Editor—MacKenzie and Cooke say that the main documented indication for intrapartum caesarean section is fetal distress.1 Tuffnell et al looked at how the interval between the decision to perform an emergency caesarean section and the time of delivery affected fetal outcome.2 They concluded that a delayed decision to delivery time was an unusual cause of neonatal problems.
To help put these papers into context, we looked at the West Sussex births database of 152 284 births between 1980 and 1999. Over this period, the diagnosis of fetal distress has doubled from 6.4% to 13% of all births, and the percentage of caesarean sections has increased from 9.7% to 20.2% of all births. The proportion of caesarean sections where a diagnosis of fetal distress is recorded has increased from 15.4% to 19.3% of all caesarean sections. This implies that increasing numbers of caesarean sections are being performed for fetal distress. The doubling in the rate of diagnosis of fetal distress is unlikely to reflect a true increase in the incidence of this condition. There is no evidence that changes in maternal health or clinical care could explain such a dramatic rise. This implies that the diagnosis of fetal distress is imprecise.
We then investigated if the diagnosis of fetal distress was a valid test in predicting poor fetal outcome, which was defined as a one minute Apgar score of less than 5. From 1980 to 1999, only 18% of cases diagnosed with fetal distress subsequently had a poor fetal outcome (table). Over the same period, 74% of babies born with an Apgar score of less than 5 did not have a prepartum diagnosis of fetal distress. Therefore, the diagnosis of fetal distress is not a sensitive test for predicting poor fetal outcome (sensitivity 26%, specificity 92%). This is true even if we examine the most recent data for 1996-8 (sensitivity 30%, specificity 88%). The resulting excess of false positive results tends to encourage unnecessary caesarean sections.
Therefore, our analysis implies three things. Firstly, increasing numbers of caesarean sections are being performed for fetal distress. Secondly, the diagnosis of fetal distress is imprecise and a poor predictor of fetal outcome. Finally, the result is a tendency for unnecessary caesarean sections. Until firm and consistent diagnostic criteria for fetal distress are agreed, it is difficult to interpret studies looking at the decision to delivery time for emergency caesarean sections.
Table.
Prepartum diagnosis of fetal distress compared with Apgar score at 1 minute: West Sussex births data, 1980-99. Values are numbers of deliveries unless stated otherwise
| Apgar score <5 | Apgar score >5 | |
|---|---|---|
| No of deliveries: | ||
| Fetal distress diagnosed | 2553 | 11 469 |
| Fetal distress not diagnosed | 7284 | 130 978 |
| Sensitivity | 26.0% | |
| Specificity | 91.9% | |
| Positive predictive value | 18.2% | |
| Negative predictive value | 94.8% |
References
- 1.MacKenzie IZ, Cooke I. Prospective 12 month study of 30 minute decision to delivery intervals for “emergency” caesarean section. Observational case series. BMJ. 2001;322:1334–1335. doi: 10.1136/bmj.322.7298.1334. . (2 June.) [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 2.Tuffnell DJ, Wilkinson K, Beresford N. Interval between decision and delivery by caesarean section—are current standards achievable? BMJ. 2001;322:1330–1333. doi: 10.1136/bmj.322.7298.1330. . (2 June.) [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
