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. 2022 Jun 3;38(7):3451–3469. doi: 10.1002/qre.3143

Structure of bivariate Rayleigh proportional hazard rate model with its associated copula applied on COVID‐19 data

Wafaa Anwar Abd El‐Latif Hassanein 1, Marwa Moghazy Attia Seyam 1,2,
PMCID: PMC10128045  PMID: 37123988

Abstract

Visualizing the fatality of coronavirus is a very tricky point through the world. In this paper, a new construction via the proportional hazard rate model with Rayleigh marginal is introduced and applied on COVID‐19 data set. The statistical and reliability characteristics of bivariate Rayleigh proportional hazard (BRPH) distribution are derived. The copula dependence structure and its properties are studied. The point estimation of the marginal and dependence parameters is introduced via maximum likelihood, method of moments, and inference function for margins (IFM) method. A simulation study is carried out to examine the effectiveness and the performance of the parameter estimates. Finally, an application on COVID‐19 data is used in a comparison study between BRPH model and other constructed bivariate models. This application concerned with modeling the fatality on COVID‐19. Throughout the results of goodness‐of‐fit criteria, BRPH provides a better fit than different competitors constructed bivariate models which reflects its flexibility and applicability on modeling the fatality of COVID‐19.

Keywords: bivariate Rayleigh distribution, copula, COVID‐19, estimation methods, proportional hazard

1. INTRODUCTION

Construction of bivariate distributions has been a significant point of interest to statisticians. It mainly depends on the stochastic interpretation of the marginal distributions and the dependence structure via its copula. There are many techniques to build several bivariate distributions, see Balakrishnan and Lai. 1 Al‐Babtain 2 introduced a new extended Rayleigh distribution. In the statistical literature, the proportional hazard rate (PHR) model has a remarkable amount of devotion in constructing distributions. In 1953, Lehmann, firstly, introduced PHR model in univariate case for testing of hypothesis problem, which named Lemann alternatives. Its dual is called as the proportional reversed hazard rate (PRHR), which proposed by Gupta et al. 3

Several methods of bivariate distributions are constructed with its linked copula as Mazo et al., 4 Salleh et al. 5 and Sajid et al. 6 A new lifetime distribution with three‐parameter is proposed by a combination of Rayleigh distribution and extended odd Weibull family to produce the extended odd Weibull Rayleigh with applications of COVID‐19 data introduced by Almongy. 7

The PHR model is defined as

Gx=11Fxλ,x0,λ>0. (1)

where, F(x) is the baseline cumulative distribution and G(x) is the generated cumulative distribution by using PHR model.

There are more constructed models for PHR and PRHR in bivariate case; for example; Kundu and Gupta, 8 Mirhosseini et al., 9 and Sankaran and Gleeia. 10

Starting from the baseline univariate cumulative distributions F1(x) and F2(y),PHR model has been proposed in bivariate case as

Gλx,y=11F1xF2yλ,x,yRand0<λ1.

with the univariate marginal distributions

Gix=11Fixλ,i=1,2.

where λ is the dependence parameter.

This model studied when the baseline cumulative distributions are exponential distribution functions, which is known as bivariate Kumaraswamy type exponential distribution Mirhosseini et al. 9 and Bakouch et al. 11

Copula structure has been received a widespread attention to study the dependence structure of the bivariate distributions. In this sense, Kundu and Gupta 8 and Dolati et al. 12 have studied the dependence properties of bivariate distributions in PHR and PRHR models.

Rayleigh distribution plays a vital role in several areas of research such as magnetic resonance imagining (MRI), acoustics, reliability and survival analysis, in the field of nutrition and so on. Rayleigh distribution has an important characteristic of that its hazard rate is a linear function of time. Its survival function decreases at a much higher than its correspondence with exponential distribution. The probability function of univariate Rayleigh distribution is

fx;α=xα2ex22α2,x0,α>0

In the literature, the Morgenstern bivariate Rayleigh distribution is studied under identical parameters of the marginals, introduced in Akhter and Hirai. 13 The motivation of this paper is to introduce and study a new type of Bivariate Rayleigh distribution in PHR model and presenting some new constructed models of bivariate Rayleigh via different copula concepts, then compare between them and the proposed model via goodness‐of‐fit criteria.

This paper is organized as; first, the bivariate Rayleigh distribution in PHR model has been proposed. The statistical properties including the Joint PDF, the CDF, the survival function, moments, conditional moments, and correlation measures are included in Section 2. In Section 3, reliability measures are presented and discussed. Copula structure of the proposed distribution and its statistical properties are studied in Section 4. Point and interval estimations of the parameters are derived via several techniques in Section 5. In Section 6, a simulation study is proposed to study the behavior of different estimation methods. Finally, Section 7 offered an application on COVID‐19 to illustrate the potentiality of the proposed distribution compared with some other bivariate Rayleigh distribution.

