 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -2.444e-06 4.231e-07 -5.776 7.70e-09 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -2.697e-07 1.408e-06 -0.192 0.848117 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 3.123e-07 1.238e-06 0.252 0.800885 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 1.033e-06 1.911e-06 0.541 0.588573 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain -1.241e-07 1.718e-06 -0.072 0.942430 I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden -7.367e-07 1.383e-06 -0.533 0.594354 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -9.705e-07 2.551e-07 -3.805 0.000142 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 1.027139) Null deviance: 59082 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 42486 on 41363 degrees of freedom AIC: 16034 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 2b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -8.690 -0.529 -0.120 0.233 33.886 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -2.638e+01 1.191e+00 -22.144 < 2e-16 *** year.min 1.360e-02 5.989e-04 22.700 < 2e-16 *** count.goodaustralia 8.524e+00 3.259e+00 2.616 0.00892 ** count.goodbelgium 8.308e+00 6.646e+00 1.250 0.21127 count.goodcanada 8.627e+00 2.823e+00 3.056 0.00224 ** count.gooddenmark -7.813e+00 6.970e+00 -1.121 0.26231 count.goodfinland 2.684e+00 7.470e+00 0.359 0.71940 count.goodfrance 1.198e+01 5.340e+00 2.244 0.02487 * count.goodgermany 2.480e+00 3.773e+00 0.657 0.51091 count.gooditaly 4.788e+01 6.522e+00 7.341 2.18e-13 *** count.goodnetherlands 7.833e+00 1.596e+00 4.907 9.29e-07 *** count.goodnew-zealand 1.298e+01 6.744e+00 1.924 0.05437 . count.goodother 5.087e+00 7.915e+00 0.643 0.52043 count.goodportugal 2.977e+00 3.924e+00 0.759 0.44816 count.goodspain 1.828e+01 2.794e+00 6.543 6.16e-11 *** count.goodsweden -1.417e+00 5.730e+00 -0.247 0.80471 count.gooduk 1.217e+01 1.804e+00 6.745 1.57e-11 *** year.min:count.goodaustralia -4.324e-03 1.638e-03 -2.639 0.00831 ** year.min:count.goodbelgium -4.175e-03 3.337e-03 -1.251 0.21090 year.min:count.goodcanada -4.370e-03 1.419e-03 -3.080 0.00207 ** year.min:count.gooddenmark 3.936e-03 3.501e-03 1.124 0.26097 year.min:count.goodfinland -1.347e-03 3.754e-03 -0.359 0.71962 year.min:count.goodfrance -6.012e-03 2.684e-03 -2.240 0.02511 * year.min:count.goodgermany -1.237e-03 1.895e-03 -0.653 0.51385 year.min:count.gooditaly -2.399e-02 3.277e-03 -7.319 2.57e-13 *** year.min:count.goodnetherlands -3.907e-03 8.023e-04 -4.869 1.13e-06 *** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -6.572e-03 3.390e-03 -1.938 0.05259 . year.min:count.goodother -2.586e-03 3.977e-03 -0.650 0.51557 year.min:count.goodportugal -1.527e-03 1.971e-03 -0.775 0.43826 year.min:count.goodspain -9.186e-03 1.405e-03 -6.539 6.30e-11 *** year.min:count.goodsweden 6.905e-04 2.880e-03 0.240 0.81054 year.min:count.gooduk -6.117e-03 9.072e-04 -6.742 1.59e-11 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 1.282768) Null deviance: 32974 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 30427 on 23720 degrees of freedom AIC: 13605 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 null device 1 null device 1 null device 1 [1] "------lists of names of the 20 most and least productive researchers, by country and year------" [1] "usa-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "khoo-csh" "langeveld-wgj" "chew-fsk" "krueger-wwo" "yang-ssl" [6] "cheung-rcm" "lee-scd" "leaver-dew" "stanley-awh" "cassell-ils" [11] "chen-smh" "springer-mfb" "sun-wnc" "mcclurg-fld" "shaver-jlf" [16] "yim-dkc" "king-mee" "wang-pth" "lee-acm" "wen-lfl" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "dimlich-rvw" "wang-cla" "knasas-jfx" "polt-jhr" "vanderkuijp-lwj" [6] "fan-frf" "hosking-jrm" "prakash-ubs" "hogue-cjr" "west-jlw" [11] "lee-cyc" "dewaal-fbm" "mathias-cgt" "eng-rhk" "curtis-wjr" [16] "miller-dab" "rietmeijer-fjm" "lee-jkt" "cohen-sjd" "sima-aaf" [21] "riley-hmk" [1] "usa-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "lopez-ajg" "chen-dyh" "vantornout-jma" "nguyen-jht" "toro-gir" [6] "sheya-san" "bonegio-rgb" "song-syt" "tang-iys" "ho-mcd" [11] "moran-jjm" "wong-acc" "lim-jkc" "crown-jpa" "shen-hsl" [16] "lee-ssh" "franco-ksn" "wu-ljc" "quadri-smh" "ribeiro-mja" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "knoll-jhm" "teng-jtc" "judy-rat" "rasmussen-lel" "li-kcp" [6] "sastry-pvpss" "kodavanti-prs" "day-jfr" "tosteson-ana" "hsia-ccw" [11] "lee-kyc" "modrak-dkw" "atkinson-jld" "wang-kkw" "spangberg-lsw" [16] "young-mri" "so-ptc" "kelley-rdg" "dickinson-slj" "lau-jyn" [21] "rayl-ajs" [1] "usa-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "vara-jar" "klein-jds" "lloret-mig" "monteleone-jpr" "hasan-smm" [6] "nguyen-txq" "burgess-dch" "chen-pss" "sipe-web" "yang-jym" [11] "fan-pwj" "blount-ars" "doolittle-tcj" "olaverri-jcr" "kwakkim-jyh" [16] "floyd-jcp" "thiadens-srj" "milner-arc" "truong-ttn" "bock-dcj" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "smalley-ksm" "hepburn-sar" "wren-tal" "stark-cel" "lam-etc" "lee-jth" [7] "thompson-dwj" "chiu-gtc" "yao-hhc" "kent-prc" "tsao-jci" "tate-mlk" [13] "bowie-rck" "paul-cjm" "slep-ams" "oliver-srj" "killgore-wds" "wong-hsp" [19] "yuan-jxj" "elkind-msv" "santos-jep" [1] "australia-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "george-tds" "eilermann-ljm" "bridgewater-fhg" "taverne-aar" "allan-etb" [6] "black-kjt" "orsini-jpg" "wright-rvs" "lin-gci" "brown-pje" [11] "pells-pjn" "reed-kfm" "dunlop-jsr" "armarego-eja" "limsowtin-gky" [16] "henderson-ijp" "fabinyi-gca" "gordon-khj" "murphy-amc" "chaproniere-gch" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "lampotang-prl" "goodman-gsk" "ruyooka-dba" "gordon-glr" "toogood-irg" [6] "rowe-hah" "banyard-mrc" "tan-gjs" "callinan-apl" "rutishauser-ihe" [11] "naylor-grs" "baker-ajm" "blamey-fpc" "winchester-hpm" "cheetham-nwh" [16] "cheung-hta" "lancaster-pal" "davies-jmq" "giles-lgf" "chan-dyc" [21] "badwal-sps" [1] "australia-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "alexander-jsa" "vandegraaff-rhm" "hacker-jlf" "parsons-apr" "chun-cky" [6] "stewart-mwa" "tong-rsk" "kwok-bct" "burrow-jnc" "li-jsj" [11] "froomes-pra" "klugman-snp" "morton-dav" "bower-spc" "diller-avn" [16] "schunmann-phd" "glonek-gfv" "macdonald-wbg" "cavanagh-hma" "leung-lkp" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "lee-csl" "padbury-rta" "chan-dky" "smith-mpl" "stevenson-arl" [6] "nurekamal-msa" "bramley-rgv" "fawcett-rjb" "vanoorschot-rah" "lam-tbt" [11] "eldridge-mdb" "johnson-pdr" "backwell-pry" "lefroy-rdb" "albermani-fga" [16] "mitchell-drg" "choong-pfm" "holland-aja" "roberts-jag" "reid-cam" [21] "rasmussen-kjr" [1] "australia-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "lord-dje" "tran-tmt" "tenaya-iwm" "velzeboer-rma" "reid-dwec" [6] "boardman-wsj" "wong-dcc" "fung-dcy" "vanetten-ejb" "khursandi-dcs" [11] "lam-skl" "iedema-ram" "tan-jhj" "baiano-jcf" "hauser-sep" [16] "bolton-pgm" "french-wjr" "chen-jwc" "vandermei-iaf" "loh-wkw" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "tan-dky" "curran-maj" "wong-kkh" "wilkinson-djc" "daly-ffs" [6] "post-vea" "dekok-rpj" "sidhu-jps" "liu-ioy" "harris-awf" [11] "clarkson-ivl" "burgess-sso" "lind-crp" "ting-jys" "jordens-cfc" [16] "rossel-rav" "homer-cse" "panhuis-mih" "yarlagadda-pkdv" "palamara-jea" [21] "bromley-mwj" [1] "belgium-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "vandamme-bjc" "jensen-ahb" "mareel-mmk" "vanfraechem-jhp" "tharakan-pkm" [6] "bourgeois-jhj" "nelissen-mhj" "vanderborght-olj" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "vandamme-bjc" "jensen-ahb" "mareel-mmk" "vanfraechem-jhp" "tharakan-pkm" [6] "bourgeois-jhj" "nelissen-mhj" "vanderborght-olj" [1] "belgium-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "destrihou-cvy" "denboer-bgw" "nauwelaers-bkjc" "gilles-jgg" [5] "vanrenterghem-yfc" "vandenbergh-pyk" "deschepper-ama" "schepens-pjc" [9] "boffin-hmj" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "destrihou-cvy" "denboer-bgw" "nauwelaers-bkjc" "gilles-jgg" [5] "vanrenterghem-yfc" "vandenbergh-pyk" "deschepper-ama" "schepens-pjc" [9] "boffin-hmj" [1] "belgium-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "spruyt-ehj" "somers-jfa" "hendriks-jmh" "thomis-mai" "jaecques-svn" [6] "lesage-asj" "marks-lam" "bullens-dma" "piette-mha" "linsinger-tpj" [11] "lafontaine-dlj" "sabbe-bgc" "vantendeloo-vfi" "lories-rju" "tuyttens-fam" [16] "burm-ktal" "verhoest-nec" "kuypers-drj" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "spruyt-ehj" "somers-jfa" "hendriks-jmh" "thomis-mai" "jaecques-svn" [6] "lesage-asj" "marks-lam" "bullens-dma" "piette-mha" "linsinger-tpj" [11] "lafontaine-dlj" "sabbe-bgc" "vantendeloo-vfi" "lories-rju" "tuyttens-fam" [16] "burm-ktal" "verhoest-nec" "kuypers-drj" [1] "canada-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "long-bfn" "williams-fmr" "walde-pld" "carlson-jak" "aubin-djs" [6] "box-trh" "perera-jshq" "bethune-dcg" "gardiner-srm" "hsu-dhs" [11] "sandals-wcd" "raju-rvs" "aly-amm" "young-jws" "ng-wwl" [16] "silverberg-jdh" "miller-aal" "wong-jcy" "alghazi-msal" "wong-scp" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "ellis-daf" "bromfield-esp" "murphy-rjl" "yates-wdg" "innes-dgl" [6] "ventureyra-ecg" "chan-hsl" "miller-rjd" "braun-cmj" "hall-gem" [11] "lam-gky" "leung-lws" "shaw-mlg" "jamieson-wre" "liu-jwh" [16] "sandiford-kap" "muir-dcg" "bates-jht" "lee-rmkw" "chiu-rcj" [21] "robson-wlm" [1] "canada-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "huijbregts-mpj" "youssef-ama" "goulding-rrj" "ringaert-kra" "forrest-jac" [6] "goodday-rhb" "lau-jhw" "ma-bnw" "ball-dga" "chow-eyw" [11] "holloway-cmb" "woollard-jmr" "puswewala-uga" "thouez-jpm" "ho-sms" [16] "farrell-pse" "palomares-mld" "chan-pcm" "matzinger-frk" "delahaza-jmr" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "moorhead-gbg" "eaton-dws" "hutnik-cml" "salisbury-cdc" "dao-ttt" [6] "jamaluddin-akm" "noctor-tag" "dwyer-jjm" "murphy-mep" "kallury-kmr" [11] "mills-rsl" "dalessio-sjd" "kwan-acc" "voruganti-lnp" "east-all" [16] "mohamed-amo" "dei-gjs" "pedras-msc" "rao-vlr" "parker-jda" [21] "bhat-aks" [1] "canada-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "bishop-jeh" "allen-mjm" "dick-hln" "fournier-ejl" "fuller-mls" "ng-ach" [7] "northey-jgb" "wadey-vmr" "hing-lss" "noel-jma" "walker-jds" "russell-haj" [13] "wong-nky" "wojtyk-jtc" "myers-rbh" "vanspall-hgc" "souza-fes" "khan-snh" [19] "maegawa-ghb" "laporte-cjl" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "kirkpatrick-idc" "ng-ssw" "brinkman-fsl" "augustin-lsa" "kahr-wha" [6] "delcastillo-jre" "luke-ppw" "abidi-ssr" "mccausland-pja" "mann-gki" [11] "ross-ars" "jacobs-hlm" "seely-aje" "filipe-cdm" "schwarz-skw" [16] "peng-pwh" "mccartney-cjl" "chan-wcw" "rupasinghe-hpv" "warburton-der" [21] "ensom-mhh" [1] "denmark-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "ali-asa" "knutsen-ljs" "swedberg-mdb" "petersen-jgl" "demant-ejf" "appel-pwu" [7] "harper-dat" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "ali-asa" "knutsen-ljs" "swedberg-mdb" "petersen-jgl" "demant-ejf" "appel-pwu" [7] "harper-dat" [1] "denmark-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "engelholm-saa" "hansen-jhb" "nielsen-svs" "hansen-ncg" "heegaard-pmh" "jorgensen-lgm" [7] "kurtzhals-jal" "larsson-hbw" "on-slw" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "engelholm-saa" "hansen-jhb" "nielsen-svs" "hansen-ncg" "heegaard-pmh" "jorgensen-lgm" [7] "kurtzhals-jal" "larsson-hbw" "on-slw" [1] "denmark-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "jylling-amb" "grage-mml" "poulsen-jcn" "willigers-bja" "wong-dmalf" [6] "lutzhoft-hch" "lauritsen-jph" "diederichsen-acp" "smith-kec" "fynbo-hou" [11] "moreira-jma" "olsen-kep" "pedersen-cns" "madsen-gkh" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "jylling-amb" "grage-mml" "poulsen-jcn" "willigers-bja" "wong-dmalf" [6] "lutzhoft-hch" "lauritsen-jph" "diederichsen-acp" "smith-kec" "fynbo-hou" [11] "moreira-jma" "olsen-kep" "pedersen-cns" "madsen-gkh" [1] "france-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "breteau-jpl" "lamaziere-jmd" "vidon-djm" "sudan-bjl" "ziman-tal" [6] "chanh-aph" "fleury-hja" "devries-mfrk" "levy-jcs" "launay-mbd" [11] "audebert-ajm" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "breteau-jpl" "lamaziere-jmd" "vidon-djm" "sudan-bjl" "ziman-tal" [6] "chanh-aph" "fleury-hja" "devries-mfrk" "levy-jcs" "launay-mbd" [11] "audebert-ajm" [1] "france-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "fotso-mjm" "delafaverie-jfr" "duc-jmn" "van-jmv" "nhieu-gtv" [6] "said-amo" "rosa-dsa" "mashako-mnl" "varannes-sbd" "ngoc-hth" [11] "dinh-yrt" "sing-mlc" "delacalle-jfv" "rasolofosaon-pnj" "infante-jlz" [16] "baxter-pnw" "lamb-njc" "brechet-yjm" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "fotso-mjm" "delafaverie-jfr" "duc-jmn" "van-jmv" "nhieu-gtv" [6] "said-amo" "rosa-dsa" "mashako-mnl" "varannes-sbd" "ngoc-hth" [11] "dinh-yrt" "sing-mlc" "delacalle-jfv" "rasolofosaon-pnj" "infante-jlz" [16] "baxter-pnw" "lamb-njc" "brechet-yjm" [1] "france-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "jaegle-mlw" "larbi-ags" "lelong-ccd" "saux-mfl" "hue-lpth" [6] "ilg-ags" "louly-mao" "deserre-npm" "martins-jmf" "devriendt-jeg" [11] "hill-drc" "lobaccaro-jma" "santos-jsd" "alfonsin-jlr" "gomes-mfc" [16] "montagnier-jpc" "rocha-epc" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "jaegle-mlw" "larbi-ags" "lelong-ccd" "saux-mfl" "hue-lpth" [6] "ilg-ags" "louly-mao" "deserre-npm" "martins-jmf" "devriendt-jeg" [11] "hill-drc" "lobaccaro-jma" "santos-jsd" "alfonsin-jlr" "gomes-mfc" [16] "montagnier-jpc" "rocha-epc" [1] "germany-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "thiemann-whp" "ehlermann-dae" "dittmar-kej" "steffens-gcm" "fleer-eam" [6] "peters-pwm" "wagner-tof" "hohne-gwh" "scherer-gfe" "vandenberg-ham" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "thiemann-whp" "ehlermann-dae" "dittmar-kej" "steffens-gcm" "fleer-eam" [6] "peters-pwm" "wagner-tof" "hohne-gwh" "scherer-gfe" "vandenberg-ham" [1] "germany-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "arnold-grw" "mueller-ahe" "kruska-dct" "dejonge-jpa" [5] "vandijk-plm" "pfitzner-ajp" "weernink-pao" "schmidt-frj" [9] "mielke-mea" "schneiderpoetsch-haw" "lancaster-crd" "koops-hwp" [13] "baumeister-fam" "decking-ukm" "haanappel-vac" "steinberg-cew" [17] "scriba-gke" "schwarting-rkw" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "arnold-grw" "mueller-ahe" "kruska-dct" "dejonge-jpa" [5] "vandijk-plm" "pfitzner-ajp" "weernink-pao" "schmidt-frj" [9] "mielke-mea" "schneiderpoetsch-haw" "lancaster-crd" "koops-hwp" [13] "baumeister-fam" "decking-ukm" "haanappel-vac" "steinberg-cew" [17] "scriba-gke" "schwarting-rkw" [1] "germany-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "pfister-mhf" "heringdorf-fmz" "witzsch-ukf" "nguyen-thd" "groenemeyer-dhw" [6] "weitekamp-egm" "wolf-mtf" "pinzon-lce" "jongen-jhpm" "gumbel-hoc" [11] "schroder-nwj" "geppert-act" "haussmann-big" "gronewold-tma" "gunne-jsad" [16] "cornelissen-ajm" "duijnisveld-whm" "schnitzler-mmy" "barth-jac" "brucher-bldm" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "gunne-jsad" "cornelissen-ajm" "duijnisveld-whm" "schnitzler-mmy" "barth-jac" [6] "brucher-bldm" "oelschlager-hha" "vonarnim-caf" "halbach-ovu" "stark-cbw" [11] "lehmann-guc" "gabriel-hhw" "tovar-gem" "koster-amca" "heringdorf-fjmz" [16] "konorza-tfm" "rauhut-owm" "ebert-mpa" "egbe-dam" "wong-yyy" [21] "kempf-vaj" [1] "italy-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "giugliano-mam" "sale-mfo" "vasino-mac" "bandinelli-mlb" "carbone-ldl" [6] "peruffo-adb" "valentini-mtg" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "giugliano-mam" "sale-mfo" "vasino-mac" "bandinelli-mlb" "carbone-ldl" [6] "peruffo-adb" "valentini-mtg" [1] "italy-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "borghi-mbc" "araya-amo" "lio-gmd" "oliva-jcm" "carnevale-uag" [6] "gangemi-rmr" "pizzigallo-mdr" "morales-mag" "dileo-mas" "galietta-ljv" [11] "wanrooij-bpf" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "borghi-mbc" "araya-amo" "lio-gmd" "oliva-jcm" "carnevale-uag" [6] "gangemi-rmr" "pizzigallo-mdr" "morales-mag" "dileo-mas" "galietta-ljv" [11] "wanrooij-bpf" [1] "italy-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "melfi-fma" "fabricio-asc" "corona-dfv" "desocio-gvl" "potenza-mac" "digioia-crt" [7] "zuffi-mal" "ottaviano-gip" "klaver-jmi" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "melfi-fma" "fabricio-asc" "corona-dfv" "desocio-gvl" "potenza-mac" "digioia-crt" [7] "zuffi-mal" "ottaviano-gip" "klaver-jmi" [1] "netherlands-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "grosfeld-mjw" "herscheid-kdm" "slee-pht" "stigter-jcm" [5] "vanekelen-waaj" "hogervorst-jmw" "stuurmanbieze-agg" "gokemeijer-jdm" [9] "jansen-jjm" "bekkum-dwv" "verhoeven-atm" "vondemborne-aeg" [13] "crombach-whj" "hooft-gwt" "koppers-hmm" "vaessen-phm" [17] "vinke-rvh" "janssen-mja" "kok-pjmj" "renckens-bam" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "walraven-jtm" "vanlier-hjj" "stienen-gjm" "vanalphen-jjm" [5] "reiber-jhc" "brinkman-cjj" "deloosvollebregt-mtc" "werger-mja" [9] "peters-whm" "vandongen-jjm" "vanwaes-pfgm" "vanenckevort-wjp" [13] "booij-lhdj" "slooff-mjh" "hop-wcj" "nieuwstadt-ftm" [17] "vanhenegouwen-gmjb" "vanhinsbergh-vwm" "steinbusch-hwm" "claas-fhj" [21] "ramaekers-fcs" [1] "netherlands-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "egberts-wtv" "kasteleijnnolsttrenite-dga" "bunschoten-epm" [4] "lankhorst-rmk" "vanoijen-plm" "smit-wgjm" [7] "vandenmunckhof-ham" "aerdts-sja" "vankrieken-hjm" [10] "povel-jacm" "balk-ahhm" "hoekx-jcm" [13] "smits-pabm" "hakvoortcammel-fgaj" "kramer-gwpm" [16] "vanrossum-hjm" "vervoort-gmm" "verhagen-apm" [19] "brouwers-jeig" "derksen-rwhm" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "kitslaar-pjehm" "baeten-cgmi" "helders-pjm" "degroot-fmf" [5] "melchers-wjg" "meulenbroek-rgj" "vandenheuvel-lpwj" "marcelis-lfm" [9] "sijm-dthm" "vankuilenburg-abp" "zandvliet-hjw" "touret-jlr" [13] "drenth-jph" "hunink-mgm" "wierda-jmkh" "girbes-arj" [17] "feskens-ejm" "huizinga-twj" "demey-jgr" "oyen-wjg" [21] "bossuyt-pmm" [1] "netherlands-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "jansweijer-ppm" "jeurissen-fjf" "vanvonderen-mga" "romme-pjhj" [5] "tenvoorde-secg" "houwert-kaf" "vanpelt-hpa" "dejong-fmg" [9] "ophuis-ajo" "sagt-cmj" "kromosoeto-jnr" "tenham-pbg" [13] "vandongen-ugjm" "vandekamp-ehm" "zweekhorst-mbm" "geisler-fea" [17] "vanpuijenbroek-pjtm" "lips-pta" "ponsioen-cij" "vervest-amjs" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "sevink-gja" "reijnen-mmpj" "zitha-plj" "suiker-asj" [5] "doxiadis-ggm" "vandervelden-vhj" "mathijssen-rhj" "jonker-mto" [9] "kas-mjh" "stout-tae" "veeger-njgm" "heemels-wpmh" [13] "cornelissen-jjlm" "ruiter-rac" "huitema-adr" "huijbregts-maj" [17] "vlugt-tjh" "kessels-rpc" "biermazeinstra-sma" "olivers-cnl" [21] "vanloon-ljc" [1] "new-zealand-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "aylward-peg" "walker-jts" "toxopeus-mrj" "civil-ids" "mckee-jwa" "graves-mar" [7] "robinson-vmj" "edwards-wrn" "leung-dwm" "fletcher-gjo" "francis-ricc" "davies-trh" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "aylward-peg" "walker-jts" "toxopeus-mrj" "civil-ids" "mckee-jwa" "graves-mar" [7] "robinson-vmj" "edwards-wrn" "leung-dwm" "fletcher-gjo" "francis-ricc" "davies-trh" [1] "new-zealand-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "chan-pls" "bus-vgm" "howie-grc" "prickett-tcr" "ching-dwt" "lee-rsf" [7] "stewart-rah" "mccowan-lme" "jansen-klr" "williams-gvm" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "chan-pls" "bus-vgm" "howie-grc" "prickett-tcr" "ching-dwt" "lee-rsf" [7] "stewart-rah" "mccowan-lme" "jansen-klr" "williams-gvm" [1] "new-zealand-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "pendergrast-dgc" "ganley-ard" "ragg-nlc" "anderson-cwn" "higham-jes" [6] "morris-lha" "jameson-gnl" "perry-glw" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "pendergrast-dgc" "ganley-ard" "ragg-nlc" "anderson-cwn" "higham-jes" [6] "morris-lha" "jameson-gnl" "perry-glw" [1] "portugal-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "silveira-jcb" "lima-jjp" "oneill-jeg" "pina-jae" "dinis-lms" [6] "leite-ampp" "palavra-amf" "carrondo-maafdt" "ferreira-ktg" "costa-smb" [11] "simoes-jam" "geraldes-cfgc" "duarte-jams" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "silveira-jcb" "lima-jjp" "oneill-jeg" "pina-jae" "dinis-lms" [6] "leite-ampp" "palavra-amf" "carrondo-maafdt" "ferreira-ktg" "costa-smb" [11] "simoes-jam" "geraldes-cfgc" "duarte-jams" [1] "portugal-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "garcia-rac" "geraldes-cfg" "decarvalho-jcl" "urgueira-apv" "viegas-fjt" [6] "azenha-medg" "dasilva-rmc" "sousa-mse" "lopes-jap" "martins-clv" [11] "guimaraes-mml" "guedes-cvm" "goncalves-lmd" "shohoji-mcbl" "abrantes-imd" [16] "soares-jmc" "bordado-jcm" "maia-nmm" "delima-jlmp" "reis-mam" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "lopes-jap" "martins-clv" "guimaraes-mml" "guedes-cvm" "goncalves-lmd" [6] "shohoji-mcbl" "abrantes-imd" "soares-jmc" "bordado-jcm" "maia-nmm" [11] "delima-jlmp" "reis-mam" "fareleira-jmna" "azevedo-jlt" "cordeiro-mnds" [16] "dasilva-mgf" "diniz-jmbf" "salvado-imm" "gomes-jfp" "pinto-mmm" [21] "lemos-jps" [1] "portugal-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "marques-afp" "duarte-aals" "costa-jge" "silva-apa" "carvalho-tmm" [6] "dossantos-fmp" "pinho-jls" "lima-jlc" "catita-jam" "simoes-jao" [11] "silva-jap" "lima-jml" "lemos-jpc" "dasilva-laps" "serrao-pgta" [16] "monteiro-cmb" "cordovil-cmds" "dealmeida-jmc" "serra-mes" "carvalho-arf" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "pinto-rma" "eusebio-mes" "fonseca-ajm" "ferreira