FIGURE 4.

Daily nest flooding probabilities modeled as functions of landscape-level variables (lines) and study plot (akin to observed values; dot size is proportional to the number of nests at each study plot; bar length is proportional to 1 SE), with date held constant (mean serial date = 188). Daily nest flooding probability of Saltmarsh Sparrows was best predicted by an additive combination of (A) maximum observed high tide during the study period (May–August, 2011–2013); and (B) extremity of rare flooding events, as measured by 1% annual exceedance probability level (MHHW = mean higher high water) and serial date.