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. 2023 Apr 10;130(3):1255–1268. doi: 10.1177/00315125231169876

The Importance of Crowd Support and Team Quality to Home Advantage in Brazilian Soccer League First Division

Rodolfo A Dellagrana 1,2,✉, Renan F H Nunes 3, Rodrigo L P Silva 4
PMCID: PMC10107015  PMID: 37036779

Abstract

Our aims in the present study were to analyze home advantage (HA) and number of goals scored in consideration of the presence or absence of crowd support and the influence of team quality during the last 11 seasons of the Brazilian Soccer League first division. We analyzed data from 4162 matches played in the Brazilian Soccer League in seasons 2012–2022 (3563 matches with an audience and 599 matches without an audience). We calculated HA by comparing the number of points won at home as a percentage of the total number of points gained, and we also recorded the number of goals scored by home and away teams. For analyses, we divided the teams based on home and away matches, with and without crowds, and we classified teams into three ability groups, based on the points scoring percentage of the team at the end of the season. There was a HA in all seasons analyzed (i.e., home teams won more than 50% of the total points won at home); but in matches in empty stadiums, the HA was reduced significantly, compared to matches with crowd support (66.6% with crowd vs. 57.2% without crowd, p < 0.05). The number of goals in all seasons was higher for home teams than for away teams; however, away teams scored more goals in empty stadiums than in stadiums with crowd support (p < 0.05). The HA was greater in matches with crowd support than in matches without crowd support (p < 0.01), independent of the team’s ability level; but, top teams scored more goals than weaker teams (p < 0.01). In conclusion, in the Brazilian Soccer League, the HA and number of goals scored were affected by the presence or absent of an audience in the stadiums. While top teams scored more goals than weaker teams, the HA was lower without than with crowds, independent of team quality.

Keywords: soccer, professional teams, audience, COVID-19, performance

Introduction

Sport science researchers have shown wide interest in home advantage (HA) analyses in team sports (Alonso et al., 2022; Courneya & Carron, 1992; Gomez Ruano & Pollard, 2011; Nevill & Holder, 1999; Pollard & Gomez, 2007). The HA has been considered an important parameter in determining match results, especially for soccer games (Pollard, 1986). In general, the HA measurement has involved calculating the number of points obtained by home teams as a percentage of the total points gained within a Championship (Pollard, 1986; Pollard et al., 2008), with a percentage of >50% home team points necessary for there to be a confirmed HA (Pollard & Pollard, 2005).

The existence of a HA has been explained by factors such as crowd support, travel team fatigue, home team familiarity with the field, home team territoriality, home team referee bias, special tactics, and unspecified player psychological factors (Neave & Wolfson, 2003; Nevill et al., 2002; Pollard & Pollard, 2005). Of note, no isolated dominant factor has emerged to explain HA; however, home crowd support is certainly a popular presumed basis for HA (Pollard & Pollard, 2005). Crowd support effects on HA may depend on the crowd intensity, density, and size (Nevill et al., 1996; Pollard, 2008). An analysis of Brazil’s main soccer league could be helpful for further understanding the impact of crowd support on HA, perhaps particularly as influenced by the impact of COVID-19 on crowd presence during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Brazil, some studies have shown the HA for elite male soccer teams. Silva and Moreira (2008) showed a HA of 64.6% in first division for seasons 2002–2007. Almeida et al. (2011) observed HAs of 65% and 69%, respectively, for teams that played in first and second divisions in seasons 2003 to 2009. Fajardo et al. (2017) showed HAs in first (65.6%), second (64.7%), third (65.6%), and fourth (63.2%) divisions in seasons 2012–2016. Oliveira et al. (2020) analyzed first division of the Brazilian Championship in the 2017 season, and they observed a HA of 54%. However, no past investigators separately analyzed matches with and without an audience to discern the influence of crowd support, because crowds were present in all past seasons.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic affected sports schedules worldwide. To minimize spread of the coronavirus among players and fans, soccer matches were often played within empty stadiums (Santana et al., 2021). This circumstance enabled comparisons of matches played with and without the presence of fans in soccer stadiums. Ribeiro et al. (2022) investigated the effect of crowd support on the HA in Brazilian elite soccer teams, by comparing the 2018 and 2019 seasons (with crowd support) and the 2020 season (without crowd support). They observed a reduction in the HA for first division, and no change in the HA for second division. Similarly, Silva et al. (2022) observed a reduction in the HA in the Brazilian Soccer League (First Division) during the period when the stadiums were empty due to quarantine provoked by COVID-19.