-lmm" "jorge-pas" [6] "cruz-pjs" "carvalho-pms" "silva-amg" "morgado-jap" "dasilva-rjnb" [11] "oliveira-fsbf" "silva-psp" "dasilva-jcb" "pereira-pjb" "almeida-cmr" [16] "laia-cat" "ferreira-pmt" "goncalves-mst" "valente-lmp" "pacheco-fal" [21] "barros-jao" [1] "spain-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "manchola-jaa" "fernandez-jaf" "leon-jam" "fernandez-ajd" "cremades-jmd" [6] "deguevara-acl" "torres-mld" "diaz-jac" "joglar-gsm" "salamero-jmm" [11] "asquerino-jcm" "salgado-alc" "garrido-mdc" "rubio-jmr" "garcia-jlr" [16] "alonso-jja" "manzanos-mva" "mirave-jia" "romanillo-jam" "moro-fja" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "manzanos-mva" "mirave-jia" "romanillo-jam" "moro-fja" [5] "quesada-jml" "long-jjc" "camarasa-jmg" "gil-fjm" [9] "sanchez-mls" "vicente-vfm" "rodriguez-jmt" "montes-jar" [13] "martinez-jmm" "castro-agg" "garcia-mav" "garces-jlg" [17] "lopezespinosa-mtp" "gomez-jml" "arrondo-jlr" "deletona-jml" [21] "lorenzo-mjv" [1] "spain-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "sanchez-jcc" "obregon-mcd" "calvar-jmc" "lopez-mla" "navarro-jab" [6] "alvarez-mgd" "andres-mdc" "desevilla-csf" "gonzalez-jcc" "guevara-rmr" [11] "iglesias-mac" "lopez-jam" "asenjo-jalg" "debes-itt" "diaz-jap" [16] "gil-jjd" "dominguez-mad" "paloma-fjb" "blanco-fja" "romero-gpb" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "vilaboa-jmf" "gonzalez-jeg" "rodriguez-jjr" "revuelta-jao" "alonso-jjm" [6] "duenas-jmm" "fuster-mcr" "vicente-mad" "rodriguez-jfg" "cerezo-jal" [11] "martin-jlf" "deparga-alv" "siso-mig" "delacampa-mrf" "diazguerra-mjm" [16] "ros-jmg" "ramos-jmj" "banegas-jrb" "lopez-rjg" "castillo-jmf" [21] "laird-jma" [1] "spain-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "martin-jla" "pinto-jmp" "leon-jmt" "rey-jsr" "detoledo-jpa" "garcia-jlf" [7] "insausti-ljp" "parra-jlc" "mari-jmn" "huerta-pph" "crespo-jas" "esteban-mbg" [13] "larrucea-jat" "reigosa-jmp" "roig-ajb" "correa-jag" "doyague-mfm" "lopez-amc" [19] "aznar-mdg" "martin-mjj" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "blanco-jjr" "janss-gfe" "rodriguez-moc" "garcia-jmt" "degalarreta-jir" [6] "rioboo-rjj" "ibanez-fjrd" "bejar-vjs" "laffond-jcr" "vinas-mag" [11] "pinna-mac" "alvarez-jna" "manchon-pmg" "cela-jjl" "viejo-mjs" [16] "villaluenga-jpg" "lainez-mja" "cifre-mah" "martin-ajc" "delcastillo-mlr" [21] "defigueroa-jmt" [1] "sweden-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "svanberg-uso" "almay-bgl" "ekre-hpt" "andersson-deh" "magnusson-cgm" "jaenson-tgt" [7] "blomberg-mra" "wikberg-jes" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "svanberg-uso" "almay-bgl" "ekre-hpt" "andersson-deh" "magnusson-cgm" "jaenson-tgt" [7] "blomberg-mra" "wikberg-jes" [1] "sweden-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "gerdle-buc" "leijon-mas" "pettersson-hbl" "andersson-tlg" "khan-azq" [6] "vanniel-ewj" "arner-esj" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "gerdle-buc" "leijon-mas" "pettersson-hbl" "andersson-tlg" "khan-azq" [6] "vanniel-ewj" "arner-esj" [1] "sweden-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "elfman-lhm" "ekwall-akh" "karlsson-icm" "aberg-mai" "persson-kem" [6] "back-saj" "holmgren-nma" "lalitkumar-pgl" "figueredo-cms" "lill-son" [11] "cousins-sao" "persson-poa" "sumpter-djt" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "elfman-lhm" "ekwall-akh" "karlsson-icm" "aberg-mai" "persson-kem" [6] "back-saj" "holmgren-nma" "lalitkumar-pgl" "figueredo-cms" "lill-son" [11] "cousins-sao" "persson-poa" "sumpter-djt" [1] "uk-1978" [1] "top 20" [1] "wood-amj" "lewis-rwh" "silva-srd" "henderson-rcw" "sandford-mcw" [6] "alberti-kggm" "plasman-jwmh" "sandberg-ace" "phillips-jdp" "edwards-drw" [11] "thomson-aag" "bayley-ijl" "davies-hffs" "machin-chc" "hunt-aae" [16] "hamilton-wah" "campbell-jja" "smith-jum" "scrivener-ctj" "fletcher-pjh" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "morgan-mra" "ward-jpt" "fowkes-fgr" "brockliss-lwb" "taylor-jhm" [6] "carruth-jas" "gibbs-mrj" "cantwell-bmj" "pearson-rca" "barnes-tre" [11] "ashford-mlj" "penney-jhw" "calverley-pma" "evans-jrg" "kennedy-pge" [16] "northover-jma" "thomas-weg" "vandenberg-cmg" "leonard-rcf" "djamgoz-mba" [21] "dawson-pms" [1] "uk-1988" [1] "top 20" [1] "in-pwk" "cooper-mke" "mcmahon-rtf" "whittamore-pro" "gibbons-clm" [6] "wilson-dtr" "elliot-tsj" "constable-pdl" "jones-pgh" "perkins-nja" [11] "porcheret-mep" "douglas-sle" "laffan-ddp" "ferguson-bjm" "elford-jcc" [16] "stewart-asj" "lyttelton-mpa" "king-djs" "robertson-jhb" "roberts-jsc" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "chan-slf" "phoenix-sjd" "tomlinson-ipm" "mak-jcw" "ellison-gth" [6] "belcher-hjcr" "odonnell-ljd" "frid-clj" "mclean-whi" "ong-elc" [11] "logan-rph" "roberts-isd" "bugg-tdh" "poon-wck" "moberly-rwl" [16] "beales-ilp" "coolen-acc" "elsegood-mrj" "williams-scr" "green-sjd" [21] "salje-ekh" [1] "uk-1998" [1] "top 20" [1] "peeters-sjm" "chong-iys" "lim-gek" "woolford-aja" "cranston-icp" [6] "karim-mma" "wong-cch" "rehman-sur" "tyrrell-jrj" "shah-rnh" [11] "hunter-hja" "duffy-jes" "blackburn-scf" "murphy-asj" "montalbetti-cagn" [16] "tullis-idc" "brooks-ams" "li-ckc" "quinlivan-rcm" "hemmings-jcp" [1] "bottom 20" [1] "rose-fraj" "brookes-zls" "balmer-jmt" "fu-chy" "schofield-wce" [6] "jeuken-ljc" "sparagano-oae" "ho-tbl" "houdijk-jgm" "gill-jmr" [11] "mitchell-arj" "busfield-jjc" "catto-jwf" "travis-jmj" "read-jca" [16] "shaffer-msp" "stumpf-mph" "marchand-thj" "prior-cwa" "kroon-jav" [21] "smith-mlr" [1] "------multivariable analysis - fractional productivity, adjusting for co-authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * (disc + av.coaut), family = gaussian) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.8912 -0.3150 0.0122 0.3128 4.1068 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 5.758e+03 2.395e+03 2.404 0.016207 * year.min -8.913e+00 3.665e+00 -2.432 0.015005 * I(year.min^2) 4.604e-03 1.869e-03 2.463 0.013771 * I(year.min^3) -7.933e-07 3.177e-07 -2.497 0.012536 * discmathematics 8.767e+02 1.073e+04 0.082 0.934850 discearth and space -2.760e+04 9.510e+03 -2.902 0.003708 ** discphysics 3.700e+03 7.161e+03 0.517 0.605394 discchemistry -1.643e+04 4.802e+03 -3.422 0.000622 *** discbiology -8.675e+01 5.825e+03 -0.015 0.988119 discbiomedical research 8.188e+02 4.314e+03 0.190 0.849474 discpsychology -2.333e+04 1.105e+04 -2.113 0.034647 * discsocial sciences -1.859e+04 8.074e+03 -2.303 0.021298 * discarts&humanities -2.570e+04 3.578e+04 -0.718 0.472551 discother -2.003e+04 6.047e+03 -3.312 0.000928 *** av.coaut 2.181e+01 6.587e+02 0.033 0.973588 year.min:discmathematics -1.137e+00 1.646e+01 -0.069 0.944908 year.min:discearth and space 4.233e+01 1.455e+01 2.910 0.003614 ** year.min:discphysics -5.506e+00 1.096e+01 -0.502 0.615411 year.min:discchemistry 2.544e+01 7.362e+00 3.456 0.000549 *** year.min:discbiology 1.611e-01 8.924e+00 0.018 0.985596 year.min:discbiomedical research -1.232e+00 6.611e+00 -0.186 0.852106 year.min:discpsychology 3.583e+01 1.692e+01 2.118 0.034188 * year.min:discsocial sciences 2.865e+01 1.238e+01 2.314 0.020675 * year.min:discarts&humanities 3.849e+01 5.440e+01 0.707 0.479290 year.min:discother 3.083e+01 9.259e+00 3.330 0.000871 *** year.min:av.coaut -1.150e-01 1.001e+00 -0.115 0.908529 I(year.min^2):discmathematics 4.743e-04 8.420e-03 0.056 0.955079 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.164e-02 7.415e-03 -2.918 0.003523 ** I(year.min^2):discphysics 2.728e-03 5.592e-03 0.488 0.625659 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.313e-02 3.762e-03 -3.489 0.000485 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology -9.769e-05 4.557e-03 -0.021 0.982895 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 6.187e-04 3.376e-03 0.183 0.854609 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -1.834e-02 8.636e-03 -2.123 0.033727 * I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -1.471e-02 6.328e-03 -2.325 0.020066 * I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -1.921e-02 2.757e-02 -0.697 0.486039 I(year.min^2):discother -1.582e-02 4.725e-03 -3.348 0.000816 *** I(year.min^2):av.coaut 9.877e-05 5.065e-04 0.195 0.845395 I(year.min^3):discmathematics -6.231e-08 1.435e-06 -0.043 0.965374 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 3.687e-06 1.260e-06 2.926 0.003434 ** I(year.min^3):discphysics -4.499e-07 9.509e-07 -0.473 0.636149 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 2.257e-06 6.406e-07 3.523 0.000427 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology 1.942e-08 7.754e-07 0.025 0.980017 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -1.036e-07 5.747e-07 -0.180 0.856994 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 3.128e-06 1.469e-06 2.129 0.033263 * I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 2.519e-06 1.078e-06 2.337 0.019468 * I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 3.195e-06 4.658e-06 0.686 0.492792 I(year.min^3):discother 2.706e-06 8.038e-07 3.366 0.000763 *** I(year.min^3):av.coaut -2.337e-08 8.548e-08 -0.273 0.784500 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.1946411) Null deviance: 9120.2 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 8054.1 on 41379 degrees of freedom AIC: 49815 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers adjusting for co-authors - 1980-1998-----" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ year.min * (disc + av.coaut), family = gaussian) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.77841 -0.31398 0.01336 0.31260 2.51104 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.274e+01 1.602e+00 7.953 1.90e-15 *** year.min -6.179e-03 8.052e-04 -7.674 1.73e-14 *** discmathematics -1.861e+01 1.083e+01 -1.718 0.08577 . discearth and space -1.657e+01 5.262e+00 -3.149 0.00164 ** discphysics -6.392e+00 5.144e+00 -1.243 0.21398 discchemistry -2.580e+01 4.167e+00 -6.192 6.04e-10 *** discbiology -3.544e+00 4.190e+00 -0.846 0.39758 discbiomedical research 5.370e+00 3.347e+00 1.604 0.10869 discpsychology -1.699e+01 8.211e+00 -2.069 0.03854 * discsocial sciences -9.808e+00 8.256e+00 -1.188 0.23486 discarts&humanities 1.220e+01 7.617e+00 1.601 0.10931 discother -1.889e+01 4.112e+00 -4.595 4.34e-06 *** av.coaut -5.165e-01 6.955e-02 -7.426 1.15e-13 *** year.min:discmathematics 9.526e-03 5.446e-03 1.749 0.08031 . year.min:discearth and space 8.384e-03 2.645e-03 3.170 0.00153 ** year.min:discphysics 3.338e-03 2.587e-03 1.291 0.19683 year.min:discchemistry 1.301e-02 2.095e-03 6.211 5.36e-10 *** year.min:discbiology 1.810e-03 2.106e-03 0.859 0.39025 year.min:discbiomedical research -2.681e-03 1.683e-03 -1.593 0.11110 year.min:discpsychology 8.658e-03 4.127e-03 2.098 0.03592 * year.min:discsocial sciences 5.079e-03 4.151e-03 1.223 0.22117 year.min:discarts&humanities -5.964e-03 3.832e-03 -1.556 0.11964 year.min:discother 9.549e-03 2.067e-03 4.620 3.85e-06 *** year.min:av.coaut 2.564e-04 3.490e-05 7.347 2.09e-13 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.1989133) Null deviance: 5122.5 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 4719.8 on 23728 degrees of freedom AIC: 29074 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers as first author, adjusting for co-authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * (disc + av.coaut), family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.42436 -0.35170 0.02046 0.32446 2.59547 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 6.073e+03 4.699e+03 1.292 0.1962 year.min -9.467e+00 7.189e+00 -1.317 0.1879 I(year.min^2) 4.920e-03 3.666e-03 1.342 0.1795 I(year.min^3) -8.526e-07 6.231e-07 -1.368 0.1712 discmathematics 7.865e+02 1.749e+04 0.045 0.9641 discearth and space -3.625e+04 1.749e+04 -2.072 0.0382 * discphysics 1.112e+04 1.183e+04 0.940 0.3472 discchemistry -2.074e+04 8.838e+03 -2.347 0.0189 * discbiology 4.457e+02 1.058e+04 0.042 0.9664 discbiomedical research 2.178e+03 7.570e+03 0.288 0.7736 discpsychology -1.936e+04 1.898e+04 -1.020 0.3078 discsocial sciences -1.567e+04 1.333e+04 -1.175 0.2399 discarts&humanities -3.265e+04 6.790e+04 -0.481 0.6306 discother -1.678e+04 1.157e+04 -1.450 0.1471 av.coaut 1.823e+03 1.807e+03 1.009 0.3131 year.min:discmathematics -1.072e+00 2.686e+01 -0.040 0.9682 year.min:discearth and space 5.556e+01 2.675e+01 2.077 0.0378 * year.min:discphysics -1.691e+01 1.812e+01 -0.934 0.3506 year.min:discchemistry 3.204e+01 1.355e+01 2.364 0.0181 * year.min:discbiology -6.563e-01 1.621e+01 -0.040 0.9677 year.min:discbiomedical research -3.315e+00 1.160e+01 -0.286 0.7751 year.min:discpsychology 2.968e+01 2.907e+01 1.021 0.3072 year.min:discsocial sciences 2.416e+01 2.045e+01 1.182 0.2374 year.min:discarts&humanities 4.912e+01 1.032e+02 0.476 0.6341 year.min:discother 2.574e+01 1.772e+01 1.453 0.1463 year.min:av.coaut -2.808e+00 2.746e+00 -1.022 0.3066 I(year.min^2):discmathematics 4.791e-04 1.374e-02 0.035 0.9722 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.838e-02 1.363e-02 -2.082 0.0373 * I(year.min^2):discphysics 8.571e-03 9.247e-03 0.927 0.3540 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.649e-02 6.927e-03 -2.381 0.0173 * I(year.min^2):discbiology 3.212e-04 8.278e-03 0.039 0.9691 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 1.682e-03 5.929e-03 0.284 0.7766 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -1.517e-02 1.484e-02 -1.022 0.3066 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -1.242e-02 1.045e-02 -1.188 0.2349 I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -2.463e-02 5.229e-02 -0.471 0.6376 I(year.min^2):discother -1.316e-02 9.043e-03 -1.456 0.1455 I(year.min^2):av.coaut 1.440e-03 1.391e-03 1.035 0.3006 I(year.min^3):discmathematics -6.989e-08 2.344e-06 -0.030 0.9762 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 4.833e-06 2.315e-06 2.087 0.0369 * I(year.min^3):discphysics -1.447e-06 1.573e-06 -0.920 0.3575 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 2.829e-06 1.180e-06 2.397 0.0165 * I(year.min^3):discbiology -5.221e-08 1.409e-06 -0.037 0.9704 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -2.846e-07 1.010e-06 -0.282 0.7781 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 2.584e-06 2.524e-06 1.024 0.3060 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 2.127e-06 1.781e-06 1.194 0.2325 I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 4.117e-06 8.830e-06 0.466 0.6411 I(year.min^3):discother 2.244e-06 1.538e-06 1.459 0.1447 I(year.min^3):av.coaut -2.461e-07 2.349e-07 -1.047 0.2950 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.5097122) Null deviance: 12565 on 41426 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 12087 on 41379 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers as first author, co-authors - 1980-1998-----" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ year.min * (disc + av.coaut), family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.35336 -0.32563 0.04201 0.33358 1.97493 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 6.907e+00 2.356e+00 2.931 0.00338 ** year.min -3.619e-03 1.184e-03 -3.057 0.00224 ** discmathematics -7.169e+00 1.301e+01 -0.551 0.58152 discearth and space -1.916e+01 6.770e+00 -2.830 0.00467 ** discphysics 3.866e+00 6.254e+00 0.618 0.53650 discchemistry -2.802e+01 5.653e+00 -4.956 7.25e-07 *** discbiology -3.236e+00 5.562e+00 -0.582 0.56076 discbiomedical research 3.442e+00 4.373e+00 0.787 0.43123 discpsychology -7.193e+00 1.007e+01 -0.714 0.47518 discsocial sciences -6.614e-01 9.925e+00 -0.067 0.94687 discarts&humanities 1.529e+01 9.159e+00 1.669 0.09510 . discother -5.593e+00 5.515e+00 -1.014 0.31047 av.coaut -1.817e+00 2.440e-01 -7.448 9.77e-14 *** year.min:discmathematics 3.690e-03 6.542e-03 0.564 0.57266 year.min:discearth and space 9.655e-03 3.402e-03 2.838 0.00455 ** year.min:discphysics -1.847e-03 3.145e-03 -0.587 0.55703 year.min:discchemistry 1.405e-02 2.842e-03 4.945 7.66e-07 *** year.min:discbiology 1.616e-03 2.796e-03 0.578 0.56343 year.min:discbiomedical research -1.718e-03 2.198e-03 -0.781 0.43464 year.min:discpsychology 3.685e-03 5.062e-03 0.728 0.46661 year.min:discsocial sciences 4.195e-04 4.990e-03 0.084 0.93301 year.min:discarts&humanities -7.599e-03 4.609e-03 -1.649 0.09920 . year.min:discother 2.789e-03 2.772e-03 1.006 0.31436 year.min:av.coaut 9.092e-04 1.223e-04 7.435 1.08e-13 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2482457) Null deviance: 7650.2 on 23751 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 7505.1 on 23728 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ [1] 21431 Robustness test, all analyses repeated with early-career time window extended to 25 years [1] "------Figure 1a------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.28026 -0.31658 0.02628 0.29771 1.18814 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.427e+04 3.284e+03 7.390 1.52e-13 *** year.min -3.736e+01 5.046e+00 -7.404 1.37e-13 *** I(year.min^2) 1.917e-02 2.585e-03 7.416 1.25e-13 *** I(year.min^3) -3.277e-06 4.412e-07 -7.428 1.15e-13 *** discmathematics -7.978e+03 1.532e+04 -0.521 0.60245 discearth and space -1.828e+04 1.453e+04 -1.258 0.20830 discphysics -2.297e+04 9.881e+03 -2.325 0.02010 * discchemistry -2.944e+04 7.131e+03 -4.129 3.66e-05 *** discbiology -5.349e+02 9.548e+03 -0.056 0.95533 discbiomedical research -3.650e+03 6.287e+03 -0.581 0.56157 discpsychology -2.694e+04 1.802e+04 -1.495 0.13499 discsocial sciences -3.681e+04 1.134e+04 -3.246 0.00117 ** discarts&humanities -1.359e+04 5.944e+04 -0.229 0.81912 discother -2.542e+04 9.375e+03 -2.711 0.00671 ** year.min:discmathematics 1.234e+01 2.357e+01 0.524 0.60056 year.min:discearth and space 2.804e+01 2.229e+01 1.258 0.20845 year.min:discphysics 3.551e+01 1.517e+01 2.341 0.01923 * year.min:discchemistry 4.541e+01 1.097e+01 4.141 3.47e-05 *** year.min:discbiology 8.554e-01 1.466e+01 0.058 0.95348 year.min:discbiomedical research 5.711e+00 9.666e+00 0.591 0.55459 year.min:discpsychology 4.146e+01 2.768e+01 1.498 0.13418 year.min:discsocial sciences 5.659e+01 1.744e+01 3.245 0.00118 ** year.min:discarts&humanities 2.018e+01 9.066e+01 0.223 0.82385 year.min:discother 3.923e+01 1.440e+01 2.724 0.00645 ** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -6.360e-03 1.209e-02 -0.526 0.59875 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -1.433e-02 1.140e-02 -1.257 0.20860 I(year.min^2):discphysics -1.829e-02 7.759e-03 -2.358 0.01839 * I(year.min^2):discchemistry -2.335e-02 5.621e-03 -4.154 3.28e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology -4.549e-04 7.504e-03 -0.061 0.95166 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -2.977e-03 4.953e-03 -0.601 0.54784 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -2.127e-02 1.417e-02 -1.501 0.13340 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -2.900e-02 8.940e-03 -3.243 0.00118 ** I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -9.978e-03 4.610e-02 -0.216 0.82864 I(year.min^2):discother -2.018e-02 7.372e-03 -2.737 0.00620 ** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 1.092e-06 2.066e-06 0.529 0.59703 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 2.442e-06 1.942e-06 1.257 0.20875 I(year.min^3):discphysics 3.141e-06 1.323e-06 2.374 0.01760 * I(year.min^3):discchemistry 4.000e-06 9.602e-07 4.166 3.11e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology 8.044e-08 1.280e-06 0.063 0.94989 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 5.167e-07 8.459e-07 0.611 0.54131 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 3.636e-06 2.418e-06 1.504 0.13266 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 4.951e-06 1.527e-06 3.241 0.00119 ** I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 1.643e-06 7.813e-06 0.210 0.83348 I(year.min^3):discother 3.459e-06 1.258e-06 2.750 0.00596 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.1829852) Null deviance: 4506.3 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 4272.7 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 1a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.29587 -0.32098 0.02302 0.29692 1.22234 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -21.912146 4.229656 -5.181 2.27e-07 *** year.min 0.011208 0.002131 5.259 1.49e-07 *** discmathematics -8.697968 28.335345 -0.307 0.75888 discearth and space -7.914474 13.960967 -0.567 0.57080 discphysics -25.184283 12.915840 -1.950 0.05123 . discchemistry -24.291739 12.374718 -1.963 0.04968 * discbiology -11.077356 11.806328 -0.938 0.34814 discbiomedical research 9.986528 9.329128 1.070 0.28444 discpsychology -24.645889 25.647802 -0.961 0.33661 discsocial sciences 18.975646 24.898528 0.762 0.44601 discarts&humanities 28.494075 25.757806 1.106 0.26866 discother -33.442335 12.031361 -2.780 0.00546 ** year.min:discmathematics 0.004343 0.014281 0.304 0.76104 year.min:discearth and space 0.003986 0.007035 0.567 0.57101 year.min:discphysics 0.012759 0.006508 1.960 0.04999 * year.min:discchemistry 0.012244 0.006236 1.963 0.04965 * year.min:discbiology 0.005542 0.005950 0.931 0.35162 year.min:discbiomedical research -0.005014 0.004702 -1.067 0.28621 year.min:discpsychology 0.012405 0.012926 0.960 0.33724 year.min:discsocial sciences -0.009662 0.012546 -0.770 0.44128 year.min:discarts&humanities -0.014484 0.012985 -1.115 0.26467 year.min:discother 0.016795 0.006062 2.771 0.00561 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.1883721) Null deviance: 1667.1 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 1603.4 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 1b------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -12.745 -0.912 -0.234 0.359 37.210 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -2.929e+03 4.388e+03 -0.668 0.5044 year.min 4.331e+00 6.719e+00 0.645 0.5192 I(year.min^2) -2.142e-03 3.429e-03 -0.625 0.5322 I(year.min^3) 3.545e-07 5.834e-07 0.608 0.5434 discmathematics -4.092e+04 