Table 2.
Unadjusted and adjusted estimates of attrition at one-year and ever after second-line initiation among patients at four public-sector HIV treatment facilities in Johannesburg, South Africa.
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| At one-year after second-line initiation (n=1150)1 | Ever after second-line initiation (n=318)2 | |||||
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| Characteristic | Dead or LTF/N (%) | Unadjusted HR (95% CI) | Adjusted HR (95% CI) | Dead or LTF/N (%) | Unadjusted HR (95% CI) | Adjusted HR (95% CI) |
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| Year of second-line initiation | ||||||
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| 2005/06 | 8/68 (11.8%) | Reference | Reference | 27/68 (39.7%) | Reference | Reference |
| 2007/08 | 39/250 (15.6%) | 1.36 (0.64 – 2.91) | 1.47 (0.68 – 3.18) | 117/250 (46.8%) | 1.51 (0.98 – 2.33) | 1.64 (1.04 – 2.60) |
| 2009/10 | 30/251 (12.0%) | 1.09 (0.50 – 2.38) | 1.11 (0.48 – 2.57) | – | – | – |
| 2011/12/13 | 68/581 (11.7%) | 1.03 (0.50 – 2.15) | 0.77 (0.27 – 2.16) | – | – | – |
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| Sex | ||||||
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| Male | 69/460 (15.0%) | Reference | Reference | 67/122 (54.9%) | Reference | Reference |
| Female | 76/690 (11.0%) | 0.74 (0.54 – 1.03) | 0.89 (0.61 – 1.30) | 77/196 (39.3%) | 0.75 (0.54 – 1.04) | 0.73 (0.49 – 1.08) |
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| Age at initiation | ||||||
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| <30 | 33/180 (18.3%) | Reference | Reference | 33/54 (61.1%) | Reference | Reference |
| 30–34 | 33/245 (13.5%) | 0.72 (0.44 – 1.17) | 0.77 (0.47 – 1.27) | 35/82 (42.7%) | 0.58 (0.36 – 0.93) | 0.59 (0.36 – 0.99) |
| 35–39 | 20/256 (7.8%) | 0.40 (0.23 – 0.70) | 0.41 (0.23 – 0.73) | 26/63 (41.3%) | 0.52 (0.31 – 0.88) | 0.52 (0.30 – 0.91) |
| 40–44 | 24/207 (11.6%) | 0.61 (0.36 – 1.02) | 0.61 (0.35 – 1.06) | 25/60 (41.7%) | 0.47 (0.28 – 0.79) | 0.49 (0.28 – 0.85) |
| ≥45 | 35/262 (13.4%) | 0.70 (0.44 – 1.13) | 0.76 (0.46 – 1.26) | 25/59 (42.4%) | 0.55 (0.33 – 0.93) | 0.48 (0.27 – 0.84) |
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| Viral load (copies/ml) | ||||||
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| <5000 | 29/319 (9.1%) | Reference | Reference | 30/81 (37.0%) | Reference | Reference |
| 5000 – 9999 | 22/158 (13.9%) | 1.59 (0.91 – 2.77) | 1.50 (0.85 – 2.64) | 27/56 (48.2%) | 1.73 (1.03 – 2.91) | 1.91 (1.12 – 3.28) |
| 10000 – 49999 | 34/337 (10.1%) | 1.12 (0.68 – 1.84) | 1.00 (0.60 – 1.67) | 42/102 (41.2%) | 1.22 (0.76 – 1.95) | 1.11 (0.68 – 1.81) |
| 50000 – 99999 | 17/122 (13.9%) | 1.59 (0.87 – 2.90) | 1.55 (0.84 – 2.87) | 12/26 (46.2%) | 1.47 (0.75 – 2.87) | 1.39 (0.70 – 2.74) |
| ≥100000 | 43/214 (20.1%) | 2.36 (1.47 – 3.78) | 1.85 (1.08 – 3.18) | 33/53 (62.3%) | 2.17 (1.32 – 3.56) | 1.64 (0.94 – 2.88) |
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| CD4 count (cells/mm3) | ||||||
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| <50 | 26/121 (21.5%) | 2.19 (1.38 – 3.46) | 1.43 (0.83 – 2.46) | 20/31 (64.5%) | 2.18 (1.30 – 3.64) | 1.85 (1.03 – 3.32) |
