Three years of COVID-19 and life satisfaction in Europe: A macro view

Significance

There is surprisingly little research on the overall-well-being impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. What exists typically covers limited geographies and periods or outcomes other than subjective well-being. This study overcomes these limitations to demonstrate that the ups and downs of the pandemic have been matched by corresponding inverse movements in life satisfaction across all of Europe. This result, based on within-year impacts, contrasts with the most closely related studies that found, on average, little or no effect—likely due to the use of annual data.

Abstract

Every country in Europe experienced an adverse impact from the COVID-19 pandemic on life satisfaction, though on average, satisfaction with life in the summer of 2022 is about the same as the pre-pandemic value in the autumn of 2019. Typically, an upsurge in the severity of the pandemic (measured by the number of COVID-related deaths) is associated with declining life satisfaction and an ebbing, with increasing life satisfaction. Of the three waves of the pandemic between March 2020 and the autumn of 2022, the most severe impact typically occurred in 2021 during the second wave; in the third wave, the response declined due to the spread of effective vaccines and the takeover of omicron variants.

This article provides an overview of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life satisfaction throughout Europe from 2020 to 2022. As will be seen, life satisfaction in every country in Europe has at one time or another been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

There is a voluminous and insightful literature on COVID-19, but much of it centers on one or a few countries, examines effects other than life satisfaction, or is confined to the earlier months of the pandemic (1). The closest parallel to the present study is the chapters in the 2021 and 2022 World Happiness Report (WHR), which present estimates of subjective well-being gathered in the Gallup World Poll (2, 3). The geographic coverage of the WHR is worldwide, much more extensive than the focus here, but the data on subjective well-being are confined to annual, as opposed to the semi-annual observations in the present analysis. In contrast to the generally negative tenor of the pandemic effects reported in the literature, the emphasis in the WHR is considerably more positive. The 2022 Report states that “subjective well-being continues to be resilient in the face of COVID-19 (p. 33).” This statement is based on a general lack of negative changes observed in the annual averages for around 150 countries from 2017 to 2021. However, the Report also indicates that the 2020 and 2021 data are likely to be biased upward relative to earlier years in a number of countries, because of a switch from face-to-face to telephone interviews (3). This bias is particularly relevant for Europe, because every one of the Eastern European countries experienced this switch. Another concern with the WHR analysis is that annual data tend to obscure the well-being impact of the pandemic. As shall be seen, the ups and downs of the pandemic typically occur within a year, meaning annual data average together the fluctuations due to the pandemic. Indeed, two studies with more granular data reveal well-being initially declined during the first wave of the pandemic and then quickly recovered (4, 5).

Brodeur et al. (4) and Sarracino et al. (5) are among five studies with somewhat similar, though more limited geographic and temporal scope compared to this study. In different samples of ten mostly European countries, Brodeur et al. and Sarracino et al. use novel daily data based on Google searches and Twitter posts to show the initial decline and then recovery in well-being that was mentioned above. Another study, Aknin et al. (6) uses surveys collected every 2 wk in 15 developed countries around the world for the period April 2020 (following initial lockdowns) to June 2021. Consistent with our results discussed below, they find life evaluations were negatively associated with death rates. Bachmann et al. (7) studies a different sample of 15 countries, which are based in Western Europe, over the period March to July 2020, and concludes that “life satisfaction is negatively correlated with the spread of COVID-19 in Northern Europe,” but, contrary to the present results, the “correlation is insignificant in Southern and Western Europe” (p. 1). The fifth study is from the OECD, which produced a comprehensive analysis of “Life in the Pandemic” (8) Among other things, it finds that “more than a quarter of people in 15 OECD countries were at risk for anxiety or depression by late 2020.” However, this study does not specifically look at life satisfaction. Collectively, we can infer that the observed impacts of COVID-19 vary with the period and country in which they are assessed, which makes sample limitations all the more relevant. Not one of the five studies covers Eastern Europe nor both the second and third waves of the pandemic. The present study covers all of the principal regions of Europe and extends to the autumn of 2022.

Variables

Life satisfaction here is the response to the following question in the semi-annual Eurobarometer survey: “On the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the life you lead?” The categorical response options in the order above are scored from 4 down to 1 on an integer scale. The Eurobarometer surveys used here cover 25 countries which, as shall be seen, are representative for the present analysis of the 37 nations in Europe with populations of one million or more.

