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European Journal of Medical Research logoLink to European Journal of Medical Research
. 2024 Jan 17;29:55. doi: 10.1186/s40001-024-01639-4

Risk of flare or relapse in patients with immune-mediated diseases following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Mahya Shabani 1,#, Parnian Shobeiri 1,2,3,4,#, Shadi Nouri 5, Zahra Moradi 6, Robel Assefa Amenu 6, Mohammad-Mehdi Mehrabi Nejad 7,, Nima Rezaei 3,4,
PMCID: PMC10792904  PMID: 38229141

Abstract

Background

Patients with autoimmune and immune-mediated diseases (AI-IMD) are at greater risk of COVID-19 infection; therefore, they should be prioritized in vaccination programs. However, there are concerns regarding the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in terms of disease relapse, flare, or exacerbation. In this study, we aimed to provide a more precise and reliable vision using systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

PubMed-MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for original articles reporting the relapse/flare in adult patients with AI-IMD between June 1, 2020 and September 25, 2022. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted to investigate the sources of heterogeneity. Statistical analysis was performed using R software.

Results

A total of 134 observations of various AI-IMDs across 74 studies assessed the rate of relapse, flare, or exacerbation in AI-IMD patients. Accordingly, the crude overall prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation was 6.28% (95% CI [4.78%; 7.95%], I2 = 97.6%), changing from 6.28% (I2 = 97.6%) to 6.24% (I2 = 65.1%) after removing the outliers. AI-IMD patients administering mRNA, vector-based, and inactive vaccines showed 8.13% ([5.6%; 11.03%], I2 = 98.1%), 0.32% ([0.0%; 4.03%], I2 = 93.5%), and 3.07% ([1.09%; 5.9%], I2 = 96.2%) relapse, flare, or exacerbation, respectively (p-value = 0.0086). In terms of disease category, nephrologic (26.66%) and hematologic (14.12%) disorders had the highest and dermatologic (4.81%) and neurologic (2.62%) disorders exhibited to have the lowest crude prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation (p-value < 0.0001).

Conclusion

The risk of flare/relapse/exacerbation in AI-IMD patients is found to be minimal, especially with vector-based vaccines. Vaccination against COVID-19 is recommended in this population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40001-024-01639-4.

Keywords: Autoimmune disease, mRNA, Vector-based vaccine, COVID-19, Vaccine

Introduction

Among the general population, patients with autoimmune and immune-mediated diseases (AI-IMD) are at greater risk of COVID-19 infection due to their underlying disease-related immune dysfunction along with the immunosuppressive treatments [1]. Increased morbidity, mortality, and costs are attributed to AI-IMD flares [2] highlighting the significance of disease activity control during this pandemic. There is also evidence supporting disease relapse after COVID-19 in MS patients [3].

Vaccination is considered the best strategy to effectively reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality [4]. Approved vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are categorized into different main types including mRNA, vector-based, and inactive [5]. Concern regarding the vaccine’s suboptimal efficacy and safety, especially vaccine-induced flare, is shown to have the strongest association with vaccine hesitancy among AI-IMD patients [6]. Although vaccines are generally safe, several studies reported SLE flare following influenza and papilloma vaccines [79].

There are different technologies for developing SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, including inactivated and nucleic-acid vaccines composed of mRNA or plasmid or viral DNA vectors, which code for a specific antigen. To achieve a robust long-lasting immunogenicity in both humoral and cellular immune systems, an adjuvant component is added to the antigen activating three pathways [10]. Major histocompatibility complex–T cell receptor (MHC–TCR) interaction (specific), costimulatory signal to TCR (non-specific), and pro-inflammatory signals (non-specific) using cytokines to develop Th1, Th2, and Th17 from T lymphocytes [11]. Adjuvants also trigger innate immunity through toll-like receptors (TLRs) [12]. Although these components are critical for robust immunity, they might also initiate an undesired immune response and trigger autoimmune disease relapse [13]. Besides, the abundance of cytokines produced during this process can result in the reactivation of reminiscent self-reacting lymphocyte clones through bystander activation and blunt the mechanisms of tolerance [14].