3.759e+04 -1.088 0.2764 discearth and space -1.260e+04 2.478e+04 -0.508 0.6111 discphysics -2.281e+04 1.319e+04 -1.729 0.0838 . discchemistry -9.597e+03 8.669e+03 -1.107 0.2683 discbiology -5.807e+03 1.544e+04 -0.376 0.7069 discbiomedical research -6.210e+03 7.864e+03 -0.790 0.4297 discpsychology -3.658e+04 4.028e+04 -0.908 0.3638 discsocial sciences 6.286e+04 3.006e+04 2.091 0.0365 * discarts&humanities -1.298e+05 3.250e+05 -0.399 0.6897 discother -1.401e+04 1.398e+04 -1.002 0.3161 year.min:discmathematics 6.270e+01 5.761e+01 1.088 0.2765 year.min:discearth and space 1.945e+01 3.785e+01 0.514 0.6075 year.min:discphysics 3.540e+01 2.019e+01 1.754 0.0795 . year.min:discchemistry 1.494e+01 1.330e+01 1.124 0.2612 year.min:discbiology 9.294e+00 2.366e+01 0.393 0.6944 year.min:discbiomedical research 9.690e+00 1.206e+01 0.804 0.4217 year.min:discpsychology 5.621e+01 6.165e+01 0.912 0.3619 year.min:discsocial sciences -9.538e+01 4.619e+01 -2.065 0.0390 * year.min:discarts&humanities 2.000e+02 4.952e+02 0.404 0.6863 year.min:discother 2.189e+01 2.146e+01 1.020 0.3076 I(year.min^2):discmathematics -3.203e-02 2.943e-02 -1.088 0.2765 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -1.001e-02 1.928e-02 -0.519 0.6037 I(year.min^2):discphysics -1.831e-02 1.029e-02 -1.779 0.0753 . I(year.min^2):discchemistry -7.750e-03 6.801e-03 -1.140 0.2545 I(year.min^2):discbiology -4.949e-03 1.208e-02 -0.410 0.6820 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -5.038e-03 6.164e-03 -0.817 0.4138 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -2.880e-02 3.145e-02 -0.916 0.3598 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences 4.822e-02 2.366e-02 2.038 0.0416 * I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -1.028e-01 2.515e-01 -0.409 0.6828 I(year.min^2):discother -1.139e-02 1.097e-02 -1.038 0.2993 I(year.min^3):discmathematics 5.453e-06 5.010e-06 1.088 0.2765 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 1.716e-06 3.272e-06 0.524 0.5999 I(year.min^3):discphysics 3.157e-06 1.750e-06 1.804 0.0713 . I(year.min^3):discchemistry 1.339e-06 1.159e-06 1.155 0.2481 I(year.min^3):discbiology 8.767e-07 2.056e-06 0.426 0.6698 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 8.727e-07 1.050e-06 0.831 0.4059 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 4.917e-06 5.347e-06 0.920 0.3578 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences -8.123e-06 4.039e-06 -2.011 0.0443 * I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 1.759e-05 4.257e-05 0.413 0.6794 I(year.min^3):discother 1.974e-06 1.871e-06 1.055 0.2913 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 2.661674) Null deviance: 110046 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 50723 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 1b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -9.076 -0.835 -0.224 0.304 37.075 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -34.574895 3.285462 -10.524 < 2e-16 *** year.min 0.017281 0.001655 10.439 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics 24.177546 41.410887 0.584 0.5593 discearth and space -20.256041 12.547135 -1.614 0.1065 discphysics -47.168262 8.790709 -5.366 8.29e-08 *** discchemistry -2.868510 10.298389 -0.279 0.7806 discbiology -30.993132 12.374548 -2.505 0.0123 * discbiomedical research -11.233184 7.680466 -1.463 0.1436 discpsychology -14.982295 27.797618 -0.539 0.5899 discsocial sciences -22.085207 44.600641 -0.495 0.6205 discarts&humanities -99.758878 102.834315 -0.970 0.3320 discother -18.540419 14.566477 -1.273 0.2031 year.min:discmathematics -0.012538 0.020869 -0.601 0.5480 year.min:discearth and space 0.010144 0.006321 1.605 0.1086 year.min:discphysics 0.023861 0.004428 5.388 7.33e-08 *** year.min:discchemistry 0.001369 0.005189 0.264 0.7919 year.min:discbiology 0.015485 0.006235 2.484 0.0130 * year.min:discbiomedical research 0.005641 0.003870 1.457 0.1450 year.min:discpsychology 0.007333 0.014004 0.524 0.6005 year.min:discsocial sciences 0.010634 0.022470 0.473 0.6360 year.min:discarts&humanities 0.048945 0.051837 0.944 0.3451 year.min:discother 0.009115 0.007337 1.242 0.2142 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 3.256914) Null deviance: 32020 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 21895 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 2a------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -35.682 -2.438 -1.699 -0.450 34.298 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.597e+04 4.147e+03 8.674 < 2e-16 *** year.min -5.543e+01 6.365e+00 -8.709 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^2) 2.848e-02 3.256e-03 8.745 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^3) -4.875e-06 5.552e-07 -8.781 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -2.915e+04 2.135e+04 -1.366 0.17201 discearth and space -5.468e+04 1.996e+04 -2.739 0.00617 ** discphysics 1.929e+02 1.241e+04 0.016 0.98760 discchemistry -3.815e+04 8.722e+03 -4.374 1.23e-05 *** discbiology 9.114e+03 1.391e+04 0.655 0.51248 discbiomedical research 1.658e+04 7.472e+03 2.219 0.02648 * discpsychology -3.336e+04 2.384e+04 -1.399 0.16182 discsocial sciences -4.025e+04 1.606e+04 -2.507 0.01219 * discarts&humanities 2.266e+05 9.025e+04 2.511 0.01203 * discother 1.173e+03 1.254e+04 0.094 0.92543 year.min:discmathematics 4.478e+01 3.285e+01 1.363 0.17291 year.min:discearth and space 8.399e+01 3.059e+01 2.746 0.00604 ** year.min:discphysics -2.505e-01 1.903e+01 -0.013 0.98950 year.min:discchemistry 5.876e+01 1.340e+01 4.384 1.17e-05 *** year.min:discbiology -1.401e+01 2.135e+01 -0.656 0.51171 year.min:discbiomedical research -2.548e+01 1.148e+01 -2.219 0.02653 * year.min:discpsychology 5.137e+01 3.659e+01 1.404 0.16042 year.min:discsocial sciences 6.184e+01 2.469e+01 2.505 0.01227 * year.min:discarts&humanities -3.464e+02 1.376e+02 -2.517 0.01185 * year.min:discother -1.642e+00 1.926e+01 -0.085 0.93206 I(year.min^2):discmathematics -2.292e-02 1.685e-02 -1.360 0.17384 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -4.300e-02 1.562e-02 -2.752 0.00593 ** I(year.min^2):discphysics 1.067e-04 9.726e-03 0.011 0.99125 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -3.017e-02 6.864e-03 -4.395 1.11e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology 7.179e-03 1.092e-02 0.657 0.51093 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 1.305e-02 5.882e-03 2.218 0.02656 * I(year.min^2):discpsychology -2.636e-02 1.872e-02 -1.408 0.15908 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -3.166e-02 1.265e-02 -2.502 0.01236 * I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities 1.765e-01 6.997e-02 2.522 0.01168 * I(year.min^2):discother 7.589e-04 9.866e-03 0.077 0.93869 I(year.min^3):discmathematics 3.910e-06 2.881e-06 1.357 0.17481 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 7.336e-06 2.660e-06 2.758 0.00581 ** I(year.min^3):discphysics -1.484e-08 1.657e-06 -0.009 0.99286 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 5.162e-06 1.172e-06 4.405 1.06e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology -1.226e-06 1.862e-06 -0.659 0.51015 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -2.228e-06 1.004e-06 -2.218 0.02655 * I(year.min^3):discpsychology 4.509e-06 3.192e-06 1.413 0.15777 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 5.402e-06 2.162e-06 2.499 0.01246 * I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities -2.997e-05 1.186e-05 -2.527 0.01150 * I(year.min^3):discother -1.156e-07 1.684e-06 -0.069 0.94529 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 7.384229) Null deviance: 165448 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 157927 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: 37704 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 2a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -35.842 -2.672 -1.938 -0.548 33.645 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 6.134763 4.795482 1.279 0.200836 year.min -0.002469 0.002416 -1.022 0.306910 discmathematics -39.246414 42.729705 -0.918 0.358395 discearth and space -26.535623 17.277035 -1.536 0.124606 discphysics 25.777358 13.853015 1.861 0.062813 . discchemistry 7.974030 14.045588 0.568 0.570238 discbiology 8.415501 16.011330 0.526 0.599183 discbiomedical research 37.396284 11.038135 3.388 0.000708 *** discpsychology -50.373837 32.808698 -1.535 0.124731 discsocial sciences -35.666349 40.084487 -0.890 0.373612 discarts&humanities 94.295947 40.966187 2.302 0.021373 * discother -15.952673 17.190927 -0.928 0.353451 year.min:discmathematics 0.019740 0.021534 0.917 0.359324 year.min:discearth and space 0.013331 0.008705 1.531 0.125700 year.min:discphysics -0.013043 0.006980 -1.869 0.061696 . year.min:discchemistry -0.003951 0.007078 -0.558 0.576749 year.min:discbiology -0.004316 0.008068 -0.535 0.592691 year.min:discbiomedical research -0.018901 0.005563 -3.398 0.000683 *** year.min:discpsychology 0.025374 0.016531 1.535 0.124844 year.min:discsocial sciences 0.017944 0.020197 0.888 0.374312 year.min:discarts&humanities -0.047430 0.020655 -2.296 0.021688 * year.min:discother 0.007994 0.008660 0.923 0.355987 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 9.212294) Null deviance: 74568 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 72270 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: 14905 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 2b------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.56987 -0.33713 0.04096 0.31926 1.45342 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.436e+04 3.992e+03 6.104 1.05e-09 *** year.min -3.759e+01 6.137e+00 -6.126 9.20e-10 *** I(year.min^2) 1.933e-02 3.145e-03 6.148 8.01e-10 *** I(year.min^3) -3.314e-06 5.371e-07 -6.170 6.96e-10 *** discmathematics -5.312e+03 1.732e+04 -0.307 0.759143 discearth and space -3.594e+03 1.703e+04 -0.211 0.832907 discphysics -1.946e+04 1.183e+04 -1.645 0.099938 . discchemistry -2.887e+04 8.832e+03 -3.269 0.001082 ** discbiology 1.354e+04 1.128e+04 1.201 0.229903 discbiomedical research 1.312e+03 7.672e+03 0.171 0.864259 discpsychology -1.346e+04 2.066e+04 -0.651 0.514773 discsocial sciences -2.096e+04 1.254e+04 -1.671 0.094692 . discarts&humanities 2.235e+03 6.268e+04 0.036 0.971551 discother -1.070e+04 1.091e+04 -0.980 0.327032 year.min:discmathematics 8.202e+00 2.667e+01 0.308 0.758409 year.min:discearth and space 5.408e+00 2.615e+01 0.207 0.836132 year.min:discphysics 3.013e+01 1.816e+01 1.659 0.097118 . year.min:discchemistry 4.458e+01 1.359e+01 3.281 0.001038 ** year.min:discbiology -2.084e+01 1.733e+01 -1.203 0.229154 year.min:discbiomedical research -1.956e+00 1.180e+01 -0.166 0.868350 year.min:discpsychology 2.062e+01 3.174e+01 0.650 0.516010 year.min:discsocial sciences 3.215e+01 1.930e+01 1.666 0.095691 . year.min:discarts&humanities -3.822e+00 9.562e+01 -0.040 0.968113 year.min:discother 1.657e+01 1.677e+01 0.988 0.323201 I(year.min^2):discmathematics -4.220e-03 1.368e-02 -0.309 0.757695 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.712e-03 1.338e-02 -0.203 0.839313 I(year.min^2):discphysics -1.555e-02 9.296e-03 -1.673 0.094374 . I(year.min^2):discchemistry -2.294e-02 6.968e-03 -3.292 0.000996 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology 1.069e-02 8.874e-03 1.204 0.228425 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 9.725e-04 6.050e-03 0.161 0.872300 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -1.053e-02 1.626e-02 -0.648 0.517277 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -1.643e-02 9.894e-03 -1.661 0.096722 . I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities 2.152e-03 4.863e-02 0.044 0.964693 I(year.min^2):discother -8.553e-03 8.589e-03 -0.996 0.319384 I(year.min^3):discmathematics 7.238e-07 2.339e-06 0.309 0.756994 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 4.534e-07 2.281e-06 0.199 0.842446 I(year.min^3):discphysics 2.675e-06 1.586e-06 1.687 0.091701 . I(year.min^3):discchemistry 3.935e-06 1.191e-06 3.303 0.000957 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology -1.827e-06 1.515e-06 -1.206 0.227716 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -1.612e-07 1.034e-06 -0.156 0.876116 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 1.791e-06 2.775e-06 0.646 0.518569 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 2.800e-06 1.691e-06 1.656 0.097784 . I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities -4.000e-07 8.242e-06 -0.049 0.961292 I(year.min^3):discother 1.472e-06 1.466e-06 1.004 0.315586 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2163) Null deviance: 6009.4 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 5830.6 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 2b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.49192 -0.34343 0.04327 0.33517 1.38172 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -9.835494 6.059784 -1.623 0.1046 year.min 0.004883 0.003054 1.599 0.1099 discmathematics 6.231718 36.251003 0.172 0.8635 discearth and space 14.953315 19.255174 0.777 0.4374 discphysics -33.685812 18.355840 -1.835 0.0665 . discchemistry -21.027402 17.938495 -1.172 0.2412 discbiology 9.240670 16.328130 0.566 0.5715 discbiomedical research 19.013330 13.355228 1.424 0.1546 discpsychology -34.285527 34.014535 -1.008 0.3135 discsocial sciences 38.454353 30.325838 1.268 0.2048 discarts&humanities 21.978306 29.030024 0.757 0.4490 discother -18.758463 16.352670 -1.147 0.2514 year.min:discmathematics -0.003062 0.018272 -0.168 0.8669 year.min:discearth and space -0.007494 0.009704 -0.772 0.4400 year.min:discphysics 0.017052 0.009250 1.844 0.0653 . year.min:discchemistry 0.010586 0.009041 1.171 0.2417 year.min:discbiology -0.004656 0.008229 -0.566 0.5716 year.min:discbiomedical research -0.009562 0.006731 -1.421 0.1555 year.min:discpsychology 0.017343 0.017143 1.012 0.3117 year.min:discsocial sciences -0.019308 0.015282 -1.263 0.2065 year.min:discarts&humanities -0.010950 0.014634 -0.748 0.4543 year.min:discother 0.009456 0.008240 1.148 0.2511 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2400111) Null deviance: 2472.1 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 2443.7 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Same as Figure 2b, for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.40422 -0.53750 -0.06973 0.39947 2.30754 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 4.506e+04 7.028e+03 6.412 1.46e-10 *** year.min -6.985e+01 1.079e+01 -6.474 9.74e-11 *** I(year.min^2) 3.608e-02 5.521e-03 6.535 6.51e-11 *** I(year.min^3) -6.209e-06 9.416e-07 -6.594 4.37e-11 *** discmathematics -1.434e+05 8.088e+04 -1.773 0.076322 . discearth and space -3.717e+04 3.007e+04 -1.236 0.216514 discphysics -5.949e+04 2.099e+04 -2.834 0.004602 ** discchemistry -4.750e+04 1.382e+04 -3.436 0.000592 *** discbiology -2.527e+03 1.975e+04 -0.128 0.898174 discbiomedical research -3.770e+03 1.285e+04 -0.293 0.769330 discpsychology -1.094e+05 5.321e+04 -2.056 0.039785 * discsocial sciences -4.067e+04 3.986e+04 -1.020 0.307636 discarts&humanities -9.804e+05 7.484e+05 -1.310 0.190225 discother -7.235e+04 2.253e+04 -3.211 0.001324 ** year.min:discmathematics 2.193e+02 1.237e+02 1.773 0.076191 . year.min:discearth and space 5.736e+01 4.609e+01 1.245 0.213300 year.min:discphysics 9.183e+01 3.219e+01 2.853 0.004341 ** year.min:discchemistry 7.349e+01 2.125e+01 3.458 0.000545 *** year.min:discbiology 4.196e+00 3.030e+01 0.138 0.889865 year.min:discbiomedical research 5.941e+00 1.975e+01 0.301 0.763562 year.min:discpsychology 1.683e+02 8.150e+01 2.065 0.038976 * year.min:discsocial sciences 6.391e+01 6.123e+01 1.044 0.296623 year.min:discarts&humanities 1.494e+03 1.139e+03 1.312 0.189664 year.min:discother 1.115e+02 3.455e+01 3.228 0.001248 ** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -1.118e-01 6.302e-02 -1.774 0.076045 . I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.951e-02 2.354e-02 -1.253 0.210113 I(year.min^2):discphysics -4.724e-02 1.646e-02 -2.871 0.004096 ** I(year.min^2):discchemistry -3.789e-02 1.089e-02 -3.480 0.000502 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology -2.309e-03 1.550e-02 -0.149 0.881558 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -3.115e-03 1.011e-02 -0.308 0.758036 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -8.627e-02 4.162e-02 -2.073 0.038177 * I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -3.346e-02 3.134e-02 -1.068 0.285748 I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -7.584e-01 5.775e-01 -1.313 0.189098 I(year.min^2):discother -5.730e-02 1.766e-02 -3.245 0.001175 ** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 1.900e-05 1.070e-05 1.775 0.075884 . I(year.min^3):discearth and space 5.059e-06 4.009e-06 1.262 0.206954 I(year.min^3):discphysics 8.100e-06 2.804e-06 2.889 0.003865 ** I(year.min^3):discchemistry 6.511e-06 1.859e-06 3.502 0.000463 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology 4.215e-07 2.642e-06 0.160 0.873258 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 5.438e-07 1.726e-06 0.315 0.752743 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 1.474e-05 7.082e-06 2.082 0.037388 * I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 5.838e-06 5.348e-06 1.092 0.275037 I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 1.284e-04 9.762e-05 1.315 0.188529 I(year.min^3):discother 9.812e-06 3.008e-06 3.263 0.001106 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.3686489) Null deviance: 10666.6 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 9330.6 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 [1] "------Same as Figure 2b - 1980-1998 - for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.48296 -0.59015 -0.06923 0.42394 1.83036 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -1.147e+01 8.423e+00 -1.362 0.17331 year.min 5.639e-03 4.245e-03 1.329 0.18405 discmathematics -7.153e+01 5.456e+01 -1.311 0.18988 discearth and space -2.667e+01 2.611e+01 -1.022 0.30700 discphysics -6.013e+01 2.486e+01 -2.419 0.01560 * discchemistry -4.402e+01 2.383e+01 -1.847 0.06474 . discbiology -1.896e+01 2.255e+01 -0.841 0.40049 discbiomedical research 3.038e+01 1.852e+01 1.641 0.10089 discpsychology -9.726e+01 4.727e+01 -2.058 0.03966 * discsocial sciences -6.901e+01 5.464e+01 -1.263 0.20660 discarts&humanities -1.428e+02 1.240e+02 -1.152 0.24949 discother -6.435e+01 2.263e+01 -2.844 0.00447 ** year.min:discmathematics 3.604e-02 2.749e-02 1.311 0.19000 year.min:discearth and space 1.351e-02 1.316e-02 1.027 0.30457 year.min:discphysics 3.041e-02 1.253e-02 2.427 0.01524 * year.min:discchemistry 2.222e-02 1.201e-02 1.851 0.06427 . year.min:discbiology 9.562e-03 1.136e-02 0.842 0.40009 year.min:discbiomedical research -1.529e-02 9.333e-03 -1.638 0.10144 year.min:discpsychology 4.908e-02 2.382e-02 2.060 0.03940 * year.min:discsocial sciences 3.458e-02 2.753e-02 1.256 0.20912 year.min:discarts&humanities 7.093e-02 6.249e-02 1.135 0.25637 year.min:discother 3.244e-02 1.140e-02 2.845 0.00445 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.4058915) Null deviance: 4002.4 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 3806.0 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 3a, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -39.409 -2.359 -1.668 -0.469 36.983 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.282e+04 4.726e+03 6.945 3.90e-12 *** year.min -5.057e+01 7.264e+00 -6.963 3.44e-12 *** I(year.min^2) 2.598e-02 3.721e-03 6.981 3.02e-12 *** I(year.min^3) -4.448e-06 6.354e-07 -7.000 2.64e-12 *** count.goodaustralia -1.574e+03 3.234e+04 -0.049 0.9612 count.goodcanada 1.536e+04 1.434e+04 1.071 0.2841 count.goodfrance 4.720e+02 9.337e+04 0.005 0.9960 count.goodgermany -1.157e+05 1.906e+05 -0.607 0.5438 count.goodnetherlands 2.409e+04 1.033e+04 2.331 0.0198 * count.goodnew-zealand -1.950e+04 3.325e+04 -0.587 0.5575 count.goodother -2.040e+04 1.795e+04 -1.136 0.2558 count.goodportugal 3.688e+04 1.229e+05 0.300 0.7641 count.goodspain -7.416e+02 4.200e+04 -0.018 0.9859 count.gooduk -5.410e+03 6.434e+03 -0.841 0.4005 year.min:count.goodaustralia 2.445e+00 4.940e+01 0.049 0.9605 year.min:count.goodcanada -2.364e+01 2.198e+01 -1.075 0.2823 year.min:count.goodfrance -1.197e+00 1.425e+02 -0.008 0.9933 year.min:count.goodgermany 1.740e+02 2.897e+02 0.601 0.5481 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -3.679e+01 1.584e+01 -2.322 0.0202 * year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 2.995e+01 5.099e+01 0.587 0.5569 year.min:count.goodother 3.139e+01 2.757e+01 1.139 0.2549 year.min:count.goodportugal -5.628e+01 1.873e+02 -0.300 0.7638 year.min:count.goodspain 7.193e-01 6.423e+01 0.011 0.9911 year.min:count.gooduk 8.369e+00 9.891e+00 0.846 0.3975 I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -1.267e-03 2.515e-02 -0.050 0.9598 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada 1.213e-02 1.124e-02 1.079 0.2805 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance 8.504e-04 7.247e-02 0.012 0.9906 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -8.718e-02 1.467e-01 -0.594 0.5524 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.873e-02 8.096e-03 2.313 0.0207 * I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand -1.533e-02 2.606e-02 -0.588 0.5563 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -1.610e-02 1.411e-02 -1.141 0.2539 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal 2.861e-02 9.515e-02 0.301 0.7637 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -1.525e-04 3.275e-02 -0.005 0.9963 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk -4.316e-03 5.068e-03 -0.852 0.3944 I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 2.191e-07 4.269e-06 0.051 0.9591 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada -2.073e-06 1.914e-06 -1.083 0.2788 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance -1.850e-07 1.229e-05 -0.015 0.9880 