Table 1.

Socio-economic, environmental and ecological correlates of EID events

Pathogen type Number of EID event grid cells	Zoonotic: wildlife 147–156		Zoonotic: non-wildlife 49–53
	b	B	b	B
log(JID articles)	0.34–0.37***	1.41–1.45	0.40–0.49***	1.49–1.63
log[human pop. density (persons per km2)]	0.56–0.64***	1.75–1.90	0.88–1.06***	2.41–2.89
Human pop. growth (change in persons per km2,1990–2000)†	0.09–0.45	1.09–1.56	0.86–1.31**	2.37–3.71
Latitude (decimal degrees)	0.002–0.017	1.00–1.02	0.024–0.040*	1.02–1.04
Rainfall (mm)	(0.14–0.06)×10−3	1.00–1.00	(0.32–0.57)×10−3#	1.00–1.00
Wildlife host richness	0.008–0.013**	1.01–1.01	−0.015 to–0.003	0.99–1.00
Constant	−9.81 to–8.78***		−13.84 to–11.73***
Pathogen type Number of EID event grid cells	Drug-resistant 59–64		Vector-borne 81–88
	b	B	b	B
log(JID articles)	0.46–0.53***	1.62–1.71	0.17–0.21***	1.18–1.23
log[human pop. density (persons per km2)]	1.03–1.27***	2.87–3.92	0.41–0.49***	1.51–1.63
Human pop. growth (change in persons per km2, 1990–2000)†	1.21–1.70***	2.73–5.06	−0.08 to 0.31	0.93–1.37
Latitude (decimal degrees)	0.047–0.072**	1.04–1.07	−0.015 to 0.002	0.98–1.00
Rainfall (mm)	(0.35–0.61)×10−3*	1.00–1.00	(0.10–0.28)×10−3s	1.00–1.00
Wildlife host richness	(−0.01 to 0.16)×10−2	1.00–1.02	(0.28–0.74)×10−2	1.00–1.01
Constant	−17.45 to–14.41***		−8.21 to–7.53***

Columns represent multivariable logistic regressions for EID events split according to the type of pathogen responsible. Numbers represent the range of values obtained from 10 random draws of the possible grid squares, where b represents the regression coefficients and B represents the odds ratio for the independent variables in the model. Higher odds ratios indicate that variable value increases have a higher likelihood of being associated with an EID event; probability value equals the median probability from 10 random draws of the possible grid squares where

^***P< 0.001,

^**P< 0.01,

^*P< 0.05,

^#P< 0.1. Results from each random draw are shown in Supplementary Table 3.

^†See Methods for details.