2. BIVARIATE RAYLEIGH PROPORTIONAL HAZARD (BRPH) DISTRIBUTION

Let (X1,X2) be a bivariate Rayleigh random vector with scale parameters α1,α2 respectively and the parameter λ, which characterize the dependence parameter. Following Dolati et al. 12 idea of considering the Mittag–Leffler random variable, the bivariate proportional hazard rate Rayleigh joint PDF is defined as

gx1,x2;α1,α2,λ=λx1α12ex122α12x2α22ex222α2211ex122α121ex222α22λ21λ1ex122α121ex222α22 (2)

where, the PHR model with the baseline Rayleigh distribution

Fix=1exi22αi2,i=1,2.

Then, its univariate cumulative distribution functions are Rayleigh distributions

Gix=1exi2λ2αi2,i=1,2.

The corresponding joint CDF of (X1,X2) is

Gx1,x2;α1,α2,λ=111ex122α121ex222α22λ (3)

where x 1, x20,α1,α2>0,0<λ1

The joint survival function is obtained as

Sx1,x2;α1,α2,λ=ex12λ2α12+ex22λ2α2211ex122α121ex222α22λ

Using the binomial expansion Gradshteyn and Ryzhik 14

(1β)λj=0λj(1)jβj|β|<1 (4)

After some simplifications, the joint density function for the BRPH distribution (2) can be written as

gx1,x2;α1,α2,λ=j=1λj1j+1j2x1α12ex122α12x2α22ex222α221ex122α121ex222α22j1 (5)

Figure 1 shows two different shapes of the joint density functions of BRPH distribution with parameters (λ,α1,α2): (A)(0.8,1,1),(B)(0.5,0.7,0.8),(C)(0.2,5,0.4),(D)(0.5,0.1,0.2). It can be seen that the densities are right‐skewed and jointly unimodal.

FIGURE 1.

FIGURE 1

Surface plots of the joint PDF of the BRPH distribution for different values of (λ,α1,α2): (A)(0.8,1,1),(B)(0.5,0.7,0.8),(C)(0.2,5,0.4),(D)(0.5,0.1,0.2)

Proposition 1. For the random vector (X1,X2)BRPH(α1,α2,λ) then

  • (1)
    For r1,r21, the moments of (X1,X2) is
    EX1r1X2r2=j=1λj1j+1j2k=121αk2i=0j1j1i1i2rk21+iαk21rk2Γ1+rk2 (6)

and the Pearson's correlation coefficient of (X1,X2) is

CorrX1,X2=πj=1λj1j+1j2k=121αk2i=0j1j1i1i1+iαk232α1α2π4πα1α2 (7)
  • (2)
    The moment generating function of
    (X1,X2)
    is
    MX1,X2t1,t2=j=1λj1j+1j2k=121αk2i=0j1j1i1ietk2αk221+iπ(1+Erf2i+1αk212tk+21+iαk21221+iαk23αk2 (8)

where Erf(x)=2π0xet2dt is the error function.

Proof.

For part (1), using Equation (5)

EX1r1X2r2=j=1λj1j+1j2k=12IkXk,rk

where

IkXk,rk=0xkrk+1αk2exk22αk21exk22αk2j1dxkfork=1,2

By using the expansion (4), then

IkXk,rk=1αk2i=0j1j1i1i0xkrk+1exk2i+12αk2dxk

and 0xkrk+1exk2(i+1)2αk2dxk=2rk2(1+iαk2)1rk2Γ(1+rk2)

Hence, the expression for the product moment is proved.

For part (2),

MX1,X2t1,t2=Eet1x1+t2x2
=j=1λj1j+1j2k=12MkXk,tk
MkXk,tk=0etkxkxkrkαk2exk22αk21exk22αk2j1dxk

which consequently implies

MkXk,tk=1αk2i=0j1j1i1i0xketkxkexk2i+12αk2dxk

and,

0xketkxkexk2i+12αk2dxk=etk2αk221+iπ(1+Erf2i+1αk212tk+21+iαk21221+iαk23αk2

Some numerical values of Pearson correlation coefficient values are obtained in Table 1. It is noticed that at small values of the dependence parameter λ, the correlation coefficient is negative weak, then it changes to be positive tends to be strong positive correlation as long as λ approaches 0.5, then it declines till zero at λ=1 where the independency fulfills.

TABLE 1.

