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. 2000 Feb 19;320(7233):515.

Fatigue and psychological distress

Statistics are improbable

Martin Bland 1
PMCID: PMC1127546  PMID: 10678880

Editor—Although this paper by Pawlikowska et al is nearly six years old, I read it only two months ago.1 I am surprised that there seem to be no letters or articles referring to it to point out that the analysis is flawed.

The authors report results from a general health questionnaire on a scale of 0 to 36. They provide a histogram for the distribution, which has a mean close to 14. The authors quote the mean scores for men and women as 24.7 and 26.2 respectively. They give confidence intervals for these means and for the difference between them. These means are both above the 90th centile of the distribution of general health questionnaire score that they show. They are clearly impossible.

Their fatigue score is also shown as a histogram. Possible values for observations are between 0 and 33, and the mean is also about 14. The means for men and women are quoted as 24.1 and 25.2, both of which seem to above the 95th centile. Again, they are clearly impossible.

There are several more subtle statistical problems: the histograms with unequal interval sizes shown as the same length on the graph; the statement that with such large numbers the distributions of responses to the fatigue and the general health questionnaires follow a normal distribution (the shape of the distribution is not related to the sample size); the ignoring of the cluster sampling; the use of two different scoring systems for the questionnaires. But the quoting of impossible means should be enough to show that this paper is flawed. Why has nobody noticed, in refereeing, editing, reading the paper (several authors have cited it but seem to accept it uncritically)?

Although two people are acknowledged for help with computing, nobody is acknowledged for help with statistics. The authors used SPSS. Did they include a missing data code without declaring it? A few 999s would produce the means they quote. Does this problem run through all the calculations?

I think the authors should be asked to explain this and, if necessary, carry out a reanalysis, with competent statistical advice. Potentially incorrect conclusions, based on faulty analysis, should not be allowed to remain in the literature to be cited uncritically by others.

References

  • 1.Pawlikowska T, Chalder T, Hirsch SR, Wallace P, Wright DJM, Wesley SC. Population based study of fatigue and psychological distress. BMJ. 1994;308:763–766. doi: 10.1136/bmj.308.6931.763. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
BMJ. 2000 Feb 19;320(7233):515.

Authors' reply

Trudie Chalder 1, Simon Wessely 1

Editor—Bland is, of course, correct, The means quoted in our 1994 paper are incompatible with the graphs presented. Our first thought was that this is related to the many and confusing ways of scoring the general health questionnaire and that we used two different scoring systems for the graphs and the analysis. This was, however, not the case. On returning to the original analysis and printouts, the means are quoted correctly. Somewhere between the analysis and the printed copy we have been attacked by gremlins.

Sadly, the passage of time, theft of a computer containing the original draft, and the fact that none of us can find the proofs anymore, mean that we have no idea when this happened. Like Professor Bland, we find it hard to believe that the usually infallible statistical reviewers at the BMJ could have overlooked this and wonder, totally ungallantly, if we can transfer the blame to the production side. We will probably never know.

For the record, the correct values are (original printouts available from us on request):

The mean Likert score for the general health questionnaire was 13.58 (95% confidence interval 13.48 to 13.69); in men 12.74 (12.58 to 12.89); in women 14.22 (14.08 to 14.36).

The mean Likert score for fatigue was 13.72 (95% confidence interval 13.65 to 13.79); in men 13.13 (13.03 to 13.24); in women 14.16 (14.06 to 14.25).

Nothing else in the paper has changed in any way, including the figures, and the conclusions are unaltered. We thank Bland for bringing this to our attention.


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