Table 3.

Model-recommended colonoscopy strategies under alternative model assumptions evaluated in the sensitivity analyses

	Recommended Colonoscopy Strategies (Start Age –End Age - Interval)
Scenario	ER < 40	ER < 45	ER < 50
Base-Casea	45-75-10	45-75-10	40-75-10
Faster Adenoma Progression	40-75-10	40-75-10	40-75-10
Higher incidence only below age 50	50-75-10b	40-75-10	40-75-10
Different Incidence Rate Ratios
• 1.2	50-75-10	50-75-10	40-75-10
• 1.3	50-75-10	45-75-10	40-75-10
• 1.4	45-75-10	45-75-10	40-75-10
• 1.5	45-75-10	45-75-10	40-75-10
• 1.6	45-75-10	45-75-10	40-75-10
• 1.7	45-75-10	40-75-10	40-75-10
• 1.8	45-75-10	40-75-10	40-75-10
• 1.9	45-75-10	40-75-10	40-80-10
• 2.0	40-75-10	40-80-10	45-75-5
• 2.1	40-75-10	45-75-5	40-75-5
• 2.2	40-80-10	45-75-5	40-75-5
• 2.3	40-80-10	40-75-5	40-75-5
• 2.4	45-75-5	40-75-5	40-75-5

Colonoscopy strategies are described by: Age to start screening – Age to stop screening – screening interval. Efficiency Ratio (ER) thresholds of 40, 45 and 50 colonoscopies per life-year gained were evaluated.

^aIn our Base-Case analyses, we assumed an Incidence Rate Ratio of 1.591 and we assumed that the higher incidence was caused by an increase in adenoma onset instead of faster adenoma progression. Furthermore, we assumed that the current generation of 40-year-olds will carry forward escalated disease risk as they age.

^b50-75-10 had an ER of 40.7; it was the strategy with the lowest ER among the strategies that met the LYG criterion.