Editor—O'Brien and Ballard in their editorial outlined the approval by the National Institute for Clinical Excellence of cholinesterase inhibitors for the treatment of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease.1 We believe, however, there are limitations in the evidence of the efficacy of cholinesterase inhibitors that should be considered.
Pharmaceutical companies have sponsored most of the studies so far, which may lead to overestimation of the effect size.2 Many studies have been conducted in selected samples in secondary care, and the drugs may be less effective in the wider population. Most studies used “intention to treat” analyses (all randomised cases are included in the results, whether they completed the study or not) with “last observation carried forward” (including the last observation as the final result). Since people with dementia tend to get worse over time, those leaving a study early will carry forward artificially “better” results. People taking effective doses of cholinesterase inhibitors tend to drop out more often than those in the placebo arm, which leads to overestimation of the treatment effect.
The current standard measure of efficacy in dementia studies is the 70 point cognitive subsection of the Alzheimer's disease assessment scale (ADAS-cog). This and similar measures of cognition may miss some of the effects of the cholinesterase inhibitors and underestimate the true effects of these drugs. The current evidence suggests the numbers needed to treat for a 4 point improvement on the ADAS-cog subscale are four for donepezil, seven for galantamine, and 17 for rivastigmine.3
We agree that these drugs have led to a new mood of optimism, but more effective agents may be necessary to deliver the results.
References
- 1.O'Brien JT, Ballard CG. Drugs for Alzheimer's disease. BMJ. 2001;323:123–124. doi: 10.1136/bmj.323.7305.123. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 2.Koepp R, Miles SH. Meta-analysis of Tacrine for Alzheimer's disease: the influence of industry sponsors. JAMA. 1999;281:2287. doi: 10.1001/jama.281.24.2287. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 3.Warner JP and Butler R. Alzheimer's disease. In: Barton S, ed. Clinical evidence. Vol 5. London: BMJ Publishing Group, 2001.
