Abstract
Visualizing the fatality of coronavirus is a very tricky point through the world. In this paper, a new construction via the proportional hazard rate model with Rayleigh marginal is introduced and applied on COVID‐19 data set. The statistical and reliability characteristics of bivariate Rayleigh proportional hazard (BRPH) distribution are derived. The copula dependence structure and its properties are studied. The point estimation of the marginal and dependence parameters is introduced via maximum likelihood, method of moments, and inference function for margins (IFM) method. A simulation study is carried out to examine the effectiveness and the performance of the parameter estimates. Finally, an application on COVID‐19 data is used in a comparison study between BRPH model and other constructed bivariate models. This application concerned with modeling the fatality on COVID‐19. Throughout the results of goodness‐of‐fit criteria, BRPH provides a better fit than different competitors constructed bivariate models which reflects its flexibility and applicability on modeling the fatality of COVID‐19.
Keywords: bivariate Rayleigh distribution, copula, COVID‐19, estimation methods, proportional hazard
1. INTRODUCTION
Construction of bivariate distributions has been a significant point of interest to statisticians. It mainly depends on the stochastic interpretation of the marginal distributions and the dependence structure via its copula. There are many techniques to build several bivariate distributions, see Balakrishnan and Lai. 1 Al‐Babtain 2 introduced a new extended Rayleigh distribution. In the statistical literature, the proportional hazard rate (PHR) model has a remarkable amount of devotion in constructing distributions. In 1953, Lehmann, firstly, introduced PHR model in univariate case for testing of hypothesis problem, which named Lemann alternatives. Its dual is called as the proportional reversed hazard rate (PRHR), which proposed by Gupta et al. 3
Several methods of bivariate distributions are constructed with its linked copula as Mazo et al., 4 Salleh et al. 5 and Sajid et al. 6 A new lifetime distribution with three‐parameter is proposed by a combination of Rayleigh distribution and extended odd Weibull family to produce the extended odd Weibull Rayleigh with applications of COVID‐19 data introduced by Almongy. 7
The PHR model is defined as
| (1) |
where, is the baseline cumulative distribution and is the generated cumulative distribution by using PHR model.
There are more constructed models for PHR and PRHR in bivariate case; for example; Kundu and Gupta, 8 Mirhosseini et al., 9 and Sankaran and Gleeia. 10
Starting from the baseline univariate cumulative distributions and PHR model has been proposed in bivariate case as
with the univariate marginal distributions
where λ is the dependence parameter.
This model studied when the baseline cumulative distributions are exponential distribution functions, which is known as bivariate Kumaraswamy type exponential distribution Mirhosseini et al. 9 and Bakouch et al. 11
Copula structure has been received a widespread attention to study the dependence structure of the bivariate distributions. In this sense, Kundu and Gupta 8 and Dolati et al. 12 have studied the dependence properties of bivariate distributions in PHR and PRHR models.
Rayleigh distribution plays a vital role in several areas of research such as magnetic resonance imagining (MRI), acoustics, reliability and survival analysis, in the field of nutrition and so on. Rayleigh distribution has an important characteristic of that its hazard rate is a linear function of time. Its survival function decreases at a much higher than its correspondence with exponential distribution. The probability function of univariate Rayleigh distribution is
In the literature, the Morgenstern bivariate Rayleigh distribution is studied under identical parameters of the marginals, introduced in Akhter and Hirai. 13 The motivation of this paper is to introduce and study a new type of Bivariate Rayleigh distribution in PHR model and presenting some new constructed models of bivariate Rayleigh via different copula concepts, then compare between them and the proposed model via goodness‐of‐fit criteria.