Data on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine safety in this vulnerable population are limited as they were widely excluded from the original vaccine trials; however, it is increasingly investigated through different clinical trials [15, 16]. Despite the ample evidence in the literature investigating the immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines in AI-IMD patients, their safety profile, particularly disease flare/relapse, has been less studied [5, 17]. There is inconsistency regarding the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in AI-IMD patients; hence, we aimed to provide a more precise and reliable vision using systematic review and meta-analysis.

Materials and methods

Protocol and literature search

This systematic review and meta-analysis study was carried out according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

PubMed-MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for original articles reporting the relapse/flare in adult patients with AI-IMD between June 1, 2020, and October 1, 2022. The search terms were as follows: ((COVID) OR (COVID-19) OR (SARS-CoV-2) OR (novel coronavirus)) AND ((vaccine) OR (vaccination)) OR (vaccinated)) AND ((Flare) OR (relapse) OR (Flare-up) OR (exacerbation) OR (recurrence)) AND ((autoimmune) OR (rheumatology) OR (rheumatologic disease) OR (Rheumatoid arthritis) OR (RA) OR (Systemic lupus erythematosus) OR (SLE) OR (Guillain–Barre syndrome) OR (Multiple sclerosis) OR (Myasthenia gravis) OR (Psoriasis) OR (Inflammatory bowel disease) OR (Graves' disease) OR (Sjögren's syndrome) OR (Hashimoto's thyroiditis) OR (vasculitis) OR (Crohn's disease) OR (ulcerative colitis) OR (Nephropathy) OR (Pemphigus Vulgaris) OR (bullous pemphigoid) OR (Immune thrombocytopenia) OR (dermatomyositis) OR (polymyositis)).

Two reviewers independently conducted the literature search, and any disagreement was resolved by discussion or consultation with a third expert. The authors were not blinded to the data of the articles, including the author, institution, or journal, while screening studies or extracting data. EndNote version × 20 was used for literature management.

Eligibility criteria

Studies exploring the prevalence of disease relapse/flare/exacerbation following COVID-19 vaccination in AI-IMD patients were eligible for inclusion. The included studies met the following criteria: (1) population: studies on AI-IMD patients. AI-IMD patients included patients with (a) rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (including rheumatoid arthritis, SLE, vasculitis, ankylosing spondylitis, dermatomyositis, polymyositis, Systemic sclerosis, Behcet syndrome, etc.); (b) neurologic diseases (including MS, myasthenia gravis, Guillain–Barré syndrome, demyelinating polyneuropathy, etc.); (c) gastroenterologic diseases (including Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, etc.); (d) dermatologic diseases (including Pemphigus Vulgaris, Bullous Pemphigoid, Psoriasis, etc.); (e) hematologic diseases (including immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP); mixed cryoglobulinaemic vasculitis, etc.); and (f) nephrologic diseases (including nephrotic syndrome). (2) Intervention: COVID-19 vaccination. (3) Study design: all cross-sectional, observational, retrospective, and prospective studies were included. (4) Outcomes: the primary outcome of this study was disease relapse/flare/exacerbation following COVID-19 vaccination in AI-IMD patients after COVID-19 vaccination. The exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) case reports or case series patients; (2) non-original studies including reviews and editorials; (3) partially overlapping patient cohorts; (4) not reporting the relapse/flare percentage after COVID-19 vaccination; (5) articles not written in English; and (6) non-human studies. Two reviewers independently screened the literature in consensus.

Data extraction

Two groups of reviewers independently evaluated eligible studies and recorded the following data: the first author, publication year, country of origin, study design, studied disease, inclusion and exclusion criteria, study sample size, the number of AI-IMD patients, female percentage, mean (SD)/median [IQR] of age, flare or relapse or exacerbation and its percentage, and the type of vaccine. Any disagreement in data extraction was resolved by consensus or consultation with a third expert.

Quality assessment

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) quality assessment tool [18] was employed to assess the quality of the included studies. The scores of 11–14, 6–10, and 0–5 were considered good, fair, and poor quality, respectively. Furthermore, two independent expert reviewers assessed the included studies in terms of methodology; any conflict was resolved by consensus.