Also in other soccer leagues, some investigators found a reduction in the HA when games were played without crowd support versus with crowd support (i.e., before the COVID-19 pandemic) (Santana et al., 2021; Tilp & Thaller, 2020). On the other hand, some other investigators did not find this change in the HA due to missing crowds (Almeida & Leite, 2021; Matos et al., 2021; Wunderlich et al., 2021). Apparently, in these circumstances, factors other than crowd support maintained the HA. According to Schwartz and Barsky (1977) the interaction of multiple factors may best account for HA, including crowd support, territoriality, and even the quality of the teams, since top teams are apt to win matches whether home or away.

Our aims in the present study were to investigate (a) crowd support influence on HA by comparing HA and number of goals scored in matches with and without crowd support; and (b) to investigate team quality influence on the HA, in the last 11 years of the Brazilian Soccer League first division. We hypothesized that the HA and goals scored at home would be smaller without crowd support than with crowd support (Ribeiro et al., 2022; Santana et al., 2021), and, conversely, the HA and goals scored at home would not change for top teams.

Method

Data Collection

We used public data, available at the official Brazilian Football Confederation (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol – CBF) (www.cbf.com.br) for analyses in this study, obviating the need for informed participant consent. These data referred to the Brazilian male professional soccer championship during the period from 2012–2022. During these 11 years, 36 teams participated in the first division of the Brazilian Soccer Championship (Campeonato Brasileiro de Futebol), with 20 teams participating in each championship edition, each playing 19 home matches and 19 away matches. Table 1 illustrates the number of matches analyzed, including matches with and without crowd support (i.e., matches without paying audience). Notably, we included matches without a crowd only in pandemic conditions, since prolonged detraining caused by the COVID-19 quarantine impaired physical performance in comparison with the traditional off-season in professional soccer players (Grazioli et al., 2020).

Table 1.

Matches Analysed in the First Division of the Brazilian Football Championship (2012–2022).

Season With crowd No crowd Total Matches Analysed
2012 380 0 380 380
2013 380 0 380 380
2014 375 5* 380 375
2015 374 6* 380 374
2016 379 1** 380 379
2017 377 3* 380 377
2018 380 0 380 380
2019 380 0 380 380
2020 0 380 380 380
2021 161 219 380 380
2022 377 3* 380 377
Total 3563 599 3800 4162
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Note: *Matches without audience before social distancing and **W.O, were excluded from analysis.

Data on wins, draws, and losses can help determine whether empty stadiums might affect match outcomes by influencing the HA. We analyzed goals scored per team with emphases on goals scored during games played at home and away. In addition, team ability was quantified for each team each season as the point scoring percentage of the team at the end of the season. For example, for a team that scored 80 points out of 114 total points (i.e., 38 matches per season * 3 points), team ability would be 80/114 = 70.2% (Alonso et al., 2022; Gomez Ruano & Pollard, 2011). Using two-step cluster analyses for determining team ability, the sample was divided into three groups based on the points scoring percentage of the team at the end of the season (Table 2).

Table 2.

Cluster Analysis Identifying Group Means for Team Ability Levels.

Low Ability Medium Ability High Ability
Team ability (%) 35.3 48.8 63.7
Sample size (n) 101 101 38
Proportion of samples (%) 42.1 42.1 15.8
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We calculated the home advantage by expressing the number of points won at home as a percentage of the total number of points obtained, sing the following equation: HA = (H/(H + A))*100, in which H refers to the number of points obtained in games played at home, and A refers to the numbers of points obtained in games played away (Pollard, 1986; Pollard et al., 2008).

Statistical Analysis

We verified the normality of the data distribution using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Data are presented as means (and standard deviations). We used the independent t-test to compare the HA of matches played with and without crowd support. We used the Mann–Whitney U test to compare goals scored at home and away in each season and to compare matches with and without a crowd. In addition, for the comparisons between matches played at home versus away and with and without an audience, we calculated the effect size (ES). We adopted Cohen’s criteria for the interpreting these analyses (>0.2 small; >0.50 moderate; >0.80 large; >1.3 very large) (Sullivan & Feinn, 2012). We performed two-way analyses of variance (ANOVAs) two-way (2 Crowd [with and without crowd] x 3 Ability Groups [Group 1: low ability; Group 2: medium ability; and Group 3: high ability]) to compare the HA and goals scored at home per team. All null-hypothesis statistical analyses were carried out using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 21.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA). For all statistics, we set significance level at 5%.