Correlation coefficient for some values of α1,α2and λ

α1 α2 λ
Correlation coefficient
0.01 0.01 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1
−0.62144 0.18439 0.86537 0.774582 0.30074 0
0.05 0.07 0.21 0.31 0.51 0.71 0.91 1
−0.52302 0.244949 0.875209 0.757469 0.271821 0
0.1 0.2 0.22 0.32 0.52 0.72 0.92 1
−0.52302 0.302241 0.883214 0.739467 0.24259 0
0.3 0.4 0.23 0.33 0.53 0.73 0.93 1
−0.33876 0.35635 0.889448 0.72061 0.21307 0
0.5 0.5 0.24 0.34 0.54 0.74 0.94 1
−0.25274 0.40736 0.893967 0.700936 0.18328 0
0.65 0.75 0.25 0.35 0.55 0.75 0.95 1
−0.17064 0.455356 0.896828 0.680479 0.153242 0
0.8 1 0.26 0.36 0.56 0.76 0.96 1
−0.09236 0.500417 0.898082 0.659272 0.122976 0
1.5 3.8 0.27 0.37 0.57 0.77 0.97 1
−0.01782 0.542626 0.897784 0.637348 0.0925 0
15.2 16.8 0.28 0.38 0.58 0.78 0.98 1
0.05309 0.58206 0.895985 0.61474 0.061833 0
50 100 0.29 0.39 0.59 0.79 0.99 1
0.120465 0.618796 0.892735 0.59148 0.0309942 0

The conditional density function of X2given X1=t is obtained in the form

gX2/X1=tx2=x2λα22e12α121λt2x222α22j=1λj1j+1j21et22α121ex222α22j1 (9)

Proposition 2. For the random vector (X1,X2)BRPH(α1,α2,λ), then the conditional moment of order r is

EX2r/X1=t=1λα22e12α121λt2j=1λj1j+1j21et22α12j1i=0j1j1i1i2r21+iα221r2Γ1+r2 (10)

3. RELIABILITY MEASURES

3.1. Stress–strength parameter

It is essential to take into account the stress–strength parameter in measuring the reliability of the operating systems. The system is reliable as long as the stress X 1 is less than the strength X2.

Proposition 3. Assuming that X 1 and X2 are jointly distributed as BRPH(α1,α2,λ), the stress–strength parameter R=P(X1<X2) is obtained as

PX1<X2=j=1λj1j+1ji=0j1j1i1ik=0jjk1kα121+iα12+kα22 (11)

3.2. The hazard rate function

The bivariate hazard rate is defined in several ways in the literature. One is due to Basu 15 as

hx1,x2=gx1,x2Sx1,x2

According to this definition, the hazard rate function for BRPH distribution is

hx1,x2=ex122α12x222α2211ex122α121ex222α222+λx1x2λ11ex122α121ex222α22λex12λ2α12+ex22λ2α2211ex122α121ex222α22λα12α22 (12)

Another point of view, Johnson and Kotz 16 define it in a vector form by the following rule

hx1,x2=lnSx1,x2x1,lnSx1,x2x2

Therefore, the hazard for BRPH distribution can be defined by

lnSx1,x2x1=eλx122α12+ex122α121ex222α2211ex122α121ex222α221+λλx1eλx122α12+eλx222α2211ex122α121ex222α22λα12

and, lnS(x1,x2)x2=(eλx222α22+ex222α22(1ex122α12)(1(1ex122α12)(1ex222α22))1+λ)λx2(eλx122α12+eλx222α22(1(1ex122α12)(1ex222α22))λ)α22

3.3. The mean residual life (MRL) and the vitality function

The MRL is defined as the average remaining time of the system after it has survived for a specified time t. Shanbag and Kotz 17 and Vaidyanathan and Varghese 18 defined it in a vector form as

MRLx1,x2=M1x1,x2,M2x1,x2

where

M1x1,x2=EX1x1/X1x1,X2x2
M2x1,x2=EX2x2/X2x2,X1x1

Hence, the MRL for BRPH distribution is

M1x1,x2=1Sx1,x2j=1λj1j+1j2I1I2x1 (13)

where

I1=i=0j1j1i1ie1+ix222α221+i
I2=i=0j1j1i1i2e1+ix122α12x1+2πα121+i12α12πErfx1α11+i2121+i21+i
M2x1,x2=1Sx1,x2j=1λj1j+1j2I3I4x2

where

I3=i=0j1j1i1ie1+ix122α121+i
I4=i=0j1j1i1i2e1+ix222α22x2+2πα221+i12α22πErfx2α21+i2121+i21+i

In the case of bivariate components of the system, the bivariate vitality function is related to MRL as

vx1,x2=v1x1,x2,v2x1,x2
vix1,x2=xi+Mix1,x2,i=1,2

and it can be calculated immediately.

