Table 3. Estimated reduction in estimated number of primary care contacts.
Estimated number of primary care contacts for acute physical and mental health conditions in a hypothetical non-COVID year compared to the number of contacts estimated from our model for 2020 at two weekly time points: 26th April and 28th June 2020. Estimates for the number of contacts are in a hypothetical population of one million people but the reference populations are condition specific. For example, the estimated number of contacts for diabetic emergencies is among a population of 1 million people aged 11 years and older with a diabetes mellitus diagnosis, whereas the estimated number of people with depression contacts among one million individuals from the general population aged 5 and over.
| Condition | Week commencing | Population (age limit) | Without COVID-19 & restrictions: Estimated number of contacts in a population of 1 million (95% CI) |
With COVID-19 & restrictions: Estimated number of contacts in a population of 1 million (95% CI) |
Difference between the estimated weekly contacts and estimated number of contacts with no restrictions* |
Cumulative sum of the difference in primary care contacts since 29th March* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetic emergencies | 26-Apr | People with diabetes diagnosis (11+) | 39 (34 - 44) | 14 (10 - 20) | <100 | <100 |
| 28-Jun | People with diabetes diagnosis (11+) | 38 (33 - 43) | 12 (8 - 19) | <100 | 330 | |
| Acute alcohol-related event | 26-Apr | General population (18+) | 13 (11 - 14) | 16 (15 - 18) | >-10 | >-100 |
| 28-Jun | General population (18+) | 14 (13 - 16) | 24 (21 - 26) | >-10 | >-100 | |
| Anxiety | 26-Apr | General population (11+) | 1,816 (1,695 - 1,945) | 1,266 (1,148 - 1,396) | 550 | 2,300 |
| 28-Jun | General population (11+) | 1,943 (1,818 - 2,076) | 1,532 (1,383 - 1,696) | 411 | 6,600 | |
| Depression | 26-Apr | General population (11+) | 2,451 (2,285 - 2,629) | 1,391 (1,241 - 1,558) | 1,060 | 4,440 |
| 28-Jun | General population (11+) | 2,657 (2,484 - 2,843) | 1,857 (1,657 - 2,080) | 801 | 12,800 | |
| Eating disorders | 26-Apr | General population (11+) | 44 (41 - 47) | 29 (26 - 33) | <100 | <100 |
| 28-Jun | General population (11+) | 47 (44 - 51) | 35 (31 - 39) | <100 | 184 | |
| Obsessive compulsive disorder | 26-Apr | General population (11+) | 29 (27 - 31) | 22 (19 - 24) | <10 | <100 |
| 28-Jun | General population (11+) | 30 (28 - 33) | 25 (23 - 29) | <10 | <100 | |
| Self-harm | 26-Apr | General population (11+) | 217 (190 - 247) | 145 (130 - 162) | <100 | 307 |
| 28-Jun | General population (11+) | 254 (226 - 285) | 205 (184 - 228) | <100 | 870 | |
| Severe mental illness | 26-Apr | General population (11+) | 184 (173 - 196) | 155 (142 - 169) | <100 | 119 |
| 28-Jun | General population (11+) | 203 (192 - 215) | 172 (157 - 189) | <100 | 391 | |
| Cerebrovascular accident | 26-Apr | General population (31+) | 88 (83 - 94) | 56 (50 - 62) | <100 | 135 |
| 28-Jun | General population (31+) | 100 (93 - 106) | 73 (65 - 81) | <100 | 400 | |
| Transient ischaemic attack | 26-Apr | General population (31+) | 37 (35 - 40) | 26 (24 - 29) | <100 | <100 |
| 28-Jun | General population (31+) | 40 (38 - 43) | 31 (28 - 35) | <10 | 136 | |
| Heart failure | 26-Apr | General population (31+) | 279 (264 - 295) | 181 (167 - 196) | <100 | 408 |
| 28-Jun | General population (31+) | 308 (292 - 324) | 223 (205 - 242) | <100 | 1,240 | |
| Myocardial infarction | 26-Apr | General population (31+) | 45 (42 - 47) | 35 (33 - 38) | <10 | <100 |
| 28-Jun | General population (31+) | 47 (44 - 49) | 37 (34 - 41) | <10 | 123 | |
| Unstable angina | 26-Apr | General population (31+) | 5 (5 - 6) | 4 (4 - 5) | <10 | <10 |
| 28-Jun | General population (31+) | 6 (5 - 6) | 6 (5 - 7) | <10 | <10 | |
| Venous thromboembolism | 26-Apr | General population (31+) | 67 (63 - 70) | 64 (59 - 68) | <10 | <10 |
| 28-Jun | General population (31+) | 72 (69 - 76) | 63 (58 - 68) | <10 | <100 | |
| Asthma exacerbations | 26-Apr | People with asthma diagnosis (11+) | 4,636 (4,361 - 4,928) | 3,617 (3,320 - 3,941) | 1,020 | 3,780 |
| 28-Jun | People with asthma diagnosis (11+) | 4,254 (3,995 - 4,529) | 2,941 (2,643 - 3,273) | 1,310 | 14,100 | |
| COPD exacerbations | 26-Apr | People with COPD diagnosis (41+) | 7,863 (7,365 - 8,395) | 4,222 (3,768 - 4,730) | 3,640 | 14,400 |
| 28-Jun | People with COPD diagnosis (41+) | 6,594 (6,147 - 7,073) | 3,367 (2,919 - 3,884) | 3,230 | 43,900 |
Estimates of the difference between scenarios and cumulative difference have been rounded to 3 significant digits to avoid overly precise estimates.
We did not intend to estimate the exact number of “missed” consultations but obtained an estimate of the absolute indirect effect of COVID-19 on different conditions. If the expected difference was <100 or <10 then estimates have been censored for the same reason.
Abbreviations: CI: confidence interval. COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease