Table 3.
Total and Per Patient Follow-Up (f/u) Time, Number, and Incidence Rate of PDAC per 1000 Person-Years (PY) and 95% Confidence Interval (CI)
| Patient characteristics | Total f/u time (y) |
Average f/u time (y) |
No. of PDAC events |
Incidence rate of PDAC/1000 PY (95% CI) |
Time to PDAC (days) (median, IQR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 88,550 | 1.9 | 370 | 4.2 (3.8, 4.6) | 96 (49, 294) |
| Age group | |||||
| 18–49 | 10,491 | 2.0 | 13 | 1.2 (0.7, 2.1) | 56 (40, 64) |
| 50–59 | 15,124 | 2.1 | 49 | 3.2 (2.4, 4.3) | 75 (46, 240) |
| 60–69 | 24,610 | 2.0 | 102 | 4.1 (3.4, 5.0) | 83 (45, 235) |
| 70–79 | 28,882 | 2.0 | 153 | 5.3 (4.5, 6.2) | 127 (57, 348) |
| 80–84 | 9443 | 1.4 | 53 | 5.6 (4.3, 7.4) | 123 (45, 325) |
| Sex | |||||
| Female | 50,083 | 1.9 | 168 | 3.4 (2.9, 3.9) | 103 (57, 319) |
| Male | 38,467 | 1.9 | 202 | 5.3 (4.6, 6.0) | 93 (42, 267) |
| Race/ethnicity | |||||
| Non-Hispanic White | 45,531 | 1.9 | 182 | 4.0 (3.5, 4.6) | 121 (52, 295) |
| African American | 10,134 | 2.0 | 60 | 5.9 (4.6, 7.6) | 82 (47, 141) |
| Hispanic | 23,639 | 1.9 | 93 | 3.9 (3.2, 4.8) | 107 (49, 403) |
| Asian/Pacific Islanders | 8303 | 2.0 | 34 | 4.1 (2.9, 5.7) | 65 (40, 118) |
| Unknown | 943 | 1.7 | 1 | 1.1 (0.1, 7.5) | 142 (142, 142) |
| Weight change in 1 y (kg) | |||||
| ≤−6 kg | 11,806 | 1.7 | 118 | 10.0 (8.3, 12.0) | 89 (44, 267) |
| >−6 and ≤−4 kg | 6989 | 1.9 | 43 | 6.2 (4.6, 8.3) | 78 (37, 232) |
| >−4 and ≤−2 kg | 10,588 | 1.9 | 43 | 4.1 (3.0, 5.5) | 141 (66, 454) |
| >−2 and <2 kg | 28,663 | 2.0 | 85 | 3.0 (2.4, 3.7) | 103 (57, 274) |
| ≥2 and <4 kg | 7515 | 2.0 | 17 | 2.3 (1.4, 3.6) | 132 (67, 308) |
| ≥4 kg | 8406 | 1.9 | 16 | 1.9 (1.2, 3.1) | 122 (68, 559) |
| Unknown | 14,582 | 2.0 | 48 | 3.3 (2.5, 4.4) | 67.5 (46, 137) |
| Family history of pancreatic cancer | |||||
| No | 85,761 | 1.9 | 339 | 4.0 (3.6, 4.4) | 94 (48, 286) |
| Yes | 2789 | 1.9 | 31 | 11.1 (7.8, 15.8) | 150 (53, 336) |
| Imaging features | |||||
| Single | |||||
| Calcification only | 19,363 | 2.1 | 22 | 1.1 (0.7, 1.7) | 131 (56, 412) |
| Duct dilatation only | 13,307 | 2.0 | 110 | 8.3 (6.8, 10.0) | 74 (42, 166) |
| Atrophy only | 19,711 | 1.8 | 32 | 1.6 (1.1, 2.3) | 249 (61, 518) |
| Cyst only | 18,377 | 2.0 | 41 | 2.2 (1.6, 3.0) | 120 (54, 333) |
| Pseudocyst only | 3315 | 2.0 | 10 | 3.0 (1.6, 5.6) | 117 (62, 229) |
| Two or more | |||||
| Calcification + duct dilatation (w/ or wo/ atrophy, cyst, pseudocyst) | 2193 | 1.8 | 27 | 12.3 (8.4, 18.0) | 99 (44, 454) |
| Calcification + any 1 or more of (atrophy, cyst or pseudocyst) | 3695 | 1.8 | 8 | 2.2 (1.1,4.3) | 297 (125, 519) |
| Duct dilatation + any 1 or more of (atrophy, cyst or pseudocyst) | 3952 | 1.6 | 99 | 25.1 (20.5, 30.6) | 78 (43, 204) |
| Any 2 or more of (atrophy, cyst, pseudocyst) | 4636 | 2.1 | 21 | 4.5 (3.0, 7.0) | 294 (69, 530) |
| ALP values at baseline | |||||
| ≤125 | 53,696 | 1.9 | 193 | 3.6 (3.1, 4.1) | 118 (56, 307) |
| >125 | 7610 | 1.7 | 117 | 15.4 (12.8, 18.5) | 68 (43, 145) |
| Unknown | 27,244 | 2.0 | 60 | 2.2 (1.7, 2.8) | 120 (46, 446) |
| Lipase values at baseline | |||||
| <60 | 35,442 | 1.8 | 139 | 3.9 (3.3, 4.6) | 102 (49, 333) |
| [60, 180] | 4422 | 1.8 | 48 | 10.9 (8.2, 14.4) | 69 (41, 250) |
| ≥180 | 2561 | 1.9 | 55 | 21.5 (16.4, 28.1) | 91 (52, 178) |
| Unknown | 46,125 | 2.0 | 128 | 2.8 (2.3, 3.3) | 112 (49, 345) |
| Total bilirubin values at baseline | |||||
| ≤1 | 46,501 | 1.9 | 179 | 3.8 (3.3, 4.5) | 111 (56, 279) |
| >1 | 14,901 | 1.8 | 129 | 8.7 (7.3, 10.3) | 71 (44, 232) |
| Unknown | 27,148 | 2.1 | 62 | 2.3 (1.8, 2.9) | 103 (44, 438) |
| HbA1c values at baseline | |||||
| <6.5% | 30,601 | 1.8 | 113 | 3.7 (3.1, 4.4) | 107 (52, 342) |
| 6.5%–6.9% | 6745 | 1.9 | 33 | 4.9 (3.5, 6.9) | 76 (41, 200) |
| 7%–7.4% | 4680 | 1.9 | 26 | 5.6 (3.8, 8.2) | 79 (43, 294) |
| ≥7.5% | 9956 | 1.8 | 78 | 7.8 (6.3, 9.8) | 103(54, 317) |
| Unknown | 36,567 | 2.1 | 120 | 3.3 (2.7, 3.9) | 97 (48.5, 269.5) |
| ALT change within 1 y prior | |||||
| <−5 | 8322 | 1.9 | 28 | 3.4 (2.3, 4.9) | 147 (66, 344) |
| [−5, 5] | 20,194 | 2.0 | 69 | 3.4 (2.7, 4.3) | 146 (54, 357) |
| ≥5 | 11,351 | 1.9 | 78 | 6.9 (5.5, 8.6) | 73 (40, 182) |
| Unknown | 48,683 | 1.9 | 195 | 4.0 (3.5, 4.6) | 94 (52, 295) |
| Abdominal pain within 6 mo | |||||
| No | 58,503 | 1.9 | 195 | 3.3 (2.9, 3.8) | 143 (57, 403) |
| Yes | 30,047 | 1.9 | 175 | 5.8 (5.0, 6.8) | 75 (43, 190) |
| Dyspepsia within 6 mo | |||||
| No | 85,695 | 1.9 | 345 | 4.0 (3.6, 4.5) | 102 (49, 300) |
| Yes | 2855 | 2.0 | 25 | 8.8 (5.9, 13.0) | 59 (44, 163) |
| Malaise/fatigue | |||||
| No | 40,301 | 2.0 | 186 | 4.6 (4.0, 5.3) | 87 (48, 294) |
| Yes | 48,249 | 1.8 | 184 | 3.8 (3.3, 4.4) | 103 (50, 290) |
| Weight loss | |||||
| No | 66,058 | 2.0 | 244 | 3.7 (3.3, 4.2) | 93 (52, 285) |
| Yes | 22,492 | 1.8 | 126 | 5.6 (4.7, 6.7) | 110 (45, 307) |
ALP, alkaline phosphatase; ALT, Alanine transaminase.