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 1.456e-05 2.477e-05 0.588 0.5567 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -3.178e-06 1.379e-06 -2.304 0.0212 * I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand 2.617e-06 4.440e-06 0.589 0.5556 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 2.751e-06 2.406e-06 1.143 0.2529 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal -4.847e-06 1.611e-05 -0.301 0.7636 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain -1.095e-08 5.565e-06 -0.002 0.9984 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk 7.420e-07 8.654e-07 0.857 0.3912 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 7.343231) Null deviance: 165448 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 157050 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: 37585 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 3a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -39.883 -2.510 -1.771 -0.588 37.451 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 49.654735 7.651962 6.489 9.16e-11 *** year.min -0.024408 0.003856 -6.329 2.60e-10 *** count.goodaustralia -36.041232 19.523562 -1.846 0.0649 . count.goodcanada -29.362995 18.092247 -1.623 0.1046 count.goodfrance -31.581535 36.317980 -0.870 0.3846 count.goodgermany -41.577041 23.643822 -1.758 0.0787 . count.goodnetherlands -46.547233 9.691159 -4.803 1.59e-06 *** count.goodnew-zealand -36.241017 39.734164 -0.912 0.3618 count.goodother -89.328855 18.365841 -4.864 1.17e-06 *** count.goodportugal -59.405239 23.329409 -2.546 0.0109 * count.goodspain 20.035116 17.939600 1.117 0.2641 count.gooduk -42.790099 10.984182 -3.896 9.88e-05 *** year.min:count.goodaustralia 0.018177 0.009838 1.848 0.0647 . year.min:count.goodcanada 0.014765 0.009118 1.619 0.1054 year.min:count.goodfrance 0.015846 0.018299 0.866 0.3865 year.min:count.goodgermany 0.021008 0.011913 1.763 0.0779 . year.min:count.goodnetherlands 0.023466 0.004883 4.805 1.57e-06 *** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 0.018234 0.020025 0.911 0.3625 year.min:count.goodother 0.044975 0.009252 4.861 1.19e-06 *** year.min:count.goodportugal 0.029936 0.011753 2.547 0.0109 * year.min:count.goodspain -0.010328 0.009043 -1.142 0.2534 year.min:count.gooduk 0.021579 0.005536 3.898 9.77e-05 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 8.956285) Null deviance: 74568 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 70262 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: 14684 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 3b, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.52228 -0.32562 0.03552 0.30797 1.58458 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.782e+04 4.535e+03 3.931 8.50e-05 *** year.min -2.744e+01 6.974e+00 -3.934 8.37e-05 *** I(year.min^2) 1.408e-02 3.575e-03 3.938 8.25e-05 *** I(year.min^3) -2.407e-06 6.108e-07 -3.941 8.13e-05 *** count.goodaustralia -3.863e+04 2.802e+04 -1.379 0.1679 count.goodcanada 1.090e+04 1.123e+04 0.970 0.3318 count.goodfrance -6.552e+04 7.369e+04 -0.889 0.3739 count.goodgermany -6.854e+04 1.427e+05 -0.480 0.6310 count.goodnetherlands 1.938e+04 9.669e+03 2.004 0.0451 * count.goodnew-zealand 2.077e+04 2.579e+04 0.805 0.4206 count.goodother -2.420e+04 1.653e+04 -1.464 0.1431 count.goodportugal 1.122e+05 9.361e+04 1.198 0.2309 count.goodspain -4.683e+04 3.074e+04 -1.523 0.1277 count.gooduk -9.683e+03 6.097e+03 -1.588 0.1123 year.min:count.goodaustralia 5.887e+01 4.285e+01 1.374 0.1695 year.min:count.goodcanada -1.678e+01 1.726e+01 -0.972 0.3311 year.min:count.goodfrance 1.003e+02 1.126e+02 0.891 0.3732 year.min:count.goodgermany 1.034e+02 2.175e+02 0.475 0.6345 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -2.961e+01 1.484e+01 -1.995 0.0461 * year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -3.208e+01 3.964e+01 -0.809 0.4183 year.min:count.goodother 3.736e+01 2.541e+01 1.470 0.1415 year.min:count.goodportugal -1.710e+02 1.429e+02 -1.196 0.2316 year.min:count.goodspain 7.198e+01 4.715e+01 1.527 0.1269 year.min:count.gooduk 1.496e+01 9.379e+00 1.595 0.1108 I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -2.990e-02 2.184e-02 -1.369 0.1710 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada 8.604e-03 8.840e-03 0.973 0.3304 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -5.117e-02 5.737e-02 -0.892 0.3725 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -5.199e-02 1.105e-01 -0.470 0.6380 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.508e-02 7.595e-03 1.986 0.0471 * I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand 1.651e-02 2.030e-02 0.813 0.4161 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -1.922e-02 1.302e-02 -1.476 0.1398 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal 8.687e-02 7.273e-02 1.194 0.2323 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -3.687e-02 2.410e-02 -1.530 0.1261 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk -7.702e-03 4.809e-03 -1.602 0.1093 I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 5.062e-06 3.711e-06 1.364 0.1726 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada -1.471e-06 1.509e-06 -0.975 0.3297 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 8.701e-06 9.740e-06 0.893 0.3717 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 8.713e-06 1.871e-05 0.466 0.6415 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -2.560e-06 1.295e-06 -1.976 0.0481 * I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -2.831e-06 3.465e-06 -0.817 0.4139 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 3.295e-06 2.223e-06 1.482 0.1383 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal -1.471e-05 1.234e-05 -1.193 0.2330 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 6.295e-06 4.107e-06 1.533 0.1253 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk 1.322e-06 8.220e-07 1.608 0.1078 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2069131) Null deviance: 6009.4 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 5534.3 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 3b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.50670 -0.30648 0.03775 0.30667 1.62675 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 4.459376 8.238569 0.541 0.588330 year.min -0.002232 0.004152 -0.538 0.590812 count.goodaustralia -19.231414 19.708494 -0.976 0.329197 count.goodcanada -13.089381 18.376167 -0.712 0.476299 count.goodfrance -61.595183 39.151341 -1.573 0.115699 count.goodgermany 5.391258 27.999355 0.193 0.847317 count.goodnetherlands -7.591504 11.093844 -0.684 0.493807 count.goodnew-zealand -19.547370 39.902943 -0.490 0.624238 count.goodother -72.797088 21.058109 -3.457 0.000549 *** count.goodportugal -3.460557 26.362327 -0.131 0.895566 count.goodspain -18.823575 17.233922 -1.092 0.274761 count.gooduk -10.062680 12.363670 -0.814 0.415732 year.min:count.goodaustralia 0.009658 0.009933 0.972 0.330933 year.min:count.goodcanada 0.006563 0.009262 0.709 0.478551 year.min:count.goodfrance 0.030941 0.019726 1.569 0.116793 year.min:count.goodgermany -0.002674 0.014110 -0.189 0.849712 year.min:count.goodnetherlands 0.003739 0.005591 0.669 0.503655 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 0.009788 0.020112 0.487 0.626512 year.min:count.goodother 0.036618 0.010610 3.451 0.000561 *** year.min:count.goodportugal 0.001618 0.013283 0.122 0.903069 year.min:count.goodspain 0.009118 0.008686 1.050 0.293887 year.min:count.gooduk 0.005067 0.006231 0.813 0.416186 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2170903) Null deviance: 2472.1 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 2173.5 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Same as Figure 3b for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.45967 -0.61169 -0.04864 0.41401 1.98610 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -2.961e+03 8.617e+03 -0.344 0.7311 year.min 4.296e+00 1.324e+01 0.324 0.7456 I(year.min^2) -2.074e-03 6.778e-03 -0.306 0.7596 I(year.min^3) 3.333e-07 1.157e-06 0.288 0.7733 count.goodaustralia -4.385e+04 5.383e+04 -0.814 0.4154 count.goodcanada 1.083e+04 2.245e+04 0.482 0.6296 count.goodfrance -1.237e+05 1.615e+05 -0.766 0.4435 count.goodgermany -6.129e+04 2.042e+05 -0.300 0.7640 count.goodnetherlands 3.617e+04 1.774e+04 2.039 0.0415 * count.goodnew-zealand 3.176e+04 5.724e+04 0.555 0.5790 count.goodother 4.040e+04 2.974e+04 1.358 0.1744 count.goodportugal -5.515e+05 5.189e+05 -1.063 0.2878 count.goodspain -1.180e+05 1.067e+05 -1.106 0.2688 count.gooduk 4.222e+03 1.154e+04 0.366 0.7145 year.min:count.goodaustralia 6.624e+01 8.224e+01 0.805 0.4206 year.min:count.goodcanada -1.677e+01 3.442e+01 -0.487 0.6261 year.min:count.goodfrance 1.874e+02 2.463e+02 0.761 0.4468 year.min:count.goodgermany 9.246e+01 3.112e+02 0.297 0.7664 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -5.568e+01 2.719e+01 -2.048 0.0406 * year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -4.929e+01 8.771e+01 -0.562 0.5741 year.min:count.goodother -6.193e+01 4.567e+01 -1.356 0.1751 year.min:count.goodportugal 8.371e+02 7.881e+02 1.062 0.2882 year.min:count.goodspain 1.798e+02 1.627e+02 1.105 0.2690 year.min:count.gooduk -6.321e+00 1.773e+01 -0.356 0.7215 I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -3.336e-02 4.188e-02 -0.797 0.4257 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada 8.659e-03 1.760e-02 0.492 0.6227 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -9.459e-02 1.253e-01 -0.755 0.4501 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -4.649e-02 1.581e-01 -0.294 0.7687 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 2.856e-02 1.389e-02 2.056 0.0398 * I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand 2.549e-02 4.480e-02 0.569 0.5693 I(year.min^2):count.goodother 3.165e-02 2.337e-02 1.354 0.1758 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -4.235e-01 3.991e-01 -1.061 0.2886 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -9.134e-02 8.266e-02 -1.105 0.2691 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 3.151e-03 9.082e-03 0.347 0.7287 I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 5.598e-06 7.108e-06 0.788 0.4309 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada -1.490e-06 2.999e-06 -0.497 0.6193 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 1.591e-05 2.123e-05 0.750 0.4535 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 7.793e-06 2.677e-05 0.291 0.7710 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -4.884e-06 2.366e-06 -2.064 0.0390 * I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -4.394e-06 7.626e-06 -0.576 0.5645 I(year.min^3):count.goodother -5.389e-06 3.987e-06 -1.352 0.1765 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 7.143e-05 6.735e-05 1.061 0.2889 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 1.546e-05 1.400e-05 1.105 0.2693 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -5.229e-07 1.550e-06 -0.337 0.7359 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.3924992) Null deviance: 10667 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 10199 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Same as Figure 3b - 1980-1998 - for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.48164 -0.61869 -0.05233 0.40956 2.00521 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -4.176291 12.573381 -0.332 0.73978 year.min 0.002002 0.006337 0.316 0.75204 count.goodaustralia -48.738513 29.824566 -1.634 0.10226 count.goodcanada -75.283049 27.468218 -2.741 0.00614 ** count.goodfrance 8.168430 60.139852 0.136 0.89196 count.goodgermany -25.125737 40.061242 -0.627 0.53056 count.goodnetherlands -8.861775 16.469193 -0.538 0.59054 count.goodnew-zealand -12.426028 58.673299 -0.212 0.83228 count.goodother -62.091388 30.084316 -2.064 0.03906 * count.goodportugal -55.730278 36.159172 -1.541 0.12330 count.goodspain 5.844273 25.071798 0.233 0.81569 count.gooduk -30.817661 18.427868 -1.672 0.09450 . year.min:count.goodaustralia 0.024537 0.015030 1.632 0.10261 year.min:count.goodcanada 0.037929 0.013842 2.740 0.00616 ** year.min:count.goodfrance -0.004219 0.030303 -0.139 0.88928 year.min:count.goodgermany 0.012777 0.020186 0.633 0.52679 year.min:count.goodnetherlands 0.004443 0.008299 0.535 0.59240 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 0.006238 0.029573 0.211 0.83293 year.min:count.goodother 0.031302 0.015159 2.065 0.03896 * year.min:count.goodportugal 0.028076 0.018218 1.541 0.12332 year.min:count.goodspain -0.003248 0.012637 -0.257 0.79718 year.min:count.gooduk 0.015569 0.009287 1.676 0.09371 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.4006303) Null deviance: 4002.4 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 3783.3 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Supplementary Analyses-------" [1] "------Figure 2a, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -3.0587 -2.0795 -1.6617 -0.6851 24.5581 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.249e+04 2.648e+03 4.718 2.40e-06 *** year.min -1.920e+01 4.070e+00 -4.716 2.42e-06 *** I(year.min^2) 9.829e-03 2.085e-03 4.714 2.45e-06 *** I(year.min^3) -1.677e-06 3.560e-07 -4.711 2.48e-06 *** count.goodaustralia 1.200e+02 1.899e+04 0.006 0.994959 count.goodcanada 1.360e+04 8.126e+03 1.673 0.094323 . count.goodfrance 5.597e+03 5.776e+04 0.097 0.922810 count.goodgermany -4.129e+05 2.857e+05 -1.445 0.148358 count.goodnetherlands 2.227e+04 5.794e+03 3.844 0.000122 *** count.goodnew-zealand -1.305e+04 2.158e+04 -0.605 0.545262 count.goodother -1.683e+04 1.030e+04 -1.634 0.102366 count.goodportugal 3.146e+04 8.762e+04 0.359 0.719538 count.goodspain 2.012e+04 2.793e+04 0.720 0.471297 count.gooduk -6.025e+03 3.623e+03 -1.663 0.096323 . year.min:count.goodaustralia -2.869e-01 2.900e+01 -0.010 0.992107 year.min:count.goodcanada -2.093e+01 1.246e+01 -1.680 0.093040 . year.min:count.goodfrance -8.989e+00 8.810e+01 -0.102 0.918737 year.min:count.goodgermany 6.254e+02 4.334e+02 1.443 0.149023 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -3.415e+01 8.885e+00 -3.844 0.000121 *** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 1.996e+01 3.306e+01 0.604 0.546102 year.min:count.goodother 2.587e+01 1.582e+01 1.636 0.101849 year.min:count.goodportugal -4.850e+01 1.333e+02 -0.364 0.716054 year.min:count.goodspain -3.130e+01 4.268e+01 -0.733 0.463283 year.min:count.gooduk 9.324e+00 5.568e+00 1.675 0.094047 . I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia 1.981e-04 1.476e-02 0.013 0.989294 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada 1.074e-02 6.368e-03 1.686 0.091785 . I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance 4.799e-03 4.479e-02 0.107 0.914677 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -3.158e-01 2.192e-01 -1.441 0.149693 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.746e-02 4.541e-03 3.845 0.000121 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand -1.017e-02 1.688e-02 -0.602 0.546906 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -1.326e-02 8.090e-03 -1.639 0.101318 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal 2.491e-02 6.764e-02 0.368 0.712645 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain 1.623e-02 2.174e-02 0.747 0.455324 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk -4.810e-03 2.852e-03 -1.686 0.091763 . I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia -4.232e-08 2.505e-06 -0.017 0.986519 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada -1.836e-06 1.085e-06 -1.693 0.090556 . I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance -8.520e-07 7.591e-06 -0.112 0.910630 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 5.314e-05 3.695e-05 1.438 0.150370 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -2.974e-06 7.735e-07 -3.845 0.000121 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand 1.728e-06 2.873e-06 0.601 0.547678 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 2.264e-06 1.379e-06 1.641 0.100772 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal -4.264e-06 1.144e-05 -0.373 0.709311 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain -2.805e-06 3.692e-06 -0.760 0.447419 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk 8.271e-07 4.870e-07 1.698 0.089476 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 4.028158) Null deviance: 100629 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 91693 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 2a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -2.6243 -2.2120 -1.7190 -0.8348 25.0426 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.714104 3.944304 0.942 0.346407 year.min -0.001545 0.001988 -0.777 0.437133 count.goodaustralia -9.299781 10.209812 -0.911 0.362393 count.goodcanada -2.352734 9.609170 -0.245 0.806585 count.goodfrance 5.189323 19.325624 0.269 0.788306 count.goodgermany -17.056026 11.956645 -1.426 0.153767 count.goodnetherlands -14.802563 4.957558 -2.986 0.002837 ** count.goodnew-zealand -12.452263 21.217264 -0.587 0.557292 count.goodother -44.812692 9.612243 -4.662 3.18e-06 *** count.goodportugal -15.243053 12.215494 -1.248 0.212125 count.goodspain 34.171917 10.345423 3.303 0.000961 *** count.gooduk -20.094749 5.606741 -3.584 0.000340 *** year.min:count.goodaustralia 0.004669 0.005145 0.907 0.364185 year.min:count.goodcanada 0.001149 0.004843 0.237 0.812419 year.min:count.goodfrance -0.002648 0.009737 -0.272 0.785655 year.min:count.goodgermany 0.008618 0.006024 1.431 0.152611 year.min:count.goodnetherlands 0.007480 0.002498 2.994 0.002758 ** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 0.006239 0.010693 0.584 0.559571 year.min:count.goodother 0.022567 0.004842 4.661 3.20e-06 *** year.min:count.goodportugal 0.007664 0.006154 1.245 0.213041 year.min:count.goodspain -0.017352 0.005215 -3.327 0.000881 *** year.min:count.gooduk 0.010146 0.002826 3.591 0.000332 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 4.553729) Null deviance: 40840 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 37804 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 2b, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -10.050 -0.740 -0.195 0.293 53.826 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -1.137e+04 2.579e+03 -4.407 1.05e-05 *** year.min 1.762e+01 3.965e+00 4.445 8.82e-06 *** I(year.min^2) -9.111e-03 2.031e-03 -4.486 7.31e-06 *** I(year.min^3) 1.570e-06 3.468e-07 4.528 5.99e-06 *** count.goodaustralia 6.988e+03 1.765e+04 0.396 0.69215 count.goodcanada 8.060e+03 7.825e+03 1.030 0.30300 count.goodfrance 2.514e+04 5.096e+04 0.493 0.62179 count.goodgermany 1.270e+04 1.041e+05 0.122 0.90285 count.goodnetherlands 1.441e+04 5.639e+03 2.555 0.01063 * count.goodnew-zealand -1.362e+02 1.815e+04 -0.008 0.99401 count.goodother -9.128e+03 9.800e+03 -0.931 0.35161 count.goodportugal 4.771e+04 6.708e+04 0.711 0.47692 count.goodspain 2.872e+04 2.292e+04 1.253 0.21018 count.gooduk -7.323e+03 3.512e+03 -2.085 0.03707 * year.min:count.goodaustralia -1.087e+01 2.696e+01 -0.403 0.68690 year.min:count.goodcanada -1.240e+01 1.200e+01 -1.034 0.30132 year.min:count.goodfrance -3.861e+01 7.776e+01 -0.497 0.61954 year.min:count.goodgermany -1.971e+01 1.581e+02 -0.125 0.90081 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -2.222e+01 8.647e+00 -2.570 0.01018 * year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 1.174e-01 2.783e+01 0.004 0.99663 year.min:count.goodother 1.403e+01 1.505e+01 0.932 0.35115 year.min:count.goodportugal -7.322e+01 1.022e+02 -0.716 0.47388 year.min:count.goodspain -4.429e+01 3.506e+01 -1.263 0.20650 year.min:count.gooduk 1.133e+01 5.398e+00 2.099 0.03581 * I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia 5.632e-03 1.373e-02 0.410 0.68164 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada 6.361e-03 6.133e-03 1.037 0.29962 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance 1.976e-02 3.955e-02 0.500 0.61730 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany 1.019e-02 8.008e-02 0.127 0.89876 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.142e-02 4.419e-03 2.585 0.00975 ** I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand -1.311e-05 1.422e-02 -0.001 0.99926 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -7.186e-03 7.700e-03 -0.933 0.35070 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal 3.745e-02 5.193e-02 0.721 0.47086 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain 2.276e-02 1.787e-02 1.273 0.20290 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk -5.845e-03 2.766e-03 -2.113 0.03459 * I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia -9.726e-07 2.330e-06 -0.417 0.67638 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada -1.088e-06 1.045e-06 -1.041 0.29790 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance -3.372e-06 6.706e-06 -0.503 0.61506 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany -1.755e-06 1.352e-05 -0.130 0.89670 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -1.957e-06 7.527e-07 -2.600 0.00934 ** I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -5.787e-09 2.423e-06 -0.002 0.99809 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 1.227e-06 1.313e-06 0.934 0.35025 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal -6.384e-06 8.794e-06 -0.726 0.46785 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain -3.898e-06 3.037e-06 -1.283 0.19936 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk 1.005e-06 4.723e-07 2.127 0.03339 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 2.187524) Null deviance: 64267 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 46785 on 21387 degrees of freedom AIC: 11632 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 2b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -9.926 -0.801 -0.240 0.232 53.948 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -41.875604 4.622926 -9.058 < 2e-16 *** year.min 0.021452 0.002330 9.208 < 2e-16 *** count.goodaustralia 18.647350 11.795142 1.581 0.11393 count.goodcanada 24.760744 10.930415 2.265 0.02352 * count.goodfrance 40.485373 21.941475 1.845 0.06505 . count.goodgermany 7.697496 14.284394 0.539 0.58999 count.goodnetherlands 17.241074 5.854905 2.945 0.00324 ** count.goodnew-zealand 13.664369 24.005360 0.569 0.56922 count.goodother 5.479908 11.095706 0.494 0.62141 count.goodportugal 30.993890 14.094442 2.199 0.02791 * count.goodspain 29.052918 10.838193 2.681 0.00736 ** count.gooduk 3.077808 6.636084 0.464 0.64280 year.min:count.goodaustralia -0.009445 0.005944 -1.589 0.11209 year.min:count.goodcanada -0.012513 0.005508 -2.272 0.02314 * year.min:count.goodfrance -0.020394 0.011055 -1.845 0.06510 . year.min:count.goodgermany -0.003890 0.007197 -0.541 0.58886 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -0.008657 0.002950 -2.934 0.00335 ** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -0.006923 0.012098 -0.572 0.56716 year.min:count.goodother -0.002748 0.005590 -0.492 0.62293 year.min:count.goodportugal -0.015652 0.007101 -2.204 0.02754 * year.min:count.goodspain -0.014630 0.005463 -2.678 0.00742 ** year.min:count.gooduk -0.001529 0.003344 -0.457 0.64749 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 3.26901) Null deviance: 27189 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 25645 on 7845 degrees of freedom AIC: 6754.8 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------multivariable analysis - fractional productivity, adjusting for co-authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * (disc + av.coaut), family = gaussian) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.72683 -0.33566 0.03668 0.35531 2.23788 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.712e+04 4.431e+03 8.377 < 2e-16 *** year.min -5.714e+01 6.804e+00 -8.398 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^2) 2.933e-02 3.483e-03 8.420 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^3) -5.016e-06 5.941e-07 -8.443 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -1.239e+04 1.933e+04 -0.641 0.521696 discearth and space -1.695e+04 1.754e+04 -0.967 0.333795 discphysics -2.755e+04 1.328e+04 -2.074 0.038103 * discchemistry -3.415e+04 9.145e+03 -3.734 0.000189 *** discbiology 5.148e+03 1.185e+04 0.434 0.664141 discbiomedical research 7.442e+02 8.349e+03 0.089 0.928976 discpsychology -2.781e+04 2.265e+04 -1.228 0.219563 discsocial sciences -3.727e+04 1.397e+04 -2.668 0.007646 ** discarts&humanities -1.201e+04 6.794e+04 -0.177 0.859718 discother -2.756e+04 1.115e+04 -2.471 0.013489 * av.coaut -3.357e+03 9.927e+02 -3.382 0.000722 *** year.min:discmathematics 1.915e+01 2.975e+01 0.644 0.519748 year.min:discearth and space 2.599e+01 2.692e+01 0.965 0.334446 year.min:discphysics 4.261e+01 2.039e+01 2.090 0.036674 * year.min:discchemistry 5.274e+01 1.407e+01 3.749 0.000178 *** year.min:discbiology -7.903e+00 1.821e+01 -0.434 0.664227 year.min:discbiomedical research -1.072e+00 1.284e+01 -0.084 0.933417 year.min:discpsychology 4.278e+01 3.481e+01 1.229 0.219003 year.min:discsocial sciences 5.725e+01 2.149e+01 2.664 0.007727 ** year.min:discarts&humanities 1.782e+01 1.037e+02 0.172 0.863511 year.min:discother 4.262e+01 1.714e+01 2.487 0.012894 * year.min:av.coaut 5.071e+00 1.512e+00 3.353 0.000800 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -9.868e-03 1.526e-02 -0.647 0.517782 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -1.328e-02 1.378e-02 -0.964 0.335062 I(year.min^2):discphysics -2.197e-02 1.044e-02 -2.105 0.035292 * I(year.min^2):discchemistry -2.715e-02 7.211e-03 -3.764 0.000167 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology 4.044e-03 9.320e-03 0.434 0.664360 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 5.142e-04 6.577e-03 0.078 0.937691 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -2.193e-02 1.782e-02 -1.231 0.218454 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -2.931e-02 1.102e-02 -2.660 0.007810 ** I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -8.812e-03 5.273e-02 -0.167 0.867284 I(year.min^2):discother -2.197e-02 8.776e-03 -2.503 0.012317 * I(year.min^2):av.coaut -2.554e-03 7.678e-04 -3.326 0.000884 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 1.695e-06 2.608e-06 0.650 0.515795 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 2.262e-06 2.349e-06 0.963 0.335642 I(year.min^3):discphysics 3.774e-06 1.780e-06 2.121 0.033955 * I(year.min^3):discchemistry 4.657e-06 1.232e-06 3.779 0.000158 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology -6.896e-07 1.590e-06 -0.434 0.664538 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -8.200e-08 1.123e-06 -0.073 0.941809 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 3.748e-06 3.042e-06 1.232 0.217914 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 5.001e-06 1.883e-06 2.657 0.007897 ** I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 1.451e-06 8.940e-06 0.162 0.871035 I(year.min^3):discother 3.774e-06 1.498e-06 2.519 0.011760 * I(year.min^3):av.coaut 4.287e-07 1.300e-07 3.299 0.000973 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.2400985) Null deviance: 5558.3 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 5134.0 on 21383 degrees of freedom AIC: 30293 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers adjusting for co-authors - 1980-1998-----" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ year.min * (disc + av.coaut), family = gaussian) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.68947 -0.35356 0.03319 0.36160 1.87341 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 4.171e-01 5.898e+00 0.071 0.94362 year.min 1.433e-04 2.972e-03 0.048 0.96154 discmathematics -2.775e+01 3.762e+01 -0.737 0.46085 discearth and space -1.017e+01 1.922e+01 -0.529 0.59697 discphysics -5.370e+01 1.918e+01 -2.800 0.00513 ** discchemistry -3.173e+01 1.711e+01 -1.854 0.06372 . discbiology 1.363e+00 1.573e+01 0.087 0.93093 discbiomedical research 2.438e+01 1.305e+01 1.869 0.06169 . discpsychology -3.360e+01 3.490e+01 -0.963 0.33576 discsocial sciences 9.988e+00 3.120e+01 0.320 0.74886 discarts&humanities 1.853e+01 3.146e+01 0.589 0.55590 discother -3.700e+01 1.579e+01 -2.344 0.01911 * av.coaut -1.530e+00 1.646e-01 -9.295 < 2e-16 *** year.min:discmathematics 1.411e-02 1.896e-02 0.744 0.45696 year.min:discearth and space 5.172e-03 9.688e-03 0.534 0.59349 year.min:discphysics 2.719e-02 9.666e-03 2.813 0.00493 ** year.min:discchemistry 1.603e-02 8.623e-03 1.859 0.06304 . year.min:discbiology -6.651e-04 7.926e-03 -0.084 0.93313 year.min:discbiomedical research -1.226e-02 6.576e-03 -1.864 0.06236 . year.min:discpsychology 1.703e-02 1.759e-02 0.968 0.33298 year.min:discsocial sciences -4.937e-03 1.572e-02 -0.314 0.75351 year.min:discarts&humanities -9.173e-03 1.586e-02 -0.578 0.56304 year.min:discother 1.870e-02 7.954e-03 2.351 0.01876 * year.min:av.coaut 7.690e-04 8.284e-05 9.282 < 2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.2572001) Null deviance: 2140.5 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 2017.2 on 7843 degrees of freedom AIC: 11669 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers as first author, adjusting for co-authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * (disc + av.coaut), family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.5106 -0.3364 0.0370 0.3170 2.0021 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.004e+04 4.488e+03 4.465 8.04e-06 *** year.min -3.102e+01 6.890e+00 -4.503 6.74e-06 *** I(year.min^2) 1.601e-02 3.526e-03 4.541 5.64e-06 *** I(year.min^3) -2.754e-06 6.014e-07 -4.579 4.69e-06 *** discmathematics -4.821e+03 1.736e+04 -0.278 0.781283 discearth and space -3.520e+03 1.711e+04 -0.206 0.836989 discphysics -1.820e+04 1.188e+04 -1.532 0.125481 discchemistry -3.254e+04 8.869e+03 -3.669 0.000244 *** discbiology 1.302e+04 1.131e+04 1.151 0.249725 discbiomedical research 1.254e+03 7.699e+03 0.163 0.870660 discpsychology -1.336e+04 2.070e+04 -0.645 0.518703 discsocial sciences -2.113e+04 1.260e+04 -1.677 0.093571 . discarts&humanities 2.671e+03 6.279e+04 0.043 0.966069 discother -1.450e+04 1.098e+04 -1.321 0.186352 av.coaut 3.937e+03 1.339e+03 2.939 0.003295 ** year.min:discmathematics 7.495e+00 2.673e+01 0.280 0.779159 year.min:discearth and space 5.314e+00 2.626e+01 0.202 0.839645 year.min:discphysics 2.820e+01 1.824e+01 1.546 0.122009 year.min:discchemistry 5.024e+01 1.365e+01 3.682 0.000232 *** year.min:discbiology -2.000e+01 1.738e+01 -1.151 0.249703 year.min:discbiomedical research -1.854e+00 1.184e+01 -0.157 0.875585 year.min:discpsychology 2.051e+01 3.180e+01 0.645 0.519048 year.min:discsocial sciences 3.248e+01 1.939e+01 1.675 0.093893 . year.min:discarts&humanities -4.426e+00 9.579e+01 -0.046 0.963152 year.min:discother 2.244e+01 1.687e+01 1.331 0.183333 year.min:av.coaut -6.043e+00 2.044e+00 -2.956 0.003116 ** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -3.883e-03 1.371e-02 -0.283 0.777039 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.674e-03 1.343e-02 -0.199 0.842246 I(year.min^2):discphysics -1.457e-02 9.335e-03 -1.561 0.118619 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -2.585e-02 6.998e-03 -3.694 0.000221 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology 1.024e-02 8.899e-03 1.151 0.249706 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 9.136e-04 6.071e-03 0.150 0.880378 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -1.049e-02 1.629e-02 -0.644 0.519412 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -1.664e-02 9.940e-03 -1.674 0.094234 . I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities 2.427e-03 4.871e-02 0.050 0.960268 I(year.min^2):discother -1.157e-02 8.638e-03 -1.340 0.180339 I(year.min^2):av.coaut 3.091e-03 1.040e-03 2.973 0.002953 ** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 6.704e-07 2.344e-06 0.286 0.774921 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 4.485e-07 2.291e-06 0.196 0.844789 I(year.min^3):discphysics 2.508e-06 1.593e-06 1.575 0.115306 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 4.433e-06 1.196e-06 3.706 0.000211 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology -1.748e-06 1.519e-06 -1.151 0.249733 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -1.500e-07 1.037e-06 -0.145 0.885044 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 1.790e-06 2.780e-06 0.644 0.519792 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 2.840e-06 1.699e-06 1.672 0.094590 . I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities -4.409e-07 8.257e-06 -0.053 0.957420 I(year.min^3):discother 1.989e-06 1.475e-06 1.349 0.177375 I(year.min^3):av.coaut -5.269e-07 1.763e-07 -2.989 0.002804 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2170393) Null deviance: 6009.4 on 21430 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 5780.4 on 21383 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers as first author, co-authors - 1980-1998-----" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ year.min * (disc + av.coaut), family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.51160 -0.34385 0.04304 0.33442 1.37984 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -4.012e+00 6.223e+00 -0.645 0.5192 year.min 1.956e-03 3.136e-03 0.624 0.5327 discmathematics 3.033e+00 3.621e+01 0.084 0.9333 discearth and space 1.415e+01 1.922e+01 0.736 0.4615 discphysics -3.308e+01 1.840e+01 -1.798 0.0723 . discchemistry -2.217e+01 1.791e+01 -1.238 0.2157 discbiology 6.887e+00 1.631e+01 0.422 0.6729 discbiomedical research 1.810e+01 1.334e+01 1.358 0.1746 discpsychology -3.706e+01 3.397e+01 -1.091 0.2753 discsocial sciences 3.497e+01 3.030e+01 1.154 0.2486 discarts&humanities 1.744e+01 2.901e+01 0.601 0.5478 discother -2.167e+01 1.634e+01 -1.326 0.1849 av.coaut -1.171e+00 2.811e-01 -4.165 3.14e-05 *** year.min:discmathematics -1.455e-03 1.825e-02 -0.080 0.9365 year.min:discearth and space -7.092e-03 9.687e-03 -0.732 0.4641 year.min:discphysics 1.676e-02 9.273e-03 1.807 0.0707 . year.min:discchemistry 1.116e-02 9.025e-03 1.237 0.2163 year.min:discbiology -3.473e-03 8.221e-03 -0.422 0.6727 year.min:discbiomedical research -9.104e-03 6.721e-03 -1.355 0.1756 year.min:discpsychology 1.874e-02 1.712e-02 1.095 0.2737 year.min:discsocial sciences -1.756e-02 1.527e-02 -1.150 0.2503 year.min:discarts&humanities -8.670e-03 1.463e-02 -0.593 0.5534 year.min:discother 1.092e-02 8.236e-03 1.326 0.1848 year.min:av.coaut 5.884e-04 1.414e-04 4.161 3.20e-05 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2393905) Null deviance: 2472.1 on 7866 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 2430.8 on 7843 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ [1] 51484 Robustness test, all analyses repeated with early-career time window extended to 8 years [1] "------Figure 1a------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -0.83441 -0.31526 -0.01248 0.26367 1.41180 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.758e+04 2.059e+03 8.536 < 2e-16 *** year.min -2.702e+01 3.154e+00 -8.568 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^2) 1.384e-02 1.610e-03 8.600 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^3) -2.363e-06 2.738e-07 -8.630 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics 4.697e+02 9.467e+03 0.050 0.960434 discearth and space -3.335e+04 8.877e+03 -3.757 0.000172 *** discphysics -6.583e+03 5.742e+03 -1.147 0.251574 discchemistry -1.723e+04 4.302e+03 -4.006 6.18e-05 *** discbiology -1.463e+04 5.737e+03 -2.550 0.010772 * discbiomedical research -4.204e+03 3.837e+03 -1.096 0.273273 discpsychology -4.165e+04 1.046e+04 -3.980 6.91e-05 *** discsocial sciences -2.164e+04 7.590e+03 -2.851 0.004358 ** discarts&humanities -3.676e+04 3.636e+04 -1.011 0.312035 discother -3.631e+04 6.341e+03 -5.725 1.04e-08 *** year.min:discmathematics -6.167e-01 1.453e+01 -0.042 0.966147 year.min:discearth and space 5.113e+01 1.358e+01 3.766 0.000166 *** year.min:discphysics 1.027e+01 8.788e+00 1.169 0.242553 year.min:discchemistry 2.657e+01 6.590e+00 4.032 5.54e-05 *** year.min:discbiology 2.245e+01 8.782e+00 2.556 0.010588 * year.min:discbiomedical research 6.452e+00 5.877e+00 1.098 0.272332 year.min:discpsychology 6.390e+01 1.602e+01 3.988 6.67e-05 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 3.326e+01 1.163e+01 2.859 0.004252 ** year.min:discarts&humanities 5.549e+01 5.527e+01 1.004 0.315397 year.min:discother 5.570e+01 9.700e+00 5.742 9.39e-09 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics 2.639e-04 7.432e-03 0.036 0.971674 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.612e-02 6.921e-03 -3.774 0.000161 *** I(year.min^2):discphysics -5.338e-03 4.483e-03 -1.191 0.233778 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.366e-02 3.365e-03 -4.058 4.96e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology -1.148e-02 4.481e-03 -2.562 0.010412 * I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -3.299e-03 3.000e-03 -1.100 0.271499 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -3.268e-02 8.178e-03 -3.996 6.45e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -1.704e-02 5.944e-03 -2.866 0.004153 ** I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -2.792e-02 2.801e-02 -0.997 0.318816 I(year.min^2):discother -2.848e-02 4.945e-03 -5.759 8.50e-09 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics -3.651e-08 1.267e-06 -0.029 0.977016 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 4.448e-06 1.176e-06 3.783 0.000155 *** I(year.min^3):discphysics 9.245e-07 7.623e-07 1.213 0.225242 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 2.339e-06 5.728e-07 4.083 4.45e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology 1.957e-06 7.620e-07 2.568 0.010242 * I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 5.622e-07 5.105e-07 1.101 0.270770 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 5.570e-06 1.391e-06 4.004 6.24e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 2.909e-06 1.012e-06 2.873 0.004063 ** I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 4.682e-06 4.730e-06 0.990 0.322295 I(year.min^3):discother 4.853e-06 8.403e-07 5.776 7.71e-09 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.1526761) Null deviance: 8383.4 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 8091.8 on 51440 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 1a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -0.8368 -0.3020 -0.0096 0.2589 1.3949 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.504e+00 1.293e+00 1.937 0.05281 . year.min -1.336e-03 6.501e-04 -2.055 0.03990 * discmathematics 2.015e+00 8.918e+00 0.226 0.82128 discearth and space -1.425e+01 4.531e+00 -3.144 0.00167 ** discphysics -7.893e+00 3.753e+00 -2.103 0.03549 * discchemistry -1.477e+01 3.216e+00 -4.592 4.41e-06 *** discbiology -8.171e+00 3.508e+00 -2.329 0.01986 * discbiomedical research 4.145e+00 2.632e+00 1.575 0.11530 discpsychology -1.458e+01 6.954e+00 -2.097 0.03604 * discsocial sciences 7.341e+00 6.941e+00 1.058 0.29022 discarts&humanities 1.291e+01 7.132e+00 1.810 0.07023 . discother -1.618e+01 3.609e+00 -4.483 7.38e-06 *** year.min:discmathematics -1.036e-03 4.484e-03 -0.231 0.81736 year.min:discearth and space 7.132e-03 2.277e-03 3.132 0.00174 ** year.min:discphysics 4.041e-03 1.887e-03 2.142 0.03221 * year.min:discchemistry 7.421e-03 1.616e-03 4.591 4.43e-06 *** year.min:discbiology 4.037e-03 1.763e-03 2.290 0.02205 * year.min:discbiomedical research -2.087e-03 1.323e-03 -1.577 0.11474 year.min:discpsychology 7.300e-03 3.494e-03 2.089 0.03668 * year.min:discsocial sciences -3.770e-03 3.489e-03 -1.081 0.27992 year.min:discarts&humanities -6.608e-03 3.588e-03 -1.842 0.06553 . year.min:discother 8.038e-03 1.814e-03 4.432 9.36e-06 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.1504661) Null deviance: 5083.8 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 4914.6 on 31645 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 1b------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -7.9446 -0.4813 -0.0701 0.2859 17.8618 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 6.485e+03 2.487e+03 2.607 0.009130 ** year.min -1.014e+01 3.798e+00 -2.669 0.007602 ** I(year.min^2) 5.271e-03 1.934e-03 2.726 0.006413 ** I(year.min^3) -9.112e-07 3.280e-07 -2.778 0.005479 ** discmathematics -8.029e+03 1.634e+04 -0.491 0.623142 discearth and space 1.650e+02 1.201e+04 0.014 0.989039 discphysics -2.436e+04 7.144e+03 -3.410 0.000651 *** discchemistry -1.231e+04 4.705e+03 -2.617 0.008871 ** discbiology -1.573e+04 8.251e+03 -1.907 0.056544 . discbiomedical research -1.711e+03 4.473e+03 -0.383 0.702002 discpsychology -4.130e+04 2.132e+04 -1.937 0.052714 . discsocial sciences 7.983e+04 1.854e+04 4.307 1.66e-05 *** discarts&humanities 2.293e+05 1.600e+05 1.433 0.151914 discother -6.590e+04 1.142e+04 -5.771 7.90e-09 *** year.min:discmathematics 1.284e+01 2.506e+01 0.513 0.608240 year.min:discearth and space 2.176e-02 1.833e+01 0.001 0.999053 year.min:discphysics 3.758e+01 1.090e+01 3.449 0.000563 *** year.min:discchemistry 1.907e+01 7.196e+00 2.650 0.008053 ** year.min:discbiology 2.438e+01 1.260e+01 1.935 0.053025 . year.min:discbiomedical research 2.785e+00 6.836e+00 0.407 0.683741 year.min:discpsychology 6.314e+01 3.251e+01 1.942 0.052102 . year.min:discsocial sciences -1.218e+02 2.839e+01 -4.292 1.78e-05 *** year.min:discarts&humanities -3.474e+02 2.433e+02 -1.428 0.153316 year.min:discother 1.008e+02 1.741e+01 5.794 6.93e-09 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -6.837e-03 1.281e-02 -0.534 0.593428 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -1.523e-04 9.322e-03 -0.016 0.986963 I(year.min^2):discphysics -1.932e-02 5.539e-03 -3.489 0.000486 *** I(year.min^2):discchemistry -9.838e-03 3.668e-03 -2.682 0.007324 ** I(year.min^2):discbiology -1.259e-02 6.416e-03 -1.963 0.049684 * I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -1.505e-03 3.482e-03 -0.432 0.665638 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -3.218e-02 1.652e-02 -1.948 0.051470 . I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences 6.195e-02 1.449e-02 4.275 1.91e-05 *** I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities 1.754e-01 1.232e-01 1.423 0.154764 I(year.min^2):discother -5.144e-02 8.845e-03 -5.816 6.08e-09 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 1.211e-06 2.182e-06 0.555 0.578754 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 5.009e-08 1.581e-06 0.032 0.974716 I(year.min^3):discphysics 3.313e-06 9.387e-07 3.529 0.000417 *** I(year.min^3):discchemistry 1.691e-06 6.233e-07 2.713 0.006675 ** I(year.min^3):discbiology 2.167e-06 1.089e-06 1.991 0.046518 * I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 2.701e-07 5.912e-07 0.457 0.647716 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 5.467e-06 2.799e-06 1.953 0.050820 . I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences -1.050e-05 2.465e-06 -4.259 2.06e-05 *** I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities -2.951e-05 2.081e-05 -1.418 0.156250 I(year.min^3):discother 8.744e-06 1.498e-06 5.837 5.34e-09 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.7262017) Null deviance: 70637 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 34625 on 51440 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 [1] "------Figure 1b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -7.8106 -0.4340 -0.0601 0.2644 17.9245 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -2.532e+01 9.685e-01 -26.146 < 2e-16 *** year.min 1.253e-02 4.868e-04 25.733 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -2.788e+01 1.105e+01 -2.523 0.011644 * discearth and space -2.357e+01 4.121e+00 -5.718 1.09e-08 *** discphysics -3.493e+01 2.560e+00 -13.645 < 2e-16 *** discchemistry -1.636e+00 2.605e+00 -0.628 0.530064 discbiology -2.480e+01 3.323e+00 -7.462 8.74e-14 *** discbiomedical