Fig. 4.

Estimation of time-dependent parameters. The bands correspond to 85%/90%/95% posterior credible intervals, while the solid line denotes the median value. Dashed lines indicate at which dates specific NPIs were enforced/lifted. (A) Probability that an infected individual is detected and reported to the healthcare authorities before the virus is cleared from their system. The left plot shows such probabilities for symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals separately, while the right plot shows their weighted average, i.e. the probability that a generic infected individual is eventually detected. (B) Relative reduction in the number of infectious contacts due to NPIs and behavioural changes.