The pandemic is measured in terms of confirmed COVID-19 cases and confirmed COVID-19 deaths, both on a per million population basis to enable comparisons among countries. Our data source, detailed below in the section on Materials and Methods, is the valuable collection assembled by Our World in Data, on which we also draw for a summary measure of the scope and strength of COVID-19 containment and mitigation policies—the “Stringency Index”—as well as a measure of the time spent by households at retail and residential locations. The basic data on cases and deaths by region and country at each date are given in SI Appendix, Tables S1 and S2; on life satisfaction, in SI Appendix, Table S3.

For geographic comparisons, Europe is divided into Western and Eastern Blocs. The Western Bloc comprises three regions—Northern, Western, and Southern; and the Eastern Bloc, two regions—Eastern Europe (non-FSU) and Former Soviet Union (FSU). The countries included in each region are shown in Table 1.

Table 1.

COVID-19: Cumulative confirmed cases and cumulative confirmed deaths, per million people, Europe and subdivisions as of October 19, 2022

Place	Cumulative cases	Cumulative deaths
Europe	337,961	2,828
Western Bloc	414,730	2,068
Northern Europe	331,651	1,271
Norway	270,913	769
Sweden*	248,862	1,953
Finland*	239,064	1,128
Denmark*	567,765	1,234
Western Europe	451,471	2,117
United Kingdom*	353,722	3,091
Ireland*	334,978	1,606
France*	541,084	2,318
Netherlands*	485,581	1,305
Belgium*	395,674	2,826
Germany*	419,690	1,824
Austria*	601,865	2,348
Switzerland	479,173	1,616
Southern Europe	424,326	2,766
Spain*	283,501	2,414
Portugal*	535,410	2,442
Italy*	391,863	3,009
Greece*	486,530	3,200
Eastern Bloc	279,471	3,408
Eastern Non-FSU	270,919	3,780
Poland*	165,264	3,080
Czech Republic*	394,619	3,944
Slovak Republic*	484,365	3,769
Hungary*	219,623	4,923
Romania*	169,783	3,474
Bulgaria*	184,820	5,491
Slovenia*	576,051	3,239
Croatia*	306,125	4,198
Bosnia & Herzeg	122,162	4,941
Albania	116,545	1,258
North Macedonia	163,467	4,543
Serbia	348,211	2,498
Former Soviet Union	290,873	2,912
Russia	144,940	2,628
Estonia*	455,800	2,054
Latvia*	504,874	3,221
Lithuania*	453,425	3,362
Belarus	103,782	743
Ukraine	128,258	2,703
Moldova	193,544	3,880
Armenia	159,396	3,119
Georgia	473,843	4,497

^*Countries included in the Eurobarometer Surveys.

Source: Our World in Data (9).

Results

Geographic Scope of the Pandemic.

No country in Europe has been able to escape the pandemic. This is apparent from the cumulative number of confirmed cases reported in each of the countries of Europe as of autumn 2022 (Table 1, col. 1). On a per million population basis, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Europe as a whole is well over 300,000, i.e., more than three cases for every 10 persons. Even in countries with the fewest reported cases, the number amounts to more than one case in ten.

The geographic scope of confirmed deaths per million (Table 1, col. 2) is generally consistent with that of confirmed cases in showing a noticeable impact of the pandemic in every country. In the subsequent analysis of the relationship between COVID-19 on life satisfaction, we rely primarily on the deaths measure, because it is more indicative of the severity of the COVID impact. We further discuss the advantages of using deaths as a proxy for the severity of the pandemic in the Materials and Methods section below.

The numbers on cases and deaths understate the magnitude of the pandemic. It is widely agreed that the true number of cases must be considerably more, because to qualify as a confirmed case there must be laboratory confirmation of infection. In regard to confirmed deaths, laboratory confirmation is not necessary, but the judgment of medical practitioners must be that the signs and symptoms point toward COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death. We do not examine differences in cases or deaths across countries, because COVID-19 reporting varies among countries due to differences in such things as COVID-19 definitions, case detection, laboratory testing, and reporting lag times.

Temporal Pattern of the Pandemic.

