Table 1. Posterior mean and 95% credible intervals of the model parameters in the SPM and the LMM fitted to the HERS data.

	SPM						LMM
	Longitudinal			Dropout			Longitudinal
	Mean	2.5%	97.5%	Mean	2.5%	97.5%	Mean	2.5%	97.5%
Intercept	−0.55	−0.75	−0.36	1.11	0.91	1.32	−0.57	−0.75	−0.38
Baseline HIV viral load
0–500	1.52	1.32	1.74	0.75	0.54	0.97	1.54	1.33	1.74
500–5k	1.02	0.82	1.22	0.63	0.44	0.83	1.03	0.83	1.21
5k–30k	0.47	0.26	0.70	0.26	0.05	0.47	0.48	0.26	0.69
30k+ (reference)
Baseline HIV symptoms	−0.02	−0.07	0.03	−0.01	−0.06	0.05	−0.03	−0.08	0.03
ART at baseline	−0.65	−0.77	−0.53	−0.22	−0.40	−0.04	−0.66	−0.77	−0.55
(j − 1)*	–	–	–	1.67	1.09	2.28	–	–	–
{(j − 1)*}2	–	–	–	−2.79	−3.41	−2.16	–	–	–
(j − 1)**ART at baseline	–	–	–	0.37	0.04	0.70	–	–	–
Time (visit)	−1.21	−1.59	−0.84	–	–	–	−0.91	−1.29	−0.54
Time*baseline viral load
0–500	0.59	0.21	1.00	–	–	–	0.37	−0.03	0.78
500–5k	0.53	0.15	0.91	–	–	–	0.35	−0.03	0.74
5k–30k	0.37	−0.06	0.79	–	–	–	0.25	−0.16	0.67
30k+ (reference)				–	–	–
Time*baseline HIV symptoms	−0.06	−0.15	0.04	–	–	–	−0.04	−0.14	0.05
Time*ART at baseline	0.21	0.01	0.40	–	–	–	0.25	0.06	0.43
corr(bi1, bi2)	−0.20	−0.29	−0.13	–	–	–	−0.23	−0.31	−0.14
var(bi1)	0.56	0.50	0.62	–	–	–	0.56	0.50	0.62
var(bi2)	1.24	1.07	1.44	–	–	–	1.12	0.97	1.29
${\sigma }_{ϵ}^2$	0.15	0.14	0.16	–	–	–	0.15	0.14	0.16
γ1	–	–	–	0.23	0.15	0.30	–	–	–
γ2	–	–	–	0.28	0.22	0.35	–	–	–