| 50–99 | 14/112 (12.5%) | 1.21 (0.68 – 2.17) | 0.78 (0.42 – 1.47) | 22/37 (59.5%) | 1.57 (0.95 – 2.57) | 1.33 (0.77 – 2.32) |
| 100–199 | 44/323 (13.6%) | 1.35 (0.92 – 1.99) | 1.16 (0.77 – 1.75) | 48/108 (44.4%) | 1.24 (0.84 – 1.83) | 1.22 (0.80 – 1.86) |
| ≥200 | 61/594 (10.3%) | Reference | Reference | 54/142 (38.0%) | Reference | Reference |
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| Co-infected with tuberculosis | ||||||
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| No | 134/1109 (12.1%) | Reference | Reference | 141/313 (45.1%) | Reference | Reference |
| Yes | 11/41 (26.8%) | 2.41 (1.31 – 4.46) | 2.11 (1.11 – 4.01) | 3/5 (60.0%) | 1.35 (0.43 – 4.23) | 0.98 (0.29 – 3.27) |
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| BMI | ||||||
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| <18.5 | 15/66 (22.7%) | 1.66 (0.96 – 2.88) | 1.66 (0.94 – 2.92) | 15/22 (68.2%) | 1.71 (0.98 – 2.97) | 1.31 (0.72 – 2.38) |
| 18.5–24.9 | 83/568 (14.6%) | Reference | Reference | 76/154 (49.4%) | Reference | Reference |
| 25–29.9 | 34/315 (10.8%) | 0.72 (0.49 – 1.08) | 0.83 (0.55 – 1.25) | 32/89 (36.0%) | 0.65 (0.43 – 0.99) | 0.69 (0.45 – 1.05) |
| ≥30 | 13/201 (6.5%) | 0.42 (0.24 – 0.76) | 0.47 (0.26 – 0.87) | 21/53 (39.6%) | 0.70 (0.43 – 1.14) | 0.81 (0.48 – 1.39) |
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| Anaemia3 | ||||||
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| None | 82/670 (12.2%) | Reference | Reference | 84/195 (43.1%) | Reference | Reference |
| Mild | 38/279 (13.6%) | 1.14 (0.78 – 1.68) | 0.97 (0.65 – 1.45) | 28/68 (41.2%) | 1.00 (0.65 – 1.54) | 0.90 (0.57 – 1.41) |
| Moderate | 23/187 (12.3%) | 1.03 (0.65 – 1.64) | 0.82 (0.49 – 1.37) | 28/49 (57.1%) | 1.64 (1.07 – 2.52) | 1.43 (0.87 – 2.34) |
| Severe | 2/14 (14.3%) | 1.16 (0.29 – 4.73) | 0.98 (0.23 – 4.08) | 4/6 (66.7%) | 1.86 (0.68 – 5.07) | 1.42 (0.48 – 4.18) |
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| First ART regimen | ||||||
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| TDF-3TC-EFV | 32/196 (16.3%) | 1.44 (0.96 – 2.15) | 1.57 (0.86 – 2.88) | – | – | – |
| d4T-3TC-EFV | 93/781 (11.9%) | Reference | Reference | 123/276 (44.6%) | Reference | Reference |
| Other4 | 20/173 (11.6%) | 0.99 (0.61 – 1.61) | 1.13 (0.68 – 1.88) | 21/42 (50.0%) | 1.11 (0.70 – 1.77) | 1.07 (0.64 – 1.79) |
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| Second-line ART regimen | ||||||
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| TDF-3TC/EMT-LPVr5 | 36/350 (10.3%) | 0.75 (0.50 – 1.13) | 1.21 (0.61 – 2.42) | 4/5 (80.0%) | – | – |
| AZT-3TC-LPVr | 46/335 (13.7%) | 1.03 (0.70 – 1.51) | 1.16 (0.50 – 2.70) | 0/1 (0%) | – | – |
| AZT-ddI-LPVr | 63/465 (13.6%) | Reference | Reference | 140/312 (44.9%) | – | – |
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1
One-year analyses include all patients with complete covariate information
2
Final analyses included only those patients who initiated second-line ART between 2005 and 2008 and had complete covariate information
3
None: males: ≥13 g/dL, females: ≥12 g/dL; Mild: males: 11–12 g/dL, females: 11–11.9 g/dL; Moderate: 8–10 g/dL; Severe: <8 g/dL
4
Other regimens include: AZT-3TC-NVP/EFV, d4T-3TC-NVP, TDF-3TC-NVP, TDF-EMT-EFV
5
11 patients initiated TDF-EMT-LPVr