Statistical analysis

We used the 'metaprop' function and the Der Simonian and Laird random-effect model to assess the pooled effect of the prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation in AI-IMD patients. A forest plot was created to depict the summary of meta-analysis findings and heterogeneity. The funnel plot and Egger's regression tests were used to screen for publication bias, with a p-value of < 0.05 regarded to suggest probable publication bias. Cochrane's Q statistic was used to assess between-study heterogeneity. I2 was used to assess between-study heterogeneity, with values of 0 representing no heterogeneity, and 25, 50, and 75% representing low, medium, and increasing heterogeneity, respectively. All computations and visualizations were carried out using R version 4.2.1 (R Core Team [2020]. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). We used the following packages: “meta” (version 4.17–0), “metafor” (version 2.4–0), “dmetar” (version 0.0–9), and “tidyverse” (version 1.3.0). All forest and funnel plots were designed using R. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Overall prevalence of relapse/flare/exacerbation in AI-IMD patients AI-IMD

The study selection flowchart is presented in Fig. 1. A total of 134 observations of various AI-IMDs across 74 studies [1992] assessed the rate of relapse, flare, or exacerbation in AI-IMD patients (Table 1). Accordingly, the overall crude prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation was 6.28% (95% CI 4.78%; 7.95%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 97.6%, p-value = 0, Fig. 2a).

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

Study selection process according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guideline. After evaluating the total of 595 studies, 74 studies met the eligibility criteria and used in qualitative and quantitative analyses

Table 1.

