Table 2. Effects of Individual Interventions over Ten Years.
| Mean Changea Compared to the Status Quo | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intervention | Discounted Net Present LYsb in Thousands (%) | Discounted Net Present QALYsb in Thousands (%) | Pill Deaths (%) | Heroin Deaths (%) | Total Opioid Deaths (%) |
| Acute Pain Prescribing | 500 (0.007%) | −450 (−0.007%) | −6,100 (−3.6%) | −1,900 (−0.6%) | −8,000 (−1.6%) |
| Prescribing for Transitioning Pain | 80 (0.001%) | 180 (0.003%) | −2,600 (−1.5%) | 1,500 (0.5%) | −1,000 (−0.2%) |
| Chronic Pain Prescribing | 40 (0.001%) | 670 (0.010%) | −24,400 (−14.2%) | 28,200 (8.2%) | 3,800 (0.7%) |
| Drug Rescheduling | −920 (−0.014%) | 990 (0.015%) | −103,800 (−60.7%) | 146,600 (42.8%) | 42,800 (8.3%) |
| PMP | −1,780 (−0.027%) | −1,450 (−0.022%) | −47,800 (−28.0%) | 90,200 (26.3%) | 42,300 (8.2%) |
| Drug Reformulation | 650 (0.010%) | 2,000 (0.030%) | −43,300 (−25.3%) | 39,400 (11.5%) | −3,900 (−0.8%) |
| Excess Opioid Disposal | 210 (0.003%) | 510 (0.008%) | −7,900 (−4.6%) | 5,500 (1.6%) | −2,400 (−0.5%) |
| Naloxone Availability | 790 (0.012%) | 670 (0.010%) | −8,400 (−4.9%) | −12,700 (−3.7%) | −21,200 (−4.1%) |
| Needle Exchange | 210 (0.003%) | 180 (0.003%) | 0 (0.0%) | −5,900 (−1.7%) | −5,900 (−1.1%) |
| MAT | 560 (0.008%) | 940 (0.014%) | −2,900 (−1.7%) | −9,600 (−2.8%) | −12,500 (−2.4%) |
| Psychosocial Treatment | 440 (0.007%) | 650 (0.010%) | −1,600 (−0.9%) | −6,000 (−1.7%) | −7,500 (−1.5%) |
Abbreviations: MAT = medication-assisted treatment; PMP = prescription monitoring program
a
Ranges over the ten base cases are shown in Appendix Table 8.
b
Discounted to 2016.