TABLE 5.
Predictive values of an HIV seroconversion based on various potential selection criteria for blood donation among HIV‐negative participants (n = 2008): Sensitivity (Sens), specificity (Spec), negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), and estimated proportion of those deferred.
| Selection criterion | Sens (%) | Spec (%) | NPV (%) | PPV (%) | Deferred(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 0 | 100 | 99.6 | NA | 0 |
| Single criterion (past 6 months) | |||||
| Two or more anal sex partners | 88.8 | 50.9 | 99.9 | 0.7 | 49.3 |
| Three or more anal sex partners | 73.6 | 65.6 | 99.8 | 0.8 | 34.6 |
| Six or more anal sex partners | 64.0 | 82.5 | 99.8 | 1.4 | 17.7 |
| One or more HIV+ sex partners | 35.0 | 86.3 | 99.7 | 1.0 | 13.8 |
| New anal sex partner | 57.2 | 48.4 | 99.6 | 0.5 | 51.6 |
| Chemsex a | 26.6 | 92.5 | 99.7 | 1.5 | 7.6 |
| Received money or drugs for sex | 17.1 | 96.2 | 99.6 | 1.8 | 3.8 |
| Given or received money or drugs for sex | 19.2 | 94.9 | 99.7 | 1.5 | 5.2 |
| Injection drug use (IDU) | 9.9 | 97.7 | 99.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Use of crystal methamphetamine during sex | 18.4 | 96.7 | 99.6 | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| Recent/current syphilis infection b (detected at visit) | 11.1 | 99.1 | 99.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 |
| Syphilis infection (self‐reported) | 7.0 | 97.8 | 99.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| N. gonorrhoeae infection (detected at visit) | 23.7 | 96.9 | 99.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| N. gonorrhoeae infection (self‐reported) | 3.5 | 93.8 | 99.6 | 0.2 | 6.2 |
| Composite criteria (past 6 months) | |||||
| IDU OR one/more HIV+ sex partners | 34.8 | 84.5 | 99.7 | 0.9 | 15.6 |
| IDU OR one/more HIV+ sex partners OR Recent/current syphilis infection b | 40.7 | 83.7 | 99.7 | 1.0 | 16.4 |
| IDU OR one/more HIV+ sex partners OR recent/current syphilis b OR six/more anal sex partners | 70.7 | 72.7 | 99.8 | 1.0 | 27.5 |
| IDU OR two/more anal sex partners | 88.7 | 49.3 | 99.9 | 0.7 | 50.8 |
| IDU OR two/more anal sex partners OR chemsex a | 88.6 | 44.9 | 99.9 | 0.7 | 55.2 |
| IDU OR two/more anal sex partners OR new anal sex partner | 100.0 | 37.6 | 100.0 | 0.5 | 62.6 |
| IDU OR new anal sex partner OR (two/more sex partners AND anal sex with at least one of them) | 100.0 | 30.7 | 100.0 | 0.6 | 69.4 |
| Adapted FDA combination c | 36.7 | 75.0 | 99.7 | 0.6 | 25.0 |
| HIRI‐MSM d score 11 or more | 88.1 | 47.2 | 99.9 | 0.7 | 53.0 |
| Adapted FAIR combination e | 100.0 | 35.2 | 100.0 | 0.6 | 65.1 |
Note: Partner or transactional sex (given or received) or diagnosis/treatment of syphilis or of gonococcal infection. The FDA combination also contains the following criteria which are not included in the Engage questionnaire: sex with someone who had multiple partners, who exchanged sex for money or who injected drugs and blood exposure related variables: acupuncture, tattoo, body piercing, and needle injury.
Crystal methamphetamine, GHB (gamma hydroxybutyrate), ecstasy/MDMA (3,4‐methylenedioxy‐methamphetamine), or ketamine in the 2 h before or during sex with at least one of the last five partners participants reported having sex with in the past 6 months.
Reactive anti‐treponemal antibody test and rapid plasma reagin titer of 1/16+ at baseline visit or new/reinfection at prospective visits.
Non‐prescription injection drug use or sex with an HIV‐positive.
Index based on age, non‐prescription injection drug use, condomless anal sex, number of sex partners, sex with HIV‐positive partners and crystal methamphetamine use.
Non‐prescription injection drug use or chemsex or syphilis diagnosis or gonococcal infection diagnosis or new anal sex partner or more than one anal sex partner. The PrEP use criterion was removed here to allow comparisons with other composite criteria listed in the table.