4. COPULA STRUCTURE AND DEPENDENCE PROPERTIES

Copula is a way to construct bivariate models with a variety of dependence structures via Sklar's theorem Sklar 19 by solving the equation

CλF1x1,F2x2=Gx1,x2 (14)

For Cλ:[0,1]×[0,1][0,1]. Sklar's theorem supported us to present dependence properties of the BRPH distribution through its associated copula. The function Cλ(F1(x1),F2(x2)) can be written as Cλ(u,v) which u,v is a distribution function of Rayleigh distribution, which produces the following three equivalent equations associated with G(x1,x2):

Cλu,v=1111u1λ11v1λλ, (15)

or

Cλu,v=11u1v1u1λ+1v1λ1λ,

or

Cλu,v=11u1λ+1v1λ1u1λ1v1λλ,

for all u,v(0,1) and 0<λ1, which is one of the Archimedean family of copulas with strict generator ϕ(t)=ln[1(1t)1λ] for more detail see, Nelsen. 20

The density function of the copula is cλ(u,v)=2uvCλ(u,v), so the density function for the copula in Equation (15) is denoted by

cλu,v=λ1λ11u1λ11v1λ111u1λ11v1λλ2 (16)

Now several properties for G(x1,x2) in terms of copula Cλ(u,v) will be studied as concordance ordering, tail monotonicity, measures of association and symmetry.

  • Concordance ordering

For two copulas C 1 and C 2, we can say that C 2 is more concordant than C 1 (written C1cC2) if C1C2, for all u,v(0,1). The copula Cλ(u,v) given by Equation (15) is negatively ordered with respect to λ. A copula C is positively quadrant‐dependent (PQD) if ΠcC, where Π=uv is the product copula, for details see Nelsen. 20 As a result, a pair (X1,X2) distributed as BRPH is PQD, where Π=C1(u,v)Cλ(u,v).

  • Tail monotonicity

Let (X1,X2) be a BRPH continuous random variables whose associated copula is Cλ(u,v) given in Equation (15), then X 2 is left tail decreasing in X 1 (LTD(X2|X1)) where Cλ(u,v)uCλ(u,v)u for almost all u, and also X 1 is left tail decreasing in X 2 (LTD(X1|X2)) where Cλ(u,v)vCλ(u,v)v for almost all v, holds in I=(0,1). By routine calculations, we can obtain X 1 is right tail increasing in X 2 (RTI(X1|X2)) in I holds where Cλ(u,v)v[uCλ(u,v)](1v) for almost all v. If X 1 and X 2 are left corner set decreasing (LCSD(X1,X2)), then (LTD(X2|X1)) and (LTD(X1|X2)) holds see Corollary 5.2.17 in Nelsen. 20 The following flowchart introduces the relationship among several dependence properties for BRPH distribution

(LTD(X2X1))PQD((X1X2))(RTI((X1X2))(LCSD(X1,X2))(LTD(X1,X2))
  • Measures of association

Dependence properties and measures of association are interrelated so four nonparametric measures of association between a continuous random pair (X1,X2) will be introduced such as Kendall's tau (τ), Spearman's rho (ρ), Spearman's footrule coefficient (φC), and Blomqvist medial correlation coefficient (β), which depends only on the copula C and are given by

τ=40101Cu,vdCu,v1, (17)
ρ=120101Cu,vdudv3, (18)

Due to Dolati et al., 12 the following proposition is summarized

Proposition 4: Let Cλ(u,v) be a copula defined in Equation (15) then for every 0<λ1

τ=1+4λB2,2λ1Ψ2Ψ2λ+1,
ρ=912λ2j=01jλjBj+1,λ2,

where Ψ is the digamma function,

Moreover, Spearman's footrule coefficient φCcan be calculated after some integration as follows:

φC=601Cu,udu2,

Hence, φC=6[18λλB[12,2λ,1+λ]]2

The medial correlation coefficient for a pair BRPH (X1,X2) is defined as

MXY=PX1MX1X2MX2>0PX1MX1X2MX2<0

where MX1 and MX2 are medians of X 1 and X 2. Some numerical values for medial correlation coefficient are given in Table 2. Using the copula function, the medial correlation becomes Blomqvist medial correlation coefficient (β)

β=4C12,121,

TABLE 2.

Medial correlation associated with BRPH distribution for different values of λ

λ 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.1 0.15 0.2
Blomqvist medial correlation (β) 0.972 0.958 0.9295 0.886 0.857 0.783 0.709
λ 0.25 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.95
Blomqvist medial correlation (β) 0.6404 0.4569 0.4038 0.354 0.2243 0.1863 0.1506 0.0269

Therefore, β=3(21+λλ1)λ.

