Table 3.
Percentiles of the time of symptom onset and dispersion for disease distributions
| Estimate (95% CI) of time of symptom onset (days)* |
Dispersion (95% CI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th percentile | 25th percentile | 50th percentile (median) | 75th percentile | 95th percentile | ||
| Adenovirus | .. | 4-8 (4-0-5-5) | 5-6 (4-8-6-3) | 6-5 (5-6-7-4) | .. | 1-26 (1-13-1-38) |
| Human coronavirus† | .. | 2-9 (2-5-3-3) | 3-2 (2-8-3-7) | 3-5 (3-1-4-2) | .. | 1-15 (1-07-1-34) |
| SARS-associated Coronavirus | 1-5 (1-2-1-7) | 2-7 (2-3-3-0) | 4-0 (3-6-4-4) | 5-9 (5-3-6-6) | 10-6 (8-9-12-2) | 1-81 (1-67-1-95) |
| Influenza A‡ | 0-7 (0-6-0-8) | 1-1 (1-0-1-2) | 1-4 (1-3-1-5) | 1-9 (1-7-2-1) | 2-8 (2-5-3-2) | 1-51 (1-43-1-60) |
| Influenza B | 0-3 (0-2-0-3) | 0-4 (0-4-0-5) | 0-6 (0-5-0-6) | 0-7 (0-7-0-8) | 1-1 (0-9-1-3) | 1-51 (1-37-1-64) |
| Measles | 8-9 (8-1-9-8) | 10-9 (10-2-11-6) | 12-5 (11-8-13-3) | 14-4 (13-5-15-3) | 17-7 (16-1-19-2) | 1-23 (1-18-1-28) |
| Parainfluenza | .. | 2-1 (1-6-2-6) | 2-6 (2-1-3-1) | 3-2 (2-5-3-8) | .. | 1-35 (1-16-1-55) |
| Respiratory syncytial virus | 3-1 (2-5-3-8) | 3-8 (3-3-4-4) | 4-4 (3-9-4-9) | 5-1 (4-5-5-7) | 6-3 (5-2-7-3) | 1-24 (1-13-1-35) |
| Rhinovirus | 0-8 (0-4-1-2) | 1-3 (0-9-1-8) | 1-9 (1-4-2-4) | 2-7 (2-3-4) | 4-5 (2-9-6-2) | 1-68 (1-36-2-01) |
*
Based on a log-normal distribution of the incubation period; 5th and 95th percentiles are not presented for viruses with fewer than 20 observations.
†
Bayesian methods were used for the estimation of the human coronavirus incubation period.
‡
The estimate for influenza A includes one experimental study with substantially different results from the rest;41 if this study is excluded, we estimate the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles to be 1-4 (1-2-1-5), 1-7 (1-5-1-8), 1-9 (1-8-2-0), 2-2 (2-1-2-3), and 2-7 (2-4-2-9), respectively, with dispersion of 1-23 (1-17-1-29). SARS=severe acute respiratory syndrome.