Results

We analyzed 4162 matches, in which 3563 were with an audience (3025 matches in 2012–2019 seasons and 538 matches in 2021 and 2022 seasons) and 599 (380 matches in the 2020 season, and 219 matches in the 2021 season). Table 3 presents the HA in the first division of the Brazilian Soccer Championship seasons from 2012–2022, indicating a HA in all seasons (i.e., points scored during home games were >50% of all points scored). Figure 1 shows that the matches played with a crowd present showed a higher HA than matches played without a crowd present (M crowd present = 66.6%, SD = 6.0 vs. M crowd absent = 57.2%, SD = 9.8; p < 0.05, ES = 1.24, large effect).

Table 3.

Home Advantage in the First Division of the Brazilian Football Championship (2012–2022).

Season Played Won Drawn Lost HA (%)
2012 380 183 105 92 63.8 ± 8.1
2013 380 184 108 88 64.4 ± 6.1
2014 375 195 90 90 65.8 ± 7.8
2015 374 197 88 89 65.5 ± 8.1
2016 379 202 94 83 68.4 ± 9.2
2017 377 166 101 110 57.9 ± 9.2
2018 380 203 110 67 71.4 ± 6.8
2019 380 184 98 98 62.8 ± 6.1
2020 380 171 108 101 60.3 ± 5.6
2021 380 174 113 93 61.4 ± 7.7
2022 377 167 108 102 60.2 ± 9.7
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Figure 1.

Figure 1.

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Home Advantage in the First Division of the Brazilian Football Championship (2012–2022): Comparison of Matches with and without Crowd Support.

Comparing matches with and without a crowd present, teams playing at home scored more goals than teams playing away, confirming the HA, independent from crowd presence. However, the number of goals scored by away teams increased significantly for matches without a crowd (Table 4), revealing an effect of crowd presence. Figure 2 shows that there was no significant correlation between the HA and goals scored per team when matches were performed with crowd support, however, without a crowd a significant correlation was observed (r = 0.349, p = 0.027) between the HA and goals scored (Figure 2). Table 5 presents the comparisons between the HA and goals scored per team with and without crowd support. No significant interactions were observed for the HA and goals scored at home per team. However, the HA was higher in matches with crowd support than matches without crowd support (F (1,238) = 15.173, p < 0.01, ηp2 = 0.061) independently of the team’s quality. Goals scored at home were higher with and without crowd support for teams classified as high ability places than for teams classified as medium and low ability; also teams classified as medium ability scored more goals at home than those classified as low ability (F (2,237) = 23.136, p < 0.01, ηp2 = 0.165). In addition, independently of team ability, the goals scored at home were higher in matches with a crowd in comparison to matches without a crowd present.

Table 4.

Goals Scored During Matches With and Without Crowd Support.

Condition Home Away p-value ES
Goals scored With crowd 1.43 ± 1.17 0.93 ± 0.96 <0.001* 0.46
No crowd 1.33 ± 1.09 1.05 ± 1.03 <0.001* 0.26
p-value 0.108 0.010*
ES 0.08 0.12
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Note: *Mann-Whitney analysis.

Figure 2.

Figure 2.

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Relationships between Home Advantage and Goals Scored per Team with (A) and without a Crowd (B).

Table 5.

Home Advantage and Goals Scored at Home Per Team During Matches With and Without Crowd Support, According to Team Ability.

Condition Low Medium High Crowd Ability Crowd*Ability
HA With crowd 67.4 ± 10.6 64.2 ± 8.9 61.1 ± 5.6 <0.01* 0.257 0.579
No crowd 58.0 ± 14.7 57.4 ± 10.9 56.5 ± 5.9
Goals With crowd 21.3 ± 6.2 26.6 ± 7.9 34.9 ± 9.6 <0.01* <0.01* 0.893
No crowd 15.1 ± 6.9 19.6 ± 9.3 27.0 ± 9.0
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Discussion

Our aim in the present study was to investigate the influence of crowd support on the HA in the Brazilian Soccer League First Division. We found that matches with crowds present (3025 matches in 2012–2019 seasons and 538 matches in 2021 and 2022 seasons) presented a higher HA than matches without crowd support (380 matches in the 2020 season, and 219 matches in the 2021 season). Previous studies showed similar results for soccer leagues in Brazil (Ribeiro et al., 2022), Germany (Santana et al., 2021; Sánchez & Lavín, 2020), and Spain (Sánchez & Lavín, 2020). During 11 years of the Brazilian Soccer League the number of goals scored was significantly higher for home teams compared to away teams; however, teams who played away made more goals increases when the stadiums were empty of crowds than when crowds were present. Therefore, this change in HA and goals scored by away teams provides an index of the degree to which the HA was influenced by crowd support. The HA was approximately 12.1% higher with a crowd present than without a crowd present, independently of the influence of team quality. Likewise, the number of goals scored per team was higher with a crowd present than without a crowd present, and teams classified as high ability scored more goals than those classified as medium and low ability, and teams classified as medium ability scored more goals than those classified as low ability, independently of crowd presence.