5. PARAMETER ESTIMATION

In this section, the estimation of parameters by the maximum likelihood estimation, method of moments, and the inference function for margins (IFM) method will be introduced based on random samples (x1i,x2i),i=1,2,,n from BRPH distribution with parameters α1,α2, and λ.

5.1. Maximum likelihood estimation

The log likelihood function logLfor the BRPH parameter vector Θ=(α1,α2,λ)Thas obtained as

logL=nlogλ+i=1nlogx1iα12ex1i22α12+i=1nlogx2iα22ex2i22α22+(λ2)i=1nlog11ex1i22α121ex2i22α22+i=1nlog1λ1ex1i22α121ex2i22α22 (19)

The maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by maximizing Equation (19) w.r.to the unknown parameters. The normal equations are given by

logLα1=i=1nx1i2α132α1+λ2i=1nex1i22α121ex2i22α22x1i211ex2α121ex2i22α22α13+i=1nex1i22α121ex2i22α22λx1i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λα13=0 (20)
logLα2=i=1nx2i2α232α2+λ2i=1nex2i22α221ex1i22α12x2i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22α23+i=1nex2i22α221ex1i22α12λx2i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λα23=0 (21)
logLλ=mλ+i=1n1ex1i22α121ex2i22α2211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λ+i=1nlog11ex1i22α121ex2i22α22=0 (22)

The previous equations are nonlinear with respect to the parameters and cannot be obtained in explicit forms, so it can be solved numerically using the initial guesses of the parameters. The initial value for the association parameter λ, say, λ^ can be computed using one of the sample estimates of Kendall's tau τn or Spearman rho ρn. Since τn and ρn cannot be calculated theoretically from Equations (17) and (18), the numerical solution could be used. Also, the initial estimates for the parameters α1 and α2 will be obtained by making the reparameterization: 1β12=λα12, 1β22=λα22. Since X1Ray(β1) and X2Ray(β2), the estimates β^1 and β^2 can be calculated based on the marginals and then put α^1=λ^β^12 and α^2=λ^β^22 as the initial estimates of α1 and α2.

Since BRPH is a regular family, the asymptotic normality results holds, that is, n(θ^θ)dN3(0,I1), where I is the Fisher information matrix. The observed Fisher information matrix is obtained (in the Appendix), which can be used to obtain the asymptotic confidence intervals of the unknown parameters.

5.2. Method of moments

Let the population moment for j th variate is μj=E(Xj),j=1,2, the sample moment and the sample joint moment are respectively mj=i=1nXjin, X1X2¯=i=1nX1iX2in.

The method of moments of marginal parameters α1,α2, and λ, say, α^1,α^2, and λ^ for BRPH distribution can be calculated by solving the following equations for the sample moment and the sample joint moment, respectively:

mj=EXj=αjπ2λ,j=1,2
X1X2¯=EX1X2=j=1λj1j+1j2k=121αk2i=0j1j1i1iπ21+iαk232 (23)

5.3. Inference function for margins (IFM)

IFM method introduced by Joe and Xu 21 are used for estimating parameters for multivariate models when each of the parameters either marginal of the dependent parameter of the model can be related with a marginal distribution. This method is computed by estimating the univariate parameters by maximizing their corresponding univariate likelihoods and estimating the dependence parameter by maximizing the bivariate likelihood, then the estimates, α^1,α^2, and λ^ are obtained by solving the following log‐likelihood equations. Let Lj, j=1,2 be the log‐likelihood function of X 1 and X 2.

logLjαj=2nαj+λi=1nxji2αj3=0
α^j=λi=1nxji22n11222,j=1,2 (24)

Then, using the Equation (22) for joint likelihood Equation and solving with Equation (24), the estimates can be found much easier. IFM method is simpler than other methods of estimation which estimating all parameters from the joint likelihood function.

6. SIMULATION STUDY

The simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the parameter estimates, which obtained via the mentioned parameter estimation methods. The simulation study was repeated 1000 times each with sample sizes; n=30,50,80,100 and the nodes are (α1,α2,λ)=(0.3,0.4,0.2),(0.4,0.1,0.5). Average bias and mean square error (MSE) of the parameter estimates are computed for each step. The results are given in Table 3.

TABLE 3.

