TABLE 2.

Average mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of the forecasts of the epidemic evolution in Lombardia, Italy, obtained with the proposed algorithm, and with the SIR-fit and GSEIR-fit curve-fitting approaches, for different forecast horizons, that is, 3, 7, and 14 days. The uppermost table reports the average MAPEs computed over the interval from March 4 to June 16; the lowermost table reports the average MAPEs computed over the interval from April 1 to June 16.

Algorithm	3 Days (%)	7 Days (%)	14 Days (%)
Proposed	6.2	10.4	23.5
SIR-fit	77.5	115.3	225.8
GSEIR-fit	10.3	13.0	18.5
Average over the interval from March 4 to June 16
Algorithm	3 Days (%)	7 Days (%)	14 Days (%)
Proposed	3.3	4.9	9.4
SIR-fit	88.2	123.0	213.2
GSEIR-fit	11.6	13.6	16.8
Average over the interval from April 1 to June 16