There are three complete COVID-19 waves from the start of the pandemic around the beginning of March 2020 to the autumn of 2022 (Fig. 1). The first wave that extends from around March 2020 into the following summer is comparatively short and mild, with a peak in April of deaths per million that is about half that of the subsequent two waves. The second wave stretches from the summer of 2020 to the summer of 2021, peaking in January 2021, and the third, from summer of 2021 to the autumn of 2022 with a peak in December 2021. This is the picture for Europe as a whole; individual countries may, of course, deviate from the general pattern, there being a slight tendency for Western Bloc countries to lead the Eastern Bloc.

Fig. 1.

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths and cumulative deaths per million, Europe, November 2019 to August 2022. Daily new and cumulative deaths are smoothed using a 7-d centered moving average. Vertical lines correspond to midpoints of Eurobarometer survey dates. Source: Author calculations; Our World in Data (9).

The semiannual Eurobarometer surveys, whose fieldwork is usually 4 to 5 wk in length, fall fortuitously at dates that provide a good picture of the life satisfaction changes that occurred in both the upswings and downswings of the large second and third waves of the pandemic. This can be seen in Fig. 1 where vertical lines are drawn at the midpoint date of each of the six surveys spanning the period of the pandemic. For the shorter and milder first COVID-19 wave, the Eurobarometer survey interval that includes it is 9 months long, about twice the length of the wave itself, and includes the downswing along with the upswing. The effect of the wave on life satisfaction is consequently obscured. We therefore focus on the second and third waves in what follows.

The pattern of the pandemic in Europe as a whole forms an M-shape in new COVID-19 deaths in the intervals between the Eurobarometer surveys (Fig. 2, solid line). The right half of the M is somewhat less pronounced due to a decline in new deaths in the third wave compared to the second. Among the regions, this M-pattern is replicated in the two Eastern Bloc regions. In the Western Bloc, the first half of the M is seen in all three regions, but the second half is only faintly apparent in the Western and Southern regions and is nonexistent in the Northern region.

Fig. 2.

Change in number of deaths per million in successive Eurobarometer survey intervals, Europe (solid line) and 25 Eurobarometer countries (dashed line), by region. For the Southern region, both Europe and EB countries include the same four countries, so solid and dashed lines are the same. Source: Author calculations; Our World in Data (9).

In the 25 countries for which life satisfaction data are available, the time series patterns of new deaths are virtually identical to those of Europe as a whole and its regions (Fig. 2, broken lines). This suggests that the relationship between COVID-19 and life satisfaction found here for the 25 countries is representative of Europe more generally.

Impact of the Pandemic on Life Satisfaction.

In every one of the 25 Eurobarometer countries an upsurge in the pandemic has a negative association with life satisfaction in at least one and usually both of the second and third waves. Typically, an upsurge in COVID-19 deaths is matched by a decline in life satisfaction and a downswing by an increase in life satisfaction (SI Appendix, Tables S2 and S3). Compared with life satisfaction at the last pre-pandemic survey date in November 2019, life satisfaction at the end of the third wave was, on average, virtually unchanged (SI Appendix, Table S3).

At the regional level, the M-pattern for COVID-19 deaths (Fig. 3, solid lines) tends to be matched by a W-shape for life satisfaction (Fig. 3, broken lines), which is indicative of the negative relationship between deaths and life satisfaction. In the second wave, this is uniformly the case in all five regions of Europe, but in the third wave, the amplitude of the movements in both deaths and life satisfaction is much milder than in the second and varies among regions. In the third wave, the right wing of the W-pattern for life satisfaction is still apparent in the two Eastern Bloc regions (where the M-pattern in deaths can still be seen) but in the three Western Bloc regions, it is either more moderate (in the Western and Southern regions) or absent (Northern region).

Fig. 3.

Number of deaths per million and change in life satisfaction in successive Eurobarometer survey intervals, 25 Eurobarometer countries by region. Source: Author calculations; Our World in Data (9); Eurobarometer (10–15).

The typically negative relationship between COVID-19 deaths and life satisfaction is confirmed by regression analysis. When we regress the change in life satisfaction in the four intervals from August 2020 to July 2022 on the change in deaths per hundred (i.e., new deaths per 100), the result is a regression coefficient of −1.018, significant at the P < 0.01 level (Table 2, col. 1). This implies that life satisfaction changes by just about the same amount as deaths per 100, but in the opposite direction. For example, during the upswing of the second wave in the 25 Eurobarometer survey countries, the average change in deaths per 100 was just short of 0.10 (SI Appendix, Table S2), which, ceteris paribus, would be associated with an equal decline of about 0.10 in life satisfaction on the 1 to 4 response scale used in the Eurobarometer.