This paper is organized as; first, the bivariate Rayleigh distribution in PHR model has been proposed. The statistical properties including the Joint PDF, the CDF, the survival function, moments, conditional moments, and correlation measures are included in Section 2. In Section 3, reliability measures are presented and discussed. Copula structure of the proposed distribution and its statistical properties are studied in Section 4. Point and interval estimations of the parameters are derived via several techniques in Section 5. In Section 6, a simulation study is proposed to study the behavior of different estimation methods. Finally, Section 7 offered an application on COVID‐19 to illustrate the potentiality of the proposed distribution compared with some other bivariate Rayleigh distribution.
2. BIVARIATE RAYLEIGH PROPORTIONAL HAZARD (BRPH) DISTRIBUTION
Let be a bivariate Rayleigh random vector with scale parameters respectively and the parameter λ, which characterize the dependence parameter. Following Dolati et al. 12 idea of considering the Mittag–Leffler random variable, the bivariate proportional hazard rate Rayleigh joint PDF is defined as
| (2) |
where, the PHR model with the baseline Rayleigh distribution
Then, its univariate cumulative distribution functions are Rayleigh distributions
The corresponding joint CDF of is
| (3) |
where x 1,
The joint survival function is obtained as
Using the binomial expansion Gradshteyn and Ryzhik 14
| (4) |
After some simplifications, the joint density function for the BRPH distribution (2) can be written as
| (5) |
Figure 1 shows two different shapes of the joint density functions of BRPH distribution with parameters . It can be seen that the densities are right‐skewed and jointly unimodal.
FIGURE 1.

Surface plots of the joint PDF of the BRPH distribution for different values of
Proposition 1. For the random vector then
-
(1)For , the moments of is
(6)
and the Pearson's correlation coefficient of is
| (7) |
-
(2)The moment generating function of
is(8)
where is the error function.
Proof.
For part (1), using Equation (5)
where
By using the expansion (4), then
and
Hence, the expression for the product moment is proved.
For part (2),
which consequently implies
and,
Some numerical values of Pearson correlation coefficient values are obtained in Table 1. It is noticed that at small values of the dependence parameter λ, the correlation coefficient is negative weak, then it changes to be positive tends to be strong positive correlation as long as λ approaches 0.5, then it declines till zero at where the independency fulfills.
TABLE 1.
Correlation coefficient for some values of α1, λ
| α1 | α2 | λ | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correlation coefficient | |||||||
| 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1 |
| −0.62144 | 0.18439 | 0.86537 | 0.774582 | 0.30074 | 0 | ||
| 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 1 |
| −0.52302 | 0.244949 | 0.875209 | 0.757469 | 0.271821 | 0 | ||
| 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.52 | 0.72 | 0.92 | 1 |
| −0.52302 | 0.302241 | 0.883214 | 0.739467 | 0.24259 | 0 | ||
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 1 |
| −0.33876 | 0.35635 | 0.889448 | 0.72061 | 0.21307 | 0 | ||
| 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.54 | 0.74 | 0.94 | 1 |
| −0.25274 | 0.40736 | 0.893967 | 0.700936 | 0.18328 | 0 | ||
| 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.95 | 1 |
| −0.17064 | 0.455356 | 0.896828 | 0.680479 | 0.153242 | 0 | ||
| 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.56 | 0.76 | 0.96 | 1 |
| −0.09236 | 0.500417 | 0.898082 | 0.659272 | 0.122976 | 0 | ||
| 1.5 | 3.8 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.97 | 1 |
| −0.01782 | 0.542626 | 0.897784 | 0.637348 | 0.0925 | 0 | ||
| 15.2 | 16.8 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 0.78 | 0.98 | 1 |
| 0.05309 | 0.58206 | 0.895985 | 0.61474 | 0.061833 | 0 | ||
| 50 | 100 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.59 | 0.79 | 0.99 | 1 |
| 0.120465 | 0.618796 | 0.892735 | 0.59148 | 0.0309942 | 0 | ||
The conditional density function of given is obtained in the form
| (9) |
Proposition 2. For the random vector then the conditional moment of order r is
| (10) |
3. RELIABILITY MEASURES
3.1. Stress–strength parameter
It is essential to take into account the stress–strength parameter in measuring the reliability of the operating systems. The system is reliable as long as the stress X 1 is less than the strength .