Pollard (2006) showed that the main European Soccer Leagues (last six complete seasons were in January 2004) presented HAs of 65.0% (France), 64.2% (Italy), 63.9% (Spain), 63.3% (Germany), and 60.7% (England). Similar results were found for the Brazilian League, in which the HAs were 65.0% (Almeida et al., 2011) and 65.6% (Farjado et al., 2017) in the 2003-2009 seasons and 2012-2016 seasons, respectively. Similarly, in our study, the HA in the Brazilian Soccer League in the last 11 years (2012 – 2022) was 63.8% (SD = 3.91%; coefficient of variation = 6.1%). As these results indicate consistent HA values in recent seasons of the Brazil Soccer League changes in the HA that occurred with empty stadiums due to pandemic conditions reflect that part of HA that is due to the presence or absence of crowd support.

The matches without a crowd occurred only in pandemic conditions (Table 1). However, prolonged detraining caused by the COVID-19 quarantine also influenced these results, as there was likely to have been a relative impairment in physical performance in this period in comparison with the level of physical performance readiness evident in a traditional off-season among professional soccer players (Grazioli et al., 2020). In addition, during quarantine, there was high variability among players in their individual experiences and conditions. There was then a need to train at home, varied family demands, and varied COVID-19 infection and infection concerns, among players. Therefore, the drop in the HA percentage from 66.6% in games with crowd support to 57.2% in games without crowd support (Large ES = 1.24, p < 0.05) may been due to a number of quarantine-related factors, as also shown in other Soccer Leagues (Sánchez & Lavín, 2020; Santana et al., 2021).

In Brazil, Ribeiro et al. (2022) found a reduction in the HA for First Division of the Brazilian Soccer League without crowd support in soccer stadiums. These authors used a different formula to determine the HA (Matos et al., 2020), in which the results could present positive or negative values, with a higher score indicating a greater effect of the HA. Thus, the HAs with and without crowd support found by Ribeiro et al. (2022) were approximately 96.9% (the mean value in 2018 and 2019 seasons) and 51.1% (the mean value in the 2020 season), respectively. In our study, the equation we used, developed by Pollard (1986) led to results that varied from 0% (no points won by home teams) to 100% (no points won by away teams), with 50% representing an equal number of points gained by home and away teams. Therefore, our results showed a decrease in the HA of approximately 10.6% in matches without crowd support compared to matches with crowd support. Similarly, in the Bundesliga (2019/2020 season) the HA decreased by approximately 10% when the matches were performed in stadiums without an audience due to the quarantine caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (Santana et al., 2021). Likewise, for several Europe Soccer Leagues, fewer points were obtained by home teams during matches without crowd support (McCarrick et al., 2021; Sánchez & Lavín, 2020). On the other hand, in other Soccer Leagues the absence of an audience due to quarantine did not affect the HA (Matos et al., 2021; Sánchez & Lavín, 2020; Vandoni et al., 2022; Wunderlich et al., 2021).

Although crowd support can be considered a critical factor related to HA (Pollard & Pollard, 2005), controversial results have been observed in the literature as some previous studies showed reductions in HA (McCarrick et al., 2021; Ribeiro et al., 2022; Sánchez & Lavín, 2020; Santana et al., 2021), while other studies did not find changes in HA without crowd support (Matos et al., 2021; Sánchez & Lavín, 2020; Vandoni et al., 2022; Wunderlich et al., 2021). The relationship between HA and crowd support should be clarified in the sport science area, since diverse factors influence the crowd support, such as the size, density, and intensity of the crowd, proximity to the field of play, territoriality, and distances travelled by away teams (Boyko et al., 2007; Nevill et al., 1996; Pollard, 2008).