Table 2.

Life satisfaction and COVID-19 regression statistics, 25 Eurobarometer Countries, August 2020 to July 2022

Model	(1)OLS	(2)FE	(3)OLS	(4)FE
Dep. Var	Life sat change	Life sat change	New deaths/mil	New deaths/mil
New deaths per 100	−1.018*** (0.259)	−1.777*** (0.311)
New cases per mill			0.002*** (0.001)	0.004*** (0.001)
People vaccinated (%) (Mid)			−7.824*** (1.498)	−6.861*** (1.526)
Omicron share (%) (Mid)			−2.512*** (0.751)	−4.467*** (1.160)
Constant	0.058*** (0.015)	0.106*** (0.020)	788.862*** (85.851)	681.746*** (38.903)
No. of observations	99	99	99	99
R-squared	0.132	0.244	0.248	0.395

Notes: OLS—ordinary least squares. FE—country fixed effects. Life satisfaction and cumulative deaths are observed at five dates, as described in the text, yielding four observations per country of life satisfaction changes, new deaths and new cases. Life satisfaction is missing for the United Kingdom in the final survey. New deaths are per 100 (not million) in columns 1 and 2 to ease interpretation. The vaccinated population share is the percentage of the total population who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Cases are taken from the dates two weeks prior to the observation dates for deaths and life satisfaction. The omicron and vaccination shares are from two weeks prior to the life satisfaction interval midpoint.

Standard errors in parentheses (clustered by country).

*P < 0.10, **P < 0.05, ***P < 0.01.

Source: Author calculations; Our World in Data (9); Eurobarometer (10–15).

A 0.10 change in life satisfaction on the 1 to 4 response scale of the Eurobarometer is sizeable. This impact on aggregate life satisfaction of 0.10 new deaths per 100 (or 1 per 1,000) is larger than the impact of a three-percentage point increase in the unemployment rate (16) and falls within the range of relations for individuals becoming unemployed or divorced^*. If we consider instead the fixed effects results in Table 2, column 2, the magnitude of the impact on life satisfaction would be even larger.

As noted, new COVID-19 deaths decline in the third wave compared to the second, which is indicative of a decrease in the severity of the pandemic. This decline is not due to a corresponding reduction in confirmed cases, which trend slightly upward while deaths move significantly downward (Fig. 4). In the second wave, about 2% of cases end in deaths. In the upswing of wave 3, this ratio falls to somewhat less than 1%, and in the downswing, it declines further to about one-fifth of 1%.

Fig. 4.

Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million and deaths per million, Europe, second and third COVID-19 waves. Upper presents daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per million from 2 wk prior to the date across the x axis. The Bottom presents new deaths per million. 37 European countries. Seven-day centered moving average, with OLS trend lines added. Source: Our World in Data (9).

The decline in deaths per case is due in large part to two developments that reduce the likelihood of COVID-19 infections leading to fatality. The first is the development and diffusion of anti-COVID-19 vaccines, which were introduced in the beginning of 2021 and spread to about two-thirds of the population of Europe by the end of the year. The second is the emergence and takeover of omicron variants of COVID-19 cases, which, though highly contagious, are much less likely to be fatal. Omicron variants begin to appear toward the end of 2021 and then quickly became dominant – in a matter of only 2 mo they accounted for almost all COVID-19 cases. Effective therapeutic interventions, such as Paxlovid, started to appear near the end of the third wave—too late to affect noticeably the ratio of deaths per case in the third wave.

Multivariate regression analysis, based on data for the 25 Eurobarometer countries in the four survey intervals covering the second and third waves, supports the view that vaccinations and the omicron variant reduced the likelihood of infections leading to death. The coefficient of new deaths on the per cent of population with at least one dose of vaccine is negative and highly significant (P < 0.01) and the same is true of the coefficient on the omicron percentage of cases (Table 2, cols. 3 and 4). The fixed effects regression results indicate that a 10-percentage point increase in the share of the population with at least one vaccine dose is associated with 68 (10 × −6.8) fewer new deaths per million per survey interval. A 10-percentage point increase in the omicron share of cases is associated with a drop in 45 (10 × −4.5) new deaths per million per survey interval. These magnitudes are substantial; they compare with an average number of 632 deaths per million population per survey interval in the second and third waves.