Proposition 3. Assuming that X 1 and are jointly distributed as , the stress–strength parameter is obtained as
| (11) |
3.2. The hazard rate function
The bivariate hazard rate is defined in several ways in the literature. One is due to Basu 15 as
According to this definition, the hazard rate function for distribution is
| (12) |
Another point of view, Johnson and Kotz 16 define it in a vector form by the following rule
Therefore, the hazard for BRPH distribution can be defined by
and,
3.3. The mean residual life (MRL) and the vitality function
The MRL is defined as the average remaining time of the system after it has survived for a specified time t. Shanbag and Kotz 17 and Vaidyanathan and Varghese 18 defined it in a vector form as
where
Hence, the MRL for distribution is
| (13) |
where
where
In the case of bivariate components of the system, the bivariate vitality function is related to MRL as
and it can be calculated immediately.
4. COPULA STRUCTURE AND DEPENDENCE PROPERTIES
Copula is a way to construct bivariate models with a variety of dependence structures via Sklar's theorem Sklar 19 by solving the equation
| (14) |
For . Sklar's theorem supported us to present dependence properties of the distribution through its associated copula. The function can be written as which is a distribution function of Rayleigh distribution, which produces the following three equivalent equations associated with :
| (15) |
or
or
for all and , which is one of the Archimedean family of copulas with strict generator for more detail see, Nelsen. 20
The density function of the copula is , so the density function for the copula in Equation (15) is denoted by
| (16) |
Now several properties for in terms of copula will be studied as concordance ordering, tail monotonicity, measures of association and symmetry.
Concordance ordering
For two copulas C 1 and C 2, we can say that C 2 is more concordant than C 1 (written if , for all . The copula given by Equation (15) is negatively ordered with respect to λ. A copula C is positively quadrant‐dependent (PQD) if , where is the product copula, for details see Nelsen. 20 As a result, a pair distributed as is PQD, where .
Tail monotonicity
Let be a BRPH continuous random variables whose associated copula is given in Equation (15), then X 2 is left tail decreasing in X 1 (LTD() where for almost all u, and also X 1 is left tail decreasing in X 2 (LTD() where for almost all v, holds in . By routine calculations, we can obtain X 1 is right tail increasing in X 2 (RTI() in holds where for almost all v. If X 1 and X 2 are left corner set decreasing (LCSD()), then (LTD() and (LTD() holds see Corollary 5.2.17 in Nelsen. 20 The following flowchart introduces the relationship among several dependence properties for BRPH distribution
Measures of association
Dependence properties and measures of association are interrelated so four nonparametric measures of association between a continuous random pair () will be introduced such as Kendall's tau (τ), Spearman's rho (ρ), Spearman's footrule coefficient (), and Blomqvist medial correlation coefficient (β), which depends only on the copula C and are given by
| (17) |
| (18) |
Due to Dolati et al., 12 the following proposition is summarized
Proposition 4: Let be a copula defined in Equation (15) then for every
where Ψ is the digamma function,
Moreover, Spearman's footrule coefficient can be calculated after some integration as follows:
Hence,
The medial correlation coefficient for a pair BRPH () is defined as
where and are medians of X 1 and X 2. Some numerical values for medial correlation coefficient are given in Table 2. Using the copula function, the medial correlation becomes Blomqvist medial correlation coefficient (β)
TABLE 2.
Medial correlation associated with BRPH distribution for different values of λ
| λ | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0.2 | |
| Blomqvist medial correlation (β) | 0.972 | 0.958 | 0.9295 | 0.886 | 0.857 | 0.783 | 0.709 | |
| λ | 0.25 | 0.4 | 0.45 | 0.5 | 0.65 | 0.7 | 0.75 | 0.95 |
| Blomqvist medial correlation (β) | 0.6404 | 0.4569 | 0.4038 | 0.354 | 0.2243 | 0.1863 | 0.1506 | 0.0269 |
Therefore, .