Results of the simulation comparison study

n MLE method
MSE(α1)
Bias(α1)
MSE(α2)
Bias(α2)
MSE(λ)
Bias(λ)

Initials

α1=0.3,
α2=0.4,
λ=0.2
30 0.03596 0.17219 0.00446 0.00568 0.5807 0.6756
50 0.0329 0.17166 0.002373 0.010145 0.4634 0.6430
80 0.0298 0.1676 0.00129 0.013076 0.4068 0.621034
100 0.03021 0.1696 0.0008137 0.01398 0.39305 0.616357
MME method
30 0.006637 0.0783 0.04909 0.220514 0.0557 0.222

Initials

α1=0.3,
α2=0.4,
λ=0.2
50 0.00629 0.0772 0.04842 0.2194 0.0611 0.2409
80 0.00623 0.0778 0.0487 0.2203 0.0638 0.2491
100 0.0061 0.0770 0.0482 0.2192 0.0653 0.2534
n IFM method
30 0.005692 0.07382 0.04405 0.209302 11.0603 2.6705

Initials

α1=0.3,
α2=0.4,
λ=0.2
50 0.005588 0.07380 0.004415 0.209784 8.76662 2.35189
80 0.005426 0.07301 0.043767 0.208988 5.35891 1.83346
100 0.005446 0.07327 0.04398 0.20956 3.29645 1.509
n MLE method
MSE(α1)
Bias(α1)
MSE(α2)
Bias(α2)
MSE(λ)
Bias(λ)

Initials

α1=0.4,
α2=0.1,
λ=0.5
30 0.009708 0.0594 0.2178 0.3955 0.26405 0.29741
50 0.00738 0.0437 0.232 0.4287 0.2346 0.32976
80 0.00708 0.037 0.2306 0.4326 0.21108 0.3252
100 0.0062 0.0339 0.2276 0.4348 0.19213 0.31995
MME method
30 0.01474 0.116705 0.154039 0.391434 0.0014404 0.0379519

Initials

α1=0.4,
α2=0.1,
λ=0.5
50 0.013959 0.11501 0.155406 0.393614 0.014403 0.0379516
80 0.01388 0.116079 0.154887 0.393178 0.0144032 0.0379515
100 0.01357 0.114891 0.155785 0.3944 0.0140034 0.0379518
n IFM method
30 0.0101822 0.097669 0.128217 0.357701 8.04508 2.0504

Initials

α1=0.4,
α2=0.1,
λ=0.5
50 0.0097606 0.09703 0.127723 0.357182 3.97463 1.33954
80 0.009836 0.098043 0.128428 0.358233 0.4584 0.657558
100 0.009966 0.098899 0.127668 0.351799 0.370286 0.602852

The note points on the simulation results can be summarized as follows:

  • The biases and MSE of MLE, MME, and IFM approaches mostly decrease as sample size increases.

  • The convergence of the bias and MSE to zero appears very slowly especially for α1,α2 w.r.to the three approaches.

  • The MLE appears the most stable in decaying to zero for the bias and MSE, follows by MME approach, which sometimes tends to change slightly.

  • MLE and MME provide better results to estimate the parameterλ closer to the initials rather than the IFM approach.

  • The MSEs and biases seem smallest for α1 while the largest is for λ.

7. COVID‐19 APPLICATION

How deadly is the coronavirus? In other words, how does mortality differ across countries? Actually, the true fatality rate is tricky to discover till now, but researchers are getting closer. Countries all over the world have reported very different case fatality ratios. When the total number of deaths from COVID‐19 are divided by the total number of cases not just the reported cases, the result is a statistic called the infection fatality rate (IFR), or colloquially, the death rate. Countries all over the world have reported very different case fatality ratios. Differences in fatality ratios or mortality numbers can be caused by: limiting testing and differences in the number of people who make a test, challenges in the attribution of the cause of death. Demographics: for example, older populations may have higher mortality. Moreover, healthcare system is an important factor on making these differences.

The centers for disease control and prevention currently changed the estimates of IFR between 0.26% and 0.65% and is still tricky. See Ref. 22

For visualizing fatalities on COVID‐19 for different countries, we use the following data of the total number of cases per one million populations versus the total number of deaths per one million populations for different countries that have impacted number of infected cases and deaths as given in Ref. 23 from January 22, 2020 to August 15, 2020 as shown in Table 4.

TABLE 4.

Total number of COVID‐19 cases versus the total deaths/1 M population

Country USA Brazil India Russia South Africa Mexico Peru Colombia Spain Iran
Total cases/1 M pop 16019 14631 1685 6150 9532 3815 14829 8057 7992 3937
Total deaths/1 M pop 506 485 33 104 181 418 651 265 611 224
Country UK Italy France Canada Ecuador Sweden Panama Belgium Netherlands Armenia
Total cases/1 M pop 4605 4156 3127 3187 5407 8225 17691 6469 3499 13696
Total deaths/1 M pop 686 583 465 238 337 571 389 852 359 271
Country Kyrgyzstan Bolivia Switzerland Moldova Ireland North Macedonia Andorra Channel Islands Sent Maarten Monaco
Total cases/1 M pop 6190 7983 4259 6998 5421 5800 12461 3442 4772 3514
Total deaths/1 M pop 226 322 230 213 359 254 673 270 396 102

The main descriptive statistics for the given data are summarized in Table 5 as follows.

