Skip to main content
NCBI home page
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health logoLink to Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
. 1987 Sep;41(3):243–250. doi: 10.1136/jech.41.3.243

Determinants of all causes of death in samples of Italian middle-aged men followed up for 25 years.

A Menotti 1, S Mariotti 1, F Seccareccia 1, S Torsello 1, F Dima 1
PMCID: PMC1052630  PMID: 3443819

Abstract

A total of 1712 men aged 40 to 59 years in two rural cohorts of northern and central Italy have been followed up for 25 years after an entry examination in 1960. Forty one individual characteristics have been considered as possible predictors of death in the next 25 years. After exclusion of 55 men with life threatening diseases (cardiovascular and cancer) and of 161 men because of missing measurements, 1495 men have been analysed for relation between entry factors and subsequent death (n = 670). Twelve factors eventually emerged as powerful predictors of future death: in hierarchical order, age, blood pressure, forced expiratory volume, cigarette smoking, xanthelasma, mother life-status, arm circumference, father life-status, shoulder-pelvis ratio, vital capacity, arcus senilis, and serum cholesterol. Discrimination as provided by logistic modelling placed 19.6% of all cases in the upper decile of the estimated risk, 36.8% in the upper quintile, 2.5% in the lowest decile, and 7.1% in the lowest quintile. Out of those located in the lowest decile of risk, 11.4% died within 25 years while the corresponding percentage in the upper decile was 87.3%. Use of the Cox model yielded slightly better coefficients than logistic function.

Full text

PDF
243

Selected References

These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.

  1. Conti S., Farchi G., Menotti A. Coronary risk factors and excess mortality from all causes and specific causes. Int J Epidemiol. 1983 Sep;12(3):301–307. doi: 10.1093/ije/12.3.301. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Dyer A. R., Stamler J., Berkson D. M., Lindberg H. A. Relationship of relative weight and body mass index to 14-year mortality in the Chicago Peoples Gas Company study. J Chronic Dis. 1975 Feb;28(2):109–123. doi: 10.1016/0021-9681(75)90067-3. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Farchi G., Capocaccia R., Verdecchia A., Menotti A., Keys A. Risk factors changes and coronary heart disease in an observational study. Int J Epidemiol. 1981 Mar;10(1):31–40. doi: 10.1093/ije/10.1.31. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  4. Green M. S., Symons M. J. A comparison of the logistic risk function and the proportional hazards model in prospective epidemiologic studies. J Chronic Dis. 1983;36(10):715–723. doi: 10.1016/0021-9681(83)90165-0. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Hofman A., Feinleib M., Garrison R. J., van Laar A. Does change in blood pressure predict heart disease? Br Med J (Clin Res Ed) 1983 Jul 23;287(6387):267–269. doi: 10.1136/bmj.287.6387.267. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Keys A., Menotti A., Aravanis C., Blackburn H., Djordevic B. S., Buzina R., Dontas A. S., Fidanza F., Karvonen M. J., Kimura N. The seven countries study: 2,289 deaths in 15 years. Prev Med. 1984 Mar;13(2):141–154. doi: 10.1016/0091-7435(84)90047-1. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Keys A., Taylor H. L., Blackburn H., Brozek J., Anderson J. T., Simonson E. Mortality and coronary heart disease among men studied for 23 years. Arch Intern Med. 1971 Aug;128(2):201–214. doi: 10.1001/archinte.1971.00310200037002. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Menotti A., Conti S., Dima F., Giampaoli S., Giuli B., Rumi A., Seccareccia F., Signoretti P. Prediction of all causes of death as a function of some factors commonly measured in cardiovascular population surveys. Prev Med. 1983 Mar;12(2):318–325. doi: 10.1016/0091-7435(83)90240-2. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Menotti A., Conti S., Giampaoli S., Mariotti S., Signoretti P. Coronary risk factors predicting coronary and other causes of death in fifteen years. Acta Cardiol. 1980;35(2):107–120. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  10. Raynor W. J., Jr, Shekelle R. B., Rossof A. H., Maliza C., Paul O. High blood pressure and 17-year cancer mortality in the Western Electric Health Study. Am J Epidemiol. 1981 Apr;113(4):371–377. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113105. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Walker S. H., Duncan D. B. Estimation of the probability of an event as a function of several independent variables. Biometrika. 1967 Jun;54(1):167–179. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Woodbury M. A., Manton K. G., Stallard E. Longitudinal analysis of the dynamics and risk of coronary heart disease in the Framingham Study. Biometrics. 1979 Sep;35(3):575–585. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  13. Woodbury M. A., Manton K. G., Stallard E. Longitudinal models for chronic disease risk: an evaluation of logistic multiple regression and alternatives. Int J Epidemiol. 1981 Jun;10(2):187–197. doi: 10.1093/ije/10.2.187. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health are provided here courtesy of BMJ Publishing Group

RESOURCES