Table 1.
The estimated transmission risks from either adults or children to adults or children with or without symptoms.
| Symptoms | Path‡ | Risk without Symptoms | Risk with Symptoms | Absolute Risk Difference | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 95% CI† | Median | 95% CI† | Median | 95% CI† | ||
| Cough | C ⟶C | 0.12 | (0.0095,0.36) | 0.25 | (0.16,0.36) | 0.13 | (−0.12,0.29) |
| C ⟶A | 0.12 | (0.061,0.21) | 0.11 | (0.08,0.14) | −0.015 | (−0.1,0.054) | |
| A ⟶C | 0.23 | (0.07,0.47) | 0.091 | (0.034,0.19) | −0.14 | (−0.38,0.041) | |
| A ⟶A | 0.06 | (0.019,0.13) | 0.076 | (0.045,0.12) | 0.016 | (−0.057,0.072) | |
|
| |||||||
| Cough with Phlegm | C ⟶C | 0.071 | (0.006,0.23) | 0.28 | (0.19,0.4) | 0.21 | (0.032,0.34) |
| C ⟶A | 0.14 | (0.087,0.2) | 0.1 | (0.071,0.13) | −0.041 | (−0.11,0.022) | |
| A ⟶C | 0.12 | (0.037,0.24) | 0.13 | (0.045,0.27) | 0.017 | (−0.14,0.17) | |
| A ⟶A | 0.058 | (0.025,0.11) | 0.083 | (0.046,0.13) | 0.024 | (−0.035,0.082) | |
|
| |||||||
| Phlegm | C ⟶C | 0.065 | (0.0057,0.22) | 0.28 | (0.17,0.39) | 0.2 | (0.031,0.35) |
| C ⟶A | 0.15 | (0.088,0.22) | 0.1 | (0.073,0.13) | −0.046 | (−0.13,0.022) | |
| A ⟶C | 0.065 | (0.0091,0.18) | 0.17 | (0.073,0.32) | 0.11 | (−0.038,0.26) | |
| A ⟶A | 0.061 | (0.025,0.12) | 0.078 | (0.043,0.12) | 0.016 | (−0.047,0.075) | |
|
| |||||||
| Runny Nose | C ⟶C | 0.076 | (0.003,0.29) | 0.25 | (0.16,0.36) | 0.17 | (−0.054,0.31) |
| C ⟶A | 0.12 | (0.047,0.23) | 0.11 | (0.083,0.14) | −0.0078 | (−0.13,0.07) | |
| A ⟶C | 0.23 | (0.052,0.46) | 0.1 | (0.04,0.19) | −0.12 | (−0.38,0.064) | |
| A ⟶A | 0.061 | (0.019,0.13) | 0.074 | (0.044,0.11) | 0.013 | (−0.059,0.068) | |
|
| |||||||
| Sore throat | C ⟶C | 0.3 | (0.17,0.45) | 0.18 | (0.088,0.3) | −0.11 | (−0.29,0.059) |
| C ⟶A | 0.11 | (0.071,0.16) | 0.11 | (0.079,0.15) | 0.0013 | (−0.055,0.057) | |
| A ⟶C | 0.18 | (0.065,0.36) | 0.081 | (0.021,0.19) | −0.1 | (−0.28,0.053) | |
| A ⟶A | 0.085 | (0.043,0.14) | 0.062 | (0.033,0.11) | −0.022 | (−0.084,0.035) | |
†
Posterior medians of the estimated transmission probabilities with the corresponding 95% credible intervals (CI).
‡
The arrows indicate the transmission pathways of influenza A with the donor on the left and the inheritor on the right. C ⟶A would represent a child-to-adult transmission.