TABLE 5.

Descriptive statistics for the data set

Statistics Tot cases/1 M pop Tot deaths/1 M pop
Minimum 1685 33
1st quartile 3906.5 229
Median 5975 348
Mean 7251.6 375.8
3rd quartile 8551.8 522.25
Maximum 17691 852
Coefficient of variation 0.5993 0.52606
Standard error 0.26598 0.737617
Pearson's correlation 0.281977
Kendall's tau 0.29667
Spearman's rho 0.444872
Rho/tau 1.499551

To find the initial estimates, we first test the goodness of fit for the marginal Rayleigh distribution by using Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test and Anderson–Darling (AD), critical value (Cv). The results are summarized in Table 6 as follows, which gives a good fit for Rayleigh distribution.

TABLE 6.

Goodness‐of‐fit tests for the marginal to Rayleigh distribution

MLE estimates KS p‐value AD Critical value at α=0.05
Total cases/1 M pop
β1^=5786
KS=0.13525
0.59536
AD=1.0603
CV=2.5018
Total deaths/1 M pop
β2^=299.85
KS=0.09803
0.90842
AD=0.24546
CV=2.5018

Then via goodness‐of‐fit criteria, we make a comparison via different bivariate distributions models and BRPH model. The comparable bivariate distribution models are:

  • (I)

    Bivariate Gumbel Rayleigh distribution

Gumbel–Barnett copula is due to Frees and Valdez, 24 which is defined as

Cu,v=u+v1+1u1vexpθLog1uLog1v

where0θ1. Then, the Bivariate Gumbel Rayleigh 25 can be defined as

gGRx1,x2;α1,α2,α=14α14α24e2x22α12+x12x22θ+2α224α12α22x1x2x12θx22θ+2α22+2α12x22θ21+θα22 (25)

where x 1, x20,α1,α2>0,0θ1.

  • (II)

    Bivariate cubic Rayleigh distribution

In (2000), cubic copula has defined in Dolati et al. 12 as

Cu,v=uv1+θu1v12u12v11θ2

We used it to define bivariate cubic Rayleigh distribution as

gCRx1,x2;α1,α2,θ=e32x12α12+x22α22x1x2666ex122α12+ex12α12θ6ex222α2266ex122α12+ex12α12θ+ex22α226θ6ex122α12θ+ex12α121+θα12α22 (26)

where x 1, x20,α1,α2>0,1θ2.

  • (III)

    Bivariate Farlie–Gumbel Morgenstern Rayleigh distribution at α1=α2=α

Akhter and Hirari 13 have defined this distribution as

gFGMR1x1,x2;α,θ=ex12+x22α2x1x222+ex122α2θ+ex222α22θ+ex122α21+θα4 (27)

where x 1, x20,α>0,1θ1.

  • (IV)
    Bivariate Kumaraswamy type exponential distribution Mirhosseini et al. 9
    gBKEx1,x2;λ1,λ2,α= (28)
    λ1λ2αeλ1x1+λ2x21α1eλ1x11eλ2x211eλ1x11eλ2x2α2

where, x 1, x2>0,λ1,λ2>0,0α1

  • (V)
    Bivariate Gamma on proportional hazard rate model is defined as
    gGPHx1,x2;α1,β1,α2,β2,λ=λx1α11β1α1Γα1ex1β1x2α21β2α2Γα2ex2β21Γx1β1α1Γα1Γx2β2α2Γα2λ21λΓx1β1α1Γα1Γx2β2α2Γα2 (29)

where, x 1, x2>0,α1,β1,α2,β2>0,0λ1.

Using the initial estimates, the MLEs are obtained of the parameters. In order to investigate the potentiality of fitting for the proposed model BRPH than the comparable Bivariate Rayleigh models shown above, we will use the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Hannan–Quinn Information Criterion (HQIC), and Consistent AIC (CAIC). The obtained results indicate that BRPH model provides a better fit to the data set since it has lowest values for the goodness‐of‐fit criteria. The results are summarized in Table 7.

TABLE 7.