These developments do not, of course, exhaust the factors impacting life satisfaction in the second and third waves. To explore the many possible links is beyond the scope of this paper, but it is worth noting one side effect of these new developments on preexisting COVID-19 policies. As the severity of the pandemic lessened noticeably and deaths per million trended downward (Fig. 5, Top), government containment and mitigation policies to reduce the impact of the pandemic were gradually relaxed. The extent of this easing is captured by the Stringency Index (Fig. 5, Middle). This is a summary measure of the magnitude and scope of restrictive government policies such as school and work shutdowns, stay-at home requirements, and domestic and international travel restrictions. In turn, as restrictive policies were substantially eased, people resumed more normal lives, and time spent at recreation and retail locations returned to prepandemic levels (Fig. 5, Bottom). This loosening of government restrictive policies, which previously reduced life satisfaction (6, 18, 19), added to the recovery in life satisfaction.

Fig. 5.

Deaths per million, stringency index, and time spent at retail and recreation locations, 25 Eurobarometer countries, second and third COVID-19 Waves. Panels are distinguished by and present the series for the variable in their respective titles. Seven-day centered moving average, with OLS trend lines added. The vertical dashed lines denote the peaks and troughs of the New Deaths series. Source: Our World in Data and COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (9); Google Mobility Reports (17).

Discussion

The foregoing demonstrates the pervasive negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on life satisfaction throughout Europe. It provides a summary picture, but much remains to be done to identify the specific channels through which the effect on life satisfaction operated, such as changes in employment, health, and living conditions. Future research should identify these channels^†, as well as long-term outcomes^‡, psychological adjustment mechanisms^§, and what can be done to mitigate the impacts^¶.

The most recent wave, which peaked in December 2021, was less severe than its predecessor, inviting the conclusion that future “waves” will be much flatter. Such an inference would be premature, however, because an important contributor to the reduced effect has been the emergence of the less deadly omicron variants. Our Table 2 regression implies that if the omicron variants had not emerged, there would have been 447 more deaths per million (100 × −4.47; Table 2, col. 4) in wave three versus the corresponding European average of 574. There is no guarantee that a more fatal omicron variant will not emerge or that omicron will not be replaced by a new deadly variant with a sizeable impact on death rates and life satisfaction. Absent such developments, however, the impacts of the pandemic on life satisfaction in Europe seem now to be largely part of the past.

Materials and Methods

Data on mean life satisfaction scores are aggregated and presented by country in the Standard Eurobarometer Survey results (10–15). Recently published quarterly data for the United Kingdom from 2019 Q4 through 2022 Q1 show a pattern consistent with the semiannual Eurobarometer data (20).

Deaths are used as a proxy of the severity of the pandemic for several reasons. Deaths were regularly reported by governments and the media and were antecedent to many factors affecting society. Officials adjusted health and containment policies in response to infection and death rates. Indeed, the stringency index is correlated with deaths at nearly 60% in our sample. Similarly, people adjusted their behavior in response to the fear of infection and containment policies, which is evidenced by a negative correlation between stringency and individuals’ time spent at retail and recreation locations (at 84%). Economic consequences also stemmed from these policies and behavior. Deaths do not capture all aspects of life that were affected by COVID-19, but is the best proxy for the present analysis.

The pandemic data are from the valuable compilations in Our World in Data (9), including:

Confirmed cases and deaths—COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

Vaccinations—Percentage population share that received at least one dose, collected and compiled by the team of Our World in Data (21).

Stringency Index—Scaled from 0 to 100, with greater values representing stricter containment policies. COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.

Number of visitors to retail and recreation places compared with number in the period January 3 to February 6, 2020 (17)—Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.

Methodologically, the analysis is based on descriptive figures and tables, with supporting bivariate or multivariate regressions as discussed in the text.

Supplementary Material

Appendix 01 (PDF)

Data, Materials, and Software Availability

Previously published data were used for this work (9–15, 17, 24).