Details of the data presented by the included studies

First author Year Country Study design Disease category Vaccine category Total sample size Female% Age
Mean (SD) Median [IQR]
Achiron A 2021 Israel Observational Neurologic (MS) mRNA 555 65.6
Adája E. Baars 2022 Netherlands Prospective Cohort Neurologic mRNA and vector-based 403
Alonso R 2021 Argentina Cross-sectional Neurologic (MS) All 393 82.4 41.5 (11.8)
Alroughani R 2022 Kuwait Cross-sectional Neurologic (MS) mRNA and vector-based 647
Apaydin H 2022 Turkey Retrospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (Behcet syndrome) mRNA and inactive 287 45.3 42 [34, 50]
Assawasaksaku T 2022 Thailand Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) All 94
Assawasaksakul T 2022 Thailand Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA 71 95.8 39 (11.9)
Barbhaiya M 2021 USA Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA/vector-based 1101 80.6 60.8 (14.2)
Barbhaiya M 2021 USA Retrospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA and vector-based 183 94 52.5 (14.2)
Bixio R 2021 Italy Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA 77 80.5 62.2 (13.2)
Brunn JA 2022 USA Prospective Cohort Neurologic (MS) All 292 81.4 50.4 (12.4)
Cherian S 2021 Germany Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA 513 82.65 58.46 (10.28)
Connolly CM 2022 USA Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA 1377 92 47 [37, 59]
Conticini E 2022 Italy Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (idiopathic inflammatory myopathies) mRNA and vector-based 119 73.1 58 [47, 66]
Crickx E 2021 UK Prospective Cohort Hematologic (ITP) mRNA and vector-based 92 59.8 69 [24, 90]
Czarnowska A 2022 Poland Cross-sectional Neurologic (MS) mRNA and vector-based 2261 70.5 42.6
Delvino F 2021 Italy Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (Giant cell arteritis) mRNA 81 67.9 75.8 (6.9)
Dinoto A 2021 Italy Prospective Cohort Neurologic (MS) mRNA 66
Doron A 2022 Israel Retrospective Cohort Neurologic (myasthenia gravis) mRNA 160 44.4 57.2 (18)
Dreyer-Alster S 2022 Israel Prospective Cohort Neurologic (myasthenia gravis) mRNA 211 62
Elkharsawi A 2022 Germany Cross-sectional Gastroenterologic All 914 64.3 44 [34, 56]
Ellul p 2022 36 European countries Cross-sectional Gastroenterologic All 3272 60.4 43 [33, 54]
Etemadifar M 2022 Iran Retrospective Cohort Neurologic (MS) Inactive 517 76.79 37.81 (8.74)
Fan Y 2021 China Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases Inactive 1507 77.4 39 [31, 51]
Fornaro M 2022 Italy Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA 452 83.3 53 (4)
Fragoulis G 2022 Greece Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases All 561 75.6 54.4 (14.8)
Gaur P 2021 India Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases Vector-based 280 83.3 47 (13)
Geisen M 2021 Germany Prospective Cohort AI-IMD mRNA 26 64.3 50.5 (15.8)
Gerosa M 2022 Italy Retrospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA and vector-based 452 92.25 48 [35, 56]
Giuffrida G 2022 Italy Prospective Cohort Hematologic (ITP) mRNA 32 47 [19, 73]
Huang YW 2021 Taiwan Prospective Cohort Dermatologic (Psoriasis) mRNA and vector-based 83
Ishizuchi K 2022 Japan Prospective Cohort Neurologic (myasthenia gravis) mRNA and vector-based 343 65.3 57
Isnardi C 2022 Argentina Retrospective Cohort AI-IMD All 1234 79 57.8 (14.1)
Izmirly P 2022 USA Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA and vector-based 90 87.8 45.5 (14.2)
Kavosh A 2022 Iran Cross-sectional Neurologic (MS) Inactive 1538 74.8 40.45 (9.74)
Kianfar N 2022 Iran Cross-sectional Dermatologic Vector-based and inactive 446 54.7 50.2 (12.5)
Larsen E 2022 Denmark Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA and vector-based 123 89.4 51 [42, 63]
Lev-Tzion R 2022 Israel Cross-sectional Gastroenterologic mRNA 4946 51 51 (16)
Li H 2022 UK case-crossover Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (Gout) mRNA/vector-based 5904 14.5 63.1 (14.7)
Li X 2021 China Cross-sectional Gastroenterologic mRNA 941
Li X 2021 China Retrospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RA) mRNA/inactive 5493
Machado PM 2022 UK (data from 30 countries) Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA and vector-based 5121 70 61.6 (15.2)
Mohanasundaram K 2022 India Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases Vector-based/inactive 2092 78.7 47.5 (13.17)
Mok CC 2022 Hong Kong Retrospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA and inactive 914 92.5 48.6 (14.0)
Mormile I 2022 Italy Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA 41 87 26 (11)
Musetti C 2022 Italy Retrospective Cohort Nephrologic mRNA and vector-based 38 26.3 45.9 (19.1)
Musumeci M 2021 Italy Prospective Cohort Dermatologic (Psoriasis) mRNA 50 44 Range: 33–83 years)
Nakafero G 2022 UK Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA and vector-based 3554 71.8 65 (15)
Nakagawa n 2022 Japan Cross-sectional Nephrologic mRNA 55 44.4
Ozdede 2022 Turkey Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA/inactive 256 37.9 43.21 (10.13)
Özgen Z 2022 Turkey Cross-sectional Dermatologic (pemphigus vulgaris) Inactive/mRNA/vector-based 244 52.9
Pan CX 2022 USA Retrospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (dermatomyositis) All 304 83.2
Pinte L 2021 Romania Prospective Cohort AI-IMD mRNA/vector-based 416 81.5 50 [21, 88]
Rider L 2022 USA Retrospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases/Gastroenterologic/Dermatologic All 5619 85.7 55.5 [44.4,65.4]
Sahraian MA 2021 Iran Cross-sectional Neurologic (MS) Inactive 583 78 36.2 (8.2)
Sattui S 2021 USA Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases All 2860 86.7 55.3
Shapiro Ben David S 2021 Israel Retrospective Cohort Neurologic (Guilain barre) mRNA 702 48 53 (18)
Shechtman L 2022 Israel Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA 273 54.5 41 (15.5)
Spinelli FR 2022 Italy observational Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA 126 83.3 51 [34, 68]
Sprow G 2022 USA Retrospective Cohort Dermatologic mRNA/vector-based 402 81.6 58 [95%CI 56, 95%CI 60]
Stastna D 2022 Czech Republic Retrospective Cohort Neurologic (MS) mRNA and vector-based 1661 72.37 48.49 (11.43)
Tang Q 2022 China Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) Inactive 378
Trunk AD 2021 USA Retrospective Cohort Hematologic (Chronic graft-versus-host disease (CGVHD)) mRNA 34
Tzioufas AG 2021 Greece Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases mRNA 605 71.4 58 [range: 16–91] [,]
Urra Pincheira A 2022 Canada Retrospective Cohort Neurologic (myasthenia gravis) mRNA and vector-based 200 48.5 64.3 (13.9)
Vacchi C 2022 Italy Cross-sectional Hematologic (Mixed cryoglobulinaemic vasculitis (MCV)) All 416 68 70.42 (11.75)
van Dijk W 2021 Netherlands Retrospective Cohort Hematologic (ITP) 85 53 48 (17)
Visentini M 2022 Italy Prospective Cohort Hematologic mRNA and vector-based 71
Visser C 2021 Netherlands observational Hematologic (ITP) mRNA and vector-based 418
Weaver KN 2021 USA Prospective Cohort Gastroenterologic mRNA and vector-based 3316 71.7 43.7 (15.1)
Woolley P 2022 UK Prospective Cohort Hematologic (ITP) mRNA and vector-based 294
Yoshida Y 2022 Japan Prospective Cohort Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA 74 96 50 (14)
Zavala-Flores E 2021 Peru observational Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (SLE) mRNA 100 94 38.9
Zeng HQ 2022 China Cross-sectional Rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases Inactive 80 70 40.85 (9.50)