5. PARAMETER ESTIMATION
In this section, the estimation of parameters by the maximum likelihood estimation, method of moments, and the inference function for margins (IFM) method will be introduced based on random samples from distribution with parameters and λ.
5.1. Maximum likelihood estimation
The log likelihood function for the BRPH parameter vector has obtained as
| (19) |
The maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by maximizing Equation (19) w.r.to the unknown parameters. The normal equations are given by
| (20) |
| (21) |
| (22) |
The previous equations are nonlinear with respect to the parameters and cannot be obtained in explicit forms, so it can be solved numerically using the initial guesses of the parameters. The initial value for the association parameter λ, say, can be computed using one of the sample estimates of Kendall's tau or Spearman rho . Since and cannot be calculated theoretically from Equations (17) and (18), the numerical solution could be used. Also, the initial estimates for the parameters α1 and α2 will be obtained by making the reparameterization: , . Since and , the estimates and can be calculated based on the marginals and then put and as the initial estimates of α1 and α2.
Since BRPH is a regular family, the asymptotic normality results holds, that is, , where I is the Fisher information matrix. The observed Fisher information matrix is obtained (in the Appendix), which can be used to obtain the asymptotic confidence intervals of the unknown parameters.
5.2. Method of moments
Let the population moment for j th variate is , the sample moment and the sample joint moment are respectively , .
The method of moments of marginal parameters and λ, say, and for distribution can be calculated by solving the following equations for the sample moment and the sample joint moment, respectively:
| (23) |
5.3. Inference function for margins (IFM)
IFM method introduced by Joe and Xu 21 are used for estimating parameters for multivariate models when each of the parameters either marginal of the dependent parameter of the model can be related with a marginal distribution. This method is computed by estimating the univariate parameters by maximizing their corresponding univariate likelihoods and estimating the dependence parameter by maximizing the bivariate likelihood, then the estimates, and are obtained by solving the following log‐likelihood equations. Let , be the log‐likelihood function of X 1 and X 2.
| (24) |
Then, using the Equation (22) for joint likelihood Equation and solving with Equation (24), the estimates can be found much easier. IFM method is simpler than other methods of estimation which estimating all parameters from the joint likelihood function.
6. SIMULATION STUDY
The simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the parameter estimates, which obtained via the mentioned parameter estimation methods. The simulation study was repeated 1000 times each with sample sizes; and the nodes are . Average bias and mean square error (MSE) of the parameter estimates are computed for each step. The results are given in Table 3.
TABLE 3.
