Increased sandstorm frequency in North China in 2023: Climate change reflection on the Mongolian plateau

There has been a decreasing trend in the average number of days of sandstorms in Beijing over the last 7 decades from ±30 days between 1950 and the 1960s to 3–5 days between 2010 and 2016. The main drivers of this trend include weakening wind speed, increasing vegetation cover, and wetter soils of sandstorm source regions in North China. These changes can be attributed to various factors, including the ecology compensation project, global warming, and internal atmospheric variability. However, sandy and dusty conditions occurred in Beijing over 11 days during the first four months of 2023, exceeding the average between 2018 and 2022 of 4 days and negatively impacting the livelihoods of millions of people. These recent conditions have raised doubts over the effectiveness of the extensive afforestation programs. Mongolia is a major source of dust in East Asia, and it appears highly likely that extreme climate change over Mongolia played a crucial role. Of the 11 days of sand and dust weather that occurred over Beijing in 2023, 10 displayed sources that directly originated from Mongolia, with the only exception of the dust backflow case on April 12th (Figure 1).

Figure 1.

The schematic diagram showing the 24-h backward trajectory of 11 days of sandy and dusty weather at altitude of 1,000 m in Beijing in 2023

This trajectory is based on the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HSPLIT, https://www.ready.noaa.gov/hypub-bin/trajsrc.pl).

A changing climate and anthropogenic activities over the past 2 decades have resulted in increased temperature and below-average rainfall over Mongolia. This in turn has led to reduced vegetation cover and increased bare soil. Dry conditions, in combination with abnormally active spring Mongolian cyclones, have fostered conditions conducive to sandstorms. These sandstorms have transported large quantities of sand and dust to Northern China. An increasing concern has emerged over the impacts of a changing climate on Mongolia due to the sensitivity of the natural environment of this region. Therefore, there is an urgent need for mitigating and adapting to climate change in Mongolia.

Recent warming and drying

There have been steady increases in global mean temperatures in recent decades, particularly in Mongolia. This warming trend in Mongolia has coincided with a significant decreasing trend in mean annual precipitation since the 1990s. Consequently, large regions of Mongolia experienced prolonged and severe drought during the early 2000s. Reconstructions of paleoclimate have shown that the climate over the last 2 decades has been highly different from that in the preceding 2000 years.¹ The changing climate has contributed to the development of a positive feedback loop between drought-related soil moisture deficits and surface warming. A deficit in soil moisture prevents the cooling effects of evaporation, thereby intensifying surface warming by enabling the direct transfer of heat to air. The resulting heatwaves in turn accelerate soil drying. This positive feedback loop has resulted in increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme hot weather along with droughts since the early 2000s. These compound warm and dry conditions are anomalous to the preceding conditions over a quarter of a millennium and are shifting Mongolia to a hotter and drier climate.² To date, the underlying mechanism responsible for this extreme climate change remains uncertain, with particularly high uncertainty in the relative contributions of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability.³

Impacts of a changing climate on sandstorms and desertification

The recent changes in the climate have dramatically exacerbated water deficits and degradation of the ecological environment. Land degradation in Mongolia has become widespread since the increasing trend in socioeconomic development of the region in the 1990s, primarily driven by mineral and agricultural exports.⁴ The combined results of increased temperature, decreased precipitation, and over-grazing-induced land degradation have contributed to increased desertification and sandstorms. The recent degradation of ±70% of Mongolian grassland has coincided with a dramatic increase in sandstorm days by a factor of three since the 1960s.⁵ For example, strong sandstorms that persisted for 2 weeks swept across Mongolia in the spring of 2021, which profoundly impacted 8,000 people and 2,000 households across 14 provinces and severely affected most of East Asia. Consequently, the largest sandstorm recorded over the past 10 years occurred in Beijing, and a warning of “yellow dust” was issued to most parts of South Korea for the first time in a decade. While methods for predicting sandstorms have been improved, the relative contributions of anthropogenic activities to sandstorm frequency remain uncertain. Moreover, there is a lack of systematic research on the impacts of sandstorms, particularly on human health and wind/solar energy conversion systems.

Climate change adaptation and mitigation actions required

Besides for the impacts of a changing climate on ecological deterioration, a recent report by the International Monetary Fund has shown that the livestock population in Mongolia has grown by a factor of three between 1990 and 2020 to levels that far exceed the carrying capacity of the grassland. The consequent overgrazing has exacerbated desertification. The unusually frequent occurrence of sandstorms observed in 2023 may become increasingly likely unless immediate and efficient mitigation measures are enacted. Not taking action may undo much of the progress achieved by various national programs, such as the Three-North Shelter Forestation Project.

An effective adaptive strategy is increasing awareness of risks posed by climate change on public health and establishing an emergency relief system. Insurance products covering the financial risks of climate change to businesses and individuals can also be developed. The impacts of human activities can be mitigated by improving desertification management in sandstorm source regions, primarily by restructuring industries and promoting sustainability practices such as green energy, organic livestock farming, and eco-tourism. Technologies used in the livestock and mining industries need to be improved. There should also be regulation of livestock farming and land use, and overgrazed areas should be restored to grasslands. Providing effective mitigation strategies requires a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and impacts of climate change on Mongolia. Early warning systems should be established to monitor changes in climate and ecosystems. There is also an urgent need for international collaboration to further develop mitigating and adaptive actions, including international cooperation, scientific collaboration, and development and sharing of carbon mitigation technologies.

Published Online: August 12, 2023