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Forest plots representing the prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation in all patients with autoimmune and immune-mediated diseases (AI-IMD) before (A) and after (B) removing the outliers and based on the type of AI-IMD disease (C) following the COVID-19 vaccination. The prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation was statistically significantly different across the six disease categories overall, as shown by a p-value of < 0.0001

After removing the outliers [1924, 26, 27, 31, 3335, 4046, 5052, 5458, 60, 62, 63, 65, 6870, 7477, 7982, 87, 88, 90, 91], the prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation was 6.24% (95% CI 5.57%; 6.95%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 65.1%, p-value < 0.0001, Fig. 2b).

Regarding the publication bias, Egger’s test did not corroborate funnel plot asymmetry as well as the illustrated funnel plot (p-value = 0.27, Fig. 3).

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Funnel plots before (A) and after (B) removing the outliers representing no publication bias

Subgroup analysis

By vaccine category

Considering the administered vaccine category as mRNA, vector-based, and inactive vaccines, we carried out a subgroup analysis consisting of 47, 10, and 15 observations, respectively. AI-IMD patients administering mRNA, vector-based, and inactive vaccines showed 8.13% (95% CI 5.6%; 11.03%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 98.1%), 0.32% (95% CI 0.0%; 4.03%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 93.5%), and 3.07% (95% CI 1.09%; 5.9%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 96.2%) relapse, flare, or exacerbation, respectively (Fig. 4a; Table 2). Overall, a p-value of 0.0086 demonstrated a significant statistical difference in the prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation between these three vaccine categories. Of note, some studies utilized a mixture of vaccine platforms, and accordingly, they were not eligible to enter as an observation in the proposed subgroup meta-analysis. Additionally, the results of the pair-wised analysis of the vaccine category are stated in Table 2, showing that only mRNA vs. inactivated vaccine platforms have a statistically significant difference in the prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation.

Fig. 4.

Fig. 4

Forest plots representing the prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation based on the type of vaccine in all patients with autoimmune and immune-mediated diseases (AI-IMD) (p-value = 0.0086) (A), patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (p-value = 0.0882) (B), and neurologic (p-value = 0.0108) (C) autoimmune diseases following the COVID-19 vaccination

Table 2.