research -6.192e+00 2.078e+00 -2.980 0.002888 ** discpsychology -2.726e+01 7.160e+00 -3.808 0.000140 *** discsocial sciences -3.490e+01 1.149e+01 -3.038 0.002385 ** discarts&humanities -1.034e+02 2.557e+01 -4.044 5.26e-05 *** discother -2.105e+01 3.875e+00 -5.432 5.61e-08 *** year.min:discmathematics 1.361e-02 5.554e-03 2.451 0.014267 * year.min:discearth and space 1.174e-02 2.070e-03 5.671 1.43e-08 *** year.min:discphysics 1.763e-02 1.286e-03 13.704 < 2e-16 *** year.min:discchemistry 7.707e-04 1.309e-03 0.589 0.556072 year.min:discbiology 1.231e-02 1.669e-03 7.374 1.70e-13 *** year.min:discbiomedical research 3.101e-03 1.044e-03 2.969 0.002991 ** year.min:discpsychology 1.347e-02 3.596e-03 3.747 0.000179 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 1.689e-02 5.773e-03 2.926 0.003440 ** year.min:discarts&humanities 5.050e-02 1.286e-02 3.928 8.57e-05 *** year.min:discother 1.034e-02 1.947e-03 5.311 1.10e-07 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.7194406) Null deviance: 32034 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 20218 on 31645 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 2a------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -11.7276 -1.0896 -0.6994 -0.0912 22.0710 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.716e+04 1.890e+03 14.371 < 2e-16 *** year.min -4.184e+01 2.894e+00 -14.459 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^2) 2.149e-02 1.477e-03 14.548 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^3) -3.678e-06 2.512e-07 -14.639 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -1.732e+04 8.838e+03 -1.960 0.05005 . discearth and space -4.251e+04 8.633e+03 -4.924 8.49e-07 *** discphysics -2.718e+03 5.149e+03 -0.528 0.59753 discchemistry -1.940e+04 3.875e+03 -5.005 5.60e-07 *** discbiology -1.623e+04 5.757e+03 -2.819 0.00482 ** discbiomedical research -7.177e+03 3.429e+03 -2.093 0.03635 * discpsychology -4.653e+04 1.026e+04 -4.536 5.75e-06 *** discsocial sciences -3.237e+04 7.044e+03 -4.595 4.34e-06 *** discarts&humanities 1.888e+04 4.123e+04 0.458 0.64694 discother -3.486e+04 6.466e+03 -5.392 7.01e-08 *** year.min:discmathematics 2.665e+01 1.357e+01 1.963 0.04964 * year.min:discearth and space 6.517e+01 1.321e+01 4.935 8.04e-07 *** year.min:discphysics 4.226e+00 7.879e+00 0.536 0.59171 year.min:discchemistry 2.991e+01 5.938e+00 5.037 4.75e-07 *** year.min:discbiology 2.491e+01 8.813e+00 2.826 0.00471 ** year.min:discbiomedical research 1.105e+01 5.253e+00 2.103 0.03550 * year.min:discpsychology 7.146e+01 1.571e+01 4.549 5.40e-06 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 4.976e+01 1.080e+01 4.607 4.10e-06 *** year.min:discarts&humanities -2.933e+01 6.266e+01 -0.468 0.63976 year.min:discother 5.356e+01 9.889e+00 5.416 6.13e-08 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -1.366e-02 6.949e-03 -1.967 0.04925 * I(year.min^2):discearth and space -3.330e-02 6.732e-03 -4.946 7.62e-07 *** I(year.min^2):discphysics -2.188e-03 4.019e-03 -0.544 0.58611 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.537e-02 3.033e-03 -5.068 4.02e-07 *** I(year.min^2):discbiology -1.274e-02 4.496e-03 -2.834 0.00460 ** I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -5.665e-03 2.683e-03 -2.112 0.03471 * I(year.min^2):discpsychology -3.658e-02 8.017e-03 -4.562 5.07e-06 *** I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -2.549e-02 5.521e-03 -4.618 3.89e-06 *** I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities 1.517e-02 3.174e-02 0.478 0.63268 I(year.min^2):discother -2.743e-02 5.041e-03 -5.440 5.35e-08 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 2.335e-06 1.185e-06 1.970 0.04886 * I(year.min^3):discearth and space 5.669e-06 1.144e-06 4.956 7.23e-07 *** I(year.min^3):discphysics 3.774e-07 6.832e-07 0.552 0.58073 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 2.633e-06 5.163e-07 5.100 3.41e-07 *** I(year.min^3):discbiology 2.173e-06 7.647e-07 2.842 0.00449 ** I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 9.681e-07 4.566e-07 2.120 0.03398 * I(year.min^3):discpsychology 6.240e-06 1.364e-06 4.576 4.76e-06 *** I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 4.353e-06 9.405e-07 4.628 3.69e-06 *** I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities -2.614e-06 5.359e-06 -0.488 0.62571 I(year.min^3):discother 4.681e-06 8.566e-07 5.464 4.67e-08 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 1.521324) Null deviance: 88658 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 78257 on 51440 degrees of freedom AIC: 69191 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 2a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -11.7481 -1.0818 -0.6961 -0.0797 22.4016 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.714e+01 1.160e+00 23.402 < 2e-16 *** year.min -1.337e-02 5.830e-04 -22.933 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -1.273e+01 8.890e+00 -1.432 0.152134 discearth and space -1.557e+01 4.431e+00 -3.514 0.000442 *** discphysics 6.995e+00 3.263e+00 2.144 0.032045 * discchemistry -1.504e+01 2.982e+00 -5.045 4.57e-07 *** discbiology -9.670e+00 3.453e+00 -2.800 0.005111 ** discbiomedical research 2.940e-01 2.460e+00 0.120 0.904869 discpsychology -2.579e+01 6.745e+00 -3.824 0.000132 *** discsocial sciences -6.987e+00 7.266e+00 -0.962 0.336292 discarts&humanities 1.330e+01 7.129e+00 1.866 0.062023 . discother -2.362e+01 3.705e+00 -6.376 1.84e-10 *** year.min:discmathematics 6.493e-03 4.470e-03 1.452 0.146373 year.min:discearth and space 7.815e-03 2.226e-03 3.511 0.000447 *** year.min:discphysics -3.519e-03 1.640e-03 -2.145 0.031923 * year.min:discchemistry 7.578e-03 1.499e-03 5.056 4.30e-07 *** year.min:discbiology 4.836e-03 1.736e-03 2.786 0.005335 ** year.min:discbiomedical research -1.859e-04 1.236e-03 -0.150 0.880475 year.min:discpsychology 1.303e-02 3.389e-03 3.845 0.000121 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 3.631e-03 3.653e-03 0.994 0.320308 year.min:discarts&humanities -6.483e-03 3.587e-03 -1.807 0.070778 . year.min:discother 1.188e-02 1.862e-03 6.381 1.79e-10 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 1.555093) Null deviance: 52245 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 49211 on 31645 degrees of freedom AIC: 42979 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 2b------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.30352 -0.38204 0.01624 0.31271 1.59629 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 7.108e+03 2.703e+03 2.630 0.00855 ** year.min -1.094e+01 4.142e+00 -2.642 0.00824 ** I(year.min^2) 5.616e-03 2.115e-03 2.655 0.00792 ** I(year.min^3) -9.608e-07 3.599e-07 -2.669 0.00761 ** discmathematics 1.907e+04 1.167e+04 1.635 0.10212 discearth and space -3.276e+04 1.133e+04 -2.892 0.00383 ** discphysics 6.018e+03 7.566e+03 0.795 0.42639 discchemistry -1.637e+04 5.970e+03 -2.742 0.00612 ** discbiology -1.072e+03 7.267e+03 -0.148 0.88268 discbiomedical research 6.449e+03 5.076e+03 1.270 0.20397 discpsychology -2.457e+04 1.288e+04 -1.907 0.05651 . discsocial sciences -7.781e+03 9.006e+03 -0.864 0.38762 discarts&humanities -1.950e+04 3.951e+04 -0.494 0.62159 discother -8.407e+03 7.742e+03 -1.086 0.27751 year.min:discmathematics -2.932e+01 1.791e+01 -1.637 0.10163 year.min:discearth and space 5.014e+01 1.733e+01 2.894 0.00381 ** year.min:discphysics -9.106e+00 1.159e+01 -0.786 0.43190 year.min:discchemistry 2.526e+01 9.149e+00 2.761 0.00577 ** year.min:discbiology 1.574e+00 1.113e+01 0.141 0.88752 year.min:discbiomedical research -9.956e+00 7.779e+00 -1.280 0.20056 year.min:discpsychology 3.760e+01 1.974e+01 1.905 0.05677 . year.min:discsocial sciences 1.190e+01 1.381e+01 0.862 0.38886 year.min:discarts&humanities 2.925e+01 6.007e+01 0.487 0.62634 year.min:discother 1.286e+01 1.185e+01 1.086 0.27764 I(year.min^2):discmathematics 1.502e-02 9.163e-03 1.639 0.10112 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.558e-02 8.836e-03 -2.895 0.00380 ** I(year.min^2):discphysics 4.592e-03 5.914e-03 0.776 0.43751 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.299e-02 4.674e-03 -2.780 0.00544 ** I(year.min^2):discbiology -7.684e-04 5.681e-03 -0.135 0.89241 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 5.123e-03 3.973e-03 1.290 0.19717 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -1.918e-02 1.008e-02 -1.903 0.05704 . I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -6.063e-03 7.055e-03 -0.859 0.39017 I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -1.462e-02 3.044e-02 -0.480 0.63110 I(year.min^2):discother -6.561e-03 6.045e-03 -1.085 0.27776 I(year.min^3):discmathematics -2.566e-06 1.563e-06 -1.642 0.10061 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 4.348e-06 1.502e-06 2.896 0.00378 ** I(year.min^3):discphysics -7.714e-07 1.006e-06 -0.767 0.44321 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 2.227e-06 7.957e-07 2.799 0.00513 ** I(year.min^3):discbiology 1.247e-07 9.665e-07 0.129 0.89734 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -8.787e-07 6.762e-07 -1.299 0.19382 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 3.259e-06 1.715e-06 1.901 0.05733 . I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 1.030e-06 1.202e-06 0.857 0.39153 I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 2.435e-06 5.143e-06 0.473 0.63586 I(year.min^3):discother 1.115e-06 1.028e-06 1.085 0.27788 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2194158) Null deviance: 15191 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 14846 on 51440 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 2b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.27155 -0.39933 0.02801 0.32643 1.60515 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.157e+00 1.951e+00 1.618 0.1056 year.min -1.858e-03 9.807e-04 -1.894 0.0582 . discmathematics 2.299e+01 1.212e+01 1.898 0.0577 . discearth and space -6.053e+00 6.560e+00 -0.923 0.3562 discphysics 3.669e+00 5.621e+00 0.653 0.5140 discchemistry -2.056e+01 5.021e+00 -4.094 4.25e-05 *** discbiology 5.245e+00 5.077e+00 1.033 0.3017 discbiomedical research 6.692e+00 3.974e+00 1.684 0.0922 . discpsychology -6.701e-01 9.694e+00 -0.069 0.9449 discsocial sciences 1.455e+01 8.808e+00 1.652 0.0986 . discarts&humanities 1.039e+01 8.485e+00 1.225 0.2206 discother 2.992e+00 5.068e+00 0.590 0.5549 year.min:discmathematics -1.148e-02 6.093e-03 -1.883 0.0597 . year.min:discearth and space 3.056e-03 3.297e-03 0.927 0.3539 year.min:discphysics -1.762e-03 2.826e-03 -0.623 0.5330 year.min:discchemistry 1.029e-02 2.524e-03 4.078 4.55e-05 *** year.min:discbiology -2.659e-03 2.552e-03 -1.042 0.2974 year.min:discbiomedical research -3.368e-03 1.998e-03 -1.686 0.0918 . year.min:discpsychology 3.875e-04 4.871e-03 0.080 0.9366 year.min:discsocial sciences -7.213e-03 4.428e-03 -1.629 0.1034 year.min:discarts&humanities -5.093e-03 4.269e-03 -1.193 0.2328 year.min:discother -1.517e-03 2.547e-03 -0.596 0.5514 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2328404) Null deviance: 9932.0 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 9819.6 on 31645 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Same as Figure 2b, for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -0.9901 -0.7148 -0.1126 0.3164 2.8459 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 4.287e+04 5.679e+03 7.550 4.43e-14 *** year.min -6.664e+01 8.695e+00 -7.664 1.84e-14 *** I(year.min^2) 3.452e-02 4.438e-03 7.778 7.50e-15 *** I(year.min^3) -5.958e-06 7.549e-07 -7.893 3.02e-15 *** discmathematics -2.851e+04 2.950e+04 -0.967 0.333718 discearth and space -1.719e+04 2.169e+04 -0.792 0.428099 discphysics -3.392e+04 1.598e+04 -2.122 0.033819 * discchemistry -2.156e+04 1.015e+04 -2.125 0.033609 * discbiology -1.906e+04 1.511e+04 -1.262 0.207063 discbiomedical research -1.103e+04 1.036e+04 -1.065 0.286863 discpsychology -5.247e+04 2.985e+04 -1.758 0.078797 . discsocial sciences 1.167e+04 3.115e+04 0.375 0.707873 discarts&humanities 2.198e+05 2.445e+05 0.899 0.368792 discother -7.452e+04 2.019e+04 -3.691 0.000223 *** year.min:discmathematics 4.448e+01 4.519e+01 0.984 0.325002 year.min:discearth and space 2.687e+01 3.317e+01 0.810 0.417927 year.min:discphysics 5.231e+01 2.444e+01 2.140 0.032362 * year.min:discchemistry 3.361e+01 1.555e+01 2.162 0.030661 * year.min:discbiology 2.964e+01 2.312e+01 1.282 0.199915 year.min:discbiomedical research 1.691e+01 1.587e+01 1.065 0.286665 year.min:discpsychology 8.111e+01 4.565e+01 1.777 0.075631 . year.min:discsocial sciences -1.651e+01 4.770e+01 -0.346 0.729226 year.min:discarts&humanities -3.333e+02 3.720e+02 -0.896 0.370240 year.min:discother 1.146e+02 3.082e+01 3.719 0.000200 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics -2.313e-02 2.308e-02 -1.002 0.316254 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -1.400e-02 1.691e-02 -0.828 0.407765 I(year.min^2):discphysics -2.689e-02 1.246e-02 -2.158 0.030956 * I(year.min^2):discchemistry -1.746e-02 7.944e-03 -2.198 0.027965 * I(year.min^2):discbiology -1.536e-02 1.179e-02 -1.302 0.192857 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research -8.632e-03 8.102e-03 -1.065 0.286698 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -4.180e-02 2.327e-02 -1.796 0.072522 . I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences 7.719e-03 2.435e-02 0.317 0.751253 I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities 1.685e-01 1.886e-01 0.893 0.371763 I(year.min^2):discother -5.875e-02 1.568e-02 -3.747 0.000179 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics 4.009e-06 3.928e-06 1.021 0.307492 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 2.429e-06 2.872e-06 0.846 0.397619 I(year.min^3):discphysics 4.606e-06 2.118e-06 2.175 0.029599 * I(year.min^3):discchemistry 3.021e-06 1.353e-06 2.234 0.025498 * I(year.min^3):discbiology 2.652e-06 2.005e-06 1.323 0.185897 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research 1.468e-06 1.379e-06 1.065 0.286960 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 7.179e-06 3.954e-06 1.815 0.069472 . I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences -1.190e-06 4.143e-06 -0.287 0.773918 I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities -2.838e-05 3.188e-05 -0.890 0.373354 I(year.min^3):discother 1.004e-05 2.660e-06 3.775 0.000160 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.348033) Null deviance: 20745 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 19064 on 51440 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 [1] "------Same as Figure 2b - 1980-1998 - for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min) * disc, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -0.8848 -0.6820 -0.2635 0.3077 2.5276 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 7.095e+01 3.961e+00 17.915 < 2e-16 *** year.min -3.642e-02 1.992e-03 -18.287 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics -7.128e+01 2.141e+01 -3.329 0.000871 *** discearth and space -5.400e+01 1.121e+01 -4.817 1.47e-06 *** discphysics -2.640e+01 1.055e+01 -2.502 0.012364 * discchemistry -4.026e+01 8.901e+00 -4.524 6.10e-06 *** discbiology -4.180e+01 9.366e+00 -4.463 8.11e-06 *** discbiomedical research 1.285e+01 8.551e+00 1.503 0.132812 discpsychology -7.741e+01 1.658e+01 -4.669 3.03e-06 *** discsocial sciences -1.193e+02 2.092e+01 -5.701 1.20e-08 *** discarts&humanities -1.014e+02 4.894e+01 -2.072 0.038269 * discother -8.591e+01 9.212e+00 -9.327 < 2e-16 *** year.min:discmathematics 3.607e-02 1.077e-02 3.350 0.000808 *** year.min:discearth and space 2.736e-02 5.635e-03 4.854 1.21e-06 *** year.min:discphysics 1.345e-02 5.306e-03 2.534 0.011277 * year.min:discchemistry 2.036e-02 4.476e-03 4.550 5.39e-06 *** year.min:discbiology 2.111e-02 4.709e-03 4.482 7.41e-06 *** year.min:discbiomedical research -6.546e-03 4.300e-03 -1.522 0.127956 year.min:discpsychology 3.915e-02 8.330e-03 4.700 2.62e-06 *** year.min:discsocial sciences 5.990e-02 1.051e-02 5.697 1.23e-08 *** year.min:discarts&humanities 5.004e-02 2.462e-02 2.033 0.042092 * year.min:discother 4.331e-02 4.630e-03 9.356 < 2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.3683508) Null deviance: 12601 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 11986 on 31645 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 3a, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -12.8498 -1.0785 -0.6756 -0.0667 21.0806 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.493e+04 2.169e+03 11.491 < 2e-16 *** year.min -3.840e+01 3.324e+00 -11.552 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^2) 1.972e-02 1.697e-03 11.615 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^3) -3.374e-06 2.889e-07 -11.679 < 2e-16 *** count.goodaustralia -2.054e+04 1.391e+04 -1.477 0.13980 count.goodbelgium -2.267e+04 1.671e+04 -1.356 0.17503 count.goodcanada -1.798e+04 6.348e+03 -2.832 0.00463 ** count.gooddenmark 1.468e+04 1.989e+04 0.738 0.46055 count.goodfinland -1.923e+05 9.925e+04 -1.937 0.05272 . count.goodfrance -2.510e+04 2.153e+04 -1.166 0.24378 count.goodgermany -1.840e+05 3.344e+04 -5.502 3.77e-08 *** count.goodireland -4.632e+03 1.695e+04 -0.273 0.78467 count.gooditaly -1.749e+05 1.229e+05 -1.423 0.15463 count.goodnetherlands -3.494e+03 5.144e+03 -0.679 0.49705 count.goodnew-zealand 1.090e+03 1.707e+04 0.064 0.94908 count.goodother -6.807e+04 3.343e+04 -2.036 0.04174 * count.goodportugal -1.698e+04 2.427e+04 -0.699 0.48428 count.goodspain -4.759e+04 1.821e+04 -2.614 0.00896 ** count.goodsweden 2.354e+04 1.587e+04 1.483 0.13800 count.gooduk 1.054e+03 2.927e+03 0.360 0.71878 year.min:count.goodaustralia 3.141e+01 2.120e+01 1.482 0.13844 year.min:count.goodbelgium 3.490e+01 2.560e+01 1.364 0.17273 year.min:count.goodcanada 2.753e+01 9.708e+00 2.836 0.00457 ** year.min:count.gooddenmark -2.245e+01 3.047e+01 -0.737 0.46116 year.min:count.goodfinland 2.914e+02 1.506e+02 1.934 0.05306 . year.min:count.goodfrance 3.807e+01 3.282e+01 1.160 0.24609 year.min:count.goodgermany 2.800e+02 5.086e+01 5.504 3.73e-08 *** year.min:count.goodireland 7.299e+00 2.602e+01 0.280 0.77912 year.min:count.gooditaly 2.662e+02 1.862e+02 1.430 0.15283 year.min:count.goodnetherlands 5.418e+00 7.860e+00 0.689 0.49066 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -1.646e+00 2.607e+01 -0.063 0.94964 year.min:count.goodother 1.043e+02 5.114e+01 2.039 0.04147 * year.min:count.goodportugal 2.613e+01 3.704e+01 0.706 0.48043 year.min:count.goodspain 7.290e+01 2.776e+01 2.626 0.00865 ** year.min:count.goodsweden -3.649e+01 2.426e+01 -1.504 0.13261 year.min:count.gooduk -1.551e+00 4.486e+00 -0.346 0.72955 I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -1.601e-02 1.077e-02 -1.487 0.13710 I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -1.791e-02 1.307e-02 -1.371 0.17044 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada -1.405e-02 4.948e-03 -2.840 0.00451 ** I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark 1.145e-02 1.556e-02 0.736 0.46181 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland -1.472e-01 7.619e-02 -1.932 0.05340 . I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -1.925e-02 1.667e-02 -1.154 0.24841 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -1.420e-01 2.579e-02 -5.506 3.69e-08 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodireland -3.832e-03 1.332e-02 -0.288 0.77349 I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly -1.351e-01 9.405e-02 -1.436 0.15103 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands -2.799e-03 4.003e-03 -0.699 0.48436 I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand 8.276e-04 1.328e-02 0.062 0.95029 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -5.323e-02 2.607e-02 -2.042 0.04120 * I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -1.341e-02 1.884e-02 -0.712 0.47655 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -3.722e-02 1.411e-02 -2.637 0.00835 ** I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden 1.885e-02 1.236e-02 1.524 0.12740 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 7.594e-04 2.292e-03 0.331 0.74043 I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 2.719e-06 1.822e-06 1.492 0.13578 I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 3.063e-06 2.223e-06 1.378 0.16816 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada 2.391e-06 8.406e-07 2.844 0.00445 ** I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark -1.945e-06 2.647e-06 -0.735 0.46251 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland 2.478e-05 1.285e-05 1.929 0.05374 . I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 3.243e-06 2.824e-06 1.149 0.25075 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 2.400e-05 4.357e-06 5.507 3.66e-08 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodireland 6.704e-07 2.271e-06 0.295 0.76780 I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly 2.284e-05 1.584e-05 1.442 0.14924 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands 4.819e-07 6.794e-07 0.709 0.47818 I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -1.384e-07 2.253e-06 -0.061 0.95101 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 9.057e-06 4.430e-06 2.044 0.04093 * I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 2.293e-06 3.193e-06 0.718 0.47264 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 6.333e-06 2.390e-06 2.649 0.00807 ** I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden -3.245e-06 2.100e-06 -1.545 0.12236 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -1.237e-07 3.903e-07 -0.317 0.75139 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 1.511484) Null deviance: 88658 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 77714 on 51416 degrees of freedom AIC: 68881 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 3a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -12.8784 -1.0544 -0.6651 -0.0546 21.3060 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.921e+01 