Abstract
Background
Atrial cardiomyopathy is associated with increased risk for future atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke. Several ECG-derived parameters have been reported to assess the risk for future ischemic stroke.
Purpose
To predict risk of future ischemic stroke by comparison of the novel parameter duration of the amplified digital sinus-p-wave (APWD; 80mm/mV; 175mm/sec) vs previously described p-wave indices and clinical risk factors (cerebrovascular disease (CVD), CHADS-VASc-score).
Methods
P-wave-derived parameters were measured on digital 12-lead-sinus-ECGs (recorded +/- 6 months from the clinical stroke event) using the software "ECG-Precision-Analysis V-1-2023".
and clinical CHA2DS2-VASc Score was assessed in 80 patients with ischemic stroke (no history of AF, no oral anticoagulation (OAC)) and compared to 80 control patients (without OAC, AF or ischemic stroke within the next five years).
Results
Patients with ischemic stroke vs control patients presented a higher CHA2DS2-VASc Score (3.7 vs 3.2, p=0.04), had more frequently heart failure (25% vs 13%, p=0.04) and cerebrovascular atherosclerotic disease with stenosis >40% ((22.5% vs 10%, p=0.032).
P-wave indices were as follows in patients who developed ischemic stroke within the next 12 months versus patients without stroke within a follow-up period of five years, respectively: APWD (144 vs 128ms, p<0.0001), non-amplified SPWD (118 vs 116ms, p=0.081), A-PTF-V1 (-4660 vs -3860µV*ms, p=0.005), durations and amplitudes of terminal-p-wave in V1 (A-Duration-V1 (83 vs 79ms, p=0.119), A-Amplitude-V1 (-50µV vs -50µV, p=0.028), and advanced interatrial block (aIAB in 25% vs 3.8% of patients; p<0.0001.
The novel ECG-derived parameter (duration of the amplified sinus-P-wave >140ms) was the best predictor for future ischemic stroke (accuracy: 74%, sensitivity and specificity: 61% and 86%, respectively; PPV: 82%; area under ROC: 0.776). Sensitivity and specificity of the SPWD, aPTFV1 and aIAB were significantly lower (SPWD>120ms: sensitivity 35% and specificity 78%, PPV: 61%; aPTFV1 ≤-5000µV*ms, accuracy: 61%, sensitivity 46%% and specificity 75%, PPV: 65%; aIAB: accuracy: 61%, sensitivity 25% and specificity 96%, PPV: 87%).
Conclusions
Among the currently identified ECG markers of atrial cardiomyopathy, the novel APWD and advanced interatrial block have the best predictive performances for diagnosis of persons at risk for ischemic stroke.
Comparison between ECG Parameters
Predictive Accuracy of Parameters