Table 1. Fixed and sampled parameters (distributions used for Latin Hypercube sampling).
| Parameter name (symbol) | Values | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Susceptibility of the ith age group to jth infection |
κexp = Unif (0.3, 1.25) κage = Unif(1/16, 1/3) |
κexp defines how the susceptibility to infection depends on whether it is the 1st, 2nd or 3rd infection κage: defines how the susceptibility to infection depends on age δ0: scaling constant, to ensure parameterisations have the same R0 |
| Seasonal forcing width (weeks) | Gamma(shape=10,rate=2) (minimum: 1, maximum: 14, median: 4.8) | Standard deviation of normal distribution defining the seasonal forcing (see SI Methods) |
| Seasonal forcing strength (maximum above baseline) | Unif(0.2,1.5) | Maximum level of seasonal forcing above a baseline of 1 |
| Baseline transmissibility (R0) | R0=Gamma(shape=14,rate=8) (Spencer et al., 2021) (min: 0.48, max: 4.14) | R0 value at the baseline level (1) of seasonal forcing |
| Waning rate (ω) | ω = 1/Norm(mean=350,sd=50) (Hodgson et al., 2020; White et al., 2005; Moore et al., 2014) | Rate of loss of immunity post-infection (1/day) |
| rate of recovery (γ) | 1/7 day-1 (Hodgson et al., 2020) | Rate of recovery from infection |
| birth rate | 2314 births/day (Deaths registered monthly in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics, 2022) | Number of live births per day |