Changes in pack features among top-selling cigarettes in the US, 2018 & 2021

Abstract

Introduction:

Cigarette packaging is designed to increase consumer appeal and remains a primary promotional tool in many countries, including the US. This study documented changes in the prevalence of pack characteristics among the top-selling cigarette products in the US in 2018 and 2021.

Methods:

The 50 cigarette packs with the highest national unit sales in US convenience stores in 2018 and 2021 were identified using Nielsen’s Scantrack data and subsequently purchased. Packs were coded for features such as dominant color(s), descriptive text, and promotional language. Descriptive analyses conducted in 2022 weighted by total annual unit sales compared the prevalence of pack characteristics between years.

Results:

Three brands – Marlboro, Newport, and Camel – constituted over 80% of pack sales among the top-selling products. Packs with red as a dominant color grew less popular between years (33.3% vs. 29.5%), while green became more prevalent (25.2% vs. 28.9%), consistent with a rise in the proportion of menthol sales. Prevalence of descriptors such as “flavor” and “fresh” decreased from 46.0% to 39.4% and 9.7% to 5.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, prevalence of promotional language (e.g., rewards programs) increased from 60.9% to 69.0%.

Conclusions:

The use of visual and named colors remains common, which can implicitly communicate sensory or health-related attributes. Moreover, promotions may help recruit and retain consumers in the context of more restrictive tobacco control policies and price increases. Given the strong influence that cigarette packaging exerts on consumers, packaging-focused policies – such as plain packaging laws – may reduce appeal and accelerate declines in cigarette use.

INTRODUCTION

The cigarette pack remains one of the tobacco industry’s primary promotional tools in the US.[1–3] Pack characteristics such as color and text descriptors are particularly influential in shaping consumer perceptions. For example, lighter packaging hues[4,5] and descriptors such as “smooth,” “silver,” and “gold” have been associated with lower risk perceptions[4,6,7] and a more pleasant smoking experience.[7] Similarly, brands that use misleading terms such as “natural,” “organic,” or “additive-free” on cigarette packaging have been rated as more appealing and less harmful than other brands.[8–11]

While several existing studies evaluated changes in cigarette pack design following a specific policy event (e.g., plain packaging laws),[12–14] no studies examined shifts in packaging characteristics over time driven by tobacco industry tactics or changing consumer consumption patterns. This inquiry may shed light on pack features that appeal to consumers and can inform future packaging-focused policies. This study leverages data from the first two time points of a cigarette packaging archive project[15] and documents changes in the prevalence of various pack characteristics among the top-selling cigarette products in the US between 2018 and 2021.

METHODS

The 50 cigarette packs with the highest national unit sales in US convenience stores in 2018 and 2021 were identified using Nielsen’s Scantrack data and subsequently purchased in early 2019 and 2022, respectively. All pack sides were photographed and four members of the research team independently used “open coding” to note all observed packaging features. After harmonizing codes with similar underlying constructs, a final coding instrument was developed to document features including brand, flavor (i.e., menthol), size (e.g., standard, 100s), dominant color(s) (i.e., one or more colors covering at least one-third of the packaging surface), descriptive text (e.g., named colors, “smooth”), and promotional language (e.g., rewards program information). Interrater reliability between two trained coders was high (kappa >0.9) across all measures. Descriptive analyses weighted by total unit sales compared the prevalence of pack characteristics between years, overall and among the top 3 brands: Marlboro, Newport, and Camel. This study was not considered human subjects research.

RESULTS

Data collectors purchased 46 packs from 2018 and 48 from 2021; these pack sales constituted 66% and 68% of total cigarette sales each year, respectively. The 6 packs that could not be found in retailers were among the lowest-selling packs in the sample (i.e., ranked 42 or higher) and collectively represented less than 5% of sales. Among the top-selling packs, 3 brands – Marlboro, Newport, and Camel – made up over 80% of the market, with greater consolidation over time (Table 1). While overall sales fell between years, the share of menthol cigarette sales grew from 29.3% to 33.8%.

