Table 1.
Age-, cohort-, and year-specific risk estimates for newly incident drinking (%) and their 95% confidence intervals. Data from U.S. National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (2002–2014; unweighted n=208,766 12- to 25-year-olds)
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22–23 | 24–25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Panel 1. Estimates using the age-at-assessment approach | |||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||||
| 2002 | 3 (2,4) | 8 (7,10) | 15 (13,17) | 22 (20,25) | 27 (25,30) | 28 (25,32) | 31 (27,35) | 23 (19,28) | 23 (17,29) | 43 (37,49) | 11 (8,15) | 5 (3,9) |
| 2003 | 3 (3,5) | 9 (7,10) | 15 (13,17) | 25 (23,28) | 25 (22,29) | 26 (23,30) | 31 (27,36) | 27 (21,33) | 27 (21,33) | 41 (35,48) | 17 (13,22) | 6 (4,11) |
| 2004 | 3 (2,4) | 8 (6,10) | 16 (14,18) | 23 (21,25) | 27 (24,31) | 28 (25,32) | 34 (29,39) | 26 (22,31) | 20 (15,26) | 43 (36,49) | 14 (10,19) | 2 (1,5) |
| 2005 | 2 (2,3) | 8 (6,9) | 15 (13,17) | 23 (21,25) | 27 (24,30) | 27 (24,30) | 30 (27,34) | 29 (25,34) | 22 (18,28) | 40 (34,47) | 11 (8,16) | 3 (2,8) |
| 2006 | 3 (2,3) | 7 (6,9) | 14 (12,16) | 20 (18,22) | 26 (23,28) | 29 (26,32) | 35 (31,38) | 31 (26,37) | 26 (20,33) | 39 (34,45) | 16 (11,21) | 4 (2,7) |
| 2007 | 3 (2,4) | 7 (6,8) | 14 (12,16) | 21 (19,24) | 25 (22,28) | 28 (25,31) | 32 (27,36) | 27 (22,33) | 23 (18,28) | 50 (43,57) | 14 (11,19) | 4 (2,7) |
| 2008 | 2 (2,3) | 6 (5,7) | 12 (11,14) | 20 (17,23) | 25 (23,28) | 24 (21,27) | 32 (29,35) | 29 (25,34) | 22 (18,27) | 45 (40,50) | 16 (12,21) | 6 (4,11) |
| 2009 | 3 (2,4) | 7 (6,8) | 12 (11,14) | 19 (17,21) | 27 (24,29) | 27 (23,30) | 33 (30,37) | 30 (26,34) | 26 (21,32) | 48 (42,54) | 17 (13,23) | 5 (3,8) |
| 2010 | 2 (1,3) | 6 (5,8) | 12 (10,13) | 20 (18,22) | 24 (21,26) | 23 (20,26) | 34 (30,39) | 27 (24,31) | 24 (19,30) | 56 (50,62) | 17 (13,22) | 5 (3,10) |
| 2011 | 2 (1,3) | 6 (5,8) | 11 (10,13) | 20 (18,22) | 23 (21,25) | 25 (22,28) | 27 (24,30) | 25 (21,30) | 21 (16,26) | 53 (47,58) | 20 (16,26) | 5 (3,9) |
| 2012 | 3 (2,4) | 5 (4,6) | 12 (10,14) | 17 (15,19) | 21 (19,23) | 23 (20,26) | 29 (25,33) | 27 (22,32) | 20 (16,25) | 50 (44,56) | 23 (18,28) | 4 (2,7) |
| 2013 | 1 (1,2) | 4 (3,5) | 9 (7,10) | 16 (14,18) | 24 (22,26) | 25 (22,28) | 29 (26,33) | 25 (22,29) | 19 (15,24) | 55 (48,62) | 19 (14,23) | 3 (2,6) |
| 2014 | 1 (1,2) | 4 (3,6) | 8 (7,10) | 17 (15,18) | 21 (19,24) | 24 (21,27) | 30 (25,35) | 23 (18,28) | 27 (22,33) | 53 (47,59) | 20 (16,26) | 5 (3,10) |