Results of the simulation comparison study
| n | MLE method | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Initials |
||||||||||
| 30 | 0.03596 | 0.17219 | 0.00446 | 0.00568 | 0.5807 | 0.6756 | ||||||||||
| 50 | 0.0329 | 0.17166 | 0.002373 | 0.010145 | 0.4634 | 0.6430 | ||||||||||
| 80 | 0.0298 | 0.1676 | 0.00129 | 0.013076 | 0.4068 | 0.621034 | ||||||||||
| 100 | 0.03021 | 0.1696 | 0.0008137 | 0.01398 | 0.39305 | 0.616357 | ||||||||||
| MME method | ||||||||||||||||
| 30 | 0.006637 | 0.0783 | 0.04909 | 0.220514 | 0.0557 | 0.222 |
Initials |
|||||||||
| 50 | 0.00629 | 0.0772 | 0.04842 | 0.2194 | 0.0611 | 0.2409 | ||||||||||
| 80 | 0.00623 | 0.0778 | 0.0487 | 0.2203 | 0.0638 | 0.2491 | ||||||||||
| 100 | 0.0061 | 0.0770 | 0.0482 | 0.2192 | 0.0653 | 0.2534 | ||||||||||
| n | IFM method | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.005692 | 0.07382 | 0.04405 | 0.209302 | 11.0603 | 2.6705 |
Initials |
|||
| 50 | 0.005588 | 0.07380 | 0.004415 | 0.209784 | 8.76662 | 2.35189 | ||||
| 80 | 0.005426 | 0.07301 | 0.043767 | 0.208988 | 5.35891 | 1.83346 | ||||
| 100 | 0.005446 | 0.07327 | 0.04398 | 0.20956 | 3.29645 | 1.509 | ||||
| n | MLE method | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Initials |
||||||||||
| 30 | 0.009708 | 0.0594 | 0.2178 | 0.3955 | 0.26405 | 0.29741 | ||||||||||
| 50 | 0.00738 | 0.0437 | 0.232 | 0.4287 | 0.2346 | 0.32976 | ||||||||||
| 80 | 0.00708 | 0.037 | 0.2306 | 0.4326 | 0.21108 | 0.3252 | ||||||||||
| 100 | 0.0062 | 0.0339 | 0.2276 | 0.4348 | 0.19213 | 0.31995 | ||||||||||
| MME method | ||||||||||||||||
| 30 | 0.01474 | 0.116705 | 0.154039 | 0.391434 | 0.0014404 | 0.0379519 |
Initials |
|||||||||
| 50 | 0.013959 | 0.11501 | 0.155406 | 0.393614 | 0.014403 | 0.0379516 | ||||||||||
| 80 | 0.01388 | 0.116079 | 0.154887 | 0.393178 | 0.0144032 | 0.0379515 | ||||||||||
| 100 | 0.01357 | 0.114891 | 0.155785 | 0.3944 | 0.0140034 | 0.0379518 | ||||||||||
| n | IFM method | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.0101822 | 0.097669 | 0.128217 | 0.357701 | 8.04508 | 2.0504 |
Initials |
|||
| 50 | 0.0097606 | 0.09703 | 0.127723 | 0.357182 | 3.97463 | 1.33954 | ||||
| 80 | 0.009836 | 0.098043 | 0.128428 | 0.358233 | 0.4584 | 0.657558 | ||||
| 100 | 0.009966 | 0.098899 | 0.127668 | 0.351799 | 0.370286 | 0.602852 | ||||
The note points on the simulation results can be summarized as follows:
The biases and MSE of MLE, MME, and IFM approaches mostly decrease as sample size increases.
The convergence of the bias and MSE to zero appears very slowly especially for w.r.to the three approaches.
The MLE appears the most stable in decaying to zero for the bias and MSE, follows by MME approach, which sometimes tends to change slightly.
MLE and MME provide better results to estimate the parameter closer to the initials rather than the IFM approach.
The MSEs and biases seem smallest for α1 while the largest is for λ.
7. COVID‐19 APPLICATION
How deadly is the coronavirus? In other words, how does mortality differ across countries? Actually, the true fatality rate is tricky to discover till now, but researchers are getting closer. Countries all over the world have reported very different case fatality ratios. When the total number of deaths from COVID‐19 are divided by the total number of cases not just the reported cases, the result is a statistic called the infection fatality rate (IFR), or colloquially, the death rate. Countries all over the world have reported very different case fatality ratios. Differences in fatality ratios or mortality numbers can be caused by: limiting testing and differences in the number of people who make a test, challenges in the attribution of the cause of death. Demographics: for example, older populations may have higher mortality. Moreover, healthcare system is an important factor on making these differences.
The centers for disease control and prevention currently changed the estimates of IFR between 0.26% and 0.65% and is still tricky. See Ref. 22
For visualizing fatalities on COVID‐19 for different countries, we use the following data of the total number of cases per one million populations versus the total number of deaths per one million populations for different countries that have impacted number of infected cases and deaths as given in Ref. 23 from January 22, 2020 to August 15, 2020 as shown in Table 4.
