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. 2024 Mar 25;40(3):e00076723. doi: 10.1590/0102-311XPT076723

Relationship between air temperature and dengue incidence: time series study in Minas Gerais, Brazil (2010-2019)

Relação entre temperatura do ar e incidência de dengue: estudo de séries temporais em Minas Gerais, Brasil (2010-2019)

Relación entre la temperatura del aire y la incidencia del dengue: estudio de series temporales en Minas Gerais, Brasil (2010-2019)

João Pedro Medeiros Gomes 1, Igor Magaton Ribas 1, Pedro Augusto Rosa Valadares 1, Lucas Santos Jardim 1, Mário Círio Nogueira 1, Cássia de Castro Martins Ferreira 2, Aripuanã Sakurada Aranha Watanabe 3, Letícia de Castro Martins Ferreira 1
PMCID: PMC10962433  PMID: 38536977

Abstract

Air temperature is a climatic factor that affects the incidence of dengue, with effects varying according to time and space. We investigated the relationship between minimum air temperature and dengue incidence in Minas Gerais, Brazil, and evaluated the influence of socioeconomic and geographic variables on this relationship. This is a time series study with analysis conducted in three distinct stages: modeling using a distributed lag non-linear model, meta-analysis of models obtained, and meta-regression with geographic and socioeconomic data. Minimum temperature was a protective factor at extreme cold temperatures (RR = 0.65; 95%CI: 0.56-0.76) and moderate cold temperatures (RR = 0.71; 95%CI: 0.64-0.79), and a risk factor at moderate hot temperatures (RR = 1.15; 95%CI: 1.07-1.24), but not at extreme hot temperatures (RR = 1.1; 95%CI: 0.99-1.22). Heterogeneity of the models was high (I2 = 60%), which was also observed in meta-regression. Moderate and extreme cold temperatures have a protective effect, while moderate hot temperatures increase the risk. However, minimum air temperature does not explain the variability in the region, not even with the other variables in meta-regression.

Keywords: Dengue, Climate, Time Factors, Temperature

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