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. 2005 Aug 19;94(8):741–744. doi: 10.1111/j.1349-7006.2003.tb01512.x

Time course of carcinoembryonic antigen after resection of lung cancer: A predictor of recurrence

Tatsuya Yoshimasu 1,✉, Yozo Kokawa 1, Shoji Oura 1, Issei Hirai 1, Rie Sasaki 1, Hirokazu Tanino 1, Teruhisa Sakurai 1, Yoshitaka Okamura 1
PMCID: PMC11160278  PMID: 12901802

Abstract

We investigated whether the early postoperative time course of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level after resection of lung cancer could be used to predict patients' prognosis. Fifty‐three lung cancer patients were included in this study. Postoperative serum CEA levels were calculated by means of non‐linear least‐squares fitting to the equation C(t)=(C0‐Cp)exp(‐kt)+Cp, where C(t) is postoperative CEA level, t is days after surgery, C0 is CEA level at postoperative time 0, Cp is CEA level at plateau, and k is the rate constant of elimination. Postoperative CEA production (Pp) was calculated as Cp multiplied by k. Cp and Pp represent the numbers of residual tumor cells after surgery. More residual tumor cells yield higher values of Cp and Pp, and result in earlier recurrence. [Results] Kinetic parameters could be obtained for 30 patients whose preoperative CEA levels were sufficiently elevated. Cutoff levels as predictors for recurrence were 1.1 ng/ml for Cp and 0.9 ng/ml/day for Pp. The accuracy of prediction of recurrence using these cutoff levels was 79% with Cp and 89% with P p. A very poor prognosis was observed for patients with Pp over 0.9 ng/ ml/day. [Conclusion] Analysis of the time course of changes in CEA levels after resection of lung cancer appears to be useful for predicting patient prognosis. Cp and P p are very precise predictors of recurrence.

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