Table 1.

Prevalence^a of packaging features among top-selling^b cigarettes in US convenience stores, 2018 & 2021

Variables	Overall		Marlboro		Newport		Camel
	2018	2021	2018	2021	2018	2021	2018	2021
Packs (n)	46	48	18	23	4	4	6	6
Units sold (in millions)	4,859	4,437	2,651	2,670	751	739	508	403
PRODUCT INFORMATION (%)
Brand
Marlboro	54 .6	60 .2
Newport	15.5	16.7
Camel	10.5	9.1
L&M	6.5	4.6
Pall Mall	6.6	3.8
American Spirit	2.1	2.4
Kool	0.9	1.7
Maverick	1.0	0.9
Winston	1.5	0.0
Parliament	0.8	0.7
Flavor
Menthol (regular)	22 .4	27 .5	8. 2	13 .6	84 .9	88 .3	0. 0	0. 0
Menthol capsule	6.9	6.3	1.6	2.0	0.0	0.0	57.4	56.1
PACKAGING FEATURES (%)
Size category
King/Standard	65 .8	64 .5	69 .5	66 .9	46 .9	45 .7	92 .6	91 .9
100s	31.6	33.0	25.7	29	53.2	54.3	7.4	8.1
72s	2.6	2.5	4.8	4.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dominant color(s)c
Red	33 .3	29 .5	34 .1	32 .5	15 .1	11 .7	32 .9	18 .3
Green	25.2	28.9	9.8	7.5	84.9	88.3	18.0	56.1
Gold	27.0	27.5	46.3	44.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Black	12.7	13.1	12.3	13.2	0.0	0.0	57.4	56.1
Blue	11.1	10.9	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.0	49.1	63.6
Silver	6.5	9.0	11.9	12.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	18.1
Yellow	5.6	5.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	42.6	43.9
Color named	46.6	46.5	57.7	59.3	0.0	0.0	30.0	43.8
Gold	21.8	22.4	38.6	35.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Black	4.9	8.0	8.9	13.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Blue	6.2	5.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.7	25.6
Silver	6.0	5.7	7.1	6.7	0.0	0.0	20.3	18.1
Green	4.6	5.2	6.8	8.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Red	4.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Yellow	1.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Descriptors
Flavor	46 .0	39 .4	65 .2	58 .8	0. 0	0. 0	100.0	43 .9
Smooth	28.7	29.0	48.0	45.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Mellow	15.0	14.9	25.3	22.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Fresh	9.7	5.2	6.8	8.7	0.0	0.0	57.4	0.0
Natural	3.6	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Promotional languaged	60.9	69.0	98.1	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.1

^aAnalyses weighted by annual unit (pack) sales;

^bProducts in the sample constituted 66% and 68% of the total US convenience store market in 2018 and 2021, respectively;

^cDominant color(s) were defined as non-white colors that covered at least one-third of the pack area;

^dPromotional language included price discounts, information about rewards programs, and/or special offers

Packs with red as a dominant color grew less popular between years (33.3% vs. 29.5%), while green became more prevalent (25.2% vs. 28.9%), consistent with the rising share of menthol sales. Of note, green dominant coloring on Camel packs increased from 18.0% to 56.1% of the brand’s top-selling pack sales, driven by a colorful redesign of the Camel Crush line (Figure 1). Whereas black coloring on packs was stable between years, prevalence of the descriptor “Black” increased. This trend is explained by the rising popularity of Marlboro Black – the only products in the sample using this color descriptor – which constituted 13.2% of the brand’s top pack sales in 2021, versus 8.2% in 2018.

Figure 1.

