Table S3. Region-to-region transition rates inferred using discrete traits model,,,
Transition,Inclusion probability,Bayes factor,Conditional mean rate
Veneto to Friuli-Venezia Giulia,0.997,4480,1.079
Veneto to Lombardy,0.993,2160,1.827
Emilia Romagna to Lazio,0.99,1500,1.11
Lombardy to Piedmont,0.879,111,1.109
Lombardy to Emilia Romagna,0.852,87.5,1.421
Veneto to Emilia Romagna,0.589,21.8,1.159
Piedmont to Emilia Romagna,0.38,9.34,0.818
Veneto to Piedmont,0.322,7.22,0.703
Piedmont to Lombardy,0.291,6.25,0.727
Piedmont to Veneto,0.253,5.17,0.607
Friuli-Venezia Giulia to Emilia Romagna,0.243,4.89,0.691
Friuli-Venezia Giulia to Veneto,0.241,4.82,0.725
Lazio to Veneto,0.233,4.62,0.651
Friuli-Venezia Giulia to Lombardy,0.233,4.62,0.652
Lazio to Emilia Romagna,0.23,4.54,0.667
Piedmont to Friuli-Venezia Giulia,0.229,4.52,0.598
Emilia Romagna to Piedmont,0.228,4.5,0.996
Piedmont to Lazio,0.221,4.31,0.608
Friuli-Venezia Giulia to Piedmont,0.22,4.29,0.679
Lazio to Friuli-Venezia Giulia,0.218,4.24,0.646
Lazio to Lombardy,0.217,4.21,0.666
Lazio to Piedmont,0.209,4.03,0.655
Friuli-Venezia Giulia to Lazio,0.205,3.94,0.638
Lombardy to Veneto,0.194,3.66,0.627
Emilia Romagna to Lombardy,0.167,3.04,0.786
Emilia Romagna to Veneto,0.141,2.5,0.611
Emilia Romagna to Friuli-Venezia Giulia,0.134,2.35,0.605
Lombardy to Friuli-Venezia Giulia,0.091,1.52,0.394
Lombardy to Lazio,0.089,1.49,0.404
Veneto to Lazio,0.084,1.4,0.38