Results of between-group meta-analyses based on type of vaccine and disease category

Sub-group Comparison No. studies No. participants No. events Meta-analysis Heterogeneity
Effect size (%) 95% Confidence interval (%) p value I2 (%) p value
Type of vaccine pair-wised mRNA vs. inactivated 38 23,028 2409 6.58 4.57–8.89 0.0036 98.2 0
mRNA vs. vector 33 21,124 2468 6.60 4.34–9.19 0.0788 97.9 0
Vector vs. inactivated 17 13,538 651 1.37 0.11–3.51 0.5969 95.8  < 0.0001
Disease category Rheumatologic and musculoskeletal 34 43,894 3020 7.25 5.2–9.58  < 0.0001 96.1 0
Gastroenterological 6 9832 1395 7.86 1.61–18.11 99.7
Dermatological 6 2386 138 4.81 1.29–9.70 89.7
Neurological 16 12,212 473 2.62 1.49–4.04 95.2
Nephrological 2 93 27 26.66 8.16–50.59 82.1
Hematologic 8 1186 150 14.12 3.77–28.39 95.0

Statistically significant values (p < 0.05) are in bold

By disease category

The sample sizes of the included studies in the present systematic review and meta-analysis were heterogenous as they were as follows: rheumatic and musculoskeletal, gastroenterologic, dermatologic, neurologic, nephrologic, and hematologic disorders. To deal with the existing heterogeneity due to the disease category of the participants, we aimed to perform a subgroup meta-analysis based on their disease types. Fig. 2c and Table 2 show the proportion of relapse, flare, or exacerbation in each disease category, along with the number of observations. As illustrated, nephrologic disorders had the highest relapse, flare, or exacerbation prevalence. Thereafter, hematologic, gastroenterologic, and rheumatic disorders showed 14.12%, 7.86%, and 7.25% relapse, flare, or exacerbation, respectively. Moreover, dermatologic and neurologic disorders exhibited to have the lowest crude prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation at 4.81% and 2.62%, respectively. The prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation was statistically significantly different across the six disease categories overall, as shown by a p-value of < 0.0001. Table 2 shows complete statistical indices for this meta-analysis.

Rheumatologic and musculoskeletal diseases by vaccine category

Thirty-nine observations concluded from 22 studies [24, 2729, 31, 32, 35, 43, 44, 46, 59, 60, 63, 65, 70, 77, 78, 81, 83, 9092] were eligible to enter the subgroup meta-analysis of vaccine category among patients with rheumatologic and musculoskeletal disorders. Patients administered with mRNA vaccines showed a higher prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation at 8.78% (95% CI 6.22%; 11.72%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 92.1%), and vector-based vaccines demonstrated to have the lowest rates of relapse, flare, or exacerbation as 1.59% (95% CI 0%; 6.09%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 95.2%). Additionally, administering vaccines on an inactive platform was shown to lead to a prevalence of 4.51% (95% CI 1.13%; 9.78%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 94.7%) (Fig. 4b; Table 2). Testing for subgroup differences with a p-value of 0.0882 confirmed that the existing between-group difference was not statistically significant. Furthermore, the funnel plot was symmetric, showing no publication bias (Additional file 1: Fig. S1a).

Neurologic diseases by vaccine category

Thirteen observations of nine studies [1921, 3739, 42, 54, 76] were included in this analysis. Therefore, we conducted a subgroup meta-analysis of the vaccine category among participants with neurologic disorders. The prevalence of relapse, flare, or exacerbation in mRNA and inactive groups was as follows, respectively: 2.71% (95% CI 0.89%; 5.32%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 84.7%), 0.7% (95% CI 0.44%; 0.99%, test of heterogeneity: I2 = 0.0%) (Fig. 4c; Table 2). A p-value of 0.0108 implies a statistically significant difference between the mRNA and inactive vaccine groups. Also, the funnel plot was symmetric, indicating no publication bias (Additional file 1: Fig. S1b).

Quality assessment of included studies

Quality assessment of the included studies is presented in Additional file 1: Table S1. The majority of the studies (n = 65) were of good quality and 9 had fair quality.

Discussion

Our findings confirm the minimal risk (6.28%) of relapse/flare/exacerbation in AI-IMD patients after vaccination against COVID-19. This risk was minimal in patients with neurologic or dermatologic autoimmune diseases or who were vaccinated with vector-based vaccines.

Although there is a risk of relapse/flare/exacerbation after COVID-19 vaccination, several studies have shown higher rates of relapse/flare of underlying AI-IMD after COVID-19 [93, 94]. The risk of post-COVID-19 flare in patients with IBD and Takayasu arteritis was 9.8% and 28.5%, respectively. Besides, the risk of flares after COVID-19 and vaccination in patients with MS was 12.8% and 7.7%, respectively, confirming the lower risk of flare after vaccination compared to COVID-19. Of note, COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality are significantly higher in unvaccinated AI-IMD patients [95, 96]. Putting all together, vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 in AI-IMD patients not only minimizes post-COVID-19 morbidity and mortality but also has a lower risk of flare compared to infection.