The measurement of HA may be based on points, wins, or goal differences (Pollard & Pollard, 2005). Thus, in the last 11 years, home teams scored a higher number of goals per match than teams who played away; however, when the stadiums were empty due to quarantine the number of goals scored by away teams increased significantly (0.13 more goals per match), while home teams maintained the number of goals scored with and without a crowd. Similarly, Silva et al. (2022) observed that away teams presented increases in the number of goals scored per match without crowd support in the 2020 and 2021 (first 22 rounds) seasons compared to matches with a crowd in the 2018, 2019, and 2021 (last 16 rounds) seasons of the Brazilian Soccer League. For several European Soccer Leagues (England, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Austria, Denmark, Russia, and Switzerland) in normal circumstances home teams scored on average 0.29 goals more per match than away teams, but without crowd support this difference reduced to 0.15 (McCarrick et al., 2021). In the Bundesliga, goals scored, especially in the second half, decreased by on average 0.26 for home teams without crowd support, while for away teams an increase of 0.15 goals scored was observed in the second half (Santana et al., 2021). These results reinforce the impact of crowd support on home soccer team performance.

As mentioned, in the present study, home teams scored more goals per match than away teams; but, during matches with crowd support, teams with a higher HA did not score more goals than teams with a lower HA (r = −0.082, p = 0.272). On the other hand, for matches without crowd support, more goals per team were scored by teams with a higher HA (r = 0.349, p = 0.027). In the present study, away teams increased goals scored during matches without an audience, and similar results were found in Bundesliga, in which away teams scored more goals in the second half (Santana et al., 2021). In this way, home teams need to increase goals scored to win the match, and consequently maintain the HA. Therefore, teams who maintained high HA values in the pandemic circumstances probably scored more goals.

Independent of team quality (low, medium, or high ability), the HA decreased significantly without crowd support compared to matches with an audience (p < 0.05). Similar results were observed in the 1998 to 2007 seasons of the Brazilian Soccer League first division (Silva et al., 2010). Goals scored at home per team decreased for all teams (i.e., low, medium, or high ability) without crowd support. Beside the absence of an audience, it is worth noting that, during the quarantine provoked by COVID-19, soccer players were obliged to train at home, and they were prohibited from official play, leading to an impaired the match performance (Grazioli et al., 2020; Link & Anzer, 2022; Mohr et al., 2020). This factor may have negatively impacted the number of goals scored. In addition, teams classified as high ability scored more goals than medium and low ability teams, and medium ability teams scored more goals than low ability teams, regardless of crowd presence or absence. Likewise, Lago-Peñas and Lago-Ballesteros (2011) showed that top teams scored more goals than weaker teams in the Spanish Soccer League. Thus, weaker teams may not have been able to impose their pattern of play in home matches.

Limitations and Directions for Further Research

Our study observed only the impact of crowd support and team quality on HA. Future studies might also analyze the size, density, and intensity of crowd support, and the crowd’s proximity to the field (Boyko et al., 2007; Nevill et al., 1996; Pollard, 2008). Of note, other factors to separately explore in the HA analysis might include away team travel effects (Pollard, 1986; Pollard et al., 2008), familiarity with the stadiums and surroundings (Barnett & Hilditch. 1993; Pollard, 1986), referee bias (Endrich & Gesche, 2020; Nevill et al., 1996; Wunderlich et al., 2021), territoriality (Neave & Wolfson, 2003; Pollard, 2006), special tactics that away teams can use defensively (Page & Page, 2007), and other psychological factors (Pollard, 1986). Thus, although playing with empty stadiums (i.e., without paying audience) can affect the HA, other factors must be considered to understand the complex phenomenon denominated by home advantage.

Conclusion

In the last 11 years of the Brazilian Soccer League First division a home advantage (HA) was observed. We detected that HA, even in matches with and without crowd support. On the other hand, the HA was reduced significantly when the stadiums were empty due to quarantine imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. While home teams scored more goals than did away teams in the last 11 Brazilian Soccer League seasons, when no audience was present, the number of goals scored by home teams remained constant while the number of goals scored by away teams increased. Also, teams with a higher HA scored more goals during matches with empty stadiums. As expected, team quality, was an additional factor of importance. Top teams scored more goals than weaker teams, but team ability did not attenuate the reduced HA effect of missing crowds during the pandemic.

Author Biographies

Rodolfo A. Dellagrana is an adjunct professor at State University of Ponta Grossa, Brazil. He is professor at Graduate Program of Movement Science, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul. PhD in Physical Education from Federal University of Santa Catarina since 2018. Research interests are related to Sports and physical performances.

Renan F. H. Nunes is a physical trainer at Coritiba Foot Ball Club, Brazil. PhD in Physical Education from Federal University of Santa Catarina since 2019. Research interests are related to Sports and physical performances.

Rodrigo L. P. Silva is a scientific coordinator at Coritiba Foot Ball Club, Brazil. PhD in Physical Education from State University of Campinas since 2019. He has a large experience with soccer training.

Footnotes

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding: The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

ORCID iD

Rodolfo A. Dellagrana https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0446-2619

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