|
| ||||||||||||
| MAS1 | 2 (2,3) | 6 (6,7) | 12 (11,14) | 20 (19,22) | 25 (24,26) | 26 (25,27) | 31 (30,33) | 27 (26,29) | 23 (22,25) | 47 (44,51) | 17 (15,19) | 5 (4,5) |
|
| ||||||||||||
| Panel 2. Estimates using the age-of-onset approach | ||||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||||
| 2002 | 5 (4,6) | 10 (8,11) | 17 (15,19) | 23 (20,25) | 25 (23,28) | 28 (24,32) | 28 (25,31) | 17 (13,22) | 21 (16,26) | 43 (38,49) | 7 (4,10) | 4 (3,8) |
| 2003 | 5 (4,6) | 11 (10,12) | 17 (16,19) | 25 (22,27) | 23 (21,27) | 26 (22,30) | 29 (25,34) | 21 (17,26) | 27 (21,33) | 40 (33,48) | 11 (8,16) | 5 (3,9) |
| 2004 | 5 (4,6) | 9 (8,11) | 18 (16,20) | 23 (21,25) | 27 (24,29) | 28 (25,32) | 29 (25,33) | 21 (18,26) | 19 (14,25) | 43 (37,49) | 9 (6,13) | 2 (1,5) |
| 2005 | 4 (4,5) | 9 (8,10) | 18 (16,20) | 23 (21,26) | 26 (24,29) | 25 (22,28) | 30 (26,35) | 22 (19,27) | 18 (14,24) | 41 (35,47) | 5 (4,8) | 3 (1,7) |
| 2006 | 4 (3,5) | 10 (8,11) | 15 (14,17) | 22 (20,24) | 24 (22,27) | 28 (26,31) | 33 (29,38) | 21 (17,25) | 24 (19,31) | 40 (35,46) | 9 (6,15) | 3 (1,6) |
| 2007 | 4 (3,5) | 9 (7,10) | 17 (16,19) | 21 (18,24) | 25 (22,28) | 26 (22,29) | 30 (27,34) | 19 (15,25) | 20 (16,26) | 51 (44,58) | 8 (6,12) | 3 (2,6) |
| 2008 | 4 (3,5) | 7 (6,9) | 15 (13,17) | 23 (20,26) | 22 (19,25) | 25 (22,28) | 30 (27,34) | 21 (18,26) | 17 (14,21) | 47 (41,52) | 11 (8,17) | 6 (3,10) |
| 2009 | 4 (3,6) | 9 (8,10) | 14 (12,16) | 21 (19,23) | 26 (23,29) | 26 (23,29) | 33 (29,36) | 22 (18,26) | 22 (17,28) | 51 (45,56) | 9 (6,14) | 4 (2,7) |
| 2010 | 3 (2,4) | 8 (6,9) | 14 (12,16) | 22 (19,24) | 23 (20,26) | 23 (20,26) | 32 (28,36) | 21 (18,24) | 24 (20,29) | 57 (50,63) | 7 (5,10) | 4 (2,8) |
| 2011 | 3 (2,4) | 8 (7,10) | 13 (12,15) | 21 (19,23) | 23 (20,26) | 24 (21,27) | 26 (23,30) | 18 (14,22) | 18 (14,23) | 55 (50,60) | 11 (7,16) | 5 (3,8) |
| 2012 | 3 (2,4) | 7 (5,8) | 14 (12,15) | 18 (16,20) | 21 (19,24) | 22 (19,26) | 29 (25,33) | 20 (16,24) | 20 (16,24) | 51 (45,56) | 12 (8,17) | 3 (1,5) |
| 2013 | 2 (2,3) | 6 (5,7) | 11 (9,12) | 19 (17,21) | 22 (20,25) | 26 (23,29) | 27 (24,31) | 18 (14,22) | 21 (16,26) | 56 (49,62) | 9 (7,13) | 2 (1,5) |
| 2014 | 2 (1,3) | 6 (5,7) | 11 (9,12) | 18 (16,20) | 21 (19,24) | 25 (21,29) | 28 (24,33) | 17 (14,21) | 23 (18,28) | 56 (50,62) | 8 (5,13) | 4 (2,9) |
|
| ||||||||||||
| MAS1 | 4 (3,4) | 8 (7,9) | 15 (13,16) | 21 (20,22) | 24 (23,25) | 26 (24,27) | 30 (29,31) | 20 (19,21) | 21 (19,22) | 49 (45,52) | 9 (8,10) | 4 (3,5) |
1
MAS, meta-analysis summary.