Supplementary Data 10
Site-specific nest abudances from the Adélie population model (ver. 1.2 in www.penguinmap.com) for Eastern Antarctica (CCAMLR sub-areas 58.4.1 and 58.4.2).
Table of Contents
I. Data scarcity
Fig. S10-1: Histogram showing number of seasons of actual data for all 0 Adélie sites in Eastern Antarctica.
Fig. S10-2: Data matrix showing sites (columns) and years (rows) for all Adélie sites in Eastern Antarctica. White cells indicate no data, black cells indicate a nest count, red cells indicate a chick count, and yellow cells paired nest and chick count.
II. Population trend
Fig. S10-3: Adélie abundance \(z*\) in Eastern Antarctica. The gray (1982 - 2015) and green (2016) shaded area represents the 90% highest posterior density credible interval; the black line is the posterior median. Note that 2016 is beyond the end of our time series; all abundance estimates from 2016 reflect population forecasts from the model.
III. Sea ice conditions
Fig. S10-4: Average peak winter and summer sea ice concentration across all Adélie sites in Eastern Antarctica. The gray shaded areas represent the 95% confidence intervals; the black lines are the means. Peak winter sea ice concentration is the maximum monthly concentration (June through September) in a 500 km radius around each Adélie site across the previous 5 winters. Peak summer sea ice concentration is the maximum monthly concentration (November through January) in a 500 km radius around each Adélie site four years prior. Confidence intervals less than zero were truncated to zero. Note that 2016 is beyond the end of our sea ice time series; all site-level peak winter (summer) sea ice concentrations in 2016 represent the average peak winter (summer) sea ice sea ice concentations from 2011 - 2015 at each site.
IV. Site level plots
For each Adélie site in Eastern Antarctica, we show the posterior median and 75% highest posterior density credible interval for the average actual population growth rate multiplier. This was computed as the geometric mean of the ratios of abundance \(z*\) in year \(y+1\) to year \(y\) for all years the site was occupied between 1982 and 2015. Note that in cases where Adélies have gone extinct at a site the population growth rate multiplier for that site reflects annual changes in nest abundance prior to extinction. We plot the annual Adélie nest abundance \(z*\), nest (black circles) or chick (red circles) counts, and the seasons where no nests (black squares) or chicks (red squares) were observed. The gray (1982 - 2015) and green (2016) shaded areas represent the 75% highest posterior density credible intervals; the black linea are the posterior medians. The error bars represent the 90% highest posterior density credible intervals from the posterior predictive distributions for the nest or chick counts. Note that 2016 is beyond the end of our time series; all nest abundance estimates from 2016 reflect population forecasts from the model.
