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JAMA Network logoLink to JAMA Network
. 2023 Jun 5;6(6):e2317055. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.17055

Patterns in Child Health Outcomes Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak in India

Soohyeon Ko 1,2, Rockli Kim 2,3,, S V Subramanian 4,5,
PMCID: PMC10242422  PMID: 37273207

Abstract

This cross-sectional study examines prepandemic-to-postpandemic changes in mortality, nutrition and feeding practices, anthropometry, vaccination, and other measures in a sample of children from the Indian National Family Health Survey.

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent national lockdowns in many countries disrupted access to basic services.1 Several welfare programs were put in place, even in resource-limited settings, to mitigate the socioeconomic and health consequences.2 To assess the overall implication of COVID-19 for population health, data ideally should be collected immediately before and after the outbreak. We used the 2019 to 2021 National Family Health Survey (NFHS)3 in India, a country with the second-highest number of COVID-19 cases and the third-highest death tolls in the world as of January 2023,4 to examine the systematic differences in various child health outcomes before vs after the outbreak.

Methods

The cross-sectional data of the 2019 to 2021 NFHS provided a unique opportunity to perform an empirical assessment, as the data were collected both before and after March 2020, when the national lockdown was declared in 13 of the 36 states or Union Territories in India, facilitating a natural comparison in health outcomes. For this cross-sectional study, data collected from June 17, 2019, to February 29, 2020, were defined as before COVID-19 and those from March 1, 2020, to May 20, 2021, were defined as after COVID-19. Further details on the survey design are available elsewhere.3 The Harvard Longwood Campus Institutional Review Board deemed this study exempt from ethics review because it was a secondary use of anonymized information. This study followed the STROBE reporting guideline.

Child health outcomes with a short reference period and deemed most likely to be affected by disruptions in health services were selected (Table 1). Twenty-six indicators related to pregnancy and child health and health care, feeding and nutrition, anthropometric failures, and vaccination were included. Absolute differences (in percentage points) were calculated by comparing the prevalence of outcomes before vs after the outbreak (eg, prevalence [stunting] after COVID-19 − prevalence [stunting] before COVID-19).

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of the Analytic Sample From 2019 to 2021 Indian National Family Health Surveya.

Indicator Total No.b Age, mean (SD), moc Male, No. (%)c Female, No. (%)c
Pregnancy-related
Antenatal care: ≥4 visits 93 848 25.58 (16.99) 51 022 (54.34) 42 826 (45.66)
Antenatal care: ≥8 visits 93 848 25.58 (16.99) 51 022 (54.34) 42 826 (45.66)
Skilled birth attendance 125 812 29.95 (17.55) 65 574 (52.14) 60 238 (47.86)
In-facility delivery 125 812 29.95 (17.55) 65 574 (52.14) 60 238 (47.86)
Health and health care
Neonatal mortality within 28 d of birth 125 812 29.95 (17.55) 65 574 (52.14) 60 238 (47.86)
Low birth weight 110 161 29.67 (17.49) 57 327 (52.11) 52 834 (47.89)
Diarrhea 120 378 29.92 (17.55) 62 575 (52.02) 57 803 (47.98)
Diarrhea treated with ORS 7082 23.48 (16.31) 3769 (53.59) 3313 (46.41)
Diarrhea treated with zinc 6891 23.49 (16.33) 3676 (53.74) 3215 (46.26)
Diarrhea treated at health facility or by health care practitioner 7093 23.49 (16.31) 3777 (53.62) 3316 (46.38)
ARI 120 419 29.92 (17.55) 62 592 (52.02) 57 827 (47.98)
Fever or symptoms of ARI treated at health facility or by health care practitioner 10 914 27.18 (16.60) 5942 (53.87) 4972 (46.13)
Feeding and nutrition
Receiving solid or semisolid food 5751 7.40 (0.96) 2978 (50.84) 2773 (49.16)
Adequate diet for children who had breastfeeding 28 117 13.74 (5.04) 14 810 (52.37) 13 307 (47.63)
Adequate diet for children who had no breastfeeding 4273 16.53 (4.64) 2171 (49.88) 2102 (50.12)
Anemia 97 032 33.30 (15.54) 50 637 (52.27) 46 395 (47.73)
Integrated Child Development Services 41 390 28.75 (17.02) 21 614 (52.18) 19 776 (47.82)
Anthropometric failure
Wasting 108 458 30.12 (17.32) 56 223 (51.89) 52 235 (48.11)
Underweight 112 661 29.75 (17.45) 58 568 (52.06) 54 093 (47.94)
Stunting 110 507 30.03 (17.39) 57 391 (52.00) 53 116 (48.00)
Overweight 108 458 30.12 (17.32) 56 223 (51.89) 52 235 (48.11)
Vaccination
BCG vaccine 71 597 17.59 (10.44) 37 140 (51.73) 34 457 (48.27)
First dose of DPT vaccine 27 566 6.49 (3.88) 14 229 (51.21) 13 337 (48.79)
Third dose of DPT vaccine 27 566 6.49 (3.88) 14 229 (51.21) 13 337 (48.79)
First dose of polio vaccine 27 591 6.49 (3.88) 14 240 (51.20) 13 351 (48.80)
Third dose of polio vaccine 27 591 6.49 (3.88) 14 240 (51.20) 13 351 (48.80)

Abbreviations: ARI, acute respiratory infection; BCG, bacille Calmette-Guérin; DPT, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus; ORS, oral rehydration salts.

a

This analytic sample was restricted to 13 states or Union Territories with survey data that were collected immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak: Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, National Capital Territory of Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry.

b

Excluding individuals with missing data on each outcome variable. Thus, the sample size for each outcome varied.

c

Descriptive statistics were estimated using survey weight.

Statistical significance was determined using logistic regression models adjusted for child age, sex, and state fixed effects. To account for the multistage, stratified cluster-sampling design, survey weights were applied to all statistical analyses. Two-sided P = .05 indicated statistical significance. Analyses were performed between October 2022 and January 2023, using Stata 17 (StataCorp LLC).

Results

The sample size for the most complete outcome was 125 812 (65 574 boys [52.1%], 60 238 girls [47.9%]; mean [SD] age, 30.0 [17.6] months) (Table 1). Compared with before-COVID-19 data, after-COVID-19 data showed small but significant deterioration in neonatal mortality (0.49 percentage points), feeding and nutrition (eg, 4.22 percentage points reduction in solid or semisolid food intake), and anthropometric failures (eg, 1.87 percentage points increase in underweight) (Table 2). The most substantial difference was found in vaccination indicators, with 7.74 percentage points and 6.51 percentage points reduction in first dose of DPT (diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus) and polio, respectively. Other indicators, including many related to health services, either remained constant or marginally improved during the outbreak.

Table 2. Comparison of Selected Child Health Indicators Before and After COVID-19 Outbreak From 2019 to 2021 Indian National Family Health Surveya.

Indicator COVID-19 outbreak, No. (weighted %)b Absolute difference, percentage point Direction of change P valuec
Before After
Pregnancy-related
Antenatal care: ≥4 visitsd 51 626 (56.56) 857 (54.74) −1.82 Deterioration .28
Antenatal care: ≥8 visitsd 13 559 (16.36) 173 (12.60) −3.76 Deterioration .95
Skilled birth attendancee 80 013 (71.95) 10 082 (72.35) 0.40 Improvement .005
In-facility deliverye 97 662 (88.21) 12 500 (90.07) 1.86 Improvement .11
Health and health care
Neonatal mortality within 28 d of birthe,f 3003 (2.72) 425 (3.21) 0.49 Deterioration .03
Low birth weighte,f 17 901 (18.53) 2342 (18.62) 0.09 Deterioration .81
Diarrheag 2940 (7.82) 4153 (4.94) −2.88 Improvement <.001
Diarrhea treated with ORSg 1687 (57.49) 2519 (58.01) 0.52 Improvement .09
Diarrhea treated with zincg 812 (27.73) 1438 (34.26) 6.53 Improvement <.001
Diarrhea treated at health facility or by health care practitionerg 2030 (68.99) 2981 (72.91) 3.92 Improvement <.001
ARIg 1720 (4.52) 1652 (2.08) −2.44 Improvement <.001
Fever or symptoms of ARI treated at health facility or by health care practitionerg 3793 (74.14) 4247 (74.77) 0.63 Improvement .05
Feeding and nutrition
Receiving solid or semisolid foodg 774 (44.36) 1638 (40.14) −4.22 Deterioration <.001
Adequate diet for children who had breastfeedingg 952 (10.66) 1958 (8.41) −2.25 Deterioration <.001
Adequate diet for children who had no breastfeedingg 151 (13.21) 323 (10.93) −2.28 Deterioration .02
Anemiag 21 590 (71.33) 44 188 (65.86) −5.47 Improvement <.001
Integrated Child Development Servicesg 16 735 (67.62) 11 887 (69.60) 1.98 Improvement .87
Anthropometric failure
Wastingg 5666 (16.66) 12 769 (17.00) 0.34 Deterioration .22
Underweightg 9887 (28.25) 23 315 (30.12) 1.87 Deterioration <.001
Stuntingg 12 052 (34.93) 26 304 (34.37) −0.56 Improvement .01
Overweightg 1371 (3.75) 2566 (2.96) −0.79 Improvement <.001
Vaccination
BCG vaccinee 54 887 (94.45) 12 487 (92.05) −2.4 Deterioration <.001
First dose of DPT vaccinee 11 304 (80.17) 9845 (72.43) −7.74 Deterioration .57
Third dose of DPT vaccinee 8171 (57.54) 6134 (45.20) −12.34 Deterioration .002
First dose of polio vaccinee 11 090 (78.99) 9822 (72.48) −6.51 Deterioration .03
Third dose of polio vaccinee 7593 (53.60) 5807 (42.73) −10.87 Deterioration <.001

Abbreviations: ARI, acute respiratory infection; BCG, bacille Calmette-Guérin; DPT, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus; ORS, oral rehydration salts.

a

This comparison was restricted to 13 states or Union Territories with survey data that were collected immediately before and after the COVID-19 outbreak: Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, National Capital Territory of Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry.

b

Weighted prevalence was estimated using survey weight.

c

P values were based on state fixed-effect logistic regression models adjusted for child age and sex.

d

Before and after COVID-19 periods were defined as pregnancy occurring before or after COVID-19 outbreak, respectively.

e

Before and after COVID-19 periods were defined as births occurring before or after COVID-19 outbreak, respectively.

f

Age was not adjusted for these outcomes.

g

Before and after COVID-19 periods were defined as National Family Health Survey interview occurring before or after COVID-19 outbreak, respectively.

Discussion

Mixed results from this analysis suggested that adverse consequences of COVID-19 and national lockdown were countered, to some extent, by emergency relief programs. For example, the Indian government launched Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana in 2020 to distribute 5 kg of food grains and 1 kg of pulses per month to approximately 800 million individuals (approximately two-thirds of India’s population).5 This initiative may explain the relatively constant or minimally worsened patterns in child nutrition status before and after the outbreak. It also underscored the need to sustain relief programs in nonpandemic times to promote children’s health. Improvements in child health outcomes, such as diarrhea and acute respiratory infection rates, may be attributed to the wider promotion of interpersonal hygiene during the pandemic.6

Study limitations included the cross-sectional design, which prohibited any causal inferences from being drawn, and the inability to distinguish COVID-19’s implications from those of longer-term exposures to harmful conditions. Nevertheless, the results showed that nationally representative surveys, even with COVID-19-related disruptions in data collection, can aid in understanding the pandemic’s outcome.

Supplement.

Data Sharing Statement

References

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Supplementary Materials

Supplement.

Data Sharing Statement


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