This PDF file includes:

• Section S1. Datasets
• Section S2. Methodology
• Fig. S1. Schematic flowchart of the methodology to calculate temporal probability of warm, dry, and warm+dry years.
• Fig. S2. A C-vine copula with four dimensions, three trees, and six edges.
• Fig. S3. P values for the time trend of the residual time series.
• Fig. S4. Comparison of joint probability in the NOAA observations and CMIP5 Historical simulations.
• Table S1. List of climate model realizations for temperature variable used to calculate warm year probability for the CMIP5 Historical and Natural forcing experiments and also for future projections based on RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
• Table S2. List of climate model realizations for precipitation variable used to calculate dry year probability for the CMIP5 Historical and Natural forcing experiments and also for future projections based on RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
• Table S3. List of climate model realizations available and overlapped for temperature and precipitation variables used to calculate joint warm and dry year probability for the CMIP5 Historical and Natural forcing experiments and also for future projections based on RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
• Table S4. Elliptical and Archimedean copula functions used in the present study.
• References (33–40)

Download PDF