Examples of changes in Camel Crush pack designs from 2018 to 2021

Prevalence of nearly every other text descriptor assessed declined; most notably, prevalence of “flavor” and “fresh” decreased from 46.0% to 39.4% and 9.7% to 5.2%, respectively. While this trend is primarily attributed to fewer sales of Marlboro packs that use this language (e.g., “Smooth Original Flavor”), the redesign of Camel Crush was also a key driver. For example, in 2018, one Camel Crush pack – the 13^th best-selling pack – displayed “Regular > Fresh” and “Choose the moment, change the flavor, menthol on demand.” In 2021, this text was replaced with more literal language: “Non-menthol > Menthol” and “One crush, changes non-menthol to menthol.” Finally, prevalence of promotional language increased from 60.9% to 69.0% and primarily consisted of Marlboro Rewards program information.

DISCUSSION

While the proportion of pack sales with descriptors such as “flavor,” “mellow,” and “fresh” declined over time, this text is still prevalent on the most popular cigarette products. Research assessing how these terms are perceived by consumers is warranted. Use of visual and named colors, which can implicitly communicate sensory or health-related attributes and are known to appeal to younger consumers,[4–7,16] remained common. Increased sales of Marlboro Black - a descriptor that conveys sophistication according to industry documents[17] – is noteworthy, as it may combat consumers’ perceived stigmatization of cigarettes. This study also found that the prevalence of pack sales with promotional elements increased, which may serve to recruit and retain consumers in the context of more restrictive tobacco control policies and price increases. Often, observed pack changes were driven by shifts in the popularity of certain products between years; occasionally, changes were the result of packaging redesigns (e.g., Camel Crush).

Notably, menthol sales constituted a higher percentage of overall sales among the top-selling packs in 2021 versus 2018, consistent with research documenting stable rates of menthol consumption amid declines in overall cigarette sales.[18]. This trend may be driven by a variety of factors, including aggressive marketing of menthol and the association between menthol use and increased initiation, progression to regular use, and reduced cessation at the population level.[19]

Limitations

First, sales estimates were from Nielsen’s convenience store database, so results are not generalizable to all tobacco retailers. Leading brands and products in other channels may differ from those sold in convenience stores. Nearly 65% of US cigarette sales, however, occur in convenience stores.[20] Second, it was not feasible to purchase every cigarette pack in the Nielsen dataset. As such, the analysis represents only the top-selling packs, which constitute twothirds of all convenience stores sales. It is possible that the design elements of the remaining packs sold in convenience stores differ from the top-selling cigarettes, but findings highlight packaging to which consumers are broadly exposed. Third, 2018 and 2021 correspond with the first two time points of an ongoing packaging archive project; different or longer date ranges may have resulted in different findings. Fourth, there was a short lag between the end of the Nielsen data years and the acquisition of products (i.e., early months of the subsequent calendar years), so it is possible that some design elements changed during that period. Nevertheless, findings revealed the dynamic nature of this marketing vehicle. Indeed, the 4-year period analyzed captured a major packaging redesign for Camel Crush and the increasing popularity of on-pack promotions. Continued surveillance of cigarette packaging is critical to document the implementation of other strategic marketing initiatives, particularly in the context of an evolving policy environment (e.g., FDA’s proposed plan to ban menthol).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the strong influence that cigarette packaging exerts on consumers, particularly the prevalent design elements identified in this study, 16 countries to date have implemented plain/standardized cigarette packaging laws to reduce product appeal.[21,22] Although this policy is gaining traction beyond these early adopting nations, most countries – including the US – largely cede control of pack design to the tobacco industry. The US Food & Drug Administration has banned misleading terminology such as “light,” “mild,” and “low-tar” on cigarette packs,[23] and more recently, terms such as “additive-free,”[24] but stronger policy action is needed to further reduce consumer appeal and address misconceptions regarding product risk. Stricter packaging-focused policies at the federal and local levels, and ideally, plain packaging laws and the implementation of graphic warning labels, may help accelerate declines in cigarette use and mitigate the health burden of smoking.