Goodness‐of‐fit criteria for BRPH and other models

Distribution MLEs Log AIC BIC CAIC HQIC
BRPH
α1^=272.542
α2^=5539.63
λ^=0.841509
−488.562 983.124 987.328 984.047 984.469
Gumbel Rayleigh
α1^=312.218,
α2^=6270.33

at α^=0.3

−492.297 988.596 991.398 989.04 989.492
Cubic Rayleigh
α1^=297.567,
α2^=5940.56
θ^=0.117251
−489.028 984.979 988.26 984.979 985.401
One parameter Morgenstern Rayleigh
α^=3807.38
θ^=0.98
−620.256 1244.51 1247.32 1244.96 1245.41
Bivariate Kumaraswamy type exponential
α1^=0.00646
α2^=0.00032
λ^=0.393856
−500.004 1006.01 1010.21 1006.93 1007.35
Bivariate Gamma proportional hazard
α1^=3.24365,
α2^=1.868
β1^=129.17,
β2^=2724.22,
α^=1
−489.422 988.844 995.85 991.344 991.085

8. CONCLUSION

In this paper, the BRPH distribution is proposed and applied on COVID‐19 data. This distribution has been constructed with the proportional hazard model. Its joint PDF and CDF has been expressed in a simple form, which makes BRPH used definitely in practice. The statistical and Reliability characteristics have been studied. The related copula has been obtained which is one of the Archimedean family and the dependence properties are considered. The point and interval parameter estimation are discussed via different methods. Simulation study is obtained to compare the performance of the parameter estimates via the different estimation approaches. The study showed that MLE approach mostly provides better results for the three parameters. Some constructed models of bivariate Rayleigh distribution have been built via copula concepts and others used for comparison in a practical application of COVID‐19. The study verified that BRPH could provide a flexible good‐fitted model compared with other competitive bivariate distribution models which describe the total number of infected cases/1 M population versus the total number of deaths per 1 M population for different countries, which have notable number of deaths due to coronavirus. Then, BRPH accommodate one of the good probabilistic model, which can model the burden of fatality of COVID‐19. For future research, a multivariate Rayleigh Proportional Hazard distribution can be constructed with related copula.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors are thankful to the reviewer(s) for the very constructive and valuable comments that enhancing the article. Especially thanks to Dr. Samar Abou Ouf for helping us to visualize and analyze the data.

Biographies

Wafaa Anwar Abd El‐Latif Hassanein, Associate Professor of Mathematical Statistics, Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt. She got her B.Sc., 2000, by excellence with honor degree, she got M.Sc. degree, 2004, in Lerch Family of distributions, and Ph.D. degree, 2007, titled “Uncertainty in Statistics,” Faculty of Science, Tanta University. She is a member of ERS Group and the Egyptian Mathematical Society. Her main research interests are distribution theory, statistical inference, and optimal design of experiments.

Marwa Moghazy Attia Seyam, Lecturer of Mathematical Statistics, Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt, and Associate Professor of Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Arts, Jouf University, Sakaka, Saudi Arabia. She got her B.Sc., 2006, by excellence with honor degree, she got M.Sc. degree, 2009, In Optimal Design, and a Ph.D. degree, 2013, in nonparametric models, Faculty of Science, Tanta University. She is a member of the Egyptian Mathematical Society. Her main research interests are distribution theory, statistical inference, and optimal design of experiments.

THE OBSERVED FISHER INFORMATION MATRIX

2logLα12=λ2i=1nex1i2α121ex2i22α222X1i411ex1i22α121ex2i22α222α16+ex1i22α121ex2i22α22X1i411ex1i22α121ex2i22α22α163ex1i22α121ex2i22α22X1i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22α14+i=1nex1i2α121ex2i22α222λ2x1i411ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λ2α16+ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λx1i411ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λα163ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λx1i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λα14+i=1n3x1i2α14+2α12
2logLλ2=nλ2+i=1n1ex1i22α1221ex2i22α22211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λ2
2logLα1α2=λ2i=1nex1i22α12x2α221ex1i22α121ex2i22α22x1i2x2i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α222α13α23ex1i22α12x2α22x1i2x2i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22α13α23+i=1nex1i22α12x2i22α221ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λ2x1i2x2i211ex2α121ex2i22α22λ2α13α23ex1i22α12x2α22λx1i2x2i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λα13α23
2logLα2λ=i=1nex2i22α221ex1i22α1221ex2i22α22λX2i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λ2α23+ex2i22α221ex1i22α12x2i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22λα23+i=1nex2i22α221ex1i22α12X2i211ex1i22α121ex2i22α22α23

Hassanein WAAE‐L, Seyam MMA. Structure of bivariate Rayleigh proportional hazard rate model with its associated copula applied on COVID‐19 data. Qual Reliab Eng Int. 2022;38:3451–3469. 10.1002/qre.3143

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in “Reported Cases and Deaths by Country or Territory” at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. 23

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Associated Data

This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in “Reported Cases and Deaths by Country or Territory” at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. 23


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