Figure 1.

Distribution of stage at diagnosis for (A) clinically detected lung cancer cases; (B) screen-detected cases; and (C) all cases in the United States between 2015–2040 in the absence of Low-Dose Computed Tomography screening and for three screening policies implemented in 2018. All policies assumed a constant 50% adherence to screening. USPSTF, United States Preventive Task Force recommendations, annually screening current and former smokers aged 55–80 with at least a 30 pack-years smoking history that quit fewer than 15 years ago; CMS, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services recommendations, annually screening current and former smokers aged 55–77 with at least a 30 pack-years smoking history that quit fewer than 15 years ago; Ontario, the most cost-effective policy from a study for Cancer Care Ontario, annually screening current and former smokers aged 55–75 with at least a 40 pack-years smoking history that quit fewer than 10 years ago.