Higher CSF stages groups (4–5) show higher HR of clinical progression compared to lower positive stages (reference: 1–3). Progression from CU or MCI at baseline to AD dementia is shown in A-B. Progression from MCI at baseline to AD dementia is shown in C-D. Progression from CU at baseline to MCI is shown in E-F. Kaplan-Meier curves, as well as the number of participants per group and timepoint are shown in A, C and E, respectively. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to calculate HR[95%CI] of higher CSF stages (4–5) compared to the reference (1–3, B, D and F). These analyses were adjusted for age, sex in all cases, and additionally for clinical status at baseline (CU or MCI) if appropriate. Abbreviations: AD, Alzheimer’s disease; CI, confidence interval; CSF, cerebrospinal fluid; HR, hazard ratios; MCI, mild cognitive impairment.