The impact of COVID-19 on the immune system is significant, highlighting the development of autoantibodies in infected individuals. Notably, patients with COVID-19 have been reported to develop antinuclear antibodies (ANA) with a "nucleolar" immunofluorescence pattern, a recognized marker of scleroderma with interstitial lung disease. This association is particularly observed in individuals with more severe pulmonary conditions [97, 98]. Additionally, the development of other autoantibodies, such as anti-platelet factor 4 (anti-PF4), is related to COVID-associated immune thrombocytopenia [99]. The exploration of these autoantibodies contributes to a better understanding of the immunological dysregulation associated with COVID-19.

All-cause costs at 90 days after severe SLE flare is reported to be $27,468 in the United States in 2021 [100]. Besides the complications the patients will experience, the vaccination will decrease the burden on the healthcare system by minimizing both SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease relapse-related hospitalization and diagnostic and therapeutic costs. Hence, international vaccination protocols should recommend booster vaccines for this vulnerable population.

Although all vaccine types showed a low risk of flare/relapse/exacerbation in AI-IMD patients, patients who received vector-based vaccines less experienced flare/relapse/exacerbation. The mechanism of immunity induction is different in mRNA and vector-based vaccines, especially in AI-IMD patients [5]. Induced IgG and neutralizing antibodies are more pronounced after mRNA priming, whereas cellular immunity (CD4 and CD8 T cell levels) were higher after vector priming [101]. This more prominent humoral response after mRNA vaccination might be the main reason for the higher relapse rate following this vaccine type.

Our findings support the continued vaccination in AI-IMD patients and provide safety information for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. We believe that the benefits of vaccination greatly outweigh the risks and are vital in controlling the pandemic. We recommend physicians strictly follow the patients with AI-IMD after vaccination to ensure timely diagnosis of potential flare/relapse to maximize the patient's outcome. In addition, the scarcity of data in some groups such as nephrology diseases might lead to statistically significant results; though its clinical significance needs more robust evidence. Of note, the booster dose administration in patients who experienced relapse/flare after any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose should be investigated more. Lastly, we excluded articles not written in English and did not search grey literature reducing the analysis efficiency.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the risk of flare/relapse/exacerbation in AI-IMD patients is found to be minimal. Vaccination against COVID-19 is recommended in this population, especially with vector-based vaccines.

Supplementary Information

40001_2024_1639_MOESM1_ESM.docx (217.4KB, docx)

Additional file 1: Table S1. Quality assessment using NIH tool. Figure S1. Funnel plot representing no publication bias in subgroup of patients with rheumatologic and musculoskeletal (A) and neurologic diseases (B).

Acknowledgements

Not applicable.

Author contributions

The conception and design of the study: MS, PS, MM, NR; acquisition of data: MS, SN, RA, MM; drafting the article: MS, MM, PS; revising it critically for important intellectual content: MS, MM, PS, NR; final approval of the version to be submitted: NR, MM. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Funding

The corresponding author (Nima Rezaei) received a grant from the Tehran University of Medical Sciences (64965) to support this study. Other authors have no conflict of interest or funding source to disclose.

Availability of data and materials

The authors stated that all information provided in this article could be shared.

Declarations

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare that there is no competing interest regarding the publication of this manuscript.

Footnotes

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Mahya Shabani and Parnian Shobeiri contributed equally to this work.

Contributor Information

Mohammad-Mehdi Mehrabi Nejad, Email: 2m.mehrabi@gmail.com.

Nima Rezaei, Email: rezaei_nima@yahoo.com.

References

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Associated Data

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Supplementary Materials

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Additional file 1: Table S1. Quality assessment using NIH tool. Figure S1. Funnel plot representing no publication bias in subgroup of patients with rheumatologic and musculoskeletal (A) and neurologic diseases (B).

Data Availability Statement

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