. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 May 17.

Published in final edited form as: Stat Med. 2022 Feb 27;41(13):2317–2337. doi: 10.1002/sim.9357

TABLE 2.

Predicted cumulative cases and deaths (reported and total) of India along with observed counts and predicted under-reporting factors for cases and deaths in India across the two waves. The training period for the first wave was taken to be April 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021 with no testing period. Wave 2 training period was taken to be Feb 1,2021 to June 30,2021 with July 1,2021 to August 31,2021 as the test period. For both of the waves, reported numbers are based on the day just after the end of training periods.

		1^st Feb 2021	1^st July 2021
Cases	Predicted Reported (millions)	10.5 [10.4, 10.6]	30.9 [30.8, 30.9]
	Predicted Total (millions)	120 [115, 124]	452 [426, 466]
	Observed (millions)	10.8	30.4
	Under-Reporting Factor	11.1 [10.7, 11.5]	19.2 [17.9, 19.9]
Deaths	Predicted Reported (millions)	0.15 [0.148, 0.152]	0.393 [0.393, 0.395]
	Predicted Total (millions)	0.55 [0.54, 0.56]	2.2 [2.1, 2.2]
	Observed (millions)	0.154	0.399
	Under-Reporting Factor	3.58 [3.5, 3.66]	4.55 [4.32, 4.68]