TABLE III.

Comparison of the forecasting results with three different models. For each different case of the LDP model, the results in the corresponding row show which parameters are estimated during the whole forecasting experiment. We obtain better forecasting accuracy with the MSG model than with the LDP model and mean-variance model, in general. Furthermore, for the LDP model, the forecasting accuracy decreases as the number of parameters being estimated increases.

Patient 1
		1-std %	2-std %	RMSE	MPE	CORR
MSG Model		75.45	93.30	20.12	12.97	0.5680
	2-parameter	36.16	62.50	21.66	13.65	0.4947
LDP Model	3-parameter	37.05	61.61	21.66	13.71	0.4826
	4-parameter	37.50	63.84	21.83	13.48	0.5028
	11-parameter	36.61	61.16	21.31	14.03	0.4926
Mean-Variance Model		73.66	95.98	24.48	16.97	0
Patient 2
		1-std %	2-std %	RMSE	MPE	CORR
MSG Model		63.29	89.24	33.52	17.35	0.3674
	2-parameter	26.58	44.30	32.75	17.21	0.4524
LDP Model	3-parameter	22.15	42.41	35.05	18.35	0.4364
	4-parameter	22.15	44.30	34.12	17.67	0.4428
	11-parameter	23.42	45.57	33.23	17.30	0.4376
Mean-Variance Model		68.99	90.51	35.54	18.17	0
Patient 3
		1-std %	2-std %	RMSE	MPE	CORR
MSG Model		51.61	96.77	24.27	17.12	0.4759
	2-parameter	26.49	49.01	25.97	16.50	0.3799
LDP Model	3-parameter	29.14	50.99	26.20	16.73	0.3642
	4-parameter	27.15	53.64	26.19	16.47	0.3761
	11-parameter	28.48	50.99	26.42	6.89	0.3586
Mean-Variance Model		58.07	95.16	26.96	18.74	0