TABLE IV.

Comparison of the forecasting results obtained with the MSG, ICUMM, and mean-variance models. The percentages of 1- and 2-stdev bands that capture the true BG measurements with the MSG model is substantially higher than the ICUMM whereas they are smaller than mean-variance model. On the other hand, RMSE and MPE values are closer when comparing all three models, yet the MSG model still provides smaller values for these measures, as well. In addition, the forecasted BG levels by the MSG model give the highest correlation with the BG measurements for all three patients.

Patient 4
		1-std %	2-std %	RMSE	MPE	CORR
MSG Model	Optimization	56.14	89.47	17.27	10.29	0.3177
	MCMC	60.82	91.81	18.60	11.07	0.2341
ICUMM	45.61	80.12	17.35	9.87	0.3232
Mean-Variance Model	59.06	94.15	18.07	10.96	0.1753
Patient 5
		1-std %	2-std %	RMSE	MPE	CORR
MSG Model	Optimization	58.65	83.97	33.27	18.91	0.2751
	MCMC	64.14	88.19	30.95	18.51	0.2773
ICUMM	29.54	53.59	34.45	18.81	0.1427
Mean-Variance Model	64.14	89.87	31.79	19.06	0.1737
Patient 6
		1-std %	2-std %	RMSE	MPE	CORR
MSG Model	Optimization	59.04	87.45	43.16	25.22	0.2859
	MCMC	63.84	91.14	44.78	27.12	0.1859
ICUMM	18.45	38.01	44.77	26.18	0.1374
Mean-Variance Model	63.84	91.14	46.66	28.04	0.1231