TABLE 4.
Total number of COVID‐19 cases versus the total deaths/1 M population
| Country | USA | Brazil | India | Russia | South Africa | Mexico | Peru | Colombia | Spain | Iran |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cases/1 M pop | 16019 | 14631 | 1685 | 6150 | 9532 | 3815 | 14829 | 8057 | 7992 | 3937 |
| Total deaths/1 M pop | 506 | 485 | 33 | 104 | 181 | 418 | 651 | 265 | 611 | 224 |
| Country | UK | Italy | France | Canada | Ecuador | Sweden | Panama | Belgium | Netherlands | Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cases/1 M pop | 4605 | 4156 | 3127 | 3187 | 5407 | 8225 | 17691 | 6469 | 3499 | 13696 |
| Total deaths/1 M pop | 686 | 583 | 465 | 238 | 337 | 571 | 389 | 852 | 359 | 271 |
| Country | Kyrgyzstan | Bolivia | Switzerland | Moldova | Ireland | North Macedonia | Andorra | Channel Islands | Sent Maarten | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cases/1 M pop | 6190 | 7983 | 4259 | 6998 | 5421 | 5800 | 12461 | 3442 | 4772 | 3514 |
| Total deaths/1 M pop | 226 | 322 | 230 | 213 | 359 | 254 | 673 | 270 | 396 | 102 |
The main descriptive statistics for the given data are summarized in Table 5 as follows.
TABLE 5.
Descriptive statistics for the data set
| Statistics | Tot cases/1 M pop | Tot deaths/1 M pop |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum | 1685 | 33 |
| 1st quartile | 3906.5 | 229 |
| Median | 5975 | 348 |
| Mean | 7251.6 | 375.8 |
| 3rd quartile | 8551.8 | 522.25 |
| Maximum | 17691 | 852 |
| Coefficient of variation | 0.5993 | 0.52606 |
| Standard error | 0.26598 | 0.737617 |
| Pearson's correlation | 0.281977 | |
| Kendall's tau | 0.29667 | |
| Spearman's rho | 0.444872 | |
| Rho/tau | 1.499551 |
To find the initial estimates, we first test the goodness of fit for the marginal Rayleigh distribution by using Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test and Anderson–Darling (AD), critical value (). The results are summarized in Table 6 as follows, which gives a good fit for Rayleigh distribution.
TABLE 6.
Goodness‐of‐fit tests for the marginal to Rayleigh distribution
| MLE estimates | KS | p‐value | AD | Critical value at | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cases/1 M pop |
|
|
0.59536 |
|
|
||||
| Total deaths/1 M pop |
|
|
0.90842 |
|
|
Then via goodness‐of‐fit criteria, we make a comparison via different bivariate distributions models and BRPH model. The comparable bivariate distribution models are:
-
(I)
Bivariate Gumbel Rayleigh distribution
Gumbel–Barnett copula is due to Frees and Valdez, 24 which is defined as
where. Then, the Bivariate Gumbel Rayleigh 25 can be defined as
| (25) |
where x 1, .
-
(II)
Bivariate cubic Rayleigh distribution
In (2000), cubic copula has defined in Dolati et al. 12 as
We used it to define bivariate cubic Rayleigh distribution as
| (26) |
where x 1, .
-
(III)
Bivariate Farlie–Gumbel Morgenstern Rayleigh distribution at
Akhter and Hirari 13 have defined this distribution as
| (27) |
where x 1, .
- (IV)
where, x 1,
-
(V)Bivariate Gamma on proportional hazard rate model is defined as
(29)
where, x 1, .
Using the initial estimates, the MLEs are obtained of the parameters. In order to investigate the potentiality of fitting for the proposed model than the comparable Bivariate Rayleigh models shown above, we will use the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Hannan–Quinn Information Criterion (HQIC), and Consistent AIC (CAIC). The obtained results indicate that BRPH model provides a better fit to the data set since it has lowest values for the goodness‐of‐fit criteria. The results are summarized in Table 7.
TABLE 7.
Goodness‐of‐fit criteria for BRPH and other models
| Distribution | MLEs | Log | AIC | BIC | CAIC | HQIC | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
−488.562 | 983.124 | 987.328 | 984.047 | 984.469 | |||||
| Gumbel Rayleigh |
at |
−492.297 | 988.596 | 991.398 | 989.04 | 989.492 | |||||
| Cubic Rayleigh |
|
−489.028 | 984.979 | 988.26 | 984.979 | 985.401 | |||||
| One parameter Morgenstern Rayleigh |
|
−620.256 | 1244.51 | 1247.32 | 1244.96 | 1245.41 | |||||
| Bivariate Kumaraswamy type exponential |
|
−500.004 | 1006.01 | 1010.21 | 1006.93 | 1007.35 | |||||
| Bivariate Gamma proportional hazard |
|
−489.422 | 988.844 | 995.85 | 991.344 | 991.085 |
8. CONCLUSION
In this paper, the BRPH distribution is proposed and applied on COVID‐19 data. This distribution has been constructed with the proportional hazard model. Its joint PDF and CDF has been expressed in a simple form, which makes BRPH used definitely in practice. The statistical and Reliability characteristics have been studied. The related copula has been obtained which is one of the Archimedean family and the dependence properties are considered. The point and interval parameter estimation are discussed via different methods. Simulation study is obtained to compare the performance of the parameter estimates via the different estimation approaches. The study showed that MLE approach mostly provides better results for the three parameters. Some constructed models of bivariate Rayleigh distribution have been built via copula concepts and others used for comparison in a practical application of COVID‐19. The study verified that BRPH could provide a flexible good‐fitted model compared with other competitive bivariate distribution models which describe the total number of infected cases/1 M population versus the total number of deaths per 1 M population for different countries, which have notable number of deaths due to coronavirus. Then, BRPH accommodate one of the good probabilistic model, which can model the burden of fatality of COVID‐19. For future research, a multivariate Rayleigh Proportional Hazard distribution can be constructed with related copula.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors are thankful to the reviewer(s) for the very constructive and valuable comments that enhancing the article. Especially thanks to Dr. Samar Abou Ouf for helping us to visualize and analyze the data.
Biographies
Wafaa Anwar Abd El‐Latif Hassanein, Associate Professor of Mathematical Statistics, Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt. She got her B.Sc., 2000, by excellence with honor degree, she got M.Sc. degree, 2004, in Lerch Family of distributions, and Ph.D. degree, 2007, titled “Uncertainty in Statistics,” Faculty of Science, Tanta University. She is a member of ERS Group and the Egyptian Mathematical Society. Her main research interests are distribution theory, statistical inference, and optimal design of experiments.
Marwa Moghazy Attia Seyam, Lecturer of Mathematical Statistics, Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt, and Associate Professor of Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Arts, Jouf University, Sakaka, Saudi Arabia. She got her B.Sc., 2006, by excellence with honor degree, she got M.Sc. degree, 2009, In Optimal Design, and a Ph.D. degree, 2013, in nonparametric models, Faculty of Science, Tanta University. She is a member of the Egyptian Mathematical Society. Her main research interests are distribution theory, statistical inference, and optimal design of experiments.
THE OBSERVED FISHER INFORMATION MATRIX
Hassanein WAAE‐L, Seyam MMA. Structure of bivariate Rayleigh proportional hazard rate model with its associated copula applied on COVID‐19 data. Qual Reliab Eng Int. 2022;38:3451–3469. 10.1002/qre.3143
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in “Reported Cases and Deaths by Country or Territory” at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. 23
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Associated Data
This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.
Data Availability Statement
The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in “Reported Cases and Deaths by Country or Territory” at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. 23