1.644e+00 17.772 < 2e-16 *** year.min -1.438e-02 8.262e-04 -17.403 < 2e-16 *** count.goodaustralia -1.607e+01 4.568e+00 -3.517 0.000437 *** count.goodbelgium -2.606e+01 8.820e+00 -2.954 0.003138 ** count.goodcanada -2.029e+01 3.856e+00 -5.263 1.43e-07 *** count.gooddenmark -2.878e+00 9.357e+00 -0.308 0.758396 count.goodfinland 2.465e+01 9.706e+00 2.540 0.011102 * count.goodfrance 6.929e-01 7.155e+00 0.097 0.922848 count.goodgermany -3.463e+00 5.487e+00 -0.631 0.527985 count.goodireland -4.384e+01 1.481e+01 -2.960 0.003082 ** count.gooditaly -4.384e+01 9.003e+00 -4.870 1.12e-06 *** count.goodnetherlands -1.334e+00 2.235e+00 -0.597 0.550427 count.goodnew-zealand 7.163e+00 9.194e+00 0.779 0.435956 count.goodother -2.593e+01 1.617e+01 -1.603 0.108981 count.goodportugal -2.021e+01 6.158e+00 -3.281 0.001035 ** count.goodspain -1.015e+01 3.695e+00 -2.746 0.006031 ** count.goodsweden 2.667e+01 7.554e+00 3.530 0.000415 *** count.gooduk -3.014e+00 2.434e+00 -1.238 0.215629 year.min:count.goodaustralia 8.073e-03 2.296e-03 3.517 0.000438 *** year.min:count.goodbelgium 1.306e-02 4.430e-03 2.948 0.003205 ** year.min:count.goodcanada 1.019e-02 1.938e-03 5.254 1.50e-07 *** year.min:count.gooddenmark 1.432e-03 4.700e-03 0.305 0.760556 year.min:count.goodfinland -1.236e-02 4.877e-03 -2.534 0.011290 * year.min:count.goodfrance -4.122e-04 3.596e-03 -0.115 0.908740 year.min:count.goodgermany 1.775e-03 2.755e-03 0.644 0.519550 year.min:count.goodireland 2.205e-02 7.442e-03 2.962 0.003055 ** year.min:count.gooditaly 2.193e-02 4.523e-03 4.847 1.26e-06 *** year.min:count.goodnetherlands 6.037e-04 1.123e-03 0.537 0.591001 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -3.623e-03 4.622e-03 -0.784 0.433109 year.min:count.goodother 1.301e-02 8.124e-03 1.602 0.109222 year.min:count.goodportugal 1.009e-02 3.093e-03 3.262 0.001106 ** year.min:count.goodspain 4.939e-03 1.858e-03 2.658 0.007867 ** year.min:count.goodsweden -1.342e-02 3.796e-03 -3.535 0.000408 *** year.min:count.gooduk 1.515e-03 1.223e-03 1.238 0.215606 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 1.524222) Null deviance: 52245 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 48216 on 31633 degrees of freedom AIC: 42356 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 3b, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.31708 -0.36484 0.02655 0.31034 1.49452 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.490e+04 3.076e+03 4.844 1.28e-06 *** year.min -2.296e+01 4.714e+00 -4.870 1.12e-06 *** I(year.min^2) 1.179e-02 2.408e-03 4.896 9.81e-07 *** I(year.min^3) -2.018e-06 4.101e-07 -4.922 8.58e-07 *** count.goodaustralia -3.517e+04 1.850e+04 -1.901 0.0573 . count.goodbelgium -6.863e+02 2.460e+04 -0.028 0.9777 count.goodcanada -1.148e+04 8.305e+03 -1.383 0.1668 count.gooddenmark -3.181e+03 2.829e+04 -0.112 0.9105 count.goodfinland -1.963e+05 1.421e+05 -1.381 0.1672 count.goodfrance 8.138e+03 2.381e+04 0.342 0.7325 count.goodgermany -4.069e+04 5.048e+04 -0.806 0.4202 count.goodireland 1.725e+04 2.304e+04 0.749 0.4539 count.gooditaly -2.223e+05 1.923e+05 -1.156 0.2478 count.goodnetherlands 2.122e+03 7.052e+03 0.301 0.7635 count.goodnew-zealand 1.482e+04 1.896e+04 0.781 0.4345 count.goodother -5.012e+04 4.659e+04 -1.076 0.2820 count.goodportugal -2.179e+04 3.016e+04 -0.722 0.4701 count.goodspain -2.631e+04 2.180e+04 -1.207 0.2276 count.goodsweden 2.264e+03 1.968e+04 0.115 0.9084 count.gooduk -5.340e+03 4.171e+03 -1.280 0.2005 year.min:count.goodaustralia 5.378e+01 2.820e+01 1.907 0.0565 . year.min:count.goodbelgium 1.401e+00 3.770e+01 0.037 0.9704 year.min:count.goodcanada 1.764e+01 1.271e+01 1.388 0.1651 year.min:count.gooddenmark 5.154e+00 4.334e+01 0.119 0.9053 year.min:count.goodfinland 2.979e+02 2.157e+02 1.381 0.1673 year.min:count.goodfrance -1.258e+01 3.640e+01 -0.346 0.7296 year.min:count.goodgermany 6.192e+01 7.687e+01 0.806 0.4205 year.min:count.goodireland -2.628e+01 3.538e+01 -0.743 0.4576 year.min:count.gooditaly 3.379e+02 2.916e+02 1.159 0.2465 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -3.087e+00 1.078e+01 -0.286 0.7746 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -2.264e+01 2.902e+01 -0.780 0.4353 year.min:count.goodother 7.688e+01 7.138e+01 1.077 0.2815 year.min:count.goodportugal 3.355e+01 4.604e+01 0.729 0.4662 year.min:count.goodspain 4.050e+01 3.334e+01 1.215 0.2244 year.min:count.goodsweden -3.411e+00 3.012e+01 -0.113 0.9098 year.min:count.gooduk 8.341e+00 6.395e+00 1.304 0.1922 I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -2.741e-02 1.432e-02 -1.913 0.0557 . I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -8.948e-04 1.926e-02 -0.046 0.9629 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada -9.033e-03 6.482e-03 -1.394 0.1634 I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark -2.775e-03 2.212e-02 -0.125 0.9002 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland -1.507e-01 1.092e-01 -1.381 0.1674 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance 6.480e-03 1.854e-02 0.349 0.7267 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -3.140e-02 3.901e-02 -0.805 0.4209 I(year.min^2):count.goodireland 1.334e-02 1.810e-02 0.737 0.4612 I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly -1.713e-01 1.474e-01 -1.162 0.2451 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.492e-03 5.492e-03 0.272 0.7858 I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand 1.153e-02 1.481e-02 0.779 0.4362 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -3.930e-02 3.645e-02 -1.078 0.2810 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -1.722e-02 2.342e-02 -0.735 0.4623 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -2.077e-02 1.699e-02 -1.223 0.2214 I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden 1.712e-03 1.537e-02 0.111 0.9113 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk -4.341e-03 3.268e-03 -1.328 0.1842 I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 4.655e-06 2.426e-06 1.919 0.0550 . I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 1.830e-07 3.280e-06 0.056 0.9555 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada 1.542e-06 1.102e-06 1.399 0.1618 I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark 4.967e-07 3.764e-06 0.132 0.8950 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland 2.541e-05 1.841e-05 1.380 0.1675 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance -1.112e-06 3.148e-06 -0.353 0.7239 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 5.307e-06 6.600e-06 0.804 0.4213 I(year.min^3):count.goodireland -2.256e-06 3.088e-06 -0.731 0.4650 I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly 2.893e-05 2.482e-05 1.166 0.2438 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -2.397e-07 9.326e-07 -0.257 0.7972 I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -1.957e-06 2.518e-06 -0.777 0.4371 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 6.694e-06 6.202e-06 1.079 0.2805 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 2.945e-06 3.972e-06 0.741 0.4584 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 3.551e-06 2.885e-06 1.231 0.2185 I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden -2.862e-07 2.613e-06 -0.110 0.9128 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk 7.526e-07 5.567e-07 1.352 0.1764 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.215412) Null deviance: 15191 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 14501 on 51416 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Figure 3b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.26464 -0.39036 0.04013 0.32573 1.49715 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.304e+01 2.597e+00 5.021 5.17e-07 *** year.min -6.775e-03 1.306e-03 -5.190 2.12e-07 *** count.goodaustralia -1.576e+01 6.785e+00 -2.323 0.02018 * count.goodbelgium -1.928e+01 1.321e+01 -1.460 0.14438 count.goodcanada -1.220e+01 5.796e+00 -2.104 0.03536 * count.gooddenmark -3.030e+01 1.524e+01 -1.988 0.04680 * count.goodfinland 8.489e+00 1.679e+01 0.505 0.61322 count.goodfrance 7.322e+00 1.122e+01 0.652 0.51418 count.goodgermany 9.904e+00 9.337e+00 1.061 0.28881 count.goodireland -2.713e+01 2.057e+01 -1.319 0.18731 count.gooditaly -4.077e+01 1.597e+01 -2.552 0.01071 * count.goodnetherlands -1.045e+01 3.575e+00 -2.923 0.00347 ** count.goodnew-zealand 5.159e+00 1.402e+01 0.368 0.71286 count.goodother 1.896e+00 2.414e+01 0.079 0.93742 count.goodportugal -1.438e+01 9.269e+00 -1.551 0.12088 count.goodspain -2.500e+00 6.002e+00 -0.417 0.67702 count.goodsweden 5.888e+00 1.186e+01 0.497 0.61943 count.gooduk -8.894e+00 3.841e+00 -2.316 0.02057 * year.min:count.goodaustralia 7.916e-03 3.410e-03 2.321 0.02030 * year.min:count.goodbelgium 9.692e-03 6.634e-03 1.461 0.14408 year.min:count.goodcanada 6.114e-03 2.914e-03 2.098 0.03589 * year.min:count.gooddenmark 1.524e-02 7.657e-03 1.990 0.04663 * year.min:count.goodfinland -4.296e-03 8.438e-03 -0.509 0.61067 year.min:count.goodfrance -3.749e-03 5.641e-03 -0.665 0.50625 year.min:count.goodgermany -4.915e-03 4.689e-03 -1.048 0.29463 year.min:count.goodireland 1.367e-02 1.034e-02 1.322 0.18603 year.min:count.gooditaly 2.028e-02 8.025e-03 2.527 0.01150 * year.min:count.goodnetherlands 5.187e-03 1.797e-03 2.886 0.00390 ** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -2.617e-03 7.046e-03 -0.371 0.71030 year.min:count.goodother -9.193e-04 1.213e-02 -0.076 0.93959 year.min:count.goodportugal 7.100e-03 4.655e-03 1.525 0.12724 year.min:count.goodspain 9.478e-04 3.018e-03 0.314 0.75345 year.min:count.goodsweden -2.916e-03 5.957e-03 -0.490 0.62448 year.min:count.gooduk 4.474e-03 1.931e-03 2.317 0.02051 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.2262936) Null deviance: 9932.0 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 9458.5 on 31633 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Same as Figure 3b for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.07246 -0.72394 -0.06445 0.33078 2.18497 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 7.317e+03 6.494e+03 1.127 0.259807 year.min -1.173e+01 9.946e+00 -1.180 0.238144 I(year.min^2) 6.258e-03 5.078e-03 1.232 0.217813 I(year.min^3) -1.110e-06 8.640e-07 -1.285 0.198722 count.goodaustralia -5.349e+03 3.815e+04 -0.140 0.888483 count.goodbelgium -8.728e+04 4.423e+04 -1.973 0.048450 * count.goodcanada 3.087e+03 1.794e+04 0.172 0.863413 count.gooddenmark 4.417e+04 5.959e+04 0.741 0.458532 count.goodfinland -1.387e+05 2.898e+05 -0.479 0.632196 count.goodfrance -9.373e+04 1.004e+05 -0.934 0.350517 count.goodgermany -2.063e+05 9.833e+04 -2.098 0.035882 * count.goodireland -8.276e+04 5.929e+04 -1.396 0.162799 count.gooditaly -2.008e+05 3.092e+05 -0.649 0.516076 count.goodnetherlands 5.055e+04 1.433e+04 3.527 0.000421 *** count.goodnew-zealand -6.361e+04 5.958e+04 -1.068 0.285693 count.goodother -1.432e+06 8.839e+05 -1.620 0.105265 count.goodportugal -1.338e+05 1.856e+05 -0.721 0.471012 count.goodspain -1.604e+05 1.399e+05 -1.146 0.251627 count.goodsweden -3.198e+05 2.189e+05 -1.461 0.144085 count.gooduk 1.211e+04 8.640e+03 1.401 0.161126 year.min:count.goodaustralia 7.862e+00 5.813e+01 0.135 0.892419 year.min:count.goodbelgium 1.345e+02 6.775e+01 1.984 0.047209 * year.min:count.goodcanada -4.783e+00 2.744e+01 -0.174 0.861613 year.min:count.gooddenmark -6.803e+01 9.126e+01 -0.745 0.456031 year.min:count.goodfinland 2.085e+02 4.400e+02 0.474 0.635518 year.min:count.goodfrance 1.418e+02 1.527e+02 0.929 0.352858 year.min:count.goodgermany 3.141e+02 1.496e+02 2.099 0.035795 * year.min:count.goodireland 1.267e+02 9.065e+01 1.397 0.162323 year.min:count.gooditaly 3.041e+02 4.688e+02 0.649 0.516549 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -7.779e+01 2.191e+01 -3.551 0.000384 *** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand 9.708e+01 9.085e+01 1.069 0.285237 year.min:count.goodother 2.167e+03 1.338e+03 1.619 0.105476 year.min:count.goodportugal 2.021e+02 2.813e+02 0.718 0.472538 year.min:count.goodspain 2.439e+02 2.122e+02 1.149 0.250435 year.min:count.goodsweden 4.825e+02 3.321e+02 1.453 0.146279 year.min:count.gooduk -1.842e+01 1.324e+01 -1.391 0.164201 I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -3.846e-03 2.952e-02 -0.130 0.896350 I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -6.902e-02 3.459e-02 -1.995 0.046013 * I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada 2.469e-03 1.398e-02 0.177 0.859864 I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark 3.492e-02 4.658e-02 0.750 0.453522 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland -1.045e-01 2.227e-01 -0.469 0.638857 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -7.153e-02 7.737e-02 -0.925 0.355228 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -1.593e-01 7.586e-02 -2.100 0.035713 * I(year.min^2):count.goodireland -6.462e-02 4.619e-02 -1.399 0.161856 I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly -1.535e-01 2.369e-01 -0.648 0.517025 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 3.990e-02 1.116e-02 3.575 0.000350 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand -4.939e-02 4.617e-02 -1.070 0.284770 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -1.093e+00 6.756e-01 -1.618 0.105690 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -1.017e-01 1.421e-01 -0.716 0.474043 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -1.235e-01 1.072e-01 -1.152 0.249260 I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden -2.426e-01 1.679e-01 -1.445 0.148498 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 9.340e-03 6.764e-03 1.381 0.167304 I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 6.263e-07 4.998e-06 0.125 0.900277 I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 1.181e-05 5.886e-06 2.006 0.044858 * I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada -4.245e-07 2.375e-06 -0.179 0.858165 I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark -5.973e-06 7.925e-06 -0.754 0.451005 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland 1.745e-05 3.756e-05 0.465 0.642213 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 1.202e-05 1.307e-05 0.920 0.357628 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 2.694e-05 1.282e-05 2.101 0.035634 * I(year.min^3):count.goodireland 1.099e-05 7.846e-06 1.400 0.161399 I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly 2.583e-05 3.991e-05 0.647 0.517504 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -6.821e-06 1.895e-06 -3.600 0.000319 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand 8.375e-06 7.822e-06 1.071 0.284291 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 1.838e-04 1.137e-04 1.617 0.105907 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 1.707e-05 2.393e-05 0.714 0.475526 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 2.086e-05 1.806e-05 1.155 0.248105 I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden 4.067e-05 2.831e-05 1.437 0.150743 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -1.579e-06 1.151e-06 -1.371 0.170432 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.3535685) Null deviance: 20745 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 20033 on 51416 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 8 [1] "------Same as Figure 3b - 1980-1998 - for last authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.last + 1) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -0.8857 -0.6956 -0.5283 0.3322 2.1934 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.079e+01 5.156e+00 5.972 2.37e-09 *** year.min -1.614e-02 2.592e-03 -6.229 4.75e-10 *** count.goodaustralia 2.556e+00 1.352e+01 0.189 0.8500 count.goodbelgium -4.867e+01 2.713e+01 -1.794 0.0728 . count.goodcanada -7.426e+00 1.134e+01 -0.655 0.5124 count.gooddenmark -2.187e+00 3.354e+01 -0.065 0.9480 count.goodfinland 6.105e+01 3.396e+01 1.798 0.0722 . count.goodfrance 2.296e+01 2.207e+01 1.040 0.2982 count.goodgermany -4.450e+00 1.768e+01 -0.252 0.8012 count.goodireland -2.574e+01 4.238e+01 -0.607 0.5436 count.gooditaly 1.888e+01 2.528e+01 0.747 0.4551 count.goodnetherlands 5.467e+01 7.389e+00 7.399 1.40e-13 *** count.goodnew-zealand 2.435e-01 2.550e+01 0.010 0.9924 count.goodother 2.597e+01 4.868e+01 0.534 0.5936 count.goodportugal -4.449e+00 1.571e+01 -0.283 0.7770 count.goodspain 4.704e+00 1.029e+01 0.457 0.6476 count.goodsweden 4.209e+01 2.412e+01 1.745 0.0810 . count.gooduk 5.588e+00 7.624e+00 0.733 0.4635 year.min:count.goodaustralia -1.300e-03 6.797e-03 -0.191 0.8483 year.min:count.goodbelgium 2.444e-02 1.362e-02 1.793 0.0729 . year.min:count.goodcanada 3.736e-03 5.700e-03 0.655 0.5122 year.min:count.gooddenmark 9.945e-04 1.686e-02 0.059 0.9530 year.min:count.goodfinland -3.074e-02 1.707e-02 -1.800 0.0718 . year.min:count.goodfrance -1.160e-02 1.110e-02 -1.046 0.2958 year.min:count.goodgermany 2.354e-03 8.878e-03 0.265 0.7909 year.min:count.goodireland 1.294e-02 2.130e-02 0.608 0.5435 year.min:count.gooditaly -9.484e-03 1.271e-02 -0.746 0.4556 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -2.764e-02 3.715e-03 -7.439 1.04e-13 *** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -5.474e-05 1.282e-02 -0.004 0.9966 year.min:count.goodother -1.305e-02 2.447e-02 -0.533 0.5939 year.min:count.goodportugal 2.282e-03 7.890e-03 0.289 0.7724 year.min:count.goodspain -2.484e-03 5.176e-03 -0.480 0.6313 year.min:count.goodsweden -2.114e-02 1.213e-02 -1.743 0.0814 . year.min:count.gooduk -2.806e-03 3.834e-03 -0.732 0.4642 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 0.367572) Null deviance: 12601 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 12287 on 31633 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5 [1] "------Supplementary Analyses-------" [1] "------Figure 2a, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.8679 -1.1700 -0.8341 -0.2266 16.0250 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 1.516e+04 1.844e+03 8.221 < 2e-16 *** year.min -2.331e+01 2.825e+00 -8.248 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^2) 1.194e-02 1.443e-03 8.275 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^3) -2.038e-06 2.456e-07 -8.300 < 2e-16 *** count.goodaustralia -5.338e+03 1.213e+04 -0.440 0.659961 count.goodbelgium -2.564e+04 1.449e+04 -1.769 0.076901 . count.goodcanada -1.170e+04 5.701e+03 -2.053 0.040092 * count.gooddenmark 9.711e+03 1.730e+04 0.561 0.574600 count.goodfinland -1.690e+05 9.004e+04 -1.877 0.060499 . count.goodfrance -2.237e+04 3.015e+04 -0.742 0.458037 count.goodgermany -1.131e+05 2.922e+04 -3.871 0.000109 *** count.goodireland -1.040e+04 1.480e+04 -0.703 0.482332 count.gooditaly 1.415e+05 1.131e+05 1.251 0.210938 count.goodnetherlands 1.320e+04 4.399e+03 3.001 0.002690 ** count.goodnew-zealand 8.198e+03 1.607e+04 0.510 0.609989 count.goodother -7.502e+04 3.106e+04 -2.415 0.015742 * count.goodportugal -2.899e+04 2.377e+04 -1.220 0.222554 count.goodspain -5.121e+04 2.638e+04 -1.941 0.052244 . count.goodsweden 2.791e+02 1.550e+04 0.018 0.985631 count.gooduk 5.377e+03 2.484e+03 2.165 0.030423 * year.min:count.goodaustralia 8.124e+00 1.848e+01 0.440 0.660249 year.min:count.goodbelgium 3.940e+01 2.219e+01 1.775 0.075870 . year.min:count.goodcanada 1.790e+01 8.715e+00 2.054 0.039942 * year.min:count.gooddenmark -1.479e+01 2.650e+01 -0.558 0.576720 year.min:count.goodfinland 2.560e+02 1.366e+02 1.874 0.060894 . year.min:count.goodfrance 3.364e+01 4.583e+01 0.734 0.462931 year.min:count.goodgermany 1.719e+02 4.438e+01 3.872 0.000108 *** year.min:count.goodireland 1.610e+01 2.272e+01 0.709 0.478444 year.min:count.gooditaly -2.147e+02 1.713e+02 -1.253 0.210062 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -2.018e+01 6.723e+00 -3.002 0.002687 ** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -1.264e+01 2.455e+01 -0.515 0.606666 year.min:count.goodother 1.149e+02 4.744e+01 2.422 0.015419 * year.min:count.goodportugal 4.437e+01 3.624e+01 1.224 0.220835 year.min:count.goodspain 7.793e+01 4.008e+01 1.944 0.051879 . year.min:count.goodsweden -8.051e-01 2.366e+01 -0.034 0.972852 year.min:count.gooduk -8.178e+00 3.808e+00 -2.147 0.031772 * I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia -4.121e-03 9.385e-03 -0.439 0.660573 I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -2.017e-02 1.132e-02 -1.781 0.074856 . I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada -9.129e-03 4.440e-03 -2.056 0.039797 * I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark 7.511e-03 1.353e-02 0.555 0.578879 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland -1.292e-01 6.904e-02 -1.871 0.061290 . I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance -1.686e-02 2.322e-02 -0.726 0.467841 I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany -8.705e-02 2.247e-02 -3.874 0.000107 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodireland -8.312e-03 1.162e-02 -0.715 0.474530 I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly 1.087e-01 8.653e-02 1.256 0.209211 I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.028e-02 3.425e-03 3.002 0.002687 ** I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand 6.491e-03 1.249e-02 0.519 0.603424 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -5.869e-02 2.415e-02 -2.430 0.015106 * I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -2.263e-02 1.841e-02 -1.229 0.219106 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain -3.953e-02 2.030e-02 -1.947 0.051536 . I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden 6.014e-04 1.204e-02 0.050 0.960155 I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 4.144e-03 1.946e-03 2.130 0.033183 * I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia 6.967e-07 1.588e-06 0.439 0.660934 I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 3.443e-06 1.926e-06 1.788 0.073860 . I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada 1.551e-06 7.541e-07 2.057 0.039658 * I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark -1.271e-06 2.303e-06 -0.552 0.581076 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland 2.174e-05 1.164e-05 1.869 0.061684 . I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance 2.815e-06 3.921e-06 0.718 0.472768 I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany 1.470e-05 3.793e-06 3.875 0.000107 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodireland 1.430e-06 1.982e-06 0.722 0.470595 I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly -1.833e-05 1.457e-05 -1.258 0.208387 I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -1.745e-06 5.814e-07 -3.002 0.002688 ** I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -1.111e-06 2.120e-06 -0.524 0.600255 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 9.988e-06 4.098e-06 2.437 0.014801 * I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 3.847e-06 3.118e-06 1.234 0.217370 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain 6.682e-06 3.427e-06 1.950 0.051215 . I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden -1.343e-07 2.041e-06 -0.066 0.947544 I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -7.000e-07 3.314e-07 -2.112 0.034655 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 1.244642) Null deviance: 70436 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 67739 on 51416 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 2a - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = quasipoisson, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.5180 -1.1623 -0.8228 -0.2284 16.1953 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 4.836e+00 1.346e+00 3.593 0.000327 *** year.min -2.335e-03 6.765e-04 -3.452 0.000557 *** count.goodaustralia -6.172e+00 3.844e+00 -1.606 0.108346 count.goodbelgium -1.931e+01 7.492e+00 -2.577 0.009975 ** count.goodcanada -1.516e+01 3.274e+00 -4.631 3.65e-06 *** count.gooddenmark -4.853e+00 7.671e+00 -0.633 0.526990 count.goodfinland 1.167e+01 7.759e+00 1.504 0.132594 count.goodfrance 8.962e+00 6.057e+00 1.480 0.138992 count.goodgermany -5.934e+00 4.330e+00 -1.370 0.170575 count.goodireland -2.685e+01 1.225e+01 -2.191 0.028480 * count.gooditaly -1.008e+01 7.551e+00 -1.335 0.181745 count.goodnetherlands 1.095e+00 1.854e+00 0.591 0.554754 count.goodnew-zealand 1.700e+01 7.980e+00 2.130 0.033153 * count.goodother -3.780e+01 1.380e+01 -2.739 0.006173 ** count.goodportugal -1.722e+01 5.499e+00 -3.132 0.001737 ** count.goodspain 9.437e+00 3.381e+00 2.791 0.005255 ** count.goodsweden 9.902e-01 6.214e+00 0.159 0.873396 count.gooduk 5.327e-01 1.991e+00 0.268 0.789061 year.min:count.goodaustralia 3.072e-03 1.932e-03 1.590 0.111816 year.min:count.goodbelgium 9.668e-03 3.762e-03 2.570 0.010175 * year.min:count.goodcanada 7.580e-03 1.646e-03 4.606 4.12e-06 *** year.min:count.gooddenmark 2.439e-03 3.854e-03 0.633 0.526805 year.min:count.goodfinland -5.845e-03 3.899e-03 -1.499 0.133910 year.min:count.goodfrance -4.541e-03 3.045e-03 -1.491 0.135846 year.min:count.goodgermany 3.025e-03 2.174e-03 1.391 0.164212 year.min:count.goodireland 1.349e-02 6.157e-03 2.191 0.028477 * year.min:count.gooditaly 5.045e-03 3.794e-03 1.330 0.183539 year.min:count.goodnetherlands -5.785e-04 9.319e-04 -0.621 0.534713 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -8.609e-03 4.013e-03 -2.145 0.031935 * year.min:count.goodother 1.897e-02 6.932e-03 2.736 0.006214 ** year.min:count.goodportugal 8.569e-03 2.761e-03 3.103 0.001915 ** year.min:count.goodspain -4.880e-03 1.700e-03 -2.870 0.004109 ** year.min:count.goodsweden -5.024e-04 3.123e-03 -0.161 0.872188 year.min:count.gooduk -2.660e-04 1.001e-03 -0.266 0.790480 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 1.237695) Null deviance: 42928 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 41266 on 31633 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4 [1] "------Figure 2b, data country by country------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -6.6535 -0.3762 -0.0511 0.2365 24.1007 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -7.257e+03 1.238e+03 -5.860 4.65e-09 *** year.min 1.124e+01 1.897e+00 5.923 3.18e-09 *** I(year.min^2) -5.803e-03 9.690e-04 -5.988 2.13e-09 *** I(year.min^3) 9.990e-07 1.649e-07 6.057 1.39e-09 *** count.goodaustralia 1.508e+04 7.943e+03 1.899 0.05758 . count.goodbelgium -6.772e+03 9.541e+03 -0.710 0.47784 count.goodcanada 4.907e+03 3.624e+03 1.354 0.17575 count.gooddenmark -4.694e+03 1.135e+04 -0.413 0.67930 count.goodfinland 3.164e+04 5.666e+04 0.559 0.57649 count.goodfrance 2.091e+04 1.229e+04 1.701 0.08897 . count.goodgermany 4.317e+04 1.909e+04 2.262 0.02373 * count.goodireland -9.319e+03 9.677e+03 -0.963 0.33555 count.gooditaly 3.307e+05 7.013e+04 4.716 2.41e-06 *** count.goodnetherlands 1.716e+04 2.937e+03 5.845 5.09e-09 *** count.goodnew-zealand 5.331e+03 9.742e+03 0.547 0.58420 count.goodother -1.360e+04 1.908e+04 -0.713 0.47600 count.goodportugal -1.258e+04 1.386e+04 -0.908 0.36409 count.goodspain 7.344e+03 1.039e+04 0.707 0.47983 count.goodsweden -1.561e+04 9.058e+03 -1.724 0.08475 . count.gooduk 4.409e+03 1.671e+03 2.639 0.00832 ** year.min:count.goodaustralia -2.309e+01 1.210e+01 -1.908 0.05640 . year.min:count.goodbelgium 1.033e+01 1.461e+01 0.707 0.47946 year.min:count.goodcanada -7.523e+00 5.542e+00 -1.357 0.17464 year.min:count.gooddenmark 7.257e+00 1.739e+01 0.417 0.67652 year.min:count.goodfinland -4.806e+01 8.598e+01 -0.559 0.57621 year.min:count.goodfrance -3.202e+01 1.874e+01 -1.709 0.08744 . year.min:count.goodgermany -6.586e+01 2.904e+01 -2.268 0.02331 * year.min:count.goodireland 1.428e+01 1.486e+01 0.961 0.33647 year.min:count.gooditaly -5.027e+02 1.063e+02 -4.730 2.25e-06 *** year.min:count.goodnetherlands -2.630e+01 4.487e+00 -5.861 4.63e-09 *** year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -8.244e+00 1.488e+01 -0.554 0.57964 year.min:count.goodother 2.095e+01 2.919e+01 0.718 0.47297 year.min:count.goodportugal 1.914e+01 2.114e+01 0.906 0.36520 year.min:count.goodspain -1.151e+01 1.585e+01 -0.726 0.46766 year.min:count.goodsweden 2.399e+01 1.385e+01 1.732 0.08330 . year.min:count.gooduk -6.744e+00 2.561e+00 -2.633 0.00846 ** I(year.min^2):count.goodaustralia 1.178e-02 6.146e-03 1.917 0.05523 . I(year.min^2):count.goodbelgium -5.255e-03 7.459e-03 -0.704 0.48115 I(year.min^2):count.goodcanada 3.844e-03 2.825e-03 1.361 0.17349 I(year.min^2):count.gooddenmark -3.739e-03 8.881e-03 -0.421 0.67376 I(year.min^2):count.goodfinland 2.433e-02 4.349e-02 0.559 0.57594 I(year.min^2):count.goodfrance 1.635e-02 9.519e-03 1.717 0.08596 . I(year.min^2):count.goodgermany 3.349e-02 1.472e-02 2.275 0.02290 * I(year.min^2):count.goodireland -7.292e-03 7.601e-03 -0.959 0.33743 I(year.min^2):count.gooditaly 2.547e-01 5.369e-02 4.744 2.11e-06 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodnetherlands 1.343e-02 2.285e-03 5.876 4.22e-09 *** I(year.min^2):count.goodnew-zealand 4.248e-03 7.578e-03 0.561 0.57507 I(year.min^2):count.goodother -1.075e-02 1.488e-02 -0.723 0.46995 I(year.min^2):count.goodportugal -9.714e-03 1.075e-02 -0.903 0.36634 I(year.min^2):count.goodspain 6.010e-03 8.055e-03 0.746 0.45560 I(year.min^2):count.goodsweden -1.228e-02 7.058e-03 -1.740 0.08184 . I(year.min^2):count.gooduk 3.438e-03 1.308e-03 2.628 0.00860 ** I(year.min^3):count.goodaustralia -2.004e-06 1.040e-06 -1.926 0.05408 . I(year.min^3):count.goodbelgium 8.903e-07 1.269e-06 0.702 0.48291 I(year.min^3):count.goodcanada -6.549e-07 4.798e-07 -1.365 0.17230 I(year.min^3):count.gooddenmark 6.419e-07 1.511e-06 0.425 0.67103 I(year.min^3):count.goodfinland -4.104e-06 7.333e-06 -0.560 0.57570 I(year.min^3):count.goodfrance -2.781e-06 1.612e-06 -1.725 0.08452 . I(year.min^3):count.goodgermany -5.675e-06 2.487e-06 -2.282 0.02251 * I(year.min^3):count.goodireland 1.241e-06 1.296e-06 0.957 0.33844 I(year.min^3):count.gooditaly -4.301e-05 9.041e-06 -4.757 1.97e-06 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodnetherlands -2.285e-06 3.879e-07 -5.891 3.86e-09 *** I(year.min^3):count.goodnew-zealand -7.297e-07 1.286e-06 -0.567 0.57048 I(year.min^3):count.goodother 1.840e-06 2.529e-06 0.727 0.46696 I(year.min^3):count.goodportugal 1.643e-06 1.823e-06 0.901 0.36752 I(year.min^3):count.goodspain -1.045e-06 1.365e-06 -0.766 0.44366 I(year.min^3):count.goodsweden 2.096e-06 1.199e-06 1.749 0.08038 . I(year.min^3):count.gooduk -5.842e-07 2.228e-07 -2.622 0.00875 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.492549) Null deviance: 34248 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 25325 on 51416 degrees of freedom AIC: 11154 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------Figure 2b - 1980-1998------" Call: glm(formula = log10(av.coaut) ~ (year.min) * count.good, family = gaussian, weights = tot.paps) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -6.7535 -0.3720 -0.0562 0.2180 24.1963 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -2.238e+01 1.012e+00 -22.115 < 2e-16 *** year.min 1.155e-02 5.087e-04 22.710 < 2e-16 *** count.goodaustralia 8.705e+00 2.813e+00 3.095 0.00197 ** count.goodbelgium 3.824e+00 5.431e+00 0.704 0.48137 count.goodcanada 2.985e+00 2.375e+00 1.257 0.20874 count.gooddenmark -2.994e+00 5.762e+00 -0.520 0.60335 count.goodfinland -9.646e+00 5.976e+00 -1.614 0.10653 count.goodfrance 9.015e+00 4.405e+00 2.047 0.04071 * count.goodgermany -3.858e+00 3.378e+00 -1.142 0.25352 count.goodireland 1.167e+01 9.120e+00 1.279 0.20083 count.gooditaly 3.194e+01 5.543e+00 5.761 8.43e-09 *** count.goodnetherlands 2.281e+00 1.376e+00 1.658 0.09735 . count.goodnew-zealand 1.045e+01 5.661e+00 1.846 0.06496 . count.goodother -1.749e+01 9.959e+00 -1.756 0.07908 . count.goodportugal 1.776e+00 3.792e+00 0.468 0.63961 count.goodspain 1.755e+01 2.275e+00 7.712 1.27e-14 *** count.goodsweden -2.554e+01 4.652e+00 -5.491 4.02e-08 *** count.gooduk 3.687e+00 1.499e+00 2.460 0.01390 * year.min:count.goodaustralia -4.409e-03 1.414e-03 -3.119 0.00182 ** year.min:count.goodbelgium -1.923e-03 2.727e-03 -0.705 0.48085 year.min:count.goodcanada -1.533e-03 1.194e-03 -1.284 0.19905 year.min:count.gooddenmark 1.518e-03 2.894e-03 0.525 0.59984 year.min:count.goodfinland 4.843e-03 3.003e-03 1.613 0.10685 year.min:count.goodfrance -4.510e-03 2.214e-03 -2.037 0.04168 * year.min:count.goodgermany 1.958e-03 1.697e-03 1.154 0.24843 year.min:count.goodireland -5.883e-03 4.582e-03 -1.284 0.19921 year.min:count.gooditaly -1.597e-02 2.785e-03 -5.734 9.90e-09 *** year.min:count.goodnetherlands -1.113e-03 6.917e-04 -1.609 0.10770 year.min:count.goodnew-zealand -5.300e-03 2.846e-03 -1.862 0.06260 . year.min:count.goodother 8.773e-03 5.003e-03 1.754 0.07949 . year.min:count.goodportugal -9.221e-04 1.904e-03 -0.484 0.62819 year.min:count.goodspain -8.802e-03 1.144e-03 -7.693 1.47e-14 *** year.min:count.goodsweden 1.285e-02 2.337e-03 5.497 3.90e-08 *** year.min:count.gooduk -1.851e-03 7.534e-04 -2.457 0.01401 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.5778703) Null deviance: 19908 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 18280 on 31633 degrees of freedom AIC: 11643 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------multivariable analysis - fractional productivity, adjusting for co-authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * (disc + av.coaut), family = gaussian) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.3806 -0.2678 -0.0036 0.2527 4.3448 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) -4.727e+03 1.964e+03 -2.407 0.016090 * year.min 6.999e+00 3.005e+00 2.329 0.019852 * I(year.min^2) -3.444e-03 1.532e-03 -2.248 0.024607 * I(year.min^3) 5.632e-07 2.604e-07 2.162 0.030591 * discmathematics 1.821e+04 8.243e+03 2.209 0.027180 * discearth and space -1.902e+04 7.362e+03 -2.584 0.009778 ** discphysics 9.469e+02 5.255e+03 0.180 0.857005 discchemistry -1.101e+04 3.691e+03 -2.983 0.002852 ** discbiology -1.075e+03 4.593e+03 -0.234 0.814916 discbiomedical research 1.790e+03 3.280e+03 0.546 0.585290 discpsychology -1.818e+04 8.768e+03 -2.073 0.038174 * discsocial sciences -7.199e+03 6.370e+03 -1.130 0.258426 discarts&humanities -1.237e+04 2.488e+04 -0.497 0.619106 discother -1.795e+04 4.809e+03 -3.732 0.000190 *** av.coaut 8.713e+03 5.309e+02 16.412 < 2e-16 *** year.min:discmathematics -2.780e+01 1.265e+01 -2.198 0.027959 * year.min:discearth and space 2.914e+01 1.126e+01 2.587 0.009684 ** year.min:discphysics -1.297e+00 8.043e+00 -0.161 0.871867 year.min:discchemistry 1.703e+01 5.655e+00 3.011 0.002601 ** year.min:discbiology 1.665e+00 7.031e+00 0.237 0.812841 year.min:discbiomedical research -2.767e+00 5.024e+00 -0.551 0.581824 year.min:discpsychology 2.793e+01 1.343e+01 2.080 0.037554 * year.min:discsocial sciences 1.120e+01 9.763e+00 1.147 0.251483 year.min:discarts&humanities 1.858e+01 3.785e+01 0.491 0.623490 year.min:discother 2.760e+01 7.360e+00 3.749 0.000178 *** year.min:av.coaut -1.335e+01 8.076e-01 -16.528 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^2):discmathematics 1.414e-02 6.467e-03 2.187 0.028769 * I(year.min^2):discearth and space -1.488e-02 5.744e-03 -2.590 0.009592 ** I(year.min^2):discphysics 5.834e-04 4.103e-03 0.142 0.886918 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -8.778e-03 2.888e-03 -3.040 0.002370 ** I(year.min^2):discbiology -8.599e-04 3.588e-03 -0.240 0.810611 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 1.426e-03 2.565e-03 0.556 0.578271 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -1.431e-02 6.856e-03 -2.086 0.036939 * I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -5.803e-03 4.987e-03 -1.164 0.244581 I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -9.305e-03 1.919e-02 -0.485 0.627731 I(year.min^2):discother -1.414e-02 3.754e-03 -3.767 0.000165 *** I(year.min^2):av.coaut 6.814e-03 4.095e-04 16.640 < 2e-16 *** I(year.min^3):discmathematics -2.397e-06 1.102e-06 -2.175 0.029613 * I(year.min^3):discearth and space 2.532e-06 9.763e-07 2.594 0.009501 ** I(year.min^3):discphysics -8.574e-08 6.975e-07 -0.123 0.902169 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 1.508e-06 4.915e-07 3.068 0.002159 ** I(year.min^3):discbiology 1.481e-07 6.103e-07 0.243 0.808231 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -2.449e-07 4.364e-07 -0.561 0.574636 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 2.442e-06 1.167e-06 2.093 0.036329 * I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 1.003e-06 8.491e-07 1.181 0.237715 I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 1.554e-06 3.243e-06 0.479 0.631820 I(year.min^3):discother 2.416e-06 6.383e-07 3.785 0.000154 *** I(year.min^3):av.coaut -1.159e-06 6.921e-08 -16.748 < 2e-16 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.1354184) Null deviance: 8487.3 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 6965.4 on 51436 degrees of freedom AIC: 43219 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers adjusting for co-authors - 1980-1998-----" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps/av.coaut) ~ year.min * (disc + av.coaut), family = gaussian) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.3633 -0.2668 0.0011 0.2533 2.5013 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.123e+01 1.222e+00 17.381 < 2e-16 *** year.min -1.055e-02 6.139e-04 -17.181 < 2e-16 *** discmathematics 3.060e+00 7.739e+00 0.395 0.692567 discearth and space -6.094e+00 3.904e+00 -1.561 0.118519 discphysics -8.534e+00 3.565e+00 -2.394 0.016673 * discchemistry -1.367e+01 2.844e+00 -4.807 1.54e-06 *** discbiology -9.393e-01 2.932e+00 -0.320 0.748733 discbiomedical research 6.926e+00 2.331e+00 2.971 0.002967 ** discpsychology -7.552e+00 5.986e+00 -1.262 0.207056 discsocial sciences -4.564e+00 5.709e+00 -0.799 0.424040 discarts&humanities -4.745e+00 5.658e+00 -0.839 0.401644 discother -1.084e+01 2.952e+00 -3.672 0.000241 *** av.coaut -6.813e-01 9.032e-02 -7.544 4.69e-14 *** year.min:discmathematics -1.387e-03 3.891e-03 -0.357 0.721461 year.min:discearth and space 3.103e-03 1.962e-03 1.582 0.113711 year.min:discphysics 4.387e-03 1.792e-03 2.448 0.014381 * year.min:discchemistry 6.895e-03 1.429e-03 4.823 1.42e-06 *** year.min:discbiology 4.891e-04 1.474e-03 0.332 0.740007 year.min:discbiomedical research -3.481e-03 1.171e-03 -2.972 0.002964 ** year.min:discpsychology 3.884e-03 3.008e-03 1.291 0.196554 year.min:discsocial sciences 2.455e-03 2.870e-03 0.855 0.392424 year.min:discarts&humanities 2.584e-03 2.846e-03 0.908 0.363906 year.min:discother 5.492e-03 1.484e-03 3.702 0.000215 *** year.min:av.coaut 3.384e-04 4.532e-05 7.466 8.45e-14 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.1378186) Null deviance: 4900.9 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 4361.0 on 31643 degrees of freedom AIC: 27135 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers as first author, adjusting for co-authors------" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ (year.min + I(year.min^2) + I(year.min^3)) * (disc + av.coaut), family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.2580 -0.3706 0.0086 0.3078 3.8280 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 2.323e+04 2.904e+05 0.080 0.936 year.min -3.594e+01 4.445e+02 -0.081 0.936 I(year.min^2) 1.853e-02 2.268e-01 0.082 0.935 I(year.min^3) -3.185e-06 3.857e-05 -0.083 0.934 discmathematics 2.907e+03 9.251e+05 0.003 0.997 discearth and space -3.798e+04 8.914e+05 -0.043 0.966 discphysics 2.388e+03 5.924e+05 0.004 0.997 discchemistry -2.737e+04 4.723e+05 -0.058 0.954 discbiology -1.030e+04 5.726e+05 -0.018 0.986 discbiomedical research 1.951e+03 3.987e+05 0.005 0.996 discpsychology -3.618e+04 1.019e+06 -0.036 0.972 discsocial sciences -2.192e+04 7.161e+05 -0.031 0.976 discarts&humanities -3.418e+04 3.110e+06 -0.011 0.991 discother -2.720e+04 6.172e+05 -0.044 0.965 av.coaut 1.617e+03 1.108e+05 0.015 0.988 year.min:discmathematics -4.366e+00 1.420e+03 -0.003 0.998 year.min:discearth and space 5.825e+01 1.364e+03 0.043 0.966 year.min:discphysics -3.507e+00 9.072e+02 -0.004 0.997 year.min:discchemistry 4.215e+01 7.238e+02 0.058 0.954 year.min:discbiology 1.581e+01 8.770e+02 0.018 0.986 year.min:discbiomedical research -3.024e+00 6.111e+02 -0.005 0.996 year.min:discpsychology 5.552e+01 1.561e+03 0.036 0.972 year.min:discsocial sciences 3.376e+01 1.098e+03 0.031 0.975 year.min:discarts&humanities 5.199e+01 4.729e+03 0.011 0.991 year.min:discother 4.175e+01 9.447e+02 0.044 0.965 year.min:av.coaut -2.415e+00 1.688e+02 -0.014 0.989 I(year.min^2):discmathematics 2.186e-03 7.266e-01 0.003 0.998 I(year.min^2):discearth and space -2.977e-02 6.955e-01 -0.043 0.966 I(year.min^2):discphysics 1.713e-03 4.631e-01 0.004 0.997 I(year.min^2):discchemistry -2.164e-02 3.698e-01 -0.059 0.953 I(year.min^2):discbiology -8.094e-03 4.477e-01 -0.018 0.986 I(year.min^2):discbiomedical research 1.562e-03 3.121e-01 0.005 0.996 I(year.min^2):discpsychology -2.839e-02 7.968e-01 -0.036 0.972 I(year.min^2):discsocial sciences -1.733e-02 5.610e-01 -0.031 0.975 I(year.min^2):discarts&humanities -2.636e-02 2.397e+00 -0.011 0.991 I(year.min^2):discother -2.136e-02 4.819e-01 -0.044 0.965 I(year.min^2):av.coaut 1.200e-03 8.574e-02 0.014 0.989 I(year.min^3):discmathematics -3.647e-07 1.239e-04 -0.003 0.998 I(year.min^3):discearth and space 5.071e-06 1.182e-04 0.043 0.966 I(year.min^3):discphysics -2.782e-07 7.878e-05 -0.004 0.997 I(year.min^3):discchemistry 3.701e-06 6.295e-05 0.059 0.953 I(year.min^3):discbiology 1.381e-06 7.617e-05 0.018 0.986 I(year.min^3):discbiomedical research -2.691e-07 5.313e-05 -0.005 0.996 I(year.min^3):discpsychology 4.839e-06 1.356e-04 0.036 0.972 I(year.min^3):discsocial sciences 2.966e-06 9.554e-05 0.031 0.975 I(year.min^3):discarts&humanities 4.456e-06 4.049e-04 0.011 0.991 I(year.min^3):discother 3.641e-06 8.194e-05 0.044 0.965 I(year.min^3):av.coaut -1.983e-07 1.452e-05 -0.014 0.989 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 1366.727) Null deviance: 15191 on 51483 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 14438 on 51436 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6 [1] "------multivariable analysis - total papers as first author, co-authors - 1980-1998-----" Call: glm(formula = log10(tot.paps.first + 1) ~ year.min * (disc + av.coaut), family = quasipoisson) Deviance Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -1.2772 -0.3873 0.0222 0.3213 3.6354 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 3.341e+01 1.134e+02 0.295 0.768 year.min -1.698e-02 5.692e-02 -0.298 0.765 discmathematics 5.676e+00 4.845e+02 0.012 0.991 discearth and space -1.538e+01 2.612e+02 -0.059 0.953 discphysics -9.434e-03 2.231e+02 0.000 1.000 discchemistry -2.386e+01 1.997e+02 -0.119 0.905 discbiology -4.994e+00 2.034e+02 -0.025 0.980 discbiomedical research 4.645e+00 1.576e+02 0.029 0.976 discpsychology -1.316e+01 3.873e+02 -0.034 0.973 discsocial sciences -3.881e+00 3.546e+02 -0.011 0.991 discarts&humanities -1.170e+01 3.431e+02 -0.034 0.973 discother -9.277e+00 2.043e+02 -0.045 0.964 av.coaut -8.049e+00 2.037e+01 -0.395 0.693 year.min:discmathematics -2.817e-03 2.436e-01 -0.012 0.991 year.min:discearth and space 7.720e-03 1.312e-01 0.059 0.953 year.min:discphysics 8.967e-05 1.122e-01 0.001 0.999 year.min:discchemistry 1.194e-02 1.004e-01 0.119 0.905 year.min:discbiology 2.460e-03 1.022e-01 0.024 0.981 year.min:discbiomedical research -2.343e-03 7.920e-02 -0.030 0.976 year.min:discpsychology 6.629e-03 1.946e-01 0.034 0.973 year.min:discsocial sciences 1.997e-03 1.783e-01 0.011 0.991 year.min:discarts&humanities 5.950e-03 1.726e-01 0.034 0.973 year.min:discother 4.615e-03 1.027e-01 0.045 0.964 year.min:av.coaut 4.027e-03 1.021e-02 0.395 0.693 (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 369.8481) Null deviance: 9932.0 on 31666 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 9664.3 on 31643 degrees of freedom AIC: NA Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6