Table 1.
Clusters of African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks reported in the Philippines between 16 August 2019 and 20 July 2022, identified using the space–time permutation model of the scan statistics. The results of the directional test for each of the clusters are also shown.
| Space–Time Clusters of ASF Epidemic in the Philippines | Directional Test | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cluster | Radius (km) | Year | Interval | Observed | Expected | ODE | p value | Outbreak | Average Angle | Orientation | Concentration | p-value |
| 1 | 55.86 | 2019 | Aug–Dec | 2850 | 633.98 | 4.50 | <0.00001 | 3124.00 | 81.70 | NNE | 0.28 | 0.001 |
| 2 | 64.90 | 2020 | Mar–Jun | 494 | 89.58 | 5.51 | <0.00001 | 1202.00 | 211.02 | WSW | 0.12 | 0.001 |
| 3 | 91.67 | 2020 | Aug–Oct | 1496 | 361.67 | 4.14 | <0.00001 | 3878.00 | 324.55 | ESE | 0.04 | 0.001 |
| 4 | 399.64 | 2021 | Jan–Apr | 1261 | 310.01 | 4.07 | <0.00001 | 1813.00 | 243.17 | SSW | 0.10 | 0.001 |
| 5 | 107.00 | 2021 | Jul–Oct | 1776 | 295.63 | 6.01 | <0.00001 | 2721.00 | 129.21